Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 12-19-15, 2:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 5 (10 teams)
Arizona vs New Mexico
Kickoff: 2:00PM EST
Spread: Arizona -9
O/U: 65
Arizona
Team Expected Points: 37
QB – Anu Soloman – 6,400
Analysis: Arizona comes into this matchup with the 15th ranked offense this season, averaging 494 yards per game with a relatively balanced attack. Aside from a few games with injury and relatively bad play, sophomore Anu Soloman has led the Wildcats offense at quarterback. When healthy, Soloman has shown some upside as he has posted close to 300 passing yards per game in nearly half the games he has started while showing some recent involvement in the rushing attack with 8, 11, and 10 carries over his last 3 games played. Soloman rushed for a season high 86 yards in his last game against Utah, but he also suffered a concussion that caused him to miss the season finale against Arizona State. The matchup here is excellent as Arizona is a solid favorite in this game with one of the highest O/U’s on the slate, and New Mexico’s 98th ranked defense is certainly one we would not mind targeting
Recommendation: Soloman is definitely priced down in this juicy matchup. Barring any pregame injury news, Soloman will appear in quite a few of my cash game lineups as he is one of our top quarterback plays on this slate.
WR – Cayleb Jones – 4,300, Johnny Jackson – 4,100
Analysis: Both Cayleb Jones and Johnny Jackson have been the leaders through the air for a crowded Wildcats receiving core this season. Four different players each have at least 40 receptions, 500 yards, and 4 touchdowns—so it has really been a crap shoot to predict who will be most productive. However, Jones has definitely been the most productive and consistent of the bunch as he leads the team with 722 receiving yards on 51 receptions. Jones has at least 5 catches in each of his last 6 games with 3 of his 4 touchdowns across that span. Jones has only one game with less than 2 receptions or 20 rushing yards this year, and that was 3 games ago against USC—a game in which his lone catch happened to be for a touchdown. Johnny Jackson is our pick for a flyer at that minimum price range. In the USC game where Jones was limited to only 1 catch for 4 yards, Jackson ended up tying his season-high in receptions with 8 for 89 yards. He is tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns this year at 5, however none of those have come within his past 4 games. Arizona should have success through the air against New Mexico’s 87th ranked pass defense, so we look for one of these Wildcat receivers to have a great game.
Recommendation: Both of these receivers are relatively cheap, however neither have a very high ceiling due to the variety of options in this offense. Cayleb Jones has been the most consistent of the bunch, making him our target for a cash game value play. Johnny Jackson is a GPP only target, as you would be looking for another 8 for 80 performances with a touchdown to really boost his numbers.
New Mexico
Team Expected Points: 28
RB – Jhurell Pressley – 4,600, Teriyon Gipson – 4,300
Analysis: The primary focus of the New Mexico offense this season has definitely been their rushing attack as the Lobos rank 8th in the country in rushing yards per game (246.6). Jhurell Pressley leads the charge on the ground with 135 carries for 846 yards and 11 touchdowns. Pressley has been on fire in recent weeks, rushing for 377 yards and 6 touchdowns on only 32 carries over his last 3 games. The carries are certainly a red flag, but his production and red zone usage has been extremely encouraging. Teriyon Gipson has also been heavily involved in this rushing attack. Leading up to their last game, Gipson had actually out-carried Pressley in 7 straight games. Another positive about Gipson is his usage through the air, as he has had at least 1 catch in every single game except for their last one, totaling 14 receptions for 158 yards compared to Pressley’s 0 receptions for 0 yards. A lot of people will look at Pressley’s recent games and roster him on this small slate for that fact alone—and in all reality, we could not fault them for that as he has looked magnificent. However, Gipson will be a sneaky play who has been even more heavily involved in this offense than Pressley has been during the season.
Recommendation: Pressley will be the more popular play, and rightfully so at this bargain price of only 4,600. He is certainly in play for your cash games and tournaments. Gipson at 4,300 is more of a sneaky tournament play that will most certainly separate you from the field due to recency bias associated with Pressley.
BYU vs Utah
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Utah -2.5
O/U: 52
BYU
Team Expected Points: 24.75
QB – Tanner Mangum – 5,800
Analysis: This game comes in with the lowest O/U on the slate, so we will not be mentioning a ton of fantasy value. Despite this O/U though, Tanner Mangum is actually in a relatively good spot going into this game. Mangum leads a BYU offense that has focused on its passing game all season, averaging over twice as many passing yards than rushing yards, ranking them 21st in the country with 294.9 passing yards per game. Mangum has put up consistent numbers all season as he finished with over 3000 passing yards and a 62% completion rate. Granted, the competition was not always much of a challenge—but Mangum has actually looked really good in his last 2 games as he led BYU to 50+ point performances in a couple of blowout wins against the above average secondary’s of Fresno State and Utah State. Utah has a solid defense, but their weakness most definitely lies in defending the pass as they rank 97th in the country on passing yards allowed compared to 6th in rushing yards allowed.
Recommendation: Mangum is certainly priced down The O/U is low, but Mangum still has 300+ yard upside with a good shot at a few touchdowns, making him viable for differentiation in your cash game lineups.
Utah
Team Expected Points: 27.25
RB – Joe Williams – 7,600
Analysis: Since taking over for Devontae Booker, Joe Williams has managed to garner a whopping 60 carries and 308 yards in only 2 games as a starter. It was obvious that Booker was a talented player in a favorable offensive system, but now it is even more obvious as we have seen Williams simply plugged in and having this much success due strictly to the system and not so much his raw talent. The matchup is not ideal against BYU’s 41st ranked rushing defense that has only allowed a hand full of 100+ yard rushers all season. While the matchup along with the low O/U may limit Williams’ touchdown upside, his usage alone should give him a solid chance at hitting values.
Recommendation: With the volume of carries that Williams should see, he is a very solid play. He has a very high floor which will make Williams a great fit on your cash and tournament rosters alike, but beware in tournaments, as he should be very highly owned.
Ohio vs Appalachian State
Kickoff: 5:30PM EST
Spread: Appalachian State -7.5
O/U: 55
Ohio
Team Expected Points: 23.75
RB – Daz’Mond Patterson – 3,500
Analysis: This Ohio team has had a very soft schedule, and their offense has still struggled on all facets of the offense this season. They have a relatively touch matchup against Appalachian State’s 12th ranked defense allowing only 318 total yards per game. However Appalachian State’s schedule hasn’t been the strongest either coming from a conference with only 4 winning teams. A relatively against-the-grain play that we like from Ohio this week despite their struggles would be Daz’mond Patterson. Patterson actually leads the team in touchdowns with 9 on only 102 carries. These touchdowns have come consistently all year as he has only 2 games without one, but his yardage totals have been abysmal with only 5 games above 50 yards. Patterson is certainly the secondary back behind AJ Ouellette, but he still been involved all season long, especially on scoring opportunities. The one thing to keep an eye on is his injury status, as Patterson sat out of their last game due to a leg injury suffered in Week 12.
Recommendation: Since you will be relying heavily on a touchdown for Patterson to come close to paying off, he will have to represent a tournament punt option only. Keep an eye on his injury status prior to rostering him as well.
WR – Sebastian Smith – 4,800, Jordan Reid – 4,600
Analysis: Sebastian Smith has been the most productive receiver this season for the Bobcats, leading the team with 61 receptions for 752 yards and 7 touchdowns. Smith has been relatively consistent this year with 8 games between 69-89 receiving yards and at least 4 receptions in each. However in recent weeks, we have seen Jordan Reid somewhat steal the show, especially in the touchdown department. Over his last 3 games, Reid has managed to find the end zone 4 times behind 12 receptions and 329 yards, including a 100+ yard outing against Ball State. If the Bobcats are playing behind as Vegas expects them to be, both Reid and Smith could get quite a few opportunities.
Recommendation: Smith will be your safer play over Reid, but for this slate 4,800 is actually a bit pricey as he would be the 6th most expensive receiver.
Appalachian State
Team Expected Points: 31.25
RB - Marcus Cox – 7,000, Jalin Moore – 3,900
Analysis: Appalachian State is a run-first offense averaging nearly 270 rushing yards per game (6th in FBS). The bulk of those yards have come from their elite running back Marcus Cox. Cox finished the regular season with 1261 total rushing yards, including games in which he eclipsed 100 rushing yards and 2 games with 150+ yards. Cox has had a commanding lead as the main running back all season as he has 219 carries for almost twice as many yards as the next guy in line. However, that next guy in line has really come alive in recent weeks. Freshman Jalin Moore got his opportunity 3 games ago against Idaho when Cox was sidelined. Moore proceeded to rush 27 times for 244 yards in that contest. This yardage total was more than the sum of all 6 games he had previously played in. Since that Idaho game, Cox has returned and Moore continues to see solid usage as he posted 104 yards and 1 touchdown on 13 carries followed by 84 yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 carries in his last game.
Recommendation: Marcus Cox is the main weapon in this offense and should be in line for the majority of the carries, however Jalin Moore will most certainly be used in some capacity, putting somewhat of a damper on Cox’s overall upside. At 7,000, Cox is priced slightly lower than some of the other top options but still too high for us to trust in a cash game. Moore at only 3,900 is very intriguing and makes for a great punt play in all formats.
San Jose State vs Georgia State
Kickoff: 7:00PM EST
Spread: San Jose State -3
O/U: 56
San Jose State
Team Expected Points: 29.25
RB – Tyler Ervin – 7,800
Analysis: Tyler Ervin is the clear workhorse of the San Jose State offense. Ervin has nearly triple the carries of anyone else on the team with 264 carries for a whopping 1469 yards and 13 touchdowns. In addition, Ervin is used extensively through the air as he has amassed 337 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns from a team-2nd 44 receptions. The tough part about Ervin is predicting his break-out performances. While he has rushed over 100 yards in 6 games, 2 of which were for 263 and 300 yards, Ervin has also failed to break the 75 rushing yard mark in 4 games. His usage through the air certainly helps make up for any inconsistencies we might see from him on the ground, especially on a site like DraftKings where the reception is so extremely valuable.
Recommendation: Ervin’s matchup is not bad, and we see the game script favoring him as San Jose State will want to keep the ball away from Georgia State’s pass-heavy offense. Ervin is pricey, but he is an elite tournament play and an acceptable cash game play if you can fit him in.
QB – Kenny Potter – 6,300
Analysis: After starting the season with very inconsistent numbers, we have seen the best of Kenny Potter in his last 2 games. Potter absolutely destroyed Hawaii as he passed for 312 yards and 3 touchdowns while rushing for 54 yards and another 2 touchdowns. Potter then followed that performance up with a season-high 336 passing yards and another 3 touchdowns against a tough Boise State defense in their last outing. Potter is a dual threat option with some solid upside in this matchup against Georgia State’s mediocre defense
Recommendation: While Potter has solid upside for tournament usage, it is tough to roster him at this elite price as we would rather play Freddie Knighten in cash game formats.
WR – Billy Freeman – 4,900
Analysis: Billy Freeman leads the Spartans in all categories of receiving from the tight end position this season. With 47 receptions for 581 yards and 6 touchdowns, Freeman is as good of a tight end option that you will be able to find. While he hasn’t shown to have huge games, Freeman has put up relatively consistent yardage numbers in addition to his 6 touchdowns. His last outing against Boise State was his best of the year with 7 receptions for 109 yards and a touchdown. While we don’t see San Jose passing a ton this week, Freeman has plenty of momentum and would be their first option should the Spartans find themselves down early.
Recommendation: Freeman is a bit pricey on DraftKings as he is lumped in with the other top receivers on this slate. We would not advise much exposure to him given the other options you have to choose from.
Georgia State
Team Expected Points: 26.75
QB – Nick Arbuckle – 5,900
Analysis: Georgia State has what looks to be a tough fantasy matchup facing the San Jose pass defense allowing only 153.6 yards per game this season, good for 2nd in the FBS. Despite their ranking though, we have to call out that this stat is reflective of a schedule that lacks any real passing threats and a number of game scripts in which teams had just no need to pass on them. Nick Arbuckle for Georgia State has been extremely productive this season as he has only thrown less than 299 yards in a game once while posting 9 multi-touchdown games as he has accounted for 4160 passing yards and 26 passing touchdowns in the regular season. Arbuckle is averaging 373 passing yards per game in his last 7 outings, and we are projecting him to break the 300-yard mark yet again this week despite the seemingly tough matchup.
Recommendation: Arbuckle is a high potential play with as much upside as any other quarterback due to his passing ability. He comes in as a solid value and would make for a very nice QB2 play in any format.
WR – Penny Hart – 5,900, Robert Davis – 5,200
Analysis: Penny Hart is the second highest priced receiver on the slate here, mostly due to the offense he resides in as Georgia State ranks 8th in the country in passing yards per game. Hart has been their primary weapon as he finished the regular season with 71 receptions for 1095 yards and 8 touchdowns. He has been very hot as of late also, catching at least 5 balls and a touchdown in each of his last 4 games. Robert Davis has also shown potential this year as he has had some huge games in addition to making it into the end zone on 6 occasions. Davis has the size advantage at 6’3 comparted to Hart at 5’9, so red zone looks are certainly to be expected.
Recommendation: Both Hart and Davis are in play, with Hart being the safer of the 2 due to his consistency with both targets and touchdowns. Use Hart in all formats and Davis more so in tournaments.
WR – Keith Rucker – 3,600
Analysis: Rucker one of the top tight ends this week, as he has been one of the most productive at his position this season. Had he not missed a couple of games, Rucker would be much closer to the top of the rankings in terms of yardage as a tight end (522 yards). We saw Rucker explode a couple of games ago against Troy as he hauled in 10 receptions for 154 yards. He then followed that up with a much more subdued stat line of 3 receptions for 48, but with a touchdown to really help his fantasy production on the week. Rucker has 6 touchdowns on the year with 40 or more yards in each of his last 6 games. Given the pass-heavy offensive system he is in, Rucker should see plenty of opportunities to contribute again this week.
Recommendation: Rucker’s price is way down here at only 3,600. He is in a very favorable situation, so we have him worth a shot in any format for salary relief on this relatively tight slate.
Arkansas State vs Louisiana Tech
Kickoff: 9:00PM EST
Spread: Louisiana Tech -2
O/U: 66
Arkansas State
Team Expected Points: 33
QB – Fredi Knighten – 7,100
Analysis: With this game sporting the highest O/U on the slate, we would recommend taking a good look at the fantasy options available as it would be wise to gain some exposure here. Arkansas State has not been shy to put up points this season as they average the 10th most points per game at 41.0. Their Sun Belt schedule has been an absolute cake walk, but that many points per game has certainly gained both ours and Vegas’s attention. Fredi Knighten leads the Red Wolves offense at quarterback. Knighten has shown the ability to make plays in both facets of the game as he can throw for 367 yards and 5 touchdowns (see NMST game) or he can run the ball 14 times for 72 yards (see ULL game). Knighten started slow this season with some rough outings and a nagging groin injury causing him to miss 3 games, but since his return Knighten has 216 passing yards and 44 rushing yards per game with 17 passing touchdowns and 4 rushing touchdowns during that 7-game stretch. Louisiana Tech is tough on the run, but they allow the 112th most passing yards per game—so the matchup is very favorable for Knighten.
Recommendation: Fredi Knighten is the second priciest quarterback on the slate. Given his favorable matchup and high O/U, Knighten is worth some exposure—however, we would prefer both Driskel and Soloman to him in most cases.
WR – Tres Houston – 3,900
Analysis: Tres Houston has been a touchdown machine for the Red Wolves this season as he has almost as many receiving touchdowns alone as the rest of the team combined. Houston has only failed to find the end zone twice in his last 8 games, one of which happened to be his last outing against a very weak Texas State defense. Houston put up one of his worst performances last week, but he still managed to have a decent yardage number at 62 from his 3 receptions. Houston has a catch of at least 36 yards in each of his last 3 games and has shown significant upside after his 155-yard and 3-touchdown explosion against New Mexico State 2 games ago.
Recommendation: Houston is more of a boom or bust play, making for a great stack with Knighten in tournament formats. His price is very affordable, so it will not take much at all for him to hit 5x value.
Louisiana Tech
Team Expected Points: 35
QB – Jeff Driskel – 7,300
Analysis: Jeff Driskel has been a solid performer this season for the Bulldogs. Driskel managed to pass for over 3500 yards with 24 touchdowns this season in addition to netting 307 rushing yards and 5 early season rushing touchdowns. His last outing was huge in terms of yardage, but Driskel struggled with ball security as he turned it over just as many times as he found the end zone (3 TD, 3 INT). While the matchup here is favorable in terms of yardage against Arkansas State’s 96th ranked pass defense, they also have picked off opposing quarterbacks 26 times—good for 1st in all of college football. Driskel has shown that he can put up big passing numbers as he crossed 300 yards on 7 occasions this season, but we have seen from his Florida days that he can certainly struggle with ball security (10 INT’s to 9 TD’s last season).
Recommendation: If Jeff Driskel can hold on to the ball, he should find some solid success here. He is the top priced quarterback, but has shown the clear potential to meet and exceed the value. He should be a popular option in all formats and would make for a solid tournament stack with one of his receivers
WR – Trent Taylor – 6,700
Analysis: Trent Taylor has been one of the most productive receivers in football this season. He ranks T-6th in receptions with 89, resulting in 1133 yards and 8 touchdowns. That kind of production from a receiver on a team that also has a 1000+ yard rusher means he is most certainly their go-to option. However, that also means that Taylor is destined for some rough outings if the rushing game gets rolling. We have seen these rough outings more than we would like as of late, as Taylor failed to reach 20 yards in 2 of his last 3 games. Take those games off the stat sheet, and Taylor is averaging a very healthy 110 yards and 8.3 receptions per game. He had a nice bounce back in their last outing, catching 11 passes for 102 yards and a touchdown against Southern Mississippi. With the O/U and close spread in this game, we expect Taylor to see some solid targets with a ton of upside due to his potential for a huge number of catches.
Recommendation: Taylor has one of the highest ceilings of any receiver on the slate, however his floor is extremely low as well considering what we saw in a couple of his recent games. He is the most expensive receiver on the slate by a long shot, but he also is the clear top guy in our projections. Try to fit him into your lineups if you can, as we have highlighted a number of values to take advantage of.
RB – Kenneth Dixon – 8,100
Analysis: Kenneth Dixon has shown that he can be an absolute monster fantasy play on multiple occasions this season. He started the season with 3 of his first 4 games over 100 yards, including a couple of 160+ yard outings with multiple touchdowns in each. Dixon then had a mid-season ankle injury that definitely slowed down his fantasy production for a few weeks. on the first Saturday in November, Dixon showed us his potential yet again as he shattered North Texas for 195 yards and 6 touchdowns. Dixon not only has 968 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns in only 10 games this season, but he also has amassed 28 receptions for another 358 yards and 5 touchdowns. Dixon’s health has definitely been a concern most of the season, and we saw what an unhealthy Dixon could look like trying to run the ball in his last game. However, with 3 weeks to rest, Dixon should be back to 100% with this offense centering around him once again.
Recommendation: Dixon is certainly pricey as he tops the slate at any position, but he has the absolute highest upside of any other player this weekend. Pending any pregame injury uncertainty, we would recommend getting some exposure to Dixon in all formats as he could very easily be that guy you just can’t win without rostering this week.
