DFS Roundtable: Quarterback Consistency

Ranking and discussing our top three safest options at the QB position.

Consistency at Quarterback - Quarterback play this year has been all over the place and finding the right one to play each week in DFS can be a struggle at times. Looking at this week, how would you rank your top 3 quarterbacks as far as safety (floor)? (Thinking more of a cash game player here, looking for your top 3 safest options).

Phil Alexander: 1. Russell Wilson - Prior to last week's game going way off-script, Wilson had scored at least 19.4 fantasy points in every game since Week 7.
2. Philip Rivers - As mentioned in this week's stacking roundtable, the Jets bleed fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and the Chargers playoff lives are on the line.
3. Tom Brady - Recent boxscores may not paint him as a safe option, but this is the Patriots first home game after three straight on the road. They host Buffalo as 12.5-point favorites with an implied team total nearing 30 points -- ideal conditions for a cash game quarterback.
3A. Drew Brees - The ceiling hasn't been there for Brees in tournaments, but his baseline projection in a potentially high-scoring game against Atlanta is in the 18-20 fantasy point range.

Justin Howe: 1. Dak Prescott - His salary has dipped too far. Yes, Ezekiel Elliott returns this week, but Elliott has a far more positive impact on Prescott's fantasy value than negative. Over his 30 career games, Prescott averages nearly 25 points per game with Elliott on the field, compared to less than 14 without him. The Dallas offense is relatively bland and toothless without the threat of their dynamic young runner, so Prescott's efficiency and touchdown opportunity should bounce back quickly. Essentially, he holds the same DFS value as when he cost us $6,800-$7,200 early in the season (and paid off nearly every time).

2. Russell Wilson - Wilson's passing volume leaves something be desired - he's attempted 34 passes for fewer in 5 of his last 6 games. Of course, he offers the stabilizing boost of 3-9 weekly rushing points, which is always nice. And while he's grown a little touchdown-dependent (and his Seahawks only project to 21 points), it's good to note that their lack of a real run game ensures Wilson will be responsible for most (or all) of their touchdown outlook.

3. Drew Brees - Brees has only topped 18 DraftKings points twice over his last 8 games, but the stars seem aligned for him to produce in Week 16. The Falcons run defense is a fairly stout unit that's done well against productive lead backs, and Vegas projects a relatively tight matchup here. If this game is close in the second half, Brees will likely register at least 35-40 attempts, which should easily drag him to cash value at this discount.

Justin Bonnema: Tom Brady – Brady has seven games of at least 22.5 DraftKings’ points this season, and only three with fewer than 16.7. That’s the definition of a floor quarterback. His price this week on both sites is more than affordable, even though he’s’ the second most expensive at the position. I know there is some fear that the Patriots will run all over the Bills, but I like the Bills to keep pace while fighting for their playoff lives. Fire up Touchdown Tom and don’t overthink it.  

Russell Wilson – He’s going to make everyone’s list thanks to the Seahawks inability to run the ball, their inability to defend the run, and the fact that he’s their entire offense. His ceiling also puts him in play as a tournament option nearly every week, and especially this week. 

Drew Brees – The Saints have the best ground game in football, but they also target their running backs a ton in the passing attack. Like both Phil and Justin have noted, the ceiling for Brees is somewhat low thanks to their ability to march deep into opponent’s territory and score on the ground from short yardage situations. But his floor, especially at home, is trustworthy. 
 
Chris Feery: 1. Russell Wilson - The Seahawks will have no interest in engaging in a ground-and-pound affair with a Cowboys team that has a well-rested Ezekiel Elliott at its disposal. Wilson will be airing it out, and he gets to pick apart a secondary that has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in six of the last seven games.  

2. Philip Rivers - Prior to falling off a cliff against the Chiefs last week, Rivers was one of the hottest and most consistent signal callers in the league. He’ll return to a high level of performance against the leaky secondary of the Jets.  

3. Tom Brady - Phil nailed it. The Patriots project out as one of the highest-scoring teams of the week, and they are huge favorites for a home tilt against the Bills. I’m expecting a Bills team that’s still alive in the hunt for the playoffs to keep things interesting, and that will afford Brady with even more opportunities to air it out.  

John Mamula: 1. Russell Wilson -Prior to last week, Wilson had been the hottest quarterback in the NFL with ten multiple-touchdown performances this season. The Cowboys defense will not slow him down. 

2. Dak Prescott- Agree 100% with Justin as Dak Prescott's salary is severely underpriced across the industry. Prescott is the low priced quarterback that I prefer to build around in cash games this week. 

3. Drew Brees- Brees at home in the highest total of the week. Sign me up. Brees has thrown for multiple touchdowns in each of his past three games versus the Falcons. 

James Brimacombe: 1. Cam Newton - Surprised more weren't on Newton this week as he is in a smash spot against the Buccaneers this week. The Panthers are at home and are 10 point favorites and are fighting for playoff positioning. Newton is also coming off a 4 touchdown performance against the Packers last week and rushed the ball a season high 14 times for 58 yards. With all the MVP talk of Russell Wilson, Tom Brady and Carson Wentz, Newton has put together a strong case for it as well as he has the stats to back it up and his team is enjoying a 10-4 record. I am looking at Newton as the safest option at quarterback this week as he has one of the safest built in floors with his rushing ability but at the same time has such a high ceiling.

2. Russell Wilson - With no running game to speak of and likely a back and forth higher scoring game this week against the Cowboys, it will be Wilson that is looked on to provide the offensive scoring once again. With last weeks disaster of a game against the Rams, we might see Wilson's ownership drop slightly but before that game he had 4 straight games were he had 3 touchdown performances. I think Wilson has another 3+ touchdown performance in this one and it becomes one of the higher scoring games on the week.

3. Tom Brady - Rex Burkhead accounted for 5 rushing touchdowns over the past 4 weeks and with him out we could see Brady with more short red zone chances at some additional touchdown passes. The Bills will be hungry to make this game competitive as they are fighting for the last playoff spot and should be able to put up some points on the Patriots and doing so would lead to Brady putting up some points on his own end.



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