DFS Roundtable: Win and You're In Games

Picking Players from Win and You're in Games.

Picking Players from Win and you're in games - Baltimore, Tennessee, and Atlanta are all in win and your in scenarios on Sunday. They also all play in the afternoon games so they won't have the luxary of knowing ahead of time the outcomes of the teams below them. Looking at the three win-and-you're-in teams this week, what stack (QB/WR or other) do you like best?

Phil Alexander: I'd look to stack Derrick Henry with Tennessee's defense. The Titans are up against the Jaguars, who have clinched the AFC South and are locked into the third seed. Jacksonville will host a Wild Card round game regardless of this week's outcome, and even though it's early in the week to know for sure, the Vegas line (TEN -6) indicates the Jaguars are expected to rest starters on both sides of the ball. 

The fantasy community has been waiting to see what Henry would look like with a 20-carry workload, and should finally get their wish. DeMarco Murray has a sprained LCL, and while Mike Mularkey refused to rule him out on Tuesday, it would make little sense for Tennessee to turn to a hobbled Murray (3.48 yards per carry without a sprained knee) when they have Henry (4.68 yards per carry) ready to carry the load in a must-win game. Henry has seen at least 14 carries four times in his career. In those four games, he has posted rushing lines of 16-60-1, 15-65-1, 14-92-1, and 19-131-1, respectively. 

While DraftKings saw Murray's potential to scratch coming and raised Henry's price by $1,000, FanDuel actually lowered Henry's salary by $200 from Week 16. If you play on both sites, getting more exposure to Henry on FanDuel is a no-brainer given the 1/2 PPR scoring and emphasis on touchdowns, but he's still a top-value play on DraftKings as well.

As for the Titans defense, they're at home, heavily favored, and quite possibly playing for their postseason lives against Chad Henne. They correlate perfectly with a big game from Henry.

John Mamula: Phil nailed it! If DeMarco Murray is inactive and the Jaguars rest their starters, we have a perfect storm for a Derrick Henry breakout game. Henry correlates perfectly with the Titans defense as the Jaguars are expected to be running a vanilla offense this week. 

My second favorite stack of the "win-and-your-in" games is Alex Collins with the Ravens defense. Collins has received at least 17 touches in each of his past six games. As a 10-point favorite, the Ravens will be able to control the clock and grind out a victory against the Bengals, who have allowed the second-most team rushing yards this season. 

James Brimacombe: Hard to argue with the Henry/Titans Defense and Collins/Ravens Defense plays from Phil and John as those are two stacks I will also be looking at in my GPP play. As far as a QB/WR stack I will go back to the well with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones as I think the two will be in playoff form and ready to turn all the 2017 wrongs into rights this week. Back in Week 9 against the Panthers, Julio Jones saw 12 targets for 6 catches and 118 yards. I see the same type of volume for him this week as he will be Ryan's go to target no matter what the score is in this game. Ryan himself has struggled this season not have a game where he has thrown 3 touchdowns. His best game so far was in Week 9 against the Panthers where he threw for 313 yards and a pair of touchdowns. 

Chris Feery: My colleagues have already mentioned the top options to key in on - Collins/Ravens, Henry/Titans, Ryan/Jones - but one of these options is the most appealing to me. I’m also very intrigued by what Henry will be able to do with a bigger workload than normal against the Jaguars. We’ll have to wait and see how news develops as the week moves along, but if Murray is out and the Jaguars are definitely resting starters, Henry moves into the neighborhood of must play territory. A ground and pound gameplan could very well be in the cards for the Titans as they look to lock down the sixth seed, and the defense could be in for a solid day against the Jaguars second stringers.   

Justin Howe: Henry/Titans is the answer here; he’ll be mega-chalk, and the defense should thoroughly control Chad Henne’s game. But I also like the recent trends for the Baltimore passing game. We forget that only Drew Brees has thrown more passes over the last 33 weeks of football than Joe Flacco. And given how awful his early season was, few have noticed that he’s thrown for 269+ yards in 3 of his last 4 games. His rapport with Mike Wallace has returned, and while they haven’t teamed up for a touchdown in six weeks, they still look like the second-best passing game pair of the three games given. The best, of course, is Matt Ryan/Julio Jones, but they’re awfully expensive for such mediocre week-to-week producers.


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