Something about typical fantasy rankings has been bothering me lately. By listing all relevant players in order of draft desirability, we still don't really have anything actionable until we add a denominator of ADP. If I tell you a player is my #5 quarterback, that doesn't tell you whether I would recommend drafting him or not. When you add the dimension of ADP, it becomes clear right away who my rankings recommend targeting and who my rankings recommend avoiding. This leads to an experiment idea of rethinking rankings. Instead of ranking players by draft desirability (or projected end of year finish), why not rank players by desirability of drafting them at ADP? This table will show you the rough ADP of a player, and where I would consider drafting the player. This ranking should help when prioritizing targets pre-draft and understanding the next best outcomes when targeted players go off the board ahead of you. Any and all feedback welcome!
Note: Industry ADP tends to lag behind actual drafts, so don't feel wedded to the ADP or estimation when a particular one is worth drafting. Your league might see these players go off of the board earlier and require earlier picks, but he relative order of the attractiveness of drafting at ADP (whatever that adjusts to in your league) should be relatively accurate.
|ADP||Should Go in|
|1||Keenan Allen||SD||Late 2nd||Late 1st|
|2||T.Y. Hilton||IND||Mid 3rd||Mid 2nd|
|5||Donte Moncrief||IND||5th||Late 3rd|
|6||A.J. Green||CIN||Mid-Late First||Top 5|
|7||Willie Snead IV||NO||10th||6th/7th|
|13||Brandin Cooks||NO||2nd/3rd||Mid 2nd|
|19||Sammy Watkins||BUF||Early 3rd||Late 2nd|
|20||Marvin Jones Jr||DET||7th/8th||5th/6th|
|23||Amari Cooper||OAK||2nd/3rd||Late 2nd|
|31||Odell Beckham||NYG||Top 3||Top 3|
|32||Julio Jones||ATL||Top 3||Top 3|
|33||DeAndre Hopkins||HOU||Mid 1st||Mid 1st|
|34||Dez Bryant||DAL||Late 1st||Late 1st|
|36||Brandon Marshall||NYJ||Mid 2nd||Mid 2nd|
|37||Alshon Jeffery||CHI||Late 2nd||Late 2nd|
|38||Demaryius Thomas||DEN||Mid 3rd||Mid 3rd|
|39||Jarvis Landry||MIA||Late 3rd||Late 3rd|
|50||Sammie Coates Jr||PIT||11th/12th||11th/12th|
|60||Mike Evans||TB||Late 2nd||2nd/3rd|
|63||Jordy Nelson||GB||Early 2nd||3rd|
Notes: Michael Floyd, Donte Moncrief, and Eric Decker's artifically low ADPs allow early RB drafters to get away with it. Rookies Michael Thomas and Sterling Shepard present starter upside at a bench price. Most wide receivers going in the early rounds present reasonable ADP vs value propositions, which makes Mike Evans (inconsistent play), Kelvin Benjamin (conditioning), and Jordy Nelson (knees) easy to avoid. Washington, Indianapolis, Cleveland, New Orleans, and Seattle wide receivers are undervalued almost across the board, and only Indianapolis is lacking an undervalued quarterback to match.