ADP Desirability Rankings: TE

Rethinking tight end rankings to order players by how desirable they are at current ADP

Something about typical fantasy rankings has been bothering me lately. By listing all relevant players in order of draft desirability, we still don't really have anything actionable until we add a denominator of ADP. If I tell you a player is my #5 quarterback, that doesn't tell you whether I would recommend drafting him or not. When you add the dimension of ADP, it becomes clear right away who my rankings recommend targeting and who my rankings recommend avoiding. This leads to an experiment idea of rethinking rankings. Instead of ranking players by draft desirability (or projected end of year finish), why not rank players by desirability of drafting them at ADP? This table will show you the rough ADP of a player, and where I would consider drafting the player. This ranking should help when prioritizing targets pre-draft and understanding the next best outcomes when targeted players go off the board ahead of you. Any and all feedback welcome!

Note: Industry ADP tends to lag behind actual drafts, so don't feel wedded to the ADP or estimation when a particular one is worth drafting. Your league might see these players go off of the board earlier and require earlier picks, but he relative order of the attractiveness of drafting at ADP (whatever that adjusts to in your league) should be relatively accurate.

   ADPShould Go In
1 Jordan Reed WAS 3rd/4th 2nd/3rd
2 Martellus Bennett NE 10th 7th/8th
3 Dwayne Allen IND 11th/12th 9th
4 Antonio Gates SD 9th 7th/8th
5 Eric Ebron DET 13th 11th/12th
6 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB 15th+ 15th+
7 Cameron Brate TB 15th+ 15th+
8 Clive Walford OAK 15th+ 15th+
9 Jared Cook GB 15th+ 15th+
10 Julius Thomas JAX 8th/9th 8th/9th
11 Tyler Eifert CIN 7th/8th 7th/8th
12 Vance McDonald SF 15th+ 15th+
13 Gary Barnidge CLE 8th 8th/9th
14 Greg Olsen CAR 4th/5th 5th/6th
15 Zach Ertz PHI 8th/9th 10th
16 Zach Miller CHI 13th 15th+
17 Travis Kelce KC 5th/6th 7th/8th
18 Coby Fleener NO 6th 8th/9th
19 Delanie Walker TEN 6th 8th/9th
20 Jimmy Graham SEA 10th 14th/15th
21 Rob Gronkowski NE Mid-Late 1st Mid 2nd
22 Jason Witten DAL 11th 15th+

Notes: Your mission is clear at tight end. Get Jordan Reed in third or fourth and one of Gates/Bennett/Allen in the 8th-12th range, or get two of the 8th-12th round tight ends. Eric Ebron is a slight value in the Detroit offense with his ankle injury, and Tyler Eifert could pay off over time at his reasonable price. Other targets if you get repeatedly sniped would be Julius Thomas, Zach Ertz, and Gary Barnidge at prices we can stomach,

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