ADP Desirability Rankings: RB

Rethinking running back rankings to order players by how desirable they are at current ADP

Something about typical fantasy rankings has been bothering me lately. By listing all relevant players in order of draft desirability, we still don't really have anything actionable until we add a denominator of ADP. If I tell you a player is my #5 quarterback, that doesn't tell you whether I would recommend drafting him or not. When you add the dimension of ADP, it becomes clear right away who my rankings recommend targeting and who my rankings recommend avoiding. This leads to an experiment idea of rethinking rankings. Instead of ranking players by draft desirability (or projected end of year finish), why not rank players by desirability of drafting them at ADP? This table will show you the rough ADP of a player, and where I would consider drafting the player. This ranking should help when prioritizing targets pre-draft and understanding the next best outcomes when targeted players go off the board ahead of you. Any and all feedback welcome!

Note: Industry ADP tends to lag behind actual drafts, so don't feel wedded to the ADP or estimation when a particular one is worth drafting. Your league might see these players go off of the board earlier and require earlier picks, but he relative order of the attractiveness of drafting at ADP (whatever that adjusts to in your league) should be relatively accurate.

   ADPShould be taken in
1 Frank Gore IND 6th/7th 4th/5th
2 Bilal Powell NYJ 11th 7th/8th
3 Charles Sims TB 9th 7th
4 Jerick McKinnon MIN 14th 10th
5 Rashad Jennings NYG 7th/8th 6th/7th
6 Christine Michael SEA 12th/13th 10th/11th
7 Devontae Booker DEN 12th/13th 10th/11th
8 Darren Sproles PHI 12th/13th 10th/11th
9 DeAndre Washington OAK 13th/14th 11th/12th
10 Spencer Ware KC 15th 12th
11 Jeremy Hill CIN 4th/5th 4th
12 Giovani Bernard CIN 6th/7th 6th
13 C.J. Spiller NO 15th+ 11th/12th
14 Alfred Morris DAL 14th/15th 11th/12th
15 LeGarrette Blount NE 10th/11th 9th/10th
16 James White NE 12th/13th 11th/12th
17 James Starks GB 13th 11th/12th
18 Andre Ellington ARI 15th+ 13th/14th
19 Chris Thompson WAS 15th+ 13th/14th
20 Shaun Draughn SF 15th+ 14th/15th
21 Todd Gurley LA Early 1st Early 1st
22 David Johnson ARI Mid 1st Mid 1st
23 Ezekiel Elliott DAL Late First Late First
24 Le'Veon Bell PIT 1st/2nd 1st/2nd
25 Mark Ingram II NO 2nd/3rd 2nd/3rd
26 C.J. Anderson DEN 3rd 3rd
27 Jonathan Stewart CAR 5th 5th
28 Duke Johnson Jr CLE 6th 6th
29 Danny Woodhead SD 6th/7th 6th/7th
30 DeAngelo Williams PIT 7th 7th
31 Theo Riddick DET 11th 11th
32 Arian Foster HOU 6th/7th 6th/7th
33 Shane Vereen NYG 14th 14th
34 Isaiah Crowell CLE 10th 10th/11th
35 Chris Ivory JAX 7th/8th 8th/9th
36 T.J. Yeldon JAX 7th/8th 8th/9th
37 Tevin Coleman ATL 10th 10th/11th
38 Doug Martin TB 2nd/3rd Mid 3rd
39 LeSean McCoy BUF 3rd Late 3rd
40 Carlos Hyde SF 4th 5th
41 DeVonta Freeman ATL 2nd Late 2nd
42 Jamaal Charles KC 2nd Late 2nd
43 Lamar Miller HOU 2nd 1st/2nd
44 Ameer Abdullah DET 7th/8th 9th/10th
45 Eddie Lacy GB 2nd/3rd 3rd/4th
46 Thomas Rawls SEA Late 3rd Late 4th
47 Latavius Murray OAK 3rd/4th 4th/5th
48 Jeremy Langford CHI 5th 6th/7th
49 Matt Jones WAS 5th/6th 7th
50 Jay Ajayi MIA 8th 10th
51 Derrick Henry TEN 8th/9th 11th/12th
52 Meldon Gordon SD 6th 7th/8th
53 Adrian Peterson MIN Late First 2nd
54 Demarco Murray TEN 4th/5th 6th/7th
55 C.J. Prosise SEA 14th 15th+
56 Matt Forte NYJ 4th 6th/7th
57 Ryan Mathews PHI 5th/6th 9th/10th

Notes: High ceiling backups (McKinnon, Booker, Michael, Ware, Washington, Morris), receiving backs (Sims, Powell, Spiller, White, Thompson, Draughn, Bernard, Sproles, White), and a few aging starters (Gore, Jennings) lead the way. Lots of early draft picks are "par" picks - that is, they cost about what they should - which should encourage you to take at least one running back early if you believe in them. Touches by default backs (Jones, Langford, LMurray, Hill, Mathews) are generally overrated in my estimation, and the second round looks more like a wide receiver round than a running back round in PPR leagues.

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