ADP Desirability Rankings: QB

Rethinking quarterback rankings to order players by how desirable they are at current ADP

Something about typical fantasy rankings has been bothering me lately. By listing all relevant players in order of draft desirability, we still don't really have anything actionable until we add a denominator of ADP. If I tell you a player is my #5 quarterback, that doesn't tell you whether I would recommend drafting him or not. When you add the dimension of ADP, it becomes clear right away who my rankings recommend targeting and who my rankings recommend avoiding. This leads to an experiment idea of rethinking rankings. Instead of ranking players by draft desirability (or projected end of year finish), why not rank players by desirability of drafting them at ADP? This table will show you the rough ADP of a player, and where I would consider drafting the player. This ranking should help when prioritizing targets pre-draft and understanding the next best outcomes when targeted players go off the board ahead of you. Any and all feedback welcome!

Note: Industry ADP tends to lag behind actual drafts, so don't feel wedded to the ADP or estimation when a particular one is worth drafting. Your league might see these players go off of the board earlier and require earlier picks, but he relative order of the attractiveness of drafting at ADP (whatever that adjusts to in your league) should be relatively accurate.

   ADPShould be taken in
1 Robert Griffin III III CLE 15th+ 12th
2 Joe Flacco BAL 15th+ 13th
3 Matthew Stafford DET 10th/11th 9th/10th
4 Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ 13th/14th 13th
5 Drew Brees NO 5th/6th 5th/6th
6 Tom Brady NE 7th 7th
7 Philip Rivers SD 9th 9th
8 Kirk Cousins WAS 10th 10th/11th
9 Tyrod Taylor BUF 11th/12th 13th/14th
10 Marcus Mariota TEN 12th 13th/14th
11 Carson Palmer ARI 7th 8th/9th
12 Russell Wilson SEA 4th/5th 5th/6th
13 Ryan Tannehill MIA 12th 15th+
14 Derek Carr OAK 9th 11th/12th
15 Cam Newton CAR 3rd 4th
16 Alex Smith KC 14th 15th+
17 Jameis Winston TB 9th/10th 13th/14th
18 Eli Manning NYG 8th 11th/12th
19 Andy Dalton CIN 10th/11th 15th+
20 Matt Ryan ATL 11th/12th 15th+
21 Blake Bortles JAX 7th 11th/12th
22 Andrew Luck IND 4th 6th/7th
23 Aaron Rodgers GB 3rd/4th 6th
24 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 5th/6th 9th/10th

Notes: Among early quarterbacks, Drew Brees has the best ADP desirability, followed by Russell Wilson. Cam Newton isn't terrible, but should only be selected when your league is slow playing quarterback. Tom Brady and Philip Rivers are both great values in the QB8-12 range, and Matthew Stafford leads the QB13-18 range. QB Streamers who like to really take the gas tank to E should be very pleased to get Robert Griffin III III (at Philadelphia), Joe Flacco (vs. Buffalo), or Ryan Fitzpatrick (at CIN) to lead off their season after just about every meaningful player has been taken. Ben Roethlisberger, Blake Bortles, and Tony Romo are being taken near their ceiling, and Matt Ryan is below the Flacco/Fitzpatrick/Griffin tier, so even at a discount from his usual price, he's not a target.

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