Something about typical fantasy rankings has been bothering me lately. By listing all relevant players in order of draft desirability, we still don't really have anything actionable until we add a denominator of ADP. If I tell you a player is my #5 quarterback, that doesn't tell you whether I would recommend drafting him or not. When you add the dimension of ADP, it becomes clear right away who my rankings recommend targeting and who my rankings recommend avoiding. This leads to an experiment idea of rethinking rankings. Instead of ranking players by draft desirability (or projected end of year finish), why not rank players by desirability of drafting them at ADP? This table will show you the rough ADP of a player, and where I would consider drafting the player. This ranking should help when prioritizing targets pre-draft and understanding the next best outcomes when targeted players go off the board ahead of you. Any and all feedback welcome!
Note: Industry ADP tends to lag behind actual drafts, so don't feel wedded to the ADP or estimation when a particular one is worth drafting. Your league might see these players go off of the board earlier and require earlier picks, but he relative order of the attractiveness of drafting at ADP (whatever that adjusts to in your league) should be relatively accurate.
|ADP||Should be taken in|
|1||Robert Griffin III III||CLE||15th+||12th|
Notes: Among early quarterbacks, Drew Brees has the best ADP desirability, followed by Russell Wilson. Cam Newton isn't terrible, but should only be selected when your league is slow playing quarterback. Tom Brady and Philip Rivers are both great values in the QB8-12 range, and Matthew Stafford leads the QB13-18 range. QB Streamers who like to really take the gas tank to E should be very pleased to get Robert Griffin III III (at Philadelphia), Joe Flacco (vs. Buffalo), or Ryan Fitzpatrick (at CIN) to lead off their season after just about every meaningful player has been taken. Ben Roethlisberger, Blake Bortles, and Tony Romo are being taken near their ceiling, and Matt Ryan is below the Flacco/Fitzpatrick/Griffin tier, so even at a discount from his usual price, he's not a target.
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