2015 Post-Draft Bloom 100

A ranking of the rookies for dynasty IDP fantasy football leagues in the wake of the draft

The draft shook up the 6-15 range, but the top five only saw one departure and one new entry, with the top three staying intact. I'll be honest folks, it's pretty bleak out there from the mid-second on this year. There are some delayed gratification wide receiver possibilities, limited upside RBs, and IDPs of varying ceiling/floor combinations that can contribute, but the bottom line this year is to be willing to give up later picks to move up to/within the first for your top targets.

The Bloom 100 is ranked with the following type of dynasty fantasy football league in mind:

  • Full IDP lineups including DT and CB
  • PPR, start 3 WR
  • Deep lineups and rosters

Of course, depending on your league scoring and settings, the placement of some positions can change, but the tier breaks and rankings within position should be good to use across all league formats.

1(1). Todd Gurley, RB, STL - Miami and especially Atlanta would have been better spots for Gurley. He’s still #1 because of talent and Jeff Fisher certainly loves to feed the running back, but the surrounding offense is putrid, and Gurley will have trouble getting good game scripts until that comes around. The gap closes, but he’s still #1.

2(2). Kevin White, WR, CHI - Hopefully Alshon Jeffery can teach White everything Brandon Marshall taught him. White is looking more like a co-#1 long term, but he can make splash plays in many ways and his ceiling is probably right around Jeffery’s. In the top 10, there weren’t really any plum destinations, so White basically remains where he was pre-draft.

3(3). Amari Cooper, WR, OAK - Cooper should have no problems with PPR volume, but big plays and touchdowns are another story. He has a QB that is far from a sure thing long term and not much help in the supporting cast - which again is good for volume, but not increasing the size of the offensive and passing production pie. Still not quite seeing him leveling off in WR1 territory at his peak.

4(6). Melvin Gordon, RB, SD - Gordon will yield some passing down/hurry-up duty to Danny Woodhead at first, but he could be an everydown back in time. The Chargers have the beef up front to create room to run and the offense is viable with Philip Rivers still in San Diego. Gordon should have the most early FF impact in this class. He gets a bump because of how bad San Diego wanted him, indicating the size of their plans for him. I’m not sold on him being as good as his biggest fans paint him, and won’t talk anyone out of passing on him for a wide receiver ranked below him.

5(4). DeVante Parker, WR, MIA - Parker joins a pretty stacked pass offense, but one that could shed Greg Jennings and Jordan Cameron in 2016. Kenny Stills and Jarvis Landry are good WR running mates, and Ryan Tannehill should continue to grow. This is a solid spot, albeit not as good as the Vikings and college teammate Teddy Bridgewater. Parker’s ceiling is close to or at White/Cooper’s, and he has the best long-term QB situation of the three right now. 1.5 probably has the most bang for your buck of any pick this year.

6(10). Nelson Agholor, WR, PHI - This is one of the top 3-5 destinations for Agholor, who will get to work inside and outside, and possibly even out of the backfield. Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson had low WR1 numbers manufactured for them by this offense, and Agholor has the overall game to match them. The Eagles QB situation and dramatic turn under Emperor Chip this offseason introduces some risk, as Agholor’s FF value would look very different if the air goes out of the Eagles offense balloon, which has transcended mediocre QB play. Make Agholor a trade-up target if he falls to the late first as long as you’re inclined to bet on Chip.

7(5). Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, TEN - The Titans feel a bit like a sinking ship, which isn’t ideal for a player with a boom/bust profile like Green-Beckham. Justin Hunter’s failure to live up to similarly lofty potential from an early second round launch certainly doesn’t inspire more confidence when you look into the crystal ball. Green-Beckham’s talent will compel me to take him over more volatile RB stocks, but with mixed feelings. Like the NFL, I am struggling with how to value him and almost hope I won’t have to make any close calls that involve him in my rookie drafts. A Josh Gordon-esque rise and fall with equal acceleration and drama could be ahead.

8(11). Ameer Abdullah, RB, DET - It’s not hard to picture Abdullah bouncing and slashing through defenses on the Ford Field turf like Reggie Bush did for the first half of 2013. Joique Bell won’t go quietly and Theo Riddick is an underrated talent, but Abdullah should have a chance to seize this backfield over the next two years. He’s the kind of talent that can force his way into a larger share of touches ahead of schedule. I’m getting a good vibe from this team/player combination. He could easily end up being a top five FF player from this class. Being only 205 pounds at the combine seems to limit his fantasy ceiling, but Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy were lighter (and taller) at the Combine. Won’t talk you out of Abdullah at six, and I might talk myself into it.

9(8). Breshad Perriman, WR, BAL - A shot at being a #1, learning by example from Steve Smith, and one of the best deep arms in the league to harness his size and game in the air means Perriman “won” for FF with his destination, just not quite as much as Abdullah and Agholor. Immediate opportunity is in his corner, but his fantasy ceiling isn’t as high as DGB (talent) or Agholor (situation).

10(12). TJ Yeldon, RB, JAX - The Jags will give Yeldon the chance to be a workhorse, and I think he can be up to the task. I’m just not sure what the fantasy yield will be from the lead back in this offense. Denard Robinson had a nice run last year on the strength of long plays, but that’s not going to be Yeldon’s calling card. The hope is for Alfred Morris/Mark Ingram level value.

11(9). Duke Johnson, RB, CLE - The mention of Giovani Bernard should draw groans from the fantasy crowd, and Isaiah Crowell can do a Jeremy Hill impression. Still from an overall talent/ability standpoint, Johnson is as well-suited to hit on the lower end of the weight scale as Abdullah. I believe in Johnson the player more than his situation, but the running game gets Alex Mack back, and there’s at least a lottery ticket that Johnny Manziel improves this offense. Moving him down could be an overreaction to situation. Oh if Dallas had just taken him over Randy Gregory.

12(17). Maxx Williams, TE, BAL - Williams doesn’t have elite TE upside, but he landed in a place that will maximize the fantasy potential he does possess. He could easily reach a Greg Olsen level of production within the first two years, and he’s young enough (20) to have more upside than we are giving him credit for.

13(14). Tevin Coleman, RB, ATL - I can’t ignore the opportunity in a Kyle Shanahan running game, but Coleman doesn’t strike me as a good fit in an outside zone heavy scheme at all. Darren McFadden’s performance in zone rushing offenses should serve as a warning, but at least Coleman plays on turf nine (or more) times a season. I’ll be hoping he goes ahead of my picks in the late first.

14(7). Jay Ajayi, RB, MIA - Unlike Eddie Lacy or teammate Lamar Miller, concerns about Ajayi’s knee dropped him well out of the top 100 picks, which is disturbing when you are coming from the perspective of a long-term investment. As Dr. Jene has pointed out, some players have had extended success playing through bone-on-bone type knee conditions, so both the NFL and fantasy owners who pass on Ajayi could regret it, but I can’t just write off his fall when stacking my post-draft rankings.

15(31). Phillip Dorsett, WR, IND - The Dorsett pick in the first didn’t bother me as much as others when I had some time to think on it. While he lacks the game in the air that you would want from a first-round WR who is a deep threat, Andrew Luck can unlock every bit of production potential that is in Dorsett. Dorsett is still more role player than core WR, but a role player in this offense can be very productive.

16(16). Sammie Coates, WR, PIT - A boom/bust prospect who has some foundational issues playing the ball in the air, Coates should still benefit from landing in a place that has developed WRs very well recently, and a pass offense that features vertical passes - in his wheelhouse. He’s blocked immediately by Martavis Bryant, but things can change quickly, and Coates at his best demands snaps and touches.

17(13). Jaelen Strong, WR, HOU - Strong fell in the draft, as the NFL seemed to share the hesitation about his game on the outside and separation ability that some draft analysts had. his fantasy situation opposite DeAndre Hopkins in a Mallett/Hoyer passing game is suboptimal, and the Texans good defense and running game will keep them out of the franchise QB zone of the draft. I can live without Strong.

18(15). Devin Smith, WR, NYJ - Smith’s deep game is his forte, but Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick have trouble bringing that part of the field into play consistently. Even more to the point, both could be out of the team’s plans by Week 1 of 2016. Smith’s game has potential to grow, but the Jets QB situation is a limiting factor.

19(23). Devin Funchess, WR, CAR - I would have preferred Funchess as a TE, but the Panthers commitment to get him is encouraging, even they don’t see like the kind of offense that can support a strong FF WR2. Funchess moves well for a big man, but that’s about where the Kelvin Benjamin comparisons end. When his head is in the game, Benjamin is much better competing for balls in the air than Funchess.

20(19). Jameis Winston, QB, TB - As expected. It’s a great situation for a pocket passer like Winston. He could be useful in QBBC and DFS right away, and his ceiling looks like a low QB1.

21(20). Marcus Mariota, QB, TEN - Even with the running ability, Mariota’s overall chances of success take a hit with an organization in decline, in part due to misses at offensive skills positions and on the offense line. The team also seems committed to playing Mariota right away even though he has a big transition coming from the Oregon style offense to the pros.

22(21). Eric Kendricks, LB, MIN - My favorite off ball LB in this draft landed in a defense with a wide open MLB job on a team on the rise. He doesn’t project at the Willis/Kuechly level that traditionally merited a first-round pick in rookie drafts.

23(25). Chris Conley, WR, KC - Conley is a physical wonder, but #2 WR in Kansas City is where fantasy value goes to die. Jeremy Maclin could wither from underuse, but Conley is also more of a downfield receiver in an offense that lacks that dimension. Athletic upside dictates a pick in the late 2nd, but this one might take patience to pay off.

24(24). DeAndre Smelter, WR, SF - Consider this a redshirt year for Smelter, who is also stuck in an underwhelming pass offense that just spend a lot of money on a receiver that should lead in deep targets, which is where Smelter would make his money and fantasy production. Like Conley, will require patience and stuck in a barren plain of a pass offense.

25(37). Vic Beasley, DE, ATL - Beasley has the film and physical traits to excel as a LEO in Atlanta’s new defense. If sacks aren’t worth at least three times tackles, you might not want to invest this heavily in Beasley, but he’s the best of the DE crop.

26(33). Justin Hardy, WR, ATL - Will never be a top 20 fantasy WR, but immediate and long-term opportunity is there in a good pass offense.

27(32). Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA - Quality/volume of Seattle passing game will increase and Seattle clearly wanted Lockett, but I’ve never been sold on him as more than a complementary WR.

28(46). Josh Robinson, RB, IND - Robinson has more to offer than Dan Herron, and he can definitely produce if he’s called on in this offense. Frank Gore has this situation held down for now, but Robinson could be part of a committee approach that oozes TDs in due time.

29(29). Kenny Bell, WR, TB - Bell is good enough to be the #3 WR in short order, and Vincent Jackson is getting close to the point where he’ll have to restructure or get cut. Jameis Winston could fuel a good pass offense if the line can get to a respectable point soon.

30(26). David Cobb, RB, TEN - Can Cobb be better than Bishop Sankey? Yes. Can Cobb be good enough to matter in fantasy leagues as part of an RBBC in Tennessee? No. Is Cobb good enough to be an “answer” at running back for the long haul? Probably not.

31(22). David Johnson, RB, ARI - I love Johnson as a receiver out of the backfield, but he’s an inferior runner inside to Andre Ellington, and just as likely as Ellington to be relegated to a smaller role by the eventual arrival of a big back.

32(36). Shaq Thompson, LB, CAR - Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis won’t leave much for Thompson in the IDP scoring way, but they’ll be great examples to follow to become great. Thompson’s sphere of influence on the field is huge, and he’s in a defense which features active LB play.

33(35). Stephone Anthony, LB, NO - Anthony should get opportunity in short order in New Orleans, and he projects as an everydown LB, but doesn’t have game to create LB1 ceiling.

34(52). Landon Collins, S, NYG - I am loathe to spend rookie picks on safeties, but Collins can be an immediate flagship producer in IDP leagues.

35(44). Dante Fowler, DE, JAX - Fowler doesn’t have high-end upside as a sack artist, but if the Jags are willing to move him around like Florida did, he could have a high tackle ceiling for a defensive end. A safe, but unexciting use of a third-round pick.

36(54). Randy Gregory, DE, DAL - He gets Rod Marinelli and an organization that seems ready to embrace him coming off of their success with Dez Bryant.

37(71). Darren Waller, WR, BAL - Could flame out, but classic Georgia Tech WR with size and speed could also push for a starting spot and translate as well as Perriman.

38(38). Leonard Williams, DE, NYJ - If Mo Wilkerson can be fantasy relevant in this defense, Williams can too. This defensive line is going to manufacture sack opportunities in bunches.

39(18). Mike Davis, RB, SF - I don’t think Davis is better than Carlos Hyde, but he’s good enough to be a back that produces if he’s called on and one that we start to look forward to getting a second contract with more opportunity in free agency. Easier to stomach in leagues with taxi squad spots.

40(47). Javorius Allen, RB, BAL - Allen is better than Lorenzo Taliaferro, but not by much. He might have temporary value if Justin Forsett gets dinged, but he’s a replacement level back , a no nonsense downhill runner, not a long-term solution.

41(51). Thomas Rawls, RB, SEA - Rawls reminded me of a middle class Christine Michael, so it’s fitting that the Seahawks took him. Road to opportunity is long, but quality of running game is a pot of gold at the end of that rainbow.

42(30). Zach Zenner, RB, DET - Zenner slipped out of the draft, which was a small surprise. One popular rumor out there posits that Zenner’s post-football plans might have worked against him in a league that values football sickness. Could be ticketed for a practice squad in year one.

43(28). DeVante Davis, WR, PHI - This big, smooth-moving UDFA just has to look good compared to Riley Cooper to have a shot to make the roster in a pass offense that seems to transcend QB play, which isn’t a tall order.

44(34). Austin Hill, WR, SEA - Three years ago, Hill would have projected as at least a mid-round pick with his rugged game, and he could quickly carve out a role in a WR corps that otherwise features slot receivers and deep ball specialists.

45(68). Owa Odighizuwa, DE, NYG - Teams shied away from him early because of his hip issues, but his fall wasn’t as dramatic as Jay Ajayi’s, and he landed in a 3-4 defense. Lacks elite FF upside, but projects as a solid producer.

46(53). Paul Dawson, LB, CIN - It worked out for Vontaze Burfict in Cincinnati and Burfict is recovering from knee surgery. I worry about his ability to translate as more than a downhill LB.

47(76). Matt Jones, RB, WAS - More of a big third-down back than a feature back, someone will be fascinated enough with Jones to take him much earlier than I would.

48(27). Tre McBride, WR, TEN - McBride is good enough to make the Titans, but he’ll be in Green-Beckham’s shadow, and my trepidation about investing in Tennessee right now knocked him down this list.

49(45). Jeremy Langford, RB, CHI - Langford looks like a backup NFL RB at best. That could spell temporary value if Matt Forte gets dinged, but getting ahead of Ka’Deem Carey on the depth chart is not a given.

50(55). Shane Ray, LB, DEN - The Broncos are obviously sold on Ray, but his linebacker designation makes it easier to pass on him with questions about his game, health, and athleticism increasing the risk.

51(59). Denzel Perryman, LB, SD
52(43). Bud Dupree, LB, PIT
53(UR). Synjyn Days, RB, DAL
54(64). Cameron Artis-Payne, RB, CAR
55(UR). Terrence Magee, RB, BAL
56(UR). Clayton Geathers, S, IND
57(UR). Ibraheim Campbell, S, CLE
58(81). Preston Smith, DE, WAS
59(79). Stefon Diggs, WR, MIN
60(48). Clive Walford, TE, OAK
61(70). Marcus Peters, CB, KC
62(84). Trae Waynes, CB, MIN
63(UR). DeAndre Carter, WR, BAL
64(UR). Rasheed Bailey, WR, PHI
65(56). Titus Davis, WR, SD
66(91). Hau’oli Kikaha, LB, NO
67(94). Nate Orchard, LB, CLE
68(58). Benardrick McKinney, LB, HOU
69(42). Rashad Greene, WR, JAX
70(41). Dezmin Lewis, WR, BUF
71(40). Karlos Williams, RB, BUF
72(80). Ty Montgomery, WR, GB
73(75). Vince Mayle, WR, CLE
74(92). Jamison Crowder, WR, WAS
75(39). Malcolm Brown, RB, STL
76(49). Brett Hundley, QB, GB
77(61). Darius Davis, WR, SF
78(UR). Tyrell Williams, WR, SD
79(60). Adrian Coxson, WR, GB
80(57). Bud Sasser, WR, STL
81(65). Trey Williams, RB, WAS
82(UR). Jeff Heuerman, TE, DEN
83(96). Jesse James, TE, PIT
84(UR). JJ Nelson, WR, ARI
85(87). Bryce Petty, QB, NYJ
86(62). Kwon Alexander, LB, TB
87(90). Jean Sifrin, TE, IND
88(63). James O’Shaughnessy, TE, KC
89(66). Rory Anderson, TE, SF
90(72). Blake Bell, TE, SF
91(50). Michael Dyer, RB, FA
92(69). Dee Hart, RB, FA
93(85). Marcus Coker, RB, FA
94(97). Josh Harper, WR, OAK
95(98). Dominique Brown, RB, TB
96(67). Ben Heeney, LB, OAK
97(UR). Mycole Pruitt, TE, MIN
98(UR). Tyler Kroft, TE, CIN
99(UR). Jalston Fowler, RB, TEN
100(UR). Tyler Varga, RB, IND