Bink Inc. Week 9

GPP-based article outlining high-upside plays based on ownership

Bink Inc. Week 9

Quarterbacks:

Aaron Rodgers ($7,800)

Colts @ Packers

Projected Team Total:  30.5 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  23.7 points (3x salary multiple)

After a slow start to the season, Rodgers has come alive, throwing seven touchdowns to no interceptions over his last two games. In week 7 against Chicago, Rodgers threw 56 passes, completing 39 of them for 326 yards and three touchdowns. He was super-efficient in a nail biting loss to Atlanta in week 8, throwing for 246 and four touchdowns while completing 73.7% of his passes. He gets an excellent matchup against the Colts in week 9. Indy is averaging 287.8 passing yards per game, good for 31st in the NFL. Over the last four weeks, the Colts are giving up 24.8 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, four most in the NFL. The Green Bay vs Indy matchup has the highest game total of the week at 54 points, and the Packers have the highest implied team total at 30.5 points. If you are hesitant to spend up at quarterback, it is understandable given the production by quarterbacks with lower salaries like Drew Brees, Andrew Luck and David Carr. However, this is the week you want to pay up and reap the benefits when Rodgers goes off. He is in the perfect matchup with a high over/under and team total, and Indy will have trouble with the Packers receivers. A Rodgers/Nelson/Adams stack makes a lot of sense this week, and you can play them with confidence. The Packers passing game is just starting to hit their stride, and while some players like Davante Adams have been highly owned in the last several weeks, a Packers super stack should give you the differentiation you need to run deep in GPP’s. Play them with confidence.

 

Dak Prescott ($6,100)

Cowboys @ Browns

Projected Team Total:  27.75 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  20.5 points (3.36x salary multiple)

Dak Prescott has exceeded all expectations by a wide margin in his rookie season. He’s played like a veteran, completing 65.2% of his passes with a 9:2 touchdown to interception ratio. Prescott has also chipped in four rushing touchdowns that has helped pad his stats from week to week. Since week 1, Prescott has scored at least 18 DraftKings points, and is averaging 19.6 points on the year.  This is the first week that his salary has jumped above $6,000 ($6,100), but he still makes for tremendous value in a fantastic matchup against Cleveland. The Browns are giving up 277.8 passing yards per game (25th in the NFL), and over the last four weeks are giving up 26.3 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (3rd most in the NFL). This is the week where you want to consider stacking Prescott and Dez Bryant, as the Browns are giving up 28.5 fantasy points to opposing wide receivers over the last four weeks. While Prescott may lack top end upside—he’s yet to pass for 300 yards—he showed last week that he can get you at least 4.5x salary multiple, which is very good considering you are getting Prescott at a very low salary. Playing him at quarterback allows you to pay up at other positions like wide receiver and running back, where the upside of the best players is much higher than that of quarterbacks and tight ends. Cleveland has been very bad against the run (143.8 rushing yards per game, 31st in the NFL, so the Cowboys could ride Ezekiel Elliot. With that in mind, the Dallas offense should have their fair share of opportunities in the red zone, which only enhances Prescott’s value. Dallas has the highest implied total of any away team this week (27.75), and the second highest overall team total. Cleveland has been able to move the ball through the air this year, so the game should remain close enough for Prescott to run the offense for four quarters. He’s one of my favorite plays this week, and if you are skittish about stacking Bryant, another great option is stacking Prescott and Elliot.

 

Andrew Luck ($6,700)

Colts @ Packers

Projected Team Total:  23.5 points

Footballguys IVC Projection: 21.6 points (3.2x salary multiple)

Andrew Luck has been very consistent this year, scoring 20 or more DraftKings points in five of his eight games, and he has exceeded 18 points in seven of his eight games. He’s also proved to be one of the top fantasy quarterbacks in terms of upside, scoring 38.5 points in week one and 30.8 points in week seven. This week he gets a Packers defense that has given up big performances to several quarterbacks this year. This past week, Matt Ryan was 28 of 35 for 288 yards and three touchdowns, scoring 30.3 fantasy points. In week four at Green Bay, Matthew Stafford threw for 385 yards and three touchdowns with one interception, while scoring 33.4 fantasy points. Sam Bradford scored 24 points in week three, and Dak Prescott scored 26 points while playing in Green Bay. The Packers defense is certainly not a push over, averaging 247.1 passing yards per game, good for 16th in the NFL. With that said, they have not been able to contain quarterbacks who have elite wide receivers, with the exception of Eli Manning who was 18 of 35 for 199 yards with one touchdown. Stefon Diggs had a monster game against Green Bay, securing nine receptions for 182 yards and a touchdown, while Marvin Jones Jr had six receptions for 205 yards and two touchdowns. Andrew Luck has an elite receiver in TY Hilton, and he should cause serious problems for a talented but very young Packers secondary. The Colts have an implied team total of 23.5 points, and the Packers vs Colts matchup has the highest game total of the week at 54 points. Vegas thinks that the Colts will be playing from behind for most of the game, allowing Luck to rack up passing stats deep into the fourth quarter. The spread is only 7.5 points, which means that the Colts are projected to hang with Green Bay for much of the game, and I would not be surprised to see this game come down to the last possession. Luck is an elite quarterback capable of putting up GPP winning games, and his salary is the lowest it’s been all season ($6,700). That is $1,600 lower than the salary he started the season with ($8,300), which is interesting considering he is averaging 25.2 DraftKings points per game over his last four weeks. Luck’s salary is too soft not to have heavy exposure, and that is exactly what I am going to have in my GPP’s. Play him with confidence this week.

 

Running Backs:

Ezekiel Elliot ($7,900)

Cowboys @ Browns

Projected Team Total:  27.75 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  22.9 points (2.9x salary multiple)

To put in bluntly, Elliot has been incredible in his rookie season. The Cowboys have leaned on two rookies (Elliot and Prescott) and all they’ve done is go 6-1 in their first seven games, while leading the NFC East by two games in the win column. Elliot is averaging 114.1 rushing yards per game, while also scoring five touchdowns in seven games. He leads the NFL in rushing and is averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Elliot had his 100 yard game streak broken this past week when he finished just shy of that mark with 96 yards. Prior to week 8, Elliot had racked up 140, 138, 134 and 157 rushing yards from week three through week six, which resulted in 21, 25.7, 35.1 and 22.4 DraftKings points, respectively. This week Elliot gets a dream matchup against a Browns defense that has not been able to stop opposing running backs. Cleveland is giving up 143.8 rushing yards per game, good for 31st in the NFL. Since week three, the Browns have allowed nine rushing touchdowns, and every team that has played them during that time has scored at least one rushing touchdown. Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill combined for 40 fantasy points in week seven, while Matt Forte and Bilal Powell combined for 35 fantasy points in week eight against the Browns. The Cowboys have the second highest implied team total (27.75 points) and the fourth highest game total at 48.5 points. Elliot is priced as the most expensive running back this week, but he’s priced that way for a reason. The Cowboys have not been shy about giving him a big workload, as Elliot has averaged 22.7 carries per game this year. He has a fantastic matchup and makes for a great anchor on your GPP teams. Elliot has a high ceiling, setting the bar in a week five win at Cincinnati, rushing for 134 yards with two touchdowns, while scoring 35.1 DraftKings points. He has the upside to match that mark and possibility exceed it against a Browns defense that is very weak against the run. 

 

Matt Forte ($6,500)

Jets @ Dolphins

Projected Team Total:  20.5 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  16.5 points (2.5x salary multiple)

Forte has seen his role change drastically after leaving the Bears for greener pastures in New York. During his time in Chicago, Forte was used heavily in the passing game and was rarely given goal line carries. It is amazing that Forte has never has never scored 10 rushing touchdowns in a season, as his career high is nine, and he averaged only 5.6 rushing touchdowns per game. Forte made his mark as a receiver, catching 102 passes during the 2014 season for with the Bears. He only has 20 catches for 163 yards this year with the Jets, which is roughly 3.5 less catches per game, and 14 less receiving yards per game. The Jets have made Forte their bell cow back, feeding him 19.6 rushes per game. The results have been mixed, as Forte is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry, but he has had some really good games this year that justify his upside. In week three, Forte rushed 30 times for 100 yards and three touchdowns, which resulted in 33.9 DraftKings points. In week 7, Forte also rushed 30 times for 100 yards and one touchdown, while also catching four passes for 54 yards and a touchdown, resulting in 33.4 DraftKings points. Forte has a very good matchup this week, playing against a Miami defense that has surrendered 135.6 rushing yards per game, good for 31st in the NFL. The Dolphins have allowed six rushing scores this year, but interestingly enough, only two of those have come from opposing running backs. LeGarrette Blount beat up on Miami in week 2, rushing 29 times for 123 yards and a touchdown. DeMarco Murray found success against Miami as well, rushing 27 times for 121 yards. The Jets have an implied team total of 20.5 points, and their matchup against Miami has a projected total of 44 points. Forte is just starting to hit his stride, scoring four touchdowns in his last two games. He should see a lot of carries this week, and I have his floor projected at around 15 points. He has an established ceiling of 33.9 points this year, and there is no reason why he can’t give you 26+ points (4x). I have him as one of the better plays at running back this week, and I will have heavy exposure to him in my GPP lineups.

 

Theo Riddick ($4,900)

Lions @ Vikings

Projected Team Total:  18 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  17.4 points (3.5x salary multiple)

Speaking of value plays, Theo Riddick jumps out to me, as he has one of the softest salaries this week at $4,900. He is coming off two fantastic games, scoring 26.2 DraftKings points in week five, and 27.3 points against Houston in week eight. If you are just looking at stats, this looks like a tough matchup for Riddick, but on closer inspection, Riddick’s value as a receiver out of the backfield makes him a very interesting play this week. The Vikings are allowing only 92.6 rushing yards per game, good for eighth best in the NFL. However, they have been much less effective at stopping running backs when they are catching passes out of the backfield. The Vikings are allowing 13.5 yards per catch to opposing running backs and they have been very prone to letting up the big play in that respect. Derrick Henry and DeMarco Murray caught seven passes for 76 yards and two touchdowns in week one against Minnesota, while Paul Perkins and Bobby Rainey caught nine passes for 115 yards in week four. Jordan Howard beat up on the Minnesota defensive front in week eight, carrying the ball 26 times for 153 yards and a touchdown, while also catching four passes for 49 yards. On the year, the Vikings are allowing 4.7 yards per carry. Riddick has been given a large workload when healthy, averaging 15.8 touches and 7.1 targets per game. He’s scored five touchdowns in the six games he’s played. On paper the Vikings look like a difficult match, but Riddick can be dangerous against a defense that has had trouble stopping running backs in the passing game. He should be low owned this week, making him a fantastic GPP option that offers salary relief.

 

 

Wide Receiver

 

Ty Montgomery ($5,800)

Colts @ Packers:  30.5 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  11.9 points (2x salary multiple)

Montgomery has found his niche in the Packers offense. With Eddie Lacy and James Starks both out with injuries, Montgomery has become the Packers number one running back, despite the fact that he is categorized as a wide receiver. This is a situation that you need to exploit, as Montgomery has scored 22.6 and 19.4 points in his last two games as the lead back for Green Bay. Over those two games, Montgomery rushed 12 times for 66 yards, while catching 20 passes for 164 yards. In both those games Montgomery caught ten passes on 12.5 targets per games. Our IVC is erring on the conservative side with respect to his projected points, but I am confident that Montgomery will reach at least a 3x multiple on his salary (17.4 points). The Colts have allowed four receiving touchdowns to running backs this season. Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdullah combined for 10 receptions and 120 yards with two touchdown against the Colts. Jordan Howard caught three passes for 45 yards and a touchdowns, while Lamar Miller caught three passes for 29 yards and a touchdown against the Colts. Over the last four weeks, the Colts are giving up 36.6 points to opposing wide receivers and tight ends, and 21.3 points to opposing running backs. The Colts vs Packers matchup has the highest total of the week 54 points, while the Packers have the highest implied team total at 30.5 points. Montgomery should have plenty of chances in the red zone, and he should reach value rather easily given the injuries in the Packers backfield. If Montgomery is indeed leading the Packers backfield this week (which all reports say he is going to), he becomes an auto play in GPP’s. He will be high owned, but in this case, you just have to take the value and move on, you can differentiate your team at other positions.

 

Demaryius Thomas ($6,000)

Broncos @ Raiders

Projected Team Total:  21.75 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  16.1 points (2.1x salary multiple)                    

Thomas has had a quiet, yet pretty efficient season. On the year, Thomas has 42 receptions for 535 yards and four touchdowns. If he continues at this pace, it will be his lowest catch and yardage total in the last four years. Now with that said, there was sure to be some growing pains as Trevor Simien took over as the lead quarterback. Thomas has caught 65% of his passes, and is averaging six catches on eight targets per game. He has scored a touchdown in four of his last six games, but he has not been able to generate many big plays because the Broncos coaching staff has been reluctant to try and throw deep. This week may change all of that. The Raiders are 27th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game at 285.4 yards per game. Through eight games, the Raiders have allowed eight 100+ yard games to opposing receivers. In week one, Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead IV absolutely torched the Raiders secondary to the tune of 15 catches for 215 yards and three touchdowns. While Simien is not Drew Brees, Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have an excellent chance to put up their best game of the season. The Raiders vs Broncos matchup has a projected game total of 43.5 points, and the Broncos have an implied team total of 21.75. Thomas can be a dominant wide receiver, and he if he is given the chance to make plays down the field, he can punish opposing secondary’s.  Thomas has a very soft salary of $6,000, which is nearly offering salary relief. There are other options in his price range, but I am going with Thomas as I think he has a huge advantage against a very suspect Oakland secondary. Emmanuel Sanders is priced at $6,300 and has more catches and more yards than Thomas thus far. I would recommend having exposure to both Thomas and Sanders, but if I had to pick one, I am going with Thomas because of his prowess in the red zone.

 

Michael Thomas ($5,500)

Saints @ 49ers

Projected Team Total:  27.5 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  15.3 points (2.8x salary multiple)

Coming into his rookie year, Thomas had received a lot of hype and many in the fantasy community thought that he would have a Marques Colston like rookie season. Thomas has not disappointed, racking up 42 catches for 500 yards and three touchdowns. Thomas has caught at least five passes in five of his seven games, and set a career high with 10 catches in a week seven showdown against Kansas City. Over his last three games, Thomas is averaging seven catches for 90.3 yards. He has proven to have great hands, catching 42 of 55 targets, or 76% of his passes. That puts him in the top 10 with respect to wide receiver catch percentage, although it would prudent to note that Willie Snead IV (77.3) and Brandon Coleman (75%) are both in the top 10 as well. The 49ers have not been able to stop opposing number one receivers, especially in the red zone. Mike Evans caught eight passes for 96 yards and two touchdowns against the 49ers, while Larry Fitzgerald caught six passes for 81 yards and two touchdowns. Doug Baldwin tore up the 49ers secondary to the tune of eight catches for 164 yards and a touchdown, while Kelvin Benjamin caught seven passes for 108 yards and two touchdowns. For the year, the 49ers have allowed 13 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers.  The Saints have the third highest implied team total at 27.5, while the New Orleans vs San Francisco matchup has the second highest projected game total at 52 points. Thomas leads the Saints in receptions and targets, and that is a trend that will continue for the rest of the season. Thomas is set up for a big week against the 49ers, and while he may be highly owned, he is a fantastic PP$ play and is very hard to fade in GPP lineups. He’s offering salary relief and has an established ceiling of 26 points in week 7, 10 catches for 130 yards), but he has the opportunity to exceed that ceiling this week.

 

 

Tight Ends

Antonio Gates ($3,000)

Titans @ Chargers

Projected Team Total:  26 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  10.3 points (3.4x salary multiple)

Gates is certainly getting a little long in the tooth, but he continues to be an effective red zone option for the San Diego Chargers. Through six games, Gates has 21 receptions for 152 yards and three touchdowns. Those numbers are not even close to the production that Gates is used to, but as he’s gotten older, his role in the offense has changed. Gates has been sharing time with rookie Hunter Henry—who has played very well—although Henry was injured this past Sunday and is doubtful to play on Sunday. Gates should inherit a full time role with Henry sidelined, and if his targets are anything like the last two weeks (19 targets last two games), you can expect Gates to score in double digits as his floor. The San Diego vs Tennessee matchup has a projected game total of 52 points, and the Chargers have the fourth highest implied team total at 26 points. The Titans rank 20th in the NFL in terms of passing yards allowed (259.5 yards), and they are giving up the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends (10.3 fantasy points). Jack Doyle had a big game against the Titans, catching nine passes for 78 yards and a touchdown, while CJ Fiedorowicz caught four passes for 48 yards and a touchdown against Tennessee. Kyle Rudolph and Eric Ebron both had four catches for 65 yards and 53 yards, respectively, against the Titans. Gates value is highly dependent on the health of Hunter Henry, but it looks as though Henry will miss Sunday’s game, making Gates a very attractive option at a super soft price of $3,000. It may appear that Gates lacks the upside to make a difference in GPP’s, but if you look closely at both his red zone and total targets, Gates could realistically have a 7-90-2 type game against Tennessee as his ceiling. That would absolutely be a GPP difference maker. With that in mind, I will have heavy exposure to Gates in GPP’s this week and I suggest you do the same. 

 


More articles from BJ VanderWoude

See all

More articles on: Daily FF

See all

More articles on: DraftKings

See all