Bink Inc. Week 7
Quarterbacks:
Andy Dalton ($6,000)
Browns @ Bengals
Projected Team Total: 27.75 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 20.1points (3.35x salary multiple)
After enjoying a breakout season in 2015, Andy Dalton has not lived up the standard he created for himself last season…at least that is what most critics want you to believe. While he may not show up at the top of the list in touchdown passes, Dalton has quietly put together an impressive start to the 2016 season. Let’s remember, Dalton lost two of his top three receivers in Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu, and he has been without his favorite red zone target, Tyler Eifert, for every game this season. Jeremy Hill is averaging 3.6 yards per carry, yet the Cincinnati coaching staff continues to give him carries despite opposing defenses stacking the box, so in many ways Dalton has had to be the one to create plays for his receivers, as opposed to vice-versa. That is with the exception of AJ Green, who has been incredible despite opposing defenses game planning against him every week. Now with all that said, Dalton has still averaged 292.8 passing yards per game and six passing touchdowns to two interceptions. He’s also added 93 yards on the ground with a rushing touchdown to boot, and had at least 21 DraftKings points in four of his six games while returning salary multiples of 3.1x, 3.1x, 3.9x and 3.7x. Of the top five quarterbacks in passing yardage, Dalton is the only one who has not had his salary above $7,000, and it does not look like that is going to change anytime soon. Even with one of the best matchups on paper this week, Dalton’s salary is still only $6,000, making him a near lock to exceed a 3x multiple on his salary while leaving plenty of upside to get to 4x or perhaps even higher. The Bengals host the lowly Cleveland Browns this week in an AFC North grudge match. To say the Browns have been friendly to opposing quarterbacks would be an understatement, as they are allowing on average, 290 yards passing and 2.66 passing touchdowns per game. If Dalton were to merely reach those averages, he would return a return a 3.5x multiple on his salary. Considering he is among the league’s top quarterbacks in passing yardage, a 300 yard game seems very likely, at which point we are looking at a three point bonus, moving Dalton up over 24 points and making him an elite GPP option. The Bengals have an implied team total of 27.75 points, the third highest of any team this week. Excluding the Browns game against the Patriots in week 5, they had lost their last four games by an average of six points per game. This is important to note because they have shown a knack for keep the score close, which would mean four quarters of Dalton airing the ball out and having the ability to maximize his points. With the need to spend up at running back becoming more important with each passing week, Dalton represents tremendous value at $6,000. He also has the matchup to reach his ceiling this week, giving you a killer combination of value and upside, a recipe for GPP success.
Matt Ryan ($7,200)
Chargers @ Falcons
Projected Team Total: 29.75 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 20.9 points (2.9x salary multiple)
If there was any question as to whether or not Matt Ryan and the Falcons were for real, it is safe to say it was answered in the third quarter of last week’s game against Seattle. Trailing 17-3 at the half, Ryan had played one of his worst halves of the 2016 season, throwing for only 93 yards against a Seahawks defense that had shut down every quarterback they faced. But Ryan wasn’t going to lay down, he came out guns-a-blazing and threw for 220 yards and three touchdowns…in the 3rd quarter alone! To put that in proper perspective, opposing quarterbacks had averaged only 201 yards passing per game against Seattle in 2016. The fact that Atlanta ended up losing the game was merely an afterthought from a fantasy perspective, as Ryan showed that he is matchup proof and capable of lighting up opposing defenses, regardless of how talented they are. His 26.6 fantasy points actually decreased his point per game average to 26.7 points for the season. Through six games, Ryan is averaging 345.6 passing yards per game, with 15 touchdowns to only three interceptions. He is 4th in the league with a 68.1% completion percentage, but what is most impressive is that he is averaging 9.88 yards per attempt, a full 1.7 yards more than his next nearest competitor (Philip Rivers: 8.19). That type of differential is unheard of in the NFL, and the only quarterback to average more yards per game (Drew Brees, 346 yards per game) is averaging two less yards per attempt (7.71 YPA), which should tell you something about how Ryan is mastering the balance of efficiency and explosiveness. This week the Falcons have another advantageous matchup, hosting a San Diego Chargers team that has been the polar opposite of the Falcons in terms of closing out games in the fourth quarter. The matchup has the highest projected total of the week (53.5 points), with the Falcons having the highest implied team total (29.75). San Diego has allowed four of six opposing quarterbacks to throw for 300+ yards, but three of those four have come on the road, so there should be no reason to expect anything less than a 300+ yard effort from Ryan on Sunday. For some strange reason, Ryan’s salary seems to fluctuate wildly each week, and it is almost as if the powers that be have not yet accepted that the Falcons are a passing team, despite the fact that they have gotten elite production from their running backs. Regardless, Ryan’s value is stable at $7,200, and in a matchup at home with the highest total of the week, against a poor pass defense, he should be looked at as a player you need to have in your GPP lineups. There is always value to be found at quarterback each week, but value does not necessarily mean “cheap”, as we are always searching for players whose ceilings can tip the GPP scales in our favor. With an established ceiling of 39.52 points this year, Ryan has that in spades this week.
Kirk Cousins ($5,900)
Redskins @ Lions
Projected Team Total: 24.5 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 18.9 points (3.2x salary multiple)
After consecutive weeks of completing 70% and 77% of his passes, Cousins took a big step backwards last week against the Eagles, completing only 52.9% of his passes on 34 for attempts for 263 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. It also marked the fourth straight game where Cousins was unable to throw for 300+ yards, a feat he accomplished in both weeks 1 and 2. On the bright side, he did break his streak of three straight games losing a fumble, so there is always that. Cousins should have had three touchdowns and 300+ yards passing, but Desean Jackson dropped a 50+ yard touchdown that Cousins threw perfectly, so like many times in the NFL, box scores do not always tell the whole story. He was also playing without his #1 weapon in Jordan Reed, who missed the game due to a concussion suffered the previous week. Reed is very much the center piece of the Redskins offense, and he is the one player who makes Cousins job easier when he is on the field, as Reed forces opposing defensive coordinators to account for him in a variety of ways. If Cousins was looking to get back on track, he couldn’t have picked a better opponent than the Lions, whom the Redskins travel to take on in Detroit this week. This past week the Lions allowed Case Keenum (CASE KEENUM!) to slice and dice them to the tune of 27 of 32 passing for three touchdowns and one interception. Anytime Case Keenum, and the phrase “franchise record for consecutive completions” is used in the same sentence, you know your pass defense is in dire straits. Detroit has allowed a league worst 17 passing touchdowns, to go along with 271.3 passing yards allowed per game (23rd in the NFL), and it isn’t just one or two big games that have skewed those stats against the Lions. Every single quarterback who has faced Detroit this year has thrown for multiple touchdowns, including Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck who threw for four touchdowns apiece. While Cousins is not Rodgers or Luck in the skill department, he still has a thing or two on Case Keenum, so the matchup is a very advantageous one for Captain Kirk and the Redskins this week. The Redskins vs Lions matchup has a game total of 50 points (3rd highest of the week), and the Redskins have an implied team total of 24.5 points, second only to the New England Patriots among teams playing on the road (and highest of any team that is an underdog). Cousins has seen his salary drop to a very soft cap number of $5,900, so there is not much risk associated with rostering him this week. Cousins has shown in the past that he is capable of putting up monster performances that turn into shootouts (4 TDs throw in two games last season), and the matchup with the Lions is shaping up to be exactly that. As mentioned above, value is not always a function of a cheap salary, but in Cousins case, it definitely is. Due to the juicy matchup and the success of all quarterbacks who have faced Detroit, Cousins would warrant consideration at $6,900, but at $5,900 he simply cannot be ignored. Between Dalton and Cousins, I am looking at 40%-50% of my quarterback exposure this week, and you should be too. Play him with confidence in your GPP’s this week.
Running Backs:
David Johnson ($7,400)
Seahawks @ Cardinals
Projected Team Total: 21.4 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 21.5 points (2.9x salary multiple)
For the second consecutive week, Johnson rushed for 100+ yards, scored multiple touchdowns and exceeded 35+ fantasy points. His two week total looks like this; 268 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns, six receptions, 55 receiving yards and 1,808,459 happy fantasy owners (I rounded up the last number). My colleague Phil Alexander and I gave Johnson the nickname The Ferrari-Mack…because, well, he is a cross between a Ferrari and a Mack truck. That explains his running style to a T, as he’s capable of running over defenders or running away from them, whichever makes the opposition look worse. On the year, Johnson now has 568 rushing yards on 113 carries with eight touchdowns and 20 catches for 265 receiving yards. With their season on the line against two inferior opponents in weeks 5 and 6, Bruce Arians rode Johnson the whole way, giving him 49 carries in total. Maybe he figured out that giving Johnson the ball meant winning, because in weeks 1-4, Arians only gave Johnson 64 carries. Interestingly enough, after putting up two dominating performances, Johnson’s salary has dropped a considerable amount from $8,000 to $7,400, which makes him the third highest priced running back this week behind Leveon Bell ($8,000) and LeSean McCoy ($7,600). As we’ve seen with other players, this is most likely due to the fact that Johnson and the Cardinals host a Seattle defense that is ranked third against the rush, giving up a stingy 74.6 rushing yards per game. Seattle also ranks 3rd in points allowed (15.6) and first overall in total yards allowed (283.6). If the Legion of Boom is scaring other people off Johnson, then I will be one happy guy, because I’m not buying it. Carson Palmer is back, so Seattle cannot simply stack the box and leave all of their cornerbacks in one on one coverage against Arizona’s trio of talented receivers. While the Seahawks have been very good in totality against running backs this year, they have had games where the opposition has gotten the best of them. Carlos Hyde ran for 105 yards and two touchdowns in a week 1 win for the 49ers against Seattle. And if we are looking at duel threat running backs, Bilal Powell had a good game against Seattle in week 4, rushing four times for 26 yards (6.5 yards per carry) while also catching six passes for 54 yards on nine targets. In week one, Arian Foster also beat the Seahawks in the screen game several times, catching three passes for 62 yards. As we learned last week, the Seahawks defense is still a top-flight unit, however when an elite offense meets an elite defense, the elite offense usually wins because all the offense has to do is act, while the defense is forced to react. We also saw this when Atlanta’s backfield destroyed Denver’s linebackers in a week 5 matchup of the best offense vs the best defense. Arizona may not have the gaudy passing stats that they did last year, but they have David Johnson…and that is all any offense needs in order to be very dangerous. The matchup will scare enough people to lower his ownership considerably, so there is enough reward to match the risk of Johnson facing a tough defense. Leveon Bell is the only running back who can match Johnson rush for rush and catch for catch, but even Bell doesn’t have the explosiveness and big play ability that Johnson has. Roster Johnson and save the $600, as well as the stress and anxiety of watching your #1 running back’s success tied to that of Landry Jones.
Jacquizz Rodgers ($4,300)
Bucs @ 49ers
Projected Team Total: 23.75 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 15.5 points (3.6x salary multiple)
The Thursday news cycle brought reports that Doug Martin had suffered a setback in his attempt to comeback from yet another injury in a career that has been derailed because of them. Charles Sims was sent to IR in the previous week, leaving Rodgers as the lead back for the Bucs. In his first shot as the workhorse against Carolina, the Bucs gave Rodgers the rock 30 times, which he turned into 101 yards as well as adding five catches for 28 yards. Rodgers is not a big back, standing only 5’6, 205 lbs, but he runs with a low center of gravity and packs a surprising punch. Fans of Oregon State will remember Rodgers as a workhorse back in college who never seemed to tire when giving a big workload. The high volume of carries was surprising, given the fact that the Bucs did not trust Martin with that big a workload, although the presence of Sims allowed them the luxury to divide carries between the two. They don’t have that luxury now, but that could work to their advantage against a 49ers run defense that has been awful against the run in 2016. Awful may not even do it justice, as the 49ers have allowed opposing running backs to rush for 100+ yards in five consecutive weeks. Over the last four weeks, the 49ers have given up nine rushing touchdowns, which included four this past week, three to LeSean McCoy and one to Mike Gillislee. Rodgers has the benefit of being a three down back, getting work in the red zone and on third downs, and his price is extremely soft at $4,300. There is no doubt he will be highly owned, given all that he has going for him, but there is a chance that his ownership could level off below 15% due to the demand on high end running backs. Either way, he is the type of play that allows you to build GPP winning rosters around him, and I would not be surprised to see him on many winning teams this weekend. If you are having doubts about his upside, remember this. Under Chip Kelly, the 49ers play at the highest pace in the NFL, so not only does it put undue pressure on the 49ers defense, it allows the Bucs extra possessions to accumulate points.
Spencer Ware ($5,800)
Saints @ Chiefs
Projected Team Total: 28.25 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 15.4 points (2.6x salary multiple)
With the return of Jamaal Charles, there was some angst among fantasy owners about just how the carries in the Chiefs backfield would be divided. If last Sunday was any indication, it is Charles’s owners that should be worried. Ware was treated as the workhorse back, with Andy Reid giving him 24 carries that Ware turned into 131 yards and a touchdown. Ware also added two catches for 32 yards, bringing his season total to 13 receptions for 231 yards and a ridiculous 17.8 yards per catch average. The explosive nature of Ware’s production has been the most surprising part of his breakout, and it has not just been through the air. For the second consecutive week, Ware has produced a 45+ yard rush, and when combined with his work in the passing game, gives him a total of five plays of 30+ yards on the year. With that type of big play ability, he is approaching Jamaal Charles territory. The Chiefs main concern when Charles went down with his injury was just how they were going to replace his ability to rip off big plays. Their passing game does not take many shots down the field, so they had come to depend on Charles to make plays on his own in the run game, and gain yards after the catch in the passing game. With Ware adding big plays to his power repertoire, the Chiefs have no reason to stop giving him a high volume of touches, even if that comes at Charles’s expense. This week the Chiefs take on the paper Mache defense that is the New Orleans Saints. The Saints pass defense has gotten all the bad publicity, but their run defense is equally inadequate. They are giving up 117.8 rushing yards to opposing running backs (26th) and have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns, the most of any team in the NFL. This is especially good news for Ware, as he has yet to really have a weak yardage game, but his GPP value is tied directly to whether or not he is able to score. The Chiefs showed last week that they will use both Charles and Ware in the red zone, but given the much higher volume of Ware’s touches, he is the better bet to score. The Chiefs efficient, but unimpressive passing game is also a factor here. They will not be able to take advantage of the Saints weak secondary like most teams (as we saw last week against a woeful Raiders secondary), so Ware should see high quality touches along with an increase in volume of touches. There is risk associated with Ware, especially because we do not have a large sample size to go on with respect to how the Chiefs want to employ both Ware and Charles. With that said, there is also considerable upside in a matchup that has the second highest game total (50.5 points), and the Chiefs also have the second highest implied team total (28.75), a very rare feat for a normally conservative offense. More than anything, Ware is an emerging star with a well-rounded skillset. And to think he is just starting to learn the nuances of the running back position and scratch the surface of his considerable talent. Get him on your GPP squads and enjoy the running, catching and touchdown upside that he brings to the table in a fantastic matchup. Jamaal who? I say….
Wide Receiver
Mike Evans ($7,800)
Bucs @ 49ers
Projected Team Total: 23.75 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 21.7 points (2.8x salary multiple)
The days of Vincent Jackson stealing away targets from Mike Evans are long gone, but the news of Jackson’s imminent move to IR still means very good things for Evans value moving forward. Jackson had been a shell of his former self, and opposing defensive coordinators were not respecting him, which further funneled safety help to Evans side of the field. With Jackson out, in steps Adam Humphries, a relative unknown and unheralded receiver, but one who has done very well with the limited targets that came his way. Evans should benefit from having another capable receiver opposite him, as well as the lack of options in the Tampa Bay backfield outside of Jacquizz Rodgers. Evans currently leads the NFL in targets per game (12.0), which is 1.3 more targets per game than Antonio Brown. He has scored in four of his five games this year, and has done so while being double and triple covered on most of his downfield routes. This is not surprising, as Evans is a physical freak and while he doesn’t have the straight line speed of Randy Moss in his prime, he has the same type of ability when the ball is in the air. At 6’5, 230lbs with a 37 inch vertical leap, Evans is a downfield mismatch that cannot be stopped in jump ball situations. Jameis Winston is still developing as a quarterback, which means Winston and Evans are still developing their coverage reads and route concepts, which is why you see gaps in Evans production. Aside from running full on go-routes where Evans is thrown a deep jump ball, the two have not yet figured out how to combat double coverage when it comes from a talented defense. That should not be an issue this week though, as the Bucs travel to San Francisco to take on a 49ers defense that has been quite generous to opposing receivers. If you look at defensive rankings, the 49ers actually rank 7th in pass defense, allowing only 215.5 yards per game. That is somewhat misleading though, as they have given up 12 passing touchdowns and the reason why they have allowed such a low total of passing yards is because teams are absolutely gashing them on the ground (174.5 rushing yards per game), which 28 more yards than the next worst team. And while the total number of passing yards is low, much of that production has come from #1 receivers who have taken advantage of a weak 49ers secondary. Kelvin Benjamin (7/108/2), Doug Baldwin (8/164/1) and Larry Fitzgerald (6/81/2), all had big performances against the 49ers. Much like Evans, Benjamin and Fitzgerald are both big bodied receivers, something the 49ers secondary has had a lot of problems with, evidenced by their four touchdowns. This has been an area exploited by opposing teams in the red zone, as Brice Butler, Justin Hunter and Devin Funchess all scored on the 49ers as well. This matchup has a very healthy game total of 46.5 points (seventh highest in week seven), and the Bucs have an implied team total of 23.75 points. Our interactive value charts have Evans as the top scorer at wide receiver this week (21.7 points). Considering his soft salary of $7,800 is $1,500 lower than Antonio Brown, Evans should be the receiver with whom you have your highest exposure to in GPP’s this week. He has everything going for him, and his high volume of targets ensures a stable floor in a game that will be very fast paced.
Odell Beckham Jr ($8,900)
Giants @ Rams
Projected Team Total: 23.25 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 19.1 points (2.1x salary multiple)
Several weeks ago I warned against fading Odell Beckham Jr with my main reasoning that he had averaged a multi-touchdown performance every six games throughout his career. He had yet to have one this year, and when did it come? Week six, right on time…at least I hope it was for those of you who kept playing regardless of the negative media attention he was receiving. Beckham broke out in a big way against the Ravens, catching eight passes for 222 yards and two touchdowns, while completely swinging GPPs in favor of those who rostered him. It wasn’t just the “what”, it was the “how”, with his performance last week. If you missed it, go back and watch the walk-off, mic-dropping slant route he takes to the house that gave the Giants the win over the Ravens last week. If you had never seen him and wanted one play to sum up his extraordinary talent, that would be the play. He ran a perfect route, plucked the ball out in front of him at the apex of his route and never broke speed, even has he slightly cut to the middle of the field, which gave the safety absolutely no chance of creating an angle of attack. I should also mention that Eli Manning threw the perfect ball, which played a big, big part in Beckham being able to complete the play the way he did. For all of his eccentric and diva-like behavior, Beckham is pound for pound up there with anyone in the NFL in terms of sheer talent, and he is still very young and without the polish of understanding how to properly use his athleticism to set up cornerbacks. This week he will get another opportunity to put up gaudy stats as the Giants travel to Los Angeles to take on a Rams team that nearly upset the Lions last week. The Rams have a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball (most notably Defensive Player of the Year candidate, Aaron Donald), but that has not stopped them from getting beat up by opposing wide receivers. Last week, Golden Tate came back from the dead to post an eight catch, 165 yard, one touchdown performance. He wasn’t the only Lion receiver to score though, as Anquan Boldin (8/60/1), Marvin Jones (2/10/1) and Andre Roberts (2/13/1) all found pay dirt. The Rams have only allowed eight receiving touchdowns all year, however six of them have come in the past two weeks. The Rams have had trouble containing speedy receivers, with Tate, John Brown and Adam Humphries all surpassing 100 yards receiving, and Tyler Lockett nearly got there with 99 receiving yards. The Giants move Beckham all over their passing formations, so he should see significant time matching up against both the Rams outside and nickel cornerbacks, matchups that he can exploit in the short/intermediate passing game with his quickness, as well as down the field with his jumping ability and athleticism. With the Rams playing at home, I don’t see this as a game where either team jumps out to a big lead, so we should see four quarters of Eli Manning feeding the ball to Beckham. After gaining momentum with his performance last week, the last thing the Giants want is for him is to slow down, so expect a heavy target volume that yields 100+ yards and at least one touchdown. There are other cheaper options at wide receiver to consider this week, but for GPP’s, Beckham deserves a fair amount of exposure.
Allen Hurns ($5,000)
Raiders @ Jaguars
Projected Team Total: 24.25 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 12 points (2.4x salary multiple)
A year after setting the fantasy world on fire with seven consecutive weeks of touchdown receptions, Allen Hurns has not had the same type of impact in 2016. That was to be expected to an extent, as touchdown regression and variance are very real things in the fantasy world, and as an outside receiver who benefitted from Blake “Garbage-Time” Bortles throwing every chance he got last season, there was sure to be a reduction in his touchdown total, and subsequently his fantasy value. In addition to those points, there was also the fact of the Jaguars defense improving, the addition of a high priced running back to balance the offense, and Marquise Lee finally coming to the decision that playing on game day might benefit his career. Those are all true, but Hurns demise has largely been exaggerated by those who simply look at box scores. He’s averaging four catches for 60 yards per game, and is seeing over seven targets per contest, the same volume of targets he averaged in 2015. His 15.0 yards per catch average down a bit from 16.1 ypc last season, but there is nothing there to suggest that he is being used in a different way, or is being asked to run different routes. Furthermore, Hurns has eight red zone targets on the year, tied for 12th among all receivers, and the same number as fellow Jaguar Allen Robinson, as well as elite players like AJ Green, DeAndre Hopkins and TY Hilton. Hurns also yet to fall below 40 yards receiving in any game, and has had 64+ yards receiving in three of his five games this year. Blake Bortles got off to a very slow start in 2016, but has since picked up steam and that stands to benefit both Hurns and Robinson, but more so Hurns, because defenses are shading more coverage to Robinsons side. If there is one thing that Hurns has proven he can do in the NFL, it is beat one on one coverage. This week he gets his chance to really break out, as the Jaguars host a 4-2 Oakland Raiders team that has been exciting on offense and quite dreadful on defense (Sorry Khalil Mack, you are still amazing). The Raiders have allowed 312.7 passing yards per game, which ranks dead last in the NFL. They’ve given up 12 passing touchdowns, with seven of those coming to opposing wide receivers. If you need a receiver to have a big game, your best bet is to target the Raiders. They’ve allowed six receivers to post 100+ yards receiving against them, with five of them going for 100+ yards and a touchdown. Where they’ve really struggled though, is shutting down outside receivers down the field. The Raiders have allowed the most 20+ yard passing plays (28) and the most 40+ yard passing plays (9), both stats that bode well for Hurns chances of scoring a long touchdown. The Raiders vs Jaguars matchup has a projected total of 47.5 points (5th highest in week 7) and the Jaguars have an implied team total of 24.25 points. The Raiders have made a habit out of getting involved in shootouts, and the Jaguars have similar strengths and weaknesses, so this is a game that could very well crack the 55 point mark. While Hurns has yet to have his breakout game of 2016, the metrics point to it coming very soon, and those stats are converging with the best matchup he will have all year. His price is fair at $5,000, but with his yardage and touchdown upside, a 5x game is not out of the question, as he has an established ceiling of 33 points set last year against the Saints (8/103/2). His ownership should continue to be very low, and this is the perfect week to have meaningful exposure to him and boost your GPP teams.
Tight Ends
Jack Doyle ($2,500)
Colts @ Titans
Projected Team Total: 22.5 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 9.8 points (3.9x salary multiple)
Doyle burst onto the scene in week 1, catching two touchdown passes from Andrew Luck, which left a trail of frustrated Dwayne Allen owners in his wake. Allen was supposed to be a breakout candidate at tight end this year with the departure of Coby Fleener, as it was assumed that Allen’s limitations in the passing game came from his superior ability to block over Fleener. It turns out that was only half right, as Allen has not really seen his targets increase by a large measure, while still being asked to block while the Colts deal with offensive line woes that have gotten Andrew Luck mauled through the start of his career. Now Allen is slated to miss time, and in steps Doyle. Of the two, Doyle has been the far more efficient pass catcher, catching twenty passes for 203 yards and three touchdowns. Excluding running backs, Doyle leads the NFL in catch rate at 87%, snagging all but three of his targets this season. With Allen out, Doyle could see his targets rise in the intermediate passing game, which would give him tremendous value at a very soft price ($2,500). As it stands, the Footballguys IVC has Doyle projected to return a 3.9x salary multiple, which would make him one of the more valuable plays across the board this week. Generally speaking, 10 points would be lower than you would want to target in your GPP lineups, however with so many inconsistent tight ends throwing up duds this year (I’m looking at you Zachalie Wertzer), getting that type of production from a player priced so low can be effective way of boosting your production at running back and wide receiver. This week the Colts travel to Tennessee to take on a Titans team that has been generous to opposing tight ends. While the Titans have given up only one touchdown to opposing tight ends, they have allowed 48+ yards to five different tight ends on the year, with that group averaging 15.86 yards per catch. If Doyle can get to five receptions for 50 yards, he will reach GPP value, which is not asking much given his production and the Titans defensive averages against the position.
