Bink Inc. Week 15

Breaking down the DraftKings player pool


Here at Bink Inc, my aim is to break down the DraftKings player pool and give you the skinny on the various GPP options at your disposal. I will be going through all positions and all pricing tiers, as well as dropping GPP lineup construction knowledge. Due to DraftKings new regulations regarding selling lineups, we can’t actually give you pre-built lineups. With that said, each week the Bink Inc. article will provide you with all of the information you need, so that you can craft lineups from our suggestions. In many ways this is better for our readers, as you will become familiar with the different strategies for GPP lineup construction and be able to identify how value shifts from position to position depending on the pricing each week

Quarterbacks:

 

Joe Flacco ($5,700)

Eagles @ Ravens

Projected Team Total:  24.75 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  19.2 points (2. 6x salary multiple)

Joe Flacco isn’t enjoying the best statistical season of his career, but for fantasy purposes, he has been sneaky good. Flacco is averaging 17.9 DraftKings points per game, and has scored 20+ points in five of his 13 games. Considering his price, which has been below $6,000 eight times this year, he’s been a solid PP$ option most weeks. Flacco also had a chance to show off his ceiling two weeks ago, where he shredded the Dolphins for 381 yards passing and four touchdowns (33.24 points). He backed that up with 324 yards and two touchdowns against the Patriots last week, and now finds himself in a great position this week. Flacco and the Ravens host an Eagles defense that started off very strong this season, but has since let up 20 passing touchdowns in their last ten games. The Eagles cornerbacks can be exploited by the Ravens talented group of wide receivers in Mike Wallace, Steve Smith, Dennis Pitta and the suddenly healthy Breshad Perriman. If there is one thing that Flacco does very well from the pocket, it is find wide receivers down the field, and that is exactly where the Eagles cornerbacks have gotten killed this season. Playing against the Eagles, DeSean Jackson caught three passes for 102 yards and a touchdown last week, Brandon LaFell caught five passes for 95 yards and a touchdown in week 13, Davante Adams caught five passes for 113 yards and two touchdowns in week 12, Doug Baldwin caught four passes for 104 yards in week 11, Julio Jones caught 10 passes for 135 yards and Taylor Gabriel caught one pass for 76 yards and a touchdown in week 10 and the list goes on. The Ravens vs Eagles matchup has a projected total of 40.5 points, and the Ravens have an implied team total of 23.25 points. Flacco’s price of $5,700 is very soft considering what he has done the last several weeks, as well as the positive matchup he has against a weak Philadelphia secondary. He makes for a solid GPP target, and rostering him allows you to spend up at other positions, something you’ll need to do with the running back position commanding such high salaries at this point in the year.

 

Marcus Mariota ($6,500)

Titans @ Chiefs

Projected Team Total:  17.1 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  20.4 points (3.1x salary multiple)

Marcus Mariota has made huge strides in his second year as a pro. For a guy who was looked at as a run-first quarterback in college, his production in the passing game has nothing short of incredible for a Titans team that lacks a true #1 option at wide receiver. For the year, Mariota has 25 touchdowns to only eight interceptions, with 3,086 yards passing and 348 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.  He’s averaging the seventh most DraftKings points per game at his position (20.1), which is more than several MVP candidates in David Carr and Matthew Stafford. Before last week’s matchup against Denver where Mariota scored only 7.32 points, he had been averaging 26 points over his last four games. What has made him a fantastic fantasy option though is his consistency. He’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in 10 of his 13 games, and has an established ceiling of 31.92 points, more than enough to justify playing him in GPP’s at $6,500. This week, the Titans travel to Kansas City to take on a Chiefs defense that has made a ton of big plays this season, but has also been very generous to opposing quarterbacks. The Chiefs stifled David Carr last week, holding him to only 6.2 points. Prior to that though, they had let up 17.18 points to Matt Ryan, 32.02 points to Trevor Siemian, 21.44 points to Jameis Winston, 27.5 points to Cam Newton, 22.48 points to Blake Bortles, 20.4 points to Andrew Luck and 28.68 points to Drew Brees. Mariota has been able to avoid the big mistakes, especially in the red zone where has yet to throw an interception in his NFL career. This gives him the advantage against a Chiefs defense that is super aggressive and is always looking to force a turnover, but that also leaves them susceptible to the big play. The Titans vs Chiefs matchup has a projected total of 42 points, and the Titans have an implied team total of 18.5 points. This is an important matchup for both of teams in terms of them making the playoffs and potentially having home-field advantage. I expect to see Mariota at his best, and although our IVC’s have him projected at 17.1 points, I would put that number closer to 22 points, which means he would be returning a 3.3x multiple. He also has the upside to blow through that number, making him a solid GPP option this week.

 

Kirk Cousins ($6,800)

Panthers @ Redskins

Projected Team Total:  28.5 points

Footballguys IVC Projection: 20.5 points (2.8x salary multiple)

Kirk Cousins has come a long way this season, starting the year off with a salary of $7,400, before falling all the way to $5,400 in week 10. His salary has stabilized in the mid $6,000’s and stands at $6,700 this week. Cousins is averaging 21.4 DraftKings points this season, has thrown for 23 touchdowns and 4,045 yards, and has a completion percentage of 67.5%. With respect to his contract, he gambled on himself…and he won. Cousins fantasy value peaked in weeks 11 and 12, with performances of 375 yards and three touchdowns against the Packers, and 449 yards and three touchdowns against the Cowboys, respectively. He has since come down to earth the last two weeks, but is poised for another quantum leap with a fantastic matchup against a Panthers defense that has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in five of their last seven games.  The Carolina secondary allowed 277 yards passing to Russell Wilson in week 13, 315 yards to David Carr in week 12, 285 yards to Drew Brees in week 11, 296 yards to Case Keenum in week nine, 363 yards to Carson Palmer in week eight, 465 yards to Drew Brees in week six and 503 yards to Matt Ryan in week four. The Redskins are a pass first team, and pocket passers have been able to shred the Carolina secondary frequently this season. Cousins’ price is firm but fair at $6,800, and he projects as a great GPP option due to his high ceiling. The Redskins vs Panthers matchup has a projected total of 51 points, second highest of the week, and the Redskins have an implied team total of 28.5 points, also second highest of the week. With a shootout looming at RFK stadium, Cousins has a great chance to be the highest scoring quarterback of the week, and the difference maker in GPP’s at his position. Play him with confidence this week, he’s earned it.

 

Running Backs:

Le'Veon Bell ($9,800)

Steelers @ Bengals

Projected Team Total:  23.5 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  27.4 points (2.7x salary multiple)

Who else could I start off this week’s running back recommendations with? Le'Veon Bell put on the performance of his life last week, deciding GPP’s in a fashion of, who had him, and who didn’t. If you didn’t have Bell in your lineup, you were toast, and that type of situation only happens several times per year, and rarely at the running back position. Bell sliced up the Bills defensive front to the tune of 236 yards rushing, three touchdowns and four receptions for 62 yards, good for 54.8 points and the title of best performance this season by any player. It was an amazing performance, but even better when you consider that Bell’s long rush was 33 yards and his longest reception was 32 yards. So even if you took away his longest rush, he still gained over 200 yards rushing. That is a rare feat. It was Bell’s fourth consecutive game with 100+ yards rushing, and the fifth time in five games that he scored more than 26 DraftKings points. Bell has been jockeying with David Johnson as the best running back this season, and with his performance last week, he’s now averaging more points that Johnson (28.7 for Bell, 27.5 for Johnson). This week Bell gets a Bengals defense that is ranked 25th in rushing defense this season, allowing 119.1 yards per game. The Bengals are ranked 22nd in terms of points surrendered to opposing running backs. Last week, the Bengals gave up 113 yards on 10 carries to Isaiah Crowell, which was only the second 100+ yard game that they had let up on the season. The matchup is most likely a neutral one for Bell, but that shouldn’t stop you from playing him in GPP’s. He has become the focal point of the Steelers offense, and with Pittsburgh fighting for a playoff spot, he will garner even more touches than normal. The Steelers vs Bengals matchup has a projected total of 44 points, and the Steelers have an implied team total of 23.5 points. These divisional matchups are usually very tight games, and there is some bad blood left over from last year’s Steeler playoff victory, although it should be mentioned that there is always some sort of bad blood simmering in this matchup. Bell has proven that he has the upside to outperform his growing salary ($9,800), and despite reaching a salary level that we have never seen before at the running back position, it is hard to argue with his production. Bell is on a level that only David Johnson can match, and they have both proven to have the type of ceiling that could separate GPP’s into those who rostered them, and those who didn’t. I will have somewhere between 20-25% exposure to each, because at this stage of the season, I don’t want to be on the outside looking in when one of them goes for 40+ (or even 50+ points).

 

 

Carlos Hyde ($5,900)

49ers @ Falcons

Projected Team Total:  18.75 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  15.5 points (2.6x salary multiple)

We are going to switch things up a bit this week, instead of targeting the 49ers with opposing running backs, we are going to target Carlos Hyde against a porous Falcons defensive front. There are quite a few fair reasons why Hyde may not be the best target this week. His team has an implied total of 18.75 points, and the Falcons have an implied team total of 32.75 points, the highest of any team this week. This would lead you to believe that the 49ers will most likely be passing the ball for most of the game as they play catchup against a formidable Falcons offense that leads the NFL in scoring by more than five points over the next closest team (Atlanta 32.9 points, Oakland and New Orleans 27.5 points). Also, the Falcons are giving up the most passing yards per game of any team in the NFL (275.2 yards per game). Again, not necessarily strong points for rostering Hyde this week.  Now with all of that said, the 49ers have on chance of beating Atlanta on Sunday, and that is to control the pace of the game by using Hyde early and often. Hyde is a very talented running back stuck on a very bad team, but occasionally his talent shines through and overtakes the awful stink that is the 49ers organization, present day. Last week was one of those times. Hyde carried the 49ers offense, and they nearly beat the Jets in overtime, but instead gave Bryce Petty his first professional victory. Hyde gained 193 yards on 17 carries, and caught one pass for seven yards and a touchdown. Hyde averaged a ridiculous 11.4 yards per carry, and his long gain of the game was a 47 yard scamper. If you take away his long gain, he still averaged 9.1 yards per carry. The 49ers vs Falcons matchup has a projected game total of 51.5 points, and the 49ers have an implied team total of 18.75 points. One of the reasons I am suggesting him for GPP’s is the fact that they he will be low owned in tournaments.  When you factor in his salary ($5,900) and his established upside (30 points), he has the ability to be a difference maker in GPP’s. The Falcons have allowed three running backs to score multiple touchdowns on them this season (Christine Michael, Melvin Gordon III and Ryan Mathews), and I am predicting that Hyde will be the fourth this weekend.

 

Jeremy Hill ($5,800)

Bengals @ Browns

Projected Team Total:  23.75 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  17.9 points (3.x salary multiple)

 

 

Wide Receiver

 

Jordy Nelson ($7,300)

Packers @ Bears

Projected Team Total:  23.25 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  18.5 points (2.7x salary multiple)                    

Jordy Nelson has put together a fantastic season coming off his second major knee surgery of his NFL career. Nelson has caught 75 passes for 913 yards and 12 touchdowns, and with three weeks left in the season, he has a chance to match or exceed his career high of 15 touchdowns in a season. Nelson caught touchdown passes in 10 of his 13 games, and two of those games he caught two touchdown passes. He’s averaging 18.9 DraftKings points per game, and has an established ceiling of 33.6 points. Nelson has scored 15+ points in nine different games this season, which means a lot when you consider the breakout season of Davante Adams and the presence of the often injured Randall Cobb. Regardless, Nelson is Aaron Rodgers go-to receiver both in the red zone and on third down. With the Packers running game essentially non-existent, Nelson’s hands become even more important because Rodgers is passing on a majority of third and short situations. This week the Packers travel to take on a Bears team that despite being out of the playoff race, is still playing hard. In their first meeting, Nelson took a backseat to Davante Adams (13 receptions, 132 yards and two touchdowns), Randall Cobb (11 catches for 95 yards and a touchdown) and Ty Montgomery (10 catches for 66 yards). Those three receivers had a combined 44 targets in the game, while Nelson saw only four targets for which he had one reception for nine yards. The odds of that happening again are essentially zero, so this is a matchup that Nelson should dominate. The Packers vs Bears matchup has a projected game total of 40.5, and the Packers have an implied team total of 23.25. Nelson’s price has not caught up to his value, especially because his target volume is stable on a team that cannot run the ball. In his last seven games, Nelson is averaging 6.8 receptions for 84.5 yards and one touchdown on 10.8 targets per game. He’s super consistent, with a high ceiling and guaranteed red zone targets, and he comes at a soft price given his production. He’s as close to they come as unfadeable in GPP’s, and I’ll have significant exposure to him this weekend, and the rest of the season.

 

Emmanuel Sanders ($6,600)

Patriots @ Broncos

Projected Team Total:  20.5 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  16.9 points (2.7x salary multiple)                    

When it comes to wide receivers, this year has been rough in terms of trying to pick out the top tier and who is going to produce in each given week. For the most part, spending up at wide receiver has been a fool’s errand, which is incredible considering how consistent and dominant the top tier at wide receiver was last year. The key this year has been to spend up at running back and find the value receivers who have a stable floor with a high ceiling. In that regard, Sanders checks off most of the boxes. Due to inconsistent quarterback play, he’s had five games of single digit points, but he’s had only game this season where he’s had less than eight targets. Now that Trevor Siemian has settled into his role and is starting to sling it much more often, Sanders value has increased dramatically. Sanders has an established ceiling of 35.7 points, and that is what really makes him valuable at his current salary ($6,600), especially as a GPP option. He’s scored 30+ points three times this season, the same number of times as Antonio Brown, Mike Evans and AJ Green, and they are the only four players to have done that this year. This week the Broncos host the Patriots in a game that could very well decide their season. The Patriots rank 15th in passing defense, allowing 247.8 yards per game and they rank 7th in points allowed to opposing wide receivers. That doesn’t mean they are immune to big games though, as they gave up 109 yards and a touchdown on five receptions to Quincy Enunwa, eight catches for 106 yards to DeVante Parker, six catches for 59 yards and three touchdowns to Doug Baldwin, ten catches for 135 yards to Jarvis Landry and eight catches for 81 yards and two touchdowns to Larry Fitzgerald. The Patriots can be attacked in the intermediate passing game, and that is where Sanders thrives. He is dangerous in open space and can create big plays after the catch, something that the Patriots have struggled stopping at times this season. The Broncos vs Patriots matchup has a projected total of 44 points, and the Broncos have an implied team total of 20.5 points. Between Sanders’ target volume, his ceiling and his soft price, he makes for one of the best value plays at the wide receiver position. This game could either be a dog fight or it could turn into a shootout, but either way Sanders will play a big part in it for the Broncos.

 

Marqise Lee ($4,000)

Jaguars @ Texans

Projected Team Total:  16.5 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  12.4 points (3.1x salary multiple)

In the dumpster fire that has been the Jacksonville Jaguars season, Marqise Lee the “Albino Tiger” has emerged as the #2 receiver that Jacksonville envisioned him to be when they drafted him out of USC. Lee was super productive in college, and had the pedigree to be a big part of the young and growing Jaguars offense. The problem was Lee couldn’t stay healthy, hence the nickname “Albino Tiger”, that was slapped on him from offensive coordinator Greg Olsen, because Olsen said it was a rarity to see Lee on the practice field, but when you did, it was a treat. The nickname is hysterical, but Lee has done well to change the view of him as a player who couldn’t get on the field because of injuries. With Allen Hurns failing to build on his breakout season from a year ago, Lee has stepped into the role of the #2 receiver opposite Allen Robinson. Lee has two 100+ yard games on the season, has caught at least four passes in 10 of his 13 games and is averaging 7.5 targets over his last seven games.  Lee has picked the perfect time to showcase his game, as Blake Bortles was desperately in need of a playmaker in the short passing game, as well as a receiver who can operate out of the slot and win matchups in the middle of the field. This week Lee has another great chance to build on his breakout year, as the Jaguars travel to Houston to take on a tough Texans secondary. The Texans rank 5th in passing defense, allowing 212.8 yards per game and they rank 6th in fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers.  With that said, the Texans have allowed big games to opposing receivers, including TY Hilton (9-115-1), Jordy Nelson (8-118-1), Dontrelle Inman (6-119-1) and Allen Robinson (9-107-1). Houston has given up 100+ yards and a touchdown to an opposing wide receiver in four of their last five games. Last time these two teams faced off, Lee had four catches for 50 yards on six targets. The Houston vs Jacksonville game has a projected total of 39 points, and the Jaguars have an implied team total of 16.5 points. That doesn’t necessarily bode well for Lee, however that total is mostly due to Blake Bortles extreme inconsistencies this season. When he does go off though, that means big things for Lee and Allen Robinson. At $4,000, Lee has a steady target volume and a stable floor to go along with an established ceiling of 20.7 points. You have to find a wide receiver in the sub $5,000 range if you are going to spend up at running back, and Lee is one of the players that I think has a stable enough floor with a high enough ceiling to take a shot on in that price range.

 

Tight End

Travis Kelce ($5,900)

Titans @ Chiefs

Projected Team Total:  23.5 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  16.8 points (2.8x salary multiple)

If you were able to see the Kansas City offense transforming before our eyes going back four weeks, you were more than likely to have seen Travis Kelce’s ascent before the rest of the DFS crowd. The Chiefs owned the most conservative and boring offense in the NFL for the first nine weeks of this season, but then Tyreke Hill emerged and Travis Kelce started to go wild. Hill was able to bring big play ability to an offense that desperately needed it, and in doing so, he took the pressure off of Travis Kelce, who had been seeing double teams for nearly the entire season. Kelce took advantage of one on one coverage, and now he is looking for his fifth consecutive 100+ yard game!  He’s scored 20.3, 21.1, 25.0 and 18.1 points in his last four games, and he did not have to score a single touchdown to pad his point totals. Over those four games, Kelce has 29 catches on 42 targets for 450 yards, almost half of his 916 receiving yards on the season. The most impressive part has been how he is doing it. He is lined up on the outside, in the slot, on the line and even in the backfield. If you were to watch Kelce run his routes, you’d see, in my opinion, the best route runner at the tight end position. He has the size to dominate cornerbacks who try and cover him, and the speed to leave linebackers in the dust. This week Kelce and the Chiefs host a Titans defense that is 31st in passing yards allowed (274.9 yards per game), and they rank 18th in points allowed to opposing tight ends. Kelce has a fantastic matchup, and given the momentum that he has coming into the game, he deserves to be the tight end that you have the most exposure to this weekend in GPP. I know I will, and it won’t be close as I’ll most likely end up with 40% exposure to Kelce.

 


More articles from BJ VanderWoude

See all

More articles on: Daily FF

See all

More articles on: DraftKings

See all