Bink Inc. Week 14
Cam Newton ($7,200)
Chargers @ Panthers
Projected Team Total: 24.75 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 18.8 points (2. 6x salary multiple)
Cam Newton has largely been a disappointment this season, totaling only 14 passing touchdowns to eight interceptions, while also rushing for five touchdowns. Last year, Cam finished the season with 35 passing touchdowns to only 10 interceptions, and he was without his top wideout, Kelvin Benjamin for the entire season. This made him a popular choice early in fantasy drafts, and in DFS, he was one of the highest priced players at his position to start the season ($7,700 in week 1, $8,100 in week 6). His salary has dropped all the way down to $6,600 in week 13 and stands at $7,200 this week. His problem this year has been his consistency, as he’s had games of 12.48, 12.38, 12.78 and 14.6 mixed in with games of 30.98, 34.82, 22.44 and 24.84 points. The key to predicting his success has been to play the matchups, and that is why he makes for a great GPP play this weekend. The Carolina Panthers host the San Diego Chargers in what is an advantageous matchup for Cam and the Carolina offense. San Diego is 27th in the NFL in passing defense, allowing 271 yards per game. The Chargers are also 24th in scoring defense, allowing 24.6 points per game. They have been solid against the run, ranking 3rd in the NFL, allowing only 89.1 yards per game, so it looks like Newton will be calling a lot of passing plays in this matchup. In games where Newton has thrown more than 35 passes, he has averaged 30.2 DraftKings points. The Carolina vs San Diego matchup has a projected total of 48.5 points, and the Panthers have an implied team total of 24.75 points, 7th highest on the weekend and 5th highest among home teams. The Chargers have an implied team total of 23.75 points, so it should be a very close game where both offenses are firing deep into the 4th quarter. Although Newton doesn’t appear to have the ceiling that he had last year, where he was scoring 40+ points with some regularity, he still has 30+ point upside that would return a 4x-5x multiple on his salary. Newton was benched at the beginning of last week’s game due to him not meeting the dress code for away games. Seeing as Newton has had a way of taking slights against him and channeling it into his play, I’d expect to see him at his best this Sunday. He makes for a solid GPP play.
Matt Ryan ($6,500)
Falcons @ 49ers
Projected Team Total: 25.5 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 20.4 points (3.1x salary multiple)
Ryan is having an MVP caliber season while leading the Falcons to a 7-5 record, which has them tied with the Bucs for the lead in the NFC South. Ryan has thrown for 3,813 yards with 27 touchdown and 7 interceptions. He’s averaging 23.4 DraftKings points per game, which is second only to Drew Brees (25 ppg) among quarterbacks. His priced has dropped to $6,500 due to a three game stretch where he has not eclipsed 19 points. During that stretch he has only four touchdowns to three interceptions, but he also played some of the best secondaries in the league in Arizona and Kansas City. This week he gets a Rams team that is 9th in the NFL in passing defense, allowing 231 yards per game. While their stats say they are very good against the pass, the Rams have had a lot of trouble containing true pocket passers. Drew Brees sliced up the Rams secondary to the tune of 310 yards and four touchdowns, while Jameis Winston had his best game of the year against the Rams, throwing for 410 yards and three touchdowns. The Rams vs Falcons matchup has a projected game total of 45 points, and the Falcons have an implied team total of 25.5 points, the highest of any road team on the main slate this weekend. Ryan’s price is very soft at $6,500 and considering the Falcons are in a fight to win the NFC South, I would expect to see Ryan at his best over the last four games of the season. He has an established ceiling of 39.52 points this year, and has two other 30+ point games, so his upside more than justifies his salary. He is a player that I would suggest having a lot of exposure to, as he will more than likely slip through the cracks with Drew Brees, Jameis Winston, Philip Rivers and Russell Wilson all having advantageous matchups this weekend.
Jameis Winston ($6,700)
Saints @ Bucs
Projected Team Total: 26.75 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 19.3 points (2.8x salary multiple)
Winston has made great strides as quarterback and a leader this season, piloting the Bucs to a 7-5 record and a share of the lead in the NFC South. The Bucs host the Saints on Sunday is what is being called a make or break for Winston and the Buc’s season. The Saints are 5-7 and not out of the playoffs just yet, and a win against the Bucs on the road would go a long way in helping them, while a loss would effectively eliminate them. Winston is having a strong season, throwing for 3,180 yards with 23 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He’s averaging 19.6 DraftKings points per game, and has eclipsed 20+ points in six of his 12 games. While Mike Evans is planting his flag as one of the best wide receivers in the game today, Winston has not had much else to work with. Vincent Jackson is out for the year, but age has caught up to him and he wasn’t providing much help to begin with this year. He’s made Cameron Brate into a respectable option at tight end, but that’s about as far as it goes in terms of Bucs receivers. This shows in his rather low 61.7% completion percentage, especially for a guy who is averaging 36 passing attempts per game. He’s been much better at home this season, throwing for 12 touchdowns to five interceptions compared to 11 touchdowns to seven interceptions on the road. This is good news because he has his best matchup of the year this week at home the Saints. New Orleans ranks 31st in the league in pass defense, allowing 276.8 passing yards per game, while ranking 29th in scoring average, allowing 26.4 points per game. The Bucs vs Saints matchup has a projected total of 51.5 points and the Bucs have an implied team total of 26.75 points, the highest of any team this weekend. Winston’s price ($6,700) puts him smack dab in the middle of some other good quarterbacks in great matchups, namely Philip Rivers ($6,600) and Russell Wilson ($6,600). Both are solid options this week, but I am leaning towards Winston because he is the only one who is playing in a divisional matchup, and the Saints have allowed multiple touchdown passes in eight of their 12 games. Last week, Mathew Stafford lit up the Saints to the tune of 341 yards passing and two touchdowns. Winston has an established ceiling of 30.5 points, which provides merit for playing him in GPP’s. The Saints vs Bucs game is one that you are going to want to have as much action as you can in, and it doesn’t get better than the quarterback on either side. Drew Brees could have easily been my recommendation, but I chose Winston because I think he has the ability to be the best PP$ play at his position this week. There are roughly 6-8 quarterbacks this week that deserve exposure, but I would still recommend Winston in the 15% range. I will likely have closer to 20% exposure on my teams this week.
LeSean McCoy ($8,200)
Steelers @ Bills
Projected Team Total: 21.75 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 18.2 points (2.2x salary multiple)
I am somewhat ashamed that it took me this long to recommend LeSean McCoy in this column, as he is having a tremendous season and been a constant source of value for my teams. McCoy has rushed for 949 yards in 11 games, while averaging 5.5 yards per carry and scoring 10 touchdowns. He’s also caught 35 passes for 236 yards and one touchdown, and caught at least four passes in six of his 11 games. McCoy has always been a very good receiver out of the backfield, but this year he’s paired those skills with the ability to dominate as a rusher. McCoy has sort of flown under the radar thus far this season, due to the MVP caliber performance of David Johnson, Leveon Bell continuing to lead the Steelers, Ezekiel Elliot’s incredible rookie season, the breakout year for Melvin Gordon III and the Exotic Smashmouth’s success with DeMarco Murray. What has impressed me the most about McCoy is his ceiling. He’s scored at least 29 points in four games, and has an established ceiling of 36.2 points. That puts him in the same range as Johnson (38.5), Bell (37.1), Elliot (43.9) and Gordon (39.1). Considering McCoy is $1,600 cheaper than Johnson, he is someone that you should strongly consider for GPP’s this week. Bills host a Steelers team that suddenly finds themselves looking up at the Ravens in the AFC North standings. The Steelers rank 6th in the NFL in rushing defense, allowing only 92 yards per game. However, they rank 29th in points allowed to running backs. McCoy has the ability to rack up points in the passing game, which should come easy against a Steelers defense that has given up 63 catches, 626 yards and five touchdowns to opposing running backs. The five touchdowns are tied with the Colts and the Falcons for most in the NFL. The Steelers have allowed some monster games to running backs this season, but none more so than Jay Ajayi’s soul-crushing 204 yard, two touchdown performance in week 6. LeGarrette Blount ran over the Steelers defensive front to the tune of 127 yards and two touchdowns, while Ezekiel Elliot also ran for 114 yards and two touchdowns. With the exception of the running backs mentioned above, Matt Forte (12 rushes for 53 yards) and Spencer Ware (13 rushes for 82 yards, 6.31 ypc), the Steelers have not faced any above average running backs, and the ones they did take on, ran around them, through them and over them. The Steelers vs Bills matchup has a projected game total of 46.5 points and the Bills have an implied team total of 21.75 points. The Bills are one game out of the last AFC wild card spot, and need to win out. Shady McCoy is in a great spot, and I expect one of his best performances of the year on Sunday. Play him with confidence, he is going to run hard against any Pennsylvania team, but especially the one he grew up rooting for.
Matt Forte ($6,800)
Jets @ 49ers
Projected Team Total: 21 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 16.2 points (2.3x salary multiple)
Forte has seen his role change drastically after leaving the Bears for greener pastures in New York. During his time in Chicago, Forte was used heavily in the passing game and was rarely given goal line carries. It is amazing that Forte has never has never scored 10 rushing touchdowns in a season, as his career high is nine, and he averaged only 5.6 rushing touchdowns per game. This year could be that year though, as Forte has eight touchdowns heading into a great matchup this weekend. Forte made his mark as a receiver, catching 102 passes during the 2014 season for with the Bears and averages 64.5 catches per season for his career. Which makes it all the more puzzling that he has only has 29 catches for 256 yards this year with the Jets. The Jets have made Forte their bell cow back, feeding him 17.5 rushes per game. The results have been mixed, as Forte is averaging a paltry 3.7 yards per carry, but he has had some really good games this year that showcased his ceiling and justify his price at $6,800. In week three, Forte rushed 30 times for 100 yards and three touchdowns, which resulted in 33.9 DraftKings points. In week 7, Forte also rushed 30 times for 100 yards and one touchdown, while also catching four passes for 54 yards and a touchdown, resulting in 33.4 DraftKings points. The Jets vs 49ers matchup has a projected game total of 44 points, and the Jets have an implied team total of 21 points. The 49ers rank dead last in the NFL in run defense, allowing 169.3 yards per game. That is nearly 30 more yards per game than the Browns average…THE BROWNS! As is customary with this column, we continue to target running backs against the historically bad run defense of the 49ers. The 49ers have allowed nine different 100+ yard runners, four multi-touchdown games including three touchdowns to both Jordan Howard and LeSean McCoy, 17 total rushing touchdowns and three receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs. The only concern about Forte is the quarterback situation for the Jets. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been pretty bad this season, but he can still move the ball. Bryce Petty has a live arm that can make all the throws, but he lacks polish and experience in the NFL, and his results so far point to him having trouble creating scoring opportunities if he was to play the whole game. There are two ways of looking the inexperience at quarterback affecting Forte. Either Forte doesn’t is the victim of bad play from Petty and doesn’t get any red zone opportunities or Forte is force-fed the ball because of Petty and ends up having a monster game on the strength of volume. Regardless, I think Forte is a fantastic GPP option this week to pair alongside one of the top five running backs. He has 30+ point upside, and we’ve seen running backs nearly win GPP’s on their own after playing the 49ers, so he deserves significant exposure.
Jeremy Hill ($5,800)
Bengals @ Browns
Projected Team Total: 23.75 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 17.9 points (3.x salary multiple)
Since Gio Bernard was put on injured reserve and lost for the season, Jeremy Hill has stepped up and been the bell cow back for the Bengals, but he has not had the type of production that would garner him having that role next year when Bernard returns. In his two starts, Hill has run 35 times for 54 yards and one touchdown. His 1.5 yards per carry is awful, but he has been able to maintain a semblance of value by being active in the passing game. Over that two game span, Hill has caught eight passes for 73 yards. The good news for Hill is that he faces a Browns team that he destroyed in his first meeting with them in a 31-17 week 7 win. In that game, Hill ran nine times for 168 and a touchdown, while also catching two passes for 24 yards and 30.2 DraftKings points. It was Hill’s best game by far this season. The Browns rank 31st in the NFL in run defense, allowing 140.6 rushing yards per game. The Browns defense is one of the worst units in the NFL, ranking 22nd in passing defense (259.4 yards per game), 31st in scoring defense (28 points per game) and 31st in total defense (400 yards per game). The Bengals vs Browns matchup has a projected game total of 42.5 points and the Bengals have an implied team total of 23.75 points. This game has Hill’s name written all over it, and despite the Bengals being without AJ Green, they should have no problem moving the ball against a porous Browns secondary. Although Hill has been inconsistent with his yardage totals, he has scored touchdowns in six of his 12 games, and is averaging 4.0 yards per carry on the season even with his past two games included. Generally speaking, his salary of $5,800 would be pushing the boundaries of value if he were not playing the Browns, but considering his past performance against them, he is definitely in play this week in GPPs. In fact, he makes for an excellent #2 running back or flex option to be paired with another stud running and/or Matt Forte. Despite the poor production the last two weeks, you can play him with confidence this weekend.
Jordy Nelson ($6,800)
Seahawks @ Packers
Projected Team Total: 21.25 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 18.5 points (2.7x salary multiple)
Jordy Nelson has bounced back nicely from the knee injury that took all of the 2015 season away from him. He’s caught 69 passes for 872 yards and 10 touchdowns, and with four weeks of the season left, he should finish with statistics that mirror what he had done before the injury. Nelson caught touchdown passes in the first four games of the season (two in week 3), and has touchdown catches in five of his last six games, making that nine of 12 games this season in which he has caught a touchdown. He’s averaging 18.7 DraftKings points per game, and has an established ceiling of 33.6 points. Nelson also has two other games with 28+ points, and has 15+ points in eight of his 12 games. In short, he’s been super consistent, while also flashing the upside needed to justify paying up for him in a year in which running backs have dominated the fantasy landscape. What has me excited about Nelson this week, is his price has dropped significantly to $6,800 and it is hard to tell why. The Packers do have a tough matchup against a Seattle defense that ranks 9th in passing defense, allowing 231 passing yards per game and they rank 7th against wide receivers. They have however had difficulty stopping elite wide receivers. Julio Jones had seven catches for 139 yards and a touchdown, Mike Evans caught eight passes for 104 yards and two touchdowns and Brandon Marshall had four catches for 89 yards and a touchdown. They have also been exploited by lesser talent, like Robert Woods ripping off 10 catches for 162 yards and Ten Ginn Jr. catching five passes for 80 yards and a touchdown. The Packers vs Seahawks game has a projected game total of 45.5 points and the Packers have an implied team total of 21.25 points. Nelson’s attractive salary matched with his upside makes him a great GPP value play that could be the difference between winning and losing this weekend. Play him with confidence.
Emmanuel Sanders ($5,700)
Bengals @ Ravens
Projected Team Total: 21.25 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 15.1 points (2.7x salary multiple)
Despite the inconsistent play at quarterback for the Denver Broncos, Emmanuel Sanders has managed to have another productive season. With four games still left to go, Sanders has caught 64 passes for 858 yards and four touchdowns. While consistency has been his strong suit in the past, there have been some bumps in the road this season, specifically five games in which Sanders has finished with under 10 DraftKings points. He has made up for those unproductive games with games of 35.7 points and 32.2 points, and due to his inconsistency, he was very low owned during those weeks and swung many GPPs in favor of those who played him. Trevor Siemian is questionable to play this week, so there is cause for some concern when considering whether or not to play Sanders. The matchup against Tennessee is a good one though, as the Titans ranks 26th in the NFL in passing defense, allowing 270.3 yards per game. They rank 31st in points allowed against wide receivers, and they have given up seven 100+ yard games and 13 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. It gets better for Sanders though, as the Titans released Perrish Cox after their week 12 game and promoted Antwon Blake from the practice squad. Blake graded out as one of the worst cornerbacks in the league in 2015, and he had the dubious title of someone who allowed more than 1000 receiving yards during coverage. He will be matched up with Sanders, and I won’t be surprised to see him following his jock around for most of the day after Sanders fakes him out of it. The Broncos vs Titans matchup has a projected total of 43.5 points and the Broncos have an implied team total of 21.25 points. Sanders makes for a sneaky GPP play this week. H comes at a very soft price and has the upside to more than justify his salary. Get him in your lineups and reap the rewards of one of the best wide receiver performances of the week.
Delanie Walker ($4,400)
Broncos @ Titans
Projected Team Total: 22.25 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 13.5 points (3x salary multiple)
Walker got off to a rather slow start this year, mixing in some good games with some very bad games in the first half of the season. With that said, he has bounced back and performed very well during the second half of the season, and he’s been a big part of the reason why the Titans are 6-6 and leading the AFC South. The Titans do not have a dominant #1 receiver, instead relying on a group of #2’s and 3’s to perform well in aggregate. Walker is their de-facto #1, and in terms of tight ends, he is definitely a dangerous weapon who is constantly exploiting mismatches against opposing linebackers. Walker has touchdowns in five of his last eight games, and has an established ceiling of 30.4 points, one of the top performances by a tight end this year. The Titans take on the Broncos this week, and the Broncos have been bad historically at defending the tight end position. That trend has continued this season, with the Broncos allowing big games to Greg Olsen (7 catches for 73 yards), Hunter Henry (6 catches for 83 yards and a touchdown) and Travis Kelce (8 catches for 101 yards). The Broncos vs Titans matchup has a projected total of 43.5 points and the Titans have an implied team total of 22.25 points. Walker’s salary has dropped to $4,400, a very soft price for a tight end who has been consistent over his last eight games as well as a guy who has flashed the upside needed to be a difference maker in GPP’s. I’m not going to question it, and neither should you. Just get him in your lineups and have significant exposure to him across your teams this weekend. With the Titans fighting for a playoff spot, Walker should be very involved on Sunday, making him one of the best value plays at any position.
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