Bink Inc.: Week 13

Breaking down the DraftKings player pool

Here at Bink Inc, my aim is to break down the DraftKings player pool and give you the skinny on the various GPP options at your disposal.  I will be going through all positions and all pricing tiers, as well as dropping GPP lineup construction knowledge. Due to DraftKings new regulations regarding selling lineups, we can’t actually give you pre-built lineups.  With that said, each week the Bink Inc. article will provide you with all of the information you need, so that you can craft lineups from our suggestions. In many ways this is better for our readers, as you will become familiar with the different strategies for GPP lineup construction and be able to identify how value shifts from position to position depending on the pricing each week

Quarterbacks

Carson Palmer ($6,000)

Redskins @ Cardinals

Projected Team Total:  25.5 points

Footballguys IVC Projection: 18.8 points (3.5x salary multiple)

Palmer’s salary continues to rise and fall dramatically with each passing week due to the inconsistency of both his play and that of his wide receivers. Palmer’s highest price tag was in week 1 ($7,100), and it has since has dropped all the way to $5,300 last week before normalizing at $6,000 this week. His value is tough to peg because his yardage totals are among the best in the league, but David Johnson is converting a high percentage of the Cardinals red zone opportunities. To date, Palmer has only 15 touchdown passes, which equates to a touchdown for every 27.6 pass attempts. For comparison, Drew Brees is the high water mark, throwing a touchdown for every 15.2 passes, but other quarterbacks around Palmer’s salary are still remarkably better than he is. Specifically, Kirk Cousins (21.85), Colin Kaepernick (20.8), Jameis Winston (18.45) and Ryan Tannehill (21.9). This is a bitter pill to swallow because GPP’s are all about upside, and quarterbacks depend on throwing for multiple touchdowns to reach their ceiling. Palmer doesn’t have the rushing ability to pad his stats in that respect, so he depends almost solely on reaching 300 yards to achieve a small bonus to his totals. His yardage totals have been very consistent this season. Palmer is averaging 293 yards passing per game, good for fifth in the league and he’s failed to break 270 yards passing in only two of his 10 games. This week he gets an excellent matchup against a Redskins secondary that ranks 16th in the league in passing defense, allowing 252.9 passing yards per game. Washington has allowed four 300+ yard passers this year, and two games of three or more touchdown passes. The Cardinals vs Redskins matchup has a projected game total of 49 points, and the Cardinals have an implied team total of 25.5 points. Palmer has the upside to put up a 300+ yard, three touchdown effort this week against the Redskins, but he is being held back by Michael Floyd and JJ Nelson, both of whom dropped multiple passes in each of the last two games. Even so, this is a game that should be a shootout, and Palmer’s price is too attractive to fade. His yardage total consistency gives him a stable floor, and if he can convert just two touchdown passes, Palmer will return a 4x multiple on his salary.

Colin Kaepernick ($6,100)

49ers @ Bears                                                                          

Projected Team Total:  21.75 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  19.5 points (3.1x salary multiple)

Count me among the scores of people who did not expect much from Colin Kaepernick upon his return to the starting quarterback position for the 49ers. His highly publicized political stances certainly contributed to the reasons why his commitment was put into question, and the fact of the matter was his play had dropped off dramatically in recent years. With Chip Kelly in town, there was some optimism that Kaepernick would finally be put in a position to succeed, with a coach and offensive philosophy who knew how to utilize his athleticism and mask his deficiencies as a pocket passer. It took nearly half a season, but if the last couple of games are any indication of what is to come, Kaepernick’s career is on the rise once again. Since taking the reigns as the 49ers starting quarterback in week 6, Kaepernick has totaled ten passing touchdowns to three interceptions, and is averaging 205.7 passing yards per game. His ability as a rusher has always driven his fantasy value though, and in that respect, he has not disappointed. He’s totaled 373 rushing yards in just seven games, culminating in a 113 yard rushing effort to go along with 296 passing yards in last week’s game against the Dolphins. He also threw for 396 yards against the Saints in week 9, so there is certainly upside for him in the right matchups. This week is definitely one of those matchups, as the 49ers travel to Chicago to take on a Bears team that has allowed three 300+ yard passers and six games of multiple touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. The 49ers vs Bears matchup has a game total of 43.5 points, and the 49ers have an implied team total of 21.75 points. Kaepernick should also find room to run due to an aggressive Bears defensive front that likes to blitz. Dak Prescott (4/36/1) and Marcus Mariota (4/46) have a similar skillset to Kaepernick with respect to being able to run, and both were able to pad their stats accordingly against the Bears. At $6,100, Kaepernick’s salary is soft when compared to his established ceiling (37.1) points. He makes for an excellent GPP play this week, as his floor is stable and his ceiling is high enough to justify his inexpensive salary.

Derek Carr ($6,500)

Bills @ Raiders

Projected Team Total:  26 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  18.9points (3x salary multiple)

If the season ended right now, Derek Carr would have my vote for MVP. All he’s done is take a Raiders team that had been woefully inept for the better part of five years and turn them into a 9-2 squad that is leading the division that contains last year’s Super Bowl champions. The AFC West is one of only two divisions where all four teams have at least five wins. Carr has made a big strides in his third year as the Raiders starter, improving his completion percentage by over five points, and his QBR has jumped from 44.4 in 2015 to 64.4 in 2016. He’s averaging 283 passing yards per game, and he’s thrown for multiple touchdown in six of 11 games this season. As good as he’s been for the Raiders, he’s been even better for fantasy owners. Carr has totaled at least 22 DraftKings points in seven of his 11 games, and he has the highest scoring game of any quarterback this season, a 513 yard, four touchdown performance against Tampa Bay in week eight that resulted in 39.82 DraftKings points. This week the Raiders play host to the Bills in what is projected to be a high scoring affair. The matchup has a projected game total of 49 points, and the Raiders have an implied team total of 26 points, which is the fifth highest of any team this week. The Bills have been solid on defense this year, ranking 8th in passing defense, 21st in rushing defense, 13th in scoring defense and 10th in all-around. They have been prone to let up big games when playing against the upper echelon of quarterbacks though. Tom Brady torched them to the tune of 315 yards passing and four touchdowns, while Russell Wilson threw for 282 yards and two touchdowns, while rushing for another touchdown. The Bills, while stingy letting up passing touchdowns, were quite generous to Ryan Fitzpatrick (374 yards passing), Carson Palmer (287 yards passing) and Case Keenum (271 yards passing) with respect to passing yards. The Bills have to travel from the east coast which is never easy, and on top of that they have a surging Raiders team that is gaining confidence every week. Carr’s price of $6,500 is more than fair considering his consistency and established upside, and in a game that projects to be a shootout, he makes for a fantastic GPP option. Stacking Michael Crabtree and/or Amari Cooper alongside Carr this week is a great play, and one that I expect to pay off handsomely.

Running Backs

Le'Veon Bell ($9,200)

Giants @ Steelers

Projected Team Total:  27.25 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  24.5 points (2.7 salary multiple)

Le'Veon Bell’s year has largely been overshadowed by David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliot, and to a smaller degree by Demarco Murray and Melvin Gordon III. Missing the first four games due to suspension didn’t help his cause, but since he’s returned in week four, he’s been nothing short of incredible. In just eight games, Bell has amassed 57 receptions for 437 yards and a touchdown to go along with 699 yards rushing and three touchdowns. Bell has caught at least four passes in every game he’s played, and has scored at least 24 points in all but two of his games. Bell’s ability as a receiver gives him as stable a floor as any running back in the league, but he is not a one trick pony. Over his last two games, Bell has rushed for 146 and 120 yards, respectively, and he’s scored a rushing touchdown in three consecutive games. Bell’s salary has ballooned to $9,200, which is $1,700 higher than it was in week 4 ($7,500), but it is hard to argue against him as your GPP anchor when he is stuffing the stat sheet week in and week out. This week the Steelers host a Giants team that has won six consecutive games and is playing each week with their playoff hopes on the line. The Giants run defense is ranked 5th in the league, allowing 89.1 yards per game on average, and they have yet to allow a 100 yard rusher. Their pass defense is ranked 24th (264.7 yards per game), but that is not an accurate representation of their current play, as the Giants secondary is playing lights out as of late behind the emergence of Landon Collins. One specific area where Bell should be able to win is coming out of the backfield on screens, as the Giants have allowed six different running backs to catch at least four passes against them this year. The Steelers vs Giants matchup has a projected game total of 48.5 points, and the Steelers have an implied team total of 27.25 points. This game projects to be a close, high scoring contest, which means Bell will be seeing carries and catches late into the fourth quarter. While paying up for Bell at $9,200 doesn’t leave you much room elsewhere, his sheer volume makes the play worthwhile. I’m expecting something along the lines of 150 total yards, six catches and a touchdown from Bell, which would put him in the 27-30 point range. Normally you are looking for at least a 4.5-5x return on salary, but if you can get a 3x return from your highest salaried player, you are doing well. Play him with confidence this week.

Jordan Howard ($6,900)

49ers @ Bears

Projected Team Total:  21.75 points

If you are a regular reader of this column, it should come as no surprise that Jordan Howard gets my recommendation this week. While I like the skillset and running ability of the rookie, it is not he who I am a big fan of, but rather whomever is playing the 49ers on that particular week. It also helps that Howard is a talented back who excels in all facets of the run game, as well as on third down and in the red zone. These are the type of running backs who can take advantage of all the 49ers run defense has to offer, which in many cases is a 100+ yard game and at least one touchdown. Jeremy Langford’s injury early in the year paved the way for Howard to take over lead back duties, and he has not looked back since. In Howard’s first two games as a starter, he ripped off back to back 100 yard games (111 yards and 118 yards), while catching a combined seven passes for 46 yards and a touchdown. He was nicked up a bit in week’s six and seven, but once again responded very well by rushing for 153 yards and 100 yards in week’s eight and ten. In the seven games as a starter where he’s seen a full complement of carries, Howard has averaged 123 yards from scrimmage and caught at least four passes in six of those games, while totaling three touchdowns. The Bears seem content to roll with him as their running back of the future, and this week could be another in a long line of big games for the rookie. The Bears play host to the visiting 49ers in the best matchup that Howard will see all season. The 49ers rank dead last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed at 171.8 yards per game, and as I’ve pointed out in previous columns, they are not just bad, they are historically bad. The only thing that saved them from Jay Ajayi’s wrath last week was the fact that the Dolphins were missing three offensive lineman on a line that was not very good to begin with. This week, the 49ers will not be so lucky.  The Bears vs 49ers game has a projected game total of 43.5 points, with both the Bears and the 49ers having implied team totals of 43.5 points. Howard will undoubtedly see a full complement of carries this week, especially if Matt Barkley starts again for the Bears. Although Barkley threw 50+ times last week, it was due to the Bears having to play catch up. I fully expect them to pound the rock with Howard early and often, and a 20+ carry game should be all he needs to put up 140+ total yards, with five receptions and a touchdown. That would put him in the 25-30 point range, and make Howard one of the best GPP plays at running back this week. I will have 25-30% exposure, and I would suggest you do the same.  

Wide Receiver

Tyreke Hill ($4,600)

Chiefs @ Falcons

Projected Team Total:  22.5 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  14.7 points (3.5x salary multiple)                    

With the world watching last Sunday night, Tyreke Hill showed why the Kansas City Chiefs took a shot on him in the 2016 NFL Draft. Hill was labeled as a big risk, and even a bigger PR headache due to a domestic violence charge that followed him after college. The only reason I mention it is because it played a big part in why he slipped all the way to the Chiefs in the later rounds, as anyone who has seen him play this year can see he is chock full of talent. Hill responded with his best game as a pro on Sunday night in a bitter divisional rivalry against the Denver Broncos. Hill scored on a kickoff return, a reception and a rush, and was the reason why the Chiefs were in a position to win the game in overtime. Since Jeremy Maclin’s injury, Hill has stepped up and filled the gap voided by the talented wide out. The Chiefs offense is as conservative as it gets in the NFL, and the years of depending on Jamaal Charles speed to move the ball for them are over. Hill’s emergence as happened at the perfect time for Kansas City, as they are in the midst of a playoff run and will have serious problems trying to match touchdowns with AFC teams like the Raiders, Steelers and Patriots. Over his last five games, Hill has caught 31 passes for 303 yards and four touchdowns. With the exception of Travis Kelce, Hill has become Alex Smith’s favorite target. Smith’s biggest issue is his inability to throw the ball down the field, which severely hampers the Chiefs chances of creating big plays. Hill though, is capable of creating those big plays after the catch using his elite speed and athleticism. He has become as big a part of the Chiefs offense as Kelce, Spencer Ware or Jeremy Maclin. This week the Chiefs travel to Atlanta to take on a Falcons secondary that is ranked dead last in the NFL in passing yards allowed (282.2). The game projects to be a shootout, and Hill should have plenty of chances to turn in a big performance. His salary continues to be soft at $4,700, making him one of the better value plays on the board this weekend.

Taylor Gabriel ($4,000)

Chiefs @ Falcons

Projected Team Total:  26.5 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  10.3 points (3.3x salary multiple)                    

Much like Tyreke Hill, Taylor Gabriel is blazing his path to stardom using his speed and “twitchiness” to make an impact as a receiver for the Falcons. After failing to make the Browns permanent roster, Gabriel was offered a spot on the Falcons by his former offensive coordinator with the Browns, Kyle Shanahan. On a quick side note, who is running the Browns organization? One look at Shanahan and Gabriel’s success with the Falcons, and you would have to be blind not to recognize their talent. Especially when your team is as talentless at the skill positions as the Browns are. Moving on, Gabriel has found a home in Atlanta, and he fits in perfectly with the rest of the wide receivers by providing the Falcons with a true home run hitter that doesn’t need a high volume of targets in order to make an impact. He has the speed to take the top off the defense, which in turn will help to relieve the pressure on Julio Jones. Gabriel is averaging 18 yards per catch on 21 receptions with five touchdowns. What has impressed me the most is that he has those 21 receptions on only 28 targets, so not only he is breaking big plays, but he is taking advantage and making the most of every opportunity. The Falcons vs Chiefs matchup has a game total of 49 points and the Falcons have an implied team total of 26.5 points. The Chiefs biggest strength is their defense, which will undoubtedly be focused on stopping Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman. Gabriel has earned the trust of Ryan, and each week it seems like he is seeing more and more chances. Over his last four games, Gabriel is averaging 18 DrafKings points per game after averaging only 3.7 points in his first five games. At $4,000, Gabriel has a soft salary that makes it very easy to play him in GPP’s. If you are stacking your team and spending up at running back, Gabriel is a great option that gives you a high ceiling while providing salary relief and a relatively stable floor.

Tight End

Martellus Bennett ($4,800)

Rams @ Patriots

Projected Team Total:  28.5 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  10.7 points (2.2x salary multiple)

My previous recommendation of Bennett proved to be off the mark, as Rob Gronkowski was activated at the last minute and started last week’s game against the Jets. This proved to be a very costly mistake for the Patriots, as Gronkowski was hurt during the game and reinjured his back. The injury turned out to be a herniated disk and Gronkowski will undergo surgery this weekend. That leaves Bennett as the undisputed #1 tight end on the Patriots, and with that designation comes the understanding that he will be a big part of the New England offense. The Patriots have some young talent at the wide receiver position, to go along with Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola. That trio of receivers, along with Malcolm Mitchell are solid receivers who are put in the best position to succeed by Tom Brady, but there isn’t a mismatch among those receivers. If they were playing for other teams, many of them would struggle to make a final roster (several of them have gotten cut). That brings us to Bennett, who despite his travels around the league, is a mismatch at the tight end position. He has the speed and athleticism to beat linebackers down the field, and he has the size to be a difference maker in the red zone. Bennett already has three 100+ yard games this season, and now he gets the benefit of being used as a receiving option, as opposed to being relegated to blocking duties while Gronkowski was healthy. Bennett and the Patriots host a Rams team that has been generous to opposing tight ends this season. Last week, the Rams allowed the Saints duo of Josh Hill and Coby Fleener to combine for 10 receptions and 133 receiving yards. In week 9, Greg Olsen caught five passes for 52 yards and a touchdown, and Charles Clay caught five passes for 73 yards in week five. Cameron Brate beat up on the Rams in three, catching five passes for 46 yards and two touchdowns. With the exception of Olsen, Bennett is the most talented of that bunch, and like Fleener and Hill, he has an elite quarterback who knows how to make defenses pay and exploit mismatches. Bennett has a top five ceiling amongst tight ends, and now with an increase in target volume, he should have the floor to match it. This makes him one of the best GPP options at tight end, and alongside Travis Kelce, the most valuable PP$ options at the position. 


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