Bink Inc. Week 12

Breaking down the DraftKings player pool

Here at Bink Inc, my aim is to break down the DraftKings player pool and give you the skinny on the various GPP options at your disposal.  I will be going through all positions and all pricing tiers, as well as dropping GPP lineup construction knowledge. Due to DraftKings new regulations regarding selling lineups, we can’t actually give you pre-built lineups.  With that said, each week the Bink Inc. article will provide you with all of the information you need, so that you can craft lineups from our suggestions. In many ways this is better for our readers, as you will become familiar with the different strategies for GPP lineup construction and be able to identify how value shifts from position to position depending on the pricing each week.   

Quarterbacks:

Russell Wilson ($6,700)

Seahawks @ Bucs

Projected Team Total:  25.5 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  22.1 points (3.3x salary multiple)

The first half of the season was not kind to Russell Wilson. After breaking out halfway through the 2015 season, it looked as though Wilson was poised to be among the top fantasy quarterbacks for a long time to come. An early injury slowed him down, literally, taking his mobility away and forcing him into a conservative approach that did not play well with fantasy owners. To his credit, Wilson has shaken off the injury and put together a three game stretch that has reminded fantasy owners not to overlook him moving forward. In wins over the Bills, Patriots and the Eagles, Wilson averaged 300 yards passing, with seven total touchdowns (six passing, one rushing). Over that period, he has averaged 26 DraftKings points per game, and he has done that with an average salary of roughly $6,200, which slightly over a 4x return. Wilson’s great play can be directly attributed to his ability to move around and manipulate the pocket, which has given him more time to look down the field. In his first seven games, Wilson averaged 11.7 yards per completion. Over his last three games, he has averaged 14.3 yards per completion. This week Wilson and the Seahawks travel to Tampa Bay to take on a Bucs team that has had a lot of problems containing opposing quarterbacks. Tampa Bay ranks 25th in the NFL in passing defense, allowing 267 yards per game. They have let up monster games to Matt Ryan (334/2 and 344/4), Carson Palmer (304/3) and they were the victim of the biggest game by any quarterback this season, Derek Carr’s 513 yard, four touchdown performance in week 8. The Seahawks vs Bucs matchup has a projected total score of 45 points, and the Seahawks have an implied team total of 25.5 points, the second highest of any road team this week. The matchup is perfect timing for Wilson, who should be able to put up a very strong performance against a weak Tampa Bay secondary. His salary is soft at $6,700, and although his established ceiling is only 29.5 points this year, Wilson has proven that he has the upside to cross the 35 point threshold, and thus, is deserving of significant exposure this week in your GPP lineups.

 

Eli Manning ($6,500)

Giants @ Browns

Projected Team Total:  26.5 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  19.4 points (3x salary multiple)

With a new coaching staff and additions to both the offense and the defense, growing pains were to be expected for the Giants this season. The additions to the offense (Sterling Shepard) and a healthy Victor Cruz were supposed to ease the burden on Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr Jr., and despite the Giants being a good spot record wise, the offense has not performed anywhere close to its full potential. Manning has not been efficient, but even more troubling is the fact that he is not pushing the ball down the field with as much consistency as he had in years past. This has led to a rather mediocre fantasy season thus fur, with some very good games and very bad games mixed in. He’s crossed 300 yards passing only three times on the season, but on the plus side, he’s thrown for three or more touchdowns four times on the season. The offense is starting to hit its stride, with Manning throwing for 9 touchdowns in his last three games, including games of three and four touchdown passes. This week the Giants face off against arguably the worst team in the NFL, the Cleveland Browns. The Browns rank 22nd in passing defense, allowing 265.5 yards per game, while ranking 31st in rush defense (143.9 yards per game) and overall defense (409.5 yards per game). Cleveland has been very generous to opposing quarterbacks this year, allowing 24.7 fantasy points per game, including six games of 25 or more points. This matchup comes at a great time for the Giants, as the Redskins play Dallas this week, allowing them to gain ground on either the division leader or their competition for the wild card spot. Manning has a high ceiling, but in order for him to reach his upside, he needs Odell Beckham Jr Jr. to have a big game and get behind the Cleveland secondary. This shouldn’t be a problem, as the Browns have allowed five different 100 yard receivers on the season, and 14 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. The Giants vs Cleveland matchup has a projected game total of 44 points, and the Giants have an implied team total of 25.5 points, tied with Seattle for the second highest of any road team on the week. Manning’s ownership percentage has remained low for much of the season, and even in a great matchup, it is very unlikely to go any higher than 10%. He is a great GPP option this week, especially when stacked with Odell Beckham Jr Jr.

 

Carson Palmer ($5,300)

Cardinals @ Falcons

Projected Team Total:  22.75 points

Footballguys IVC Projection: 18.4 points (3.5x salary multiple)

By all account, the season has been a disaster for a 4-5-1 Cardinals team that had Super Bowl aspirations, with more than enough talent to make that run. After his playoff meltdown last season, Carson Palmer has just not looked right. Much of it has been masked by David Johnson’s incredible talent, which has been the singular reason why the Cardinals have been able to move the ball. Palmer’s stats don’t look terrible, as he’s averaging 293.6 passing yards per game. His 13:10 touchdown to interception ratio is terrible though, and is inexcusable with the talent surrounding him on offense. For most of his career, Palmer was asked to generate yards by using his arm to take deep shots down the field. Even his first few seasons in Arizona were similar, but it is clear that his arm strength and accuracy have both dipped due to injuries that have piled up over his career. The Cardinals have a very talented group of wide receivers who operate in all areas of the passing game, and it is time that he start trusting them to make plays after the catch. Palmer was on a bit of a hot-streak heading into his game last week against Minnesota, throwing for 300+ yards in three straight games. He had his worst game of the year against the Vikings though, throwing for 198 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions, including an interception in the red zone that was returned for a touchdown by Xavier Rhodes. Palmer’s touchdown upside has taken a hit with David Johnson’s efficiency in the red zone, but there is reason to like him this week against a weak Atlanta secondary. The Falcons have the worst passing defense in the NFL, allowing 283 yards per game. They have allowed four 30+ fantasy point games and five games of three or more touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. The Falcons vs Cardinals matchup has highest game total of the weekend slate at 50.5 points and the Cardinals have an implied team total of 22.75 points. The combination of Palmer’s matchup, soft salary ($5,300) and yardage upside make him an intriguing GPP option this week. He comes with some risks, but at the same time he also has a high ceiling in a game that will very likely be a shootout.

 

Running Backs:

Spencer Ware ($6,100)

Chiefs @ Broncos

Projected Team Total:  18.25 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  16.7 points (2.7 salary multiple)

Spencer Ware has had an impressive season to date, filling in for the injured Jamaal Charles as the Chiefs bell-cow back while still learning the nuances of the running back position. Considering his relative inexperience, Ware has done very well in his expanded role, earning the trust of Andy Reid and Alex Smith along the way. The Chiefs offense is likely the most conservative (or boring depending on how you look at it) of any team in the NFL. Due to Alex Smith’s deficiencies as a downfield passer, the offense is based around West Coast concepts that take advantage of high percentage routes in the short and intermediate passing game. The strategy has worked well for the Chiefs in recent years because they could rely on Jamaal Charles to break big plays and move the ball when the passing game could not. While Charles is a rare talent, Ware has not let the Chiefs down in that department. He’s gained 20+ yards on seven of his 22 receptions, and has three more 20+ yard gains on the ground. His last two games have been rough though, as Ware failed to break at least a 25+ yard play for only the second and third time on the season. This week Ware should fare much better against an aggressive Broncos defense that has been spectacular against the pass, but not close to as good against opposing running backs. On the year, the Broncos rank 29th in rushing, allowing 123.7 yards per game to opposing running backs. Denver allowed 94 yards to Melvin Gordon III in week 6, 124 yards to Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue in week 7, 111 yards to Gordon again in week 8 and 211 yards and three touchdowns to Latavius Murray, Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington in week 9. The Chiefs vs Broncos matchup has a projected game total of 39.5 points, the lowest of any game on the main slate. The Chiefs have an implied team total of 18.25 points, tied for the lowest of any team on the week. Despite his red zone upside being capped by a low game total, Ware will still be very busy and if the Chiefs want to win their division, they need to beat the Broncos on Sunday. All signs point to Ware seeing a big workload, and with a relatively soft salary ($6,100), his combined yardage total and receptions should allow him to hit minimum GPP value with the chance to exceed 3x-4x by way of a touchdown.

 

 

Jeremy Hill ($3,900)

Bengals @ Ravens

Projected Team Total:  18.25 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  12.5 points (3.2x salary multiple)

If you were to just look at stats, Jeremy Hill is not necessarily a guy you would look to this week for production in your GPP lineups. He faces off against a tough Baltimore run defense that is ranked 1st in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (76 yards per game), and the Bengals are tied for the lowest implied team total of the week (coincidentally, with Kansas City as I mentioned above) at 18.25 points. Add in the fact that the Bengals are missing the centerpiece to their offense in AJ Green, and there is not much that would point to Hill having a game that would generate enough points to be a force in GPP’s. That is also one of the biggest reasons why I am recommending him this week. The chalk has been very successful this season, and a big part of that chalk has been the top tier of running backs. With Leveon Bell and Ezekiel Elliot playing on Thanksgiving, there leaves a large void in ownership at the running back position. David Johnson, DeMarco Murray and Melvin Gordon III will see their already high ownership rise, and with that rise, the rest of the running back pool will see a decrease across the board. This is a unique week in that there will be more running backs in play than any previous week of the year, so finding a low priced, low owned running back who can hit GPP value will give you a big boost in your lineups. Not only is AJ Green out with an injury, but Hill’s fellow backfield mate, Giovanni Bernard was just placed on Injury Reserve and will miss the rest of the season. This ensures a big role for Hill, who will not only see more carries, but also an uptick in targets in the passing game. If he can generate 5-7 points in the passing game, the chances of him exceeding GPP value at $3,900 is very high. The Bengals vs Ravens matchup has a projected game total of 40.5 points, the second lowest of any game on the weekend slate. Hill’s yardage totals have been inconsistent, but he has scored touchdowns in five of his 10 games, and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry on the season. He has an established ceiling of 30.2 points that occurred in week seven against the Browns. The Ravens have the best run defense in the NFL, but Hill has a unique opportunity to be the focal point of the Bengals offense in what should be a very tight and hard fought game. Talent + Opportunity = Production in the fantasy world, and Hill now has all of those bases covered. Hill comes with some risk, but in GPP’s, I am more than willing to take on that risk when the reward is so high. His soft salary and opportunity are too much for me to pass up, even in a tough matchup.

 

Rashad Jennings ($5,600)

Giants @ Browns

Projected Team Total:  25.5 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  17.4 points (3.1x salary multiple)

From one extreme to the next, Jennings has one of the better matchups of any running back this week. He has not had an efficient season to date, but Jennings has shown flashes of coming on over the last several weeks. When Shane Vereen was lost for the season, Jennings was thought to be the main beneficiary due to him picking up more snaps on third downs. That wasn’t necessarily the case though, as rookie Paul Perkins began seeing more snaps, and produced very well while on the field. With the Giants in a desperate race with the Cowboys and Redskins to make the playoffs, the coaching staff began leaning on Jennings more in weeks 10 and 11, and the results were very good. Jennings gained 87 yards on 15 carries, while also catching three passes for 22 yards in week 10. In week 11 he was even better, gaining 85 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries, while catching five passes for 44 yards. The 23.9 DraftKings points was a season high for Jennings, and now he gets the best matchup of the season against a struggling Browns defensive front. The Browns are ranked 31st in the league run defense, allowing 143.9 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. They’ve also 13 rushing touchdowns in 11 games. The Browns have allowed 20+ points to the opposing #1 running back in three of their last four weeks. The Giants vs Browns matchup has a projected total of 44 points, and the Giants have an implied team total of 25.5 points, the second highest team total of any road team this week. With the Giants desperately needing to keep pace in their division, they will be in scoring mode for the entire game, which gives Jennings a rather high ceiling. He has a great matchup, is playing very well as of late and should have more than his fair share of red zone opportunities. His price is a little high given his production this year, but it is not overwhelmingly so, and is still low enough where he can exceed GPP value.

 

 

Wide Receiver

 

Jordan Matthews ($5,000)

Packers @ Eagles

Projected Team Total:  25.75 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  17.7 points (3.5x salary multiple)                    

Jordan Matthews has a solid follow up season to his breakout in 2015, and despite playing with a rookie quarterback, he has put up respectable fantasy numbers. Matthews has caught at least five passes in six of his 10 games, has scored double digit DraftKings points in eight of his ten games, and has an established ceiling of 27.4 points in week one against the Browns. It was the only time in which Matthews has exceed 100 yards (114 yards) and it was only of only three games where he has scored a touchdown. The main reason behind that is because Matthews has been targeted often in the short passing game, which is evident with his 12.1 average yards per catch. When you combine that with the fact that Matthews is averaging 8.6 targets per game, he should have a higher reception count. He’s only caught 53 of 86 targets though (61%), and that is where you can point to having a rookie quarterback that has not had time to develop the type of rapport that #1 receivers and their quarterbacks enjoy. With that said, Matthews is an attractive GPP dart this week. He has an excellent matchup against a Green Bay secondary that has been getting torched for much of the season, and his price is especially soft at $5,000 given his target volume. The Packers are ranked 23rd in passing defense, allowing 265.6 passing yards per game. They have been especially bad against opposing wide receivers the last two weeks, allowing six different wide receivers to score touchdowns over that span. The Green Bay vs Philadelphia matchup has a projected game total of 47.5 points, and the Eagles have an implied team total of 47.5 points. This game should continue the shootout trend of recent Packers games, and with Darren Sproles and Ryan Matthews both not practicing this week, Matthews should be even more involved than usual. His price is soft, and the matchup is great…he is deserving of significant exposure this week.

 

Tyler Boyd ($4,000)

Bengals @ Ravens

Projected Team Total:  18.25 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  13.3 points (3.3x salary multiple)                    

After winning the starting spot aside AJ Green in the preseason, Boyd was a favorite pick to breakout in his rookie year given the lack of options in the Bengals passing game. Boyd started out the season well, catching eight passes for 102 yards in his first two games, but after that he fell off and was replaced in the starting lineup by Brandon LaFell. When AJ Green was injured during last week’s game, Boyd stepped into the lineup again and performed very well over the last three quarters. He finished the game with six receptions for 54 yards and a touchdown, with his highest point total of the year (17.4 DraftKings points). As previously mentioned, both Green and Giovanni Bernard are out of the lineup, which leaves a huge void in the Bengals passing game. Tyler Eifert is now healthy and will pick up a big chunk of the targets, but Boyd is the wide receiver most likely to benefit from Green and Bernard’s absence. The Bengals travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens in a very important divisional game this week. The Ravens have the league’s #1 rushing defense, and their pass defense is highly rated as well, allowing 219.1 passing yards per game, ranking 7th in the NFL. The high ranking is not indicative of their ability to slow down opposing wide receivers though, especially in the red zone. Corey Coleman (5/104/2), Allen Robinson (5/57/2), Michael Crabtree (7/88/3), Odell Beckham Jr Jr. (8/222/2) and Dez Bryant (6/80/2) all had monster games against the Ravens in which they scored at least two touchdowns. The Bengals vs Ravens matchup has the second lowest projection of the week at 40.5 points, and the Bengals are tied for the lowest implied team total of the week at 18.25 points. Boyd has a fantastic opportunity and he comes at a bargain at $4,000. There is risk associated with rostering him this week, but the risk/reward proposition makes up for it. If you choose to roster two high priced running backs this week, Boyd should definitely be on your radar for GPP’s.

 

Tight End

 

Martellus Bennett ($4,500)

Patriots @ Jets

Projected Team Total:  26.5 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  12.7 points (2.8x salary multiple)

With Rob Gronkowski not expected to play on Sunday, Bennett becomes my favorite play of the week at the tight end position. His ownership will most likely skyrocket, but considering how volatile tight end has been this year, if you are given value at the position with high upside, you have to take the opportunity. That is exactly what Bennett provides, as he proven to have unique upside for his position. He has three 100+ yard games on the season, and a three touchdown effort that established his ceiling at 30.7 points in week five against the Browns. Bennett is dealing with an ankle injury and is questionable to play on Sunday, but it is rather unlikely that he will sit out a divisional game against the Patriots rival.  The Jets have been generous to opposing tight ends this year, allowing six receptions for 89 yards and a touchdown to Travis Kelce in week three, six receptions for 113 yards to Jimmy Graham in week four, six receptions for 43 yards and a touchdown to Jesse James in week five, and three receptions for 42 yards and a touchdown to Dominique Jones in week nine. The Patriots vs Jets matchup has a projected game total of 46 points, and the Patriots have an implied team total of 26.5 points, the highest of any road team on the weekend slate. Assuming Bennett is healthy, he has a fantastic opportunity to exceed GPP value, and he comes at a very soft salary ($4,500) given his upside. Check the injury report on Saturday and Sunday for the latest news regarding his injury, but at this point it looks like he will play and is deserving of high exposure. 


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