Bink Inc. Week 11

Breaking down the DraftKings player pool

Here at Bink Inc, my aim is to break down the DraftKings player pool and give you the skinny on the various GPP options at your disposal.  I will be going through all positions and all pricing tiers, as well as dropping GPP lineup construction knowledge. Due to DraftKings new regulations regarding selling lineups, we can’t actually give you pre-built lineups.  With that said, each week the Bink Inc. article will provide you with all of the information you need, so that you can craft lineups from our suggestions. In many ways this is better for our readers, as you will become familiar with the different strategies for GPP lineup construction and be able to identify how value shifts from position to position depending on the pricing each week.

Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins ($5,800)

Packers @ Redskins

Projected Team Total:  26.25 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  20.7points (3.6x salary multiple)

As a baseline projection, we have Kirk Cousins leading the way in terms of projected salary multiple returned, with a 3.6x multiple and 20.7 raw DraftKings points. Cousins has been very consistent this season from a fantasy perspective, throwing or at least 260 yards in every game but one, while scoring at least 18 DraftKings points in eight of his ten games. He showed up well against a tough Minnesota defense last week, throwing for 262 yards and two touchdowns, and more importantly, leading the Redskins to a win. In their last seven games, Cousins has led Washington to a 5-1-1 record, starving off much of the speculation that the Washington brass would not give him a new contract at the end of the season. This week the Redskins face off against a struggling Green Bay Packers team that is coming off a brutal loss to the Tennessee Titans, where Marcus Mariota shredded the Packers secondary to the tune of 295 yards passing and four touchdowns. It marked the fourth time this season the Packers have allowed an opposing quarterback to throw for three or more touchdowns, and the sixth time an opposing quarterback has thrown for 280+ passing yards.  The Redskins vs Packers matchup has the fourth highest game total of the week at 49.5 points, and the Redskins have the sixth highest implied team total of the week at 26.25 points. At $5,800, Cousins has a fantastic opportunity to hit full GPP value at home against the Packers. He is offering salary relief, as well as the upside you need to have to win GPP’s, making him one of the best tournament plays at quarterback this weekend.

Aaron Rodgers ($7,600)

Packers @ Redskins

Projected Team Total:  23.25 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  23.2 points (3.05x salary multiple)

Lost in the shuffle of the Packers slide, is the fact that Aaron Rodgers has quietly done his best to avoid the current situation that Green Bay finds themselves in. Over the last four weeks—a stretch in which the Packers are 1-4—Rodgers has averaged 310 yards passing, three passing touchdowns and over 30 DraftKings points per game. While he does not represent the same type of value that Cousins does, he offers an elite ceiling that few quarterbacks can match. The Redskins secondary has improved as the season has progressed, which makes considering there were sure to be some growing pains associated with Josh Norman’s signing. With that said, they have been prone to letting up big games when facing top tier competition, evidenced by Ben Roethlisberger’s game against them in week 2 (300/3) and Eli Manning’s performance in week 5 (350/1). Over the last three weeks the Redskins are averaging 285.6 passing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks, with four passing touchdowns allowed during that span. They have been stingy in the red zone, but considering the lack of a Packers run game, Rodgers should get a bump in value knowing they will be passing a large percentage of time in the red zone. The Packers have an implied team total of 23.25, which is fifth highest of any road team this week. Rodgers doesn’t have the best matchup of the week, but he is playing at such a high level, and the Green Bay defense is allowing so many points, that he will be in passing mode for much of, if not all of this game. This is a situation where you want to pay up and have some exposure to Rodgers, as his cumulative totals are just too good to ignore, and this game has the high likelihood of reaching shootout status.

Marcus Mariota ($6,700)

Titans @ Colts

Projected Team Total:  24.75 points

Footballguys IVC Projection: 20.9 points (3.1x salary multiple)

Marcus Mariota is arguably playing as well as any quarterback in the league, while leading the Titans to a 5-5 record, including a 4-2 record over the last six weeks. During that time, Mariota has thrown for at least two passing touchdowns in every game, while averaging 259.5 passing. In four of those games, Mariota has thrown for three or more touchdowns, which is remarkable considering the talent that he has at the skill positions. He is taking advantage of Demarco Murray’s success by beating opposing secondary’s when they stack the box, something he did to perfection last week against the Packers. In last week’s game, Mariota completed 73.1% of his passes, for 295 yards and four touchdowns, while averaging 15.5 yards per completion. As good as Aaron Rodgers was, Mariota completely demoralized the Packers defense by jumping out to an early lead and then matching every Rodgers touchdown with one of his own. This week Mariota leads the Titans on the road against a Colts defense that is ranked 25th in passing defense, allowing 288 passing yards per game.  The Colts have also allowed 17 passing touchdowns, including two or more passing touchdowns allowed in seven of their nine games. The Titans vs Colts matchup has the highest game total of the week at 52.5 points, and the Titans have the third highest implied total of all road teams at 24.75 points. Considering Mariota’s current form, and the fact that the Colts have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in six of their last seven games, he makes for a great GPP option that should have no problem hitting minimum tournament value. On top of that, Mariota has also eclipsed 30+ DraftKings points twice this season, giving you the ceiling that you need to justify having significant exposure. In a game that projects to be a shootout, Mariota could very well lead quarterbacks in both raw points, and in overall PP$ value this week.

Running Backs

LeGarrette Blount ($6,400)

Patriots @ 49ers

Projected Team Total:  32 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  18.3 points (2.8 salary multiple)

LeGarrette Blount has played a big part in the Patriots 7-2 record, despite the fact that they were missing Tom Brady for their first four games. Blount is averaging 17.4 DraftKings points per game, but he has been lost in the shuffle this season with the top tier of running backs proving to be the most valuable fantasy players of any position group. He has scored at least one touchdown in nine of his 10 games this year and has 12 rushing touchdowns on the season, which leads all other running backs by at least three touchdowns (David Johnson, Melvin Gordon III and Ezekiel Elliot all have nine). His touchdown consistency has kept his value in tact from week to week, despite the fact that he is very much at the mercy of the Patriots play calling. He hasn’t helped his cause by averaging only 3.7 yards per carry, but part of that is to be expected when you are averaging 20+ rushes per game. This week Blount gets a dream matchup against a 49ers rush defense that has been historically bad, something I covered to great extent in last week’s column. The 49ers somehow managed to keep David Johnson to 55 yards rushing (2.9 yards per carry), although Johnson still managed to score 27.1 DraftKings points on the strength of two touchdowns and some solid production in the passing game. Blount figures to take advantage of a weak 49ers run defense that has gotten destroyed by power running backs this year. Since week 3, San Francisco has let up 13 rushing touchdowns and an average of 124.3 to #1 running backs. The Patriots vs 49ers matchup has a game total of 51 points (3rd highest on the week), while the Patriots have the highest implied team total at 32 points. There is no reason why this game should be close, which should allow Blount to rack up carries in the second half. At $6,400 Blount is a no-brainer play, and despite the fact that he should have significant ownership, he is too good of a value play to pass up and someone I would recommend in the 20-30% exposure range.

C.J. Prosise ($4,200)

Eagles @ Seahawks

Projected Team Total:  24.5 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  14.3 points (3.4x salary multiple)

In his first game as the Seahawks lead back, Prosise rushed 17 times for 66 yards, while catching seven passes for 87 yards on seven targets. Prosise’s ability to generate yards in the passing game played a big part in the Seahawks upset victory over the Patriots on the road, and also went a long way in cementing his role in the Seattle backfield. Thomas Rawls is on track to play this week, but make no mistake about it, the Seahawks will ease him back into action, giving Prosise the inside track on lead back duties for the foreseeable future. This week the Seahawks play host to an Eagles team that has been very good against the run over the course of the current season. Prior to becoming a running back, Prosise was a receiver and that skillset is evident when you watch him play, and something that the Seahawks will look to use to their advantage against a tough Philadelphia defensive front. While the Eagles have only allowed one 100+ yard rusher on the season, they have been much more generous to opposing running backs in the passing game. Theo Riddick had six catches for 33 yards and two touchdowns in a week five meeting against the Eagles, while Matt Asiata (6/25), Ezekiel Elliot (4/52) and the combination of Paul Perkins and Rashad Jennings (6/28) all padded their stats rather nicely against the Eagles. The Seahawks vs Eagles matchup has a game total of 43 points, and the Seahawks have an implied team total of 24.5 points. The Seahawks are favored by 6.5 points, and their defense should put enough pressure on rookie Carson Wentz to keep him off balance for much of the game. This gives Prosise an opportunity to catch 5+ passes, which when combined with his rushing totals, should allow him to hit at least minimum tournament value. At $4,200, his price is soft enough to utilize at either your running back or flex position, while also offering salary relief and allowing you to spend up at other positions.

Theo Riddick ($5,100)

Jaguars @ Lions

Projected Team Total:  26.75 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  14.9 points (2.9x salary multiple)

Riddick is one of the more under-appreciated fantasy assets this season, with part of that having to do with some injuries that have slowed him down and also the top tier of running backs playing so well and garnering so much value. He is averaging 17.4 DraftKings points on the season, a number that is padded by three games of 26+ fantasy points, and four games of 12 points or less. Riddick currently ranks fifth among all running backs in receptions with 35, although he has only played seven games and would be tied with Leveon Bell if his average catches per game was to be extrapolated. The Lions clearly do not feel comfortable giving him extensive work in the running game, despite the fact that he has improved in that department, rushing 36 times for 175 yards over his last three games (4.86 yards per carry). This week the Lions face off against a Jaguars run defense that is ranked 29th in the NFL, allowing 124 rushing yards per game with seven rushing touchdowns. The Jaguars have been generous to opposing running backs in the passing game in terms of receptions, as Justin Forsett (6/12), Frank Gore (5/27), Josh Ferguson (7/33), Derek Henry (4/37) and Charcandrick West (3/35) all found some room to operate catching the ball out of the back field. The Lions vs Jaguars matchup has the fifth highest game total of the week at 47.5 points, and the Lions have an implied team total of 26.75 points. While Riddick has struggled with consistency this year, he has proven to have solid upside, especially given his soft pricing. His ownership percentage has remained low all year, and with all of the top running backs in play, as well as guys like Blount and Prosise providing solid value, his ownership should remain low this week in a game where the Lions will look to him early and often.

Wide Receiver

Odell Beckham Jr Jr. ($8,500)

Bears @ Giants

Projected Team Total:  23.25 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  19.8 points (2.3x salary multiple)

Beckham Jr. started the year off very slow, especially given his past accomplishments, but as the season gets into full swing and the playoffs looming closer, the Giants have once again started to rely on Beckham Jr. He broke out in a big way against the Ravens in week 6 (8/222/2), and then backed that up with a solid performance in week 9 (4/46/2), and another big game in a week 10 win over the Bengals (10/97/1). His season totals do not project anywhere close to what he did in his first two seasons (54/773/6), but part of that was to be expected with a new coaching staff, as well as the Giants adding Sterling Shepard in the draft and a healthy Victor Cruz playing alongside Beckham Jr. for the first time in their careers. This week the Giants host a Chicago Bears secondary that ranks 12th in the NFL with 242.2 passing yards allowed per game. That is only part of the story though, as the Bears have been torched by speedy receivers all season. Will Fuller V caught five passes for 107 yards and a touchdown in week 1, TY Hilton caught 10 passes for 171 yards and a touchdown in week 5, Davante Adams caught 13 passes for 132 yards and two touchdowns, Randall Cobb caught 11 passes for 95 yards and a touchdown and Stefon Diggs caught eight passes for 76 yards and a touchdown against the Bears. While all of those receivers are gifted, none of them matchup to Beckham Jr. in terms of overall ability or athleticism. The Giants vs Bears matchup has a game total of 43.5 points, and the Giants have an implied team total of 25.25 points. Beckham Jr. has the second highest salary among wide receivers this week ($8,500), but there is certainly reason to spend up and roster him this week. He is just starting to his stride, and the Giants look to be committed to giving him the type of volume that he needs to convert receptions down the field. When he is given that type of volume, the results have been huge, and he still has the highest ceiling of any wide receiver, with the exception of maybe Antonio Brown or Julio Jones. He makes for an excellent GPP play that should have conservative ownership (less than 15%).

Cameron Meredith ($4,100)

Bears @ Giants

Projected Team Total:  18.25 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  13.3 points (3.24x salary multiple)

After breaking out with a monster game in week six, (11 receptions for 113 yards on 15 targets), Meredith had faded in weeks seven and eight due to Ashlon Jeffrey’s return from injury. He made his presence felt in week 10 though, catching a Hail Mary touchdown on the final play of the first half, which was his only catch on two targets for the game. The catch could not have come at a better time for Meredith though, as Jay Cutler may have gained some confidence in the youngster, just as Jeffrey was lost for the next four games after failing a drug test for performance enhancers. Meredith, a former quarterback, has gotten better every time he’s stepped on the field and he has the look of a fluid athlete who can really do damage after the catch. Now that Jeffrey is out for the next four games, Meredith will inherit a #1 role that sees a massive volume of targets from Jay Cutler. His week six performance was a sign of things to come, as this week he faces off against a 22nd ranked Giants defense that has gotten beaten up by wide receiver this year. Randal Cobb (9/108/1), Tavon Austin (10/57/1), AJ Green (7/68/1), Jamison Crowder (4/78/1), Davante Adams (5/85/1) and DeSean Jackson (5/96/1) all saw a heavy volume of targets against the Giants, and all responded with touchdowns. The Giants vs Bears matchup has a game total of 43.5 points and the Bears have an implied team total of 18.25 points. Vegas is projecting the Giants to win this game, and if past games are any prediction of future performance, the Bears should find themselves trailing in this game from the start. That should only help Meredith’s outlook this week, and considering he has a very soft salary of $4,100, he should have problem hitting minimum tournament value, with plenty of room to blow through that number.

Tight End

Jack Doyle ($3,300)

Titans @ Colts

Projected Team Total:  27.75 points

Footballguys IVC Projection:  8.6 points (2.6x salary multiple)

Doyle has had a very successful season considering he came from out of no-where and took over the main role of receiver amongst the Colts tight ends. Dwayne Allen was seen as the natural successor to a departed Colby Fleener, but it has been Doyle who has become the passing option, while Allen has been relegated to blocking duty, something he happens to excel at. Doyle saw his biggest games come while Allen and Donte Moncrief were on the sidelines with injuries, but even after they have recovered, he has continued to be a big part of the passing game. This past week Doyle caught five of nine targets for 61 yards, and now has converted 80% of his targets on the season (36 catches on 45 targets). This week he gets a Titans defense that has had big problems stopping the tight end position, especially in the red zone, allowing touchdowns to opposing tight ends in three of their last four games. Doyle had his best game of the season the last time these two teams played each other, catching nine passes for 78 yards and a touchdown. The Colts vs Titans matchup has the highest game total of the week at 52.5 points, and the Colts have an implied team total of 27.75 points (2nd highest on the week). The game projects to be a shootout, which means the Colts should see plenty of opportunities in the red zone, an area where Doyle has found success this season. He makes for an excellent GPP play, and has the baseline projection to reach minimum tournament value, with the ceiling to blow through that number. His ownership should remain very low against the Titans, despite the great matchup and the previous success. 


More articles from BJ VanderWoude

See all

More articles on: Daily FF

See all

More articles on: DraftKings

See all