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You guys have a ton of articles.
This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week.
If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.
1. The Oakland Stroke: Alex Smith
This tune is about the coolest thing associated with Alex Smith in a long time. The question is whether he'll earn it this week. The Footballguys DFS Crew ranks Smith the No.2 FanDuel play in its weekly consensus rankings. The criteria are "based on what our DEFS staff believe are the best players at each position with respect to total points they will receiver compared to the dollars that they cost."
On the lower end of the salary scale, Alex Smith looks like a perfect cash game play at just $6800 against the Raiders who have the worst pass defense in the league, allowing over 330 yards and 2 passing TDs per game. Smith is coming off a bye week and need to keep pace with the Raiders and the Broncos. Smith is primed to take full advantage of the Raiders and should be able exceed cash and even GPP value.
Maurile Tremblay has Smith as his No.5 QB for Week 6 in his Weekly Cheatsheet, Ari Ingel labels him a "great streaming option" in The Docket, and Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant tab the Chiefs' passing matchup at the Raiders as a great matchup:
The Raiders gave up 21/30 for 351 net yards passing, four TDs and two interceptions, with two sacks generated for -8 yards against Phillip Rivers and company last weekend - to date, they are ranked 32nd in the NFL averaging 330.6 net passing yards allowed per game, with 12 passing scores given away vs. five interceptions and seven sacks to their credit. From Week Three to Week Five of the 2016 season (over the last three weeks), Oakland has averaged 22.6 fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks (ninth in the NFL); and 21.8 fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers (15th-least); with 10.5 fantasy points given up per game to tight ends (sixth-most).
This is a great matchup for Smith and company.
Weather: The Black Hole expects a temperature of 66 F at game time, with partly-cloudy skies and winds around 13 MPH. It may be a bit blustery by the Bay, but otherwise weather shouldn't play a huge role in this game.
One guy who isn't groovin' with the Oakland Stroke is David Dodds, who has Smith as his 13th option this weekend. One of Dodds' relied-upon tools for his projections is his Game Predictor:
The Game Predictor is our primary tool to establish how each team will attempt to play their game (rush/pass) that week. It factors in opponent, YTD data, recent games played, critical injury information, home/away situations and more. I believe it to be one of the best simulation tools available on the internet and has been refined since it's birth on the mrfootball.com website 16 years ago.
Dodds' Game Predictor has the Kansas City-Oakland game going down as so:
| Teams | Pass Comp | Pass Att | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Pass Int | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TDs | Score |
|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 24 | 36 | 264 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 25 | 114 | 0.8 | 24.3 |
| at Oakland Raiders | 27 | 37 | 271 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 27 | 118 | 0.8 | 24.8 |
What's notable about this is the success of each team's ground games. Although both teams could be rolling with tandems this weekend, there's success to mine against each rush defense.
Joe and Mark label the Chiefs run defense as a neutral matchup, but I suspect some of this has to do with the rookie tandem of Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington as a less-proven commodity and the possibility that the massively inconsistent Latavius Murray could join the mix this weekend. The Raiders run defense rates as a good matchup and we know that Spencer Ware or Jamaal Charles can get it done if either plays to his ability.
The strength of each team's ground game could make the game plans for each offense far more balanced than some expect—especially for the Chiefs offense.
My Advice: I'm going against the grain with the DFS crowd. While there's a heightened opportunity for Chris Conley, Tyreek Hill, or Jeremy Maclin to earn a long touchdown this weekend because one of them will draw the vulnerable Sean Smith on a vertical route, Alex Smith isn't a bombs-away guy. But I don't want to play too far into his check-down king stereotype. Smith was a more aggressive downfield thrower last year.
If Smith has a big day, I'm betting on the backs and Travis Kelce as the major recipient thanks to the Silver and Black Welcome Mat's hospitality to the passing game in the middle of the field. The receivers are bye-week/flex-play upside swings at greatness and in essence, it's also what Dodds is saying about Smith as a QB play this week.
I agree with him because I've seen the right side of the Raiders line every week and it has not stopped the run. It was almost the sole source of Terrance West's production (as was the left side of the Washington line last week). I expect a big day from the ground game—even if choosing between Charles and Ware is a fantasy nightmare this week—and it means Smith is a good (top 10-15), but not great (top 5) play in my book.
2. Sweet home Chicago: Cameron Meredith
I've been asked about Meredith a lot, but this weekend will be the first time I the Bears' receiver. Matt Harmon studied him last night for this morning's Reception Perception. Roll to the highlights...
In his first glimpse of major playing time and subsequent involvement at the NFL level, Meredith scored just above the NFL average in both success rate vs. man (66.7) and zone (72.7) coverage. That’s an impressive feat and a positive indicator for his future with this team. Now, for my money, he wasn’t doing much in the way of detailed technique or crisp route-running to get open. However, what you did see was the natural leverage his physical gifts afford him and a player who was just executing.
Meredith didn’t look lost. The role of a top target didn’t look too big for him. He’s a smooth mover and someone who was almost always a better athlete than the defensive back covering him. The term “he’s a natural” is probably an overused quip. Yet, in Meredith’s case, it does seem to sum up what he is as a player. Someone who might not be all the way there from a studious perspective, but a receiver who can get the job done because of his natural athleticism and aggression.
On the negative side, his success rate vs. zone coverage was well below the NFL average with a 58.8 percent score. This is where you can hypothesize that he still needs to take a few steps as both a technician and a student of the game. More time and experience when facing NFL defenses will help Meredith get the reps he needs to identify patterns in zone coverage and sifting through the traffic to find open holes. Right now, that’s a weakness in his game, and a hindrance in him reaching a reliable week-to-week floor. While his physical gifts are tantalizing and see he can routinely separate from man coverage against inferior defenders, he’ll need to take a few steps to round out his game to a more predictable level...
While his route chart does not reveal anything too terribly nuanced, it does show a player who has progressed to the point where he has a very specific set of skills that are already above the NFL average. Meredith also recorded a catch on six of the eight type of routes he ran on Sunday, showing there is potential for him to win on them even if his overall success rate still needs work. Brian Hoyer will remember those moments.
Did the Bears uncover the next big thing on Sunday? It’s still too early to say. For now, Meredith looks like a player who is closer to the strong contributor level of player than a league-winning asset.
Yet, considering where he was regarded just a week ago, that’s quite a win for all involved. The Bears were hurting for receiver depth beyond Alshon Jeffery and it looks like they found a player to fill those shoes. Meredith appears to have snuck up on most of the world, myself included, so due shout out to all those who had an eye on him due to his athletic resume entering the NFL.
Sigmund Bloom likes Meredith as a sleeper against the Jaguars this weekend:
Meredith got everyone’s attention last week against the Colts, and he could stay in the spotlight against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has already allowed seven wide receiver scores in four games, and Alshon Jefferyis likely to the biggest amount of attention from the Jaguars young secondary. Brian Hoyer has already said he won’t force the ball to Jeffery, and Meredith was repeatedly getting open last week and rewarding Hoyer for targeting him. He goes straight from the wire into your lineup if you are having wide receiver depth issues.
My Advice: As a salve for your depth issues, I'm all for giving Meredith a shot. As a replacement for your WR2 or WR3 who is performing at or slightly below expectation? It depends on the matchup.
John Fox's Bears strive for a balanced game plan with Jordan Howard and I think if Blake Bortles and the Jaguars offensive line plays as they've had thus far, Chicago succeeds and it limits Meredith's upside. But I'm expecting Bortles to play well after its bye week as long as the weather in Chicago holds out.
It means Chicago will have to keep up and Meredith remains a significant part of the game plan. Start him if you need him.
3. Kids from Philly: welcome to the NFL halapoulivaati Vaitai
If there's a team that's as hospitable to the run as Oakland, it's Washington. Marc Trestman probably got canned for a myriad of reasons that had nothing to do with last week's game, but his decision-making against Washington on Sunday gave Baltimore cause. When Terrance West earns about 60 yards on four carries through the left side of Washington's line in the first quarter and the play caller doesn't continue exploiting an obvious weakness and the team loses the game, that play caller better have his desk emptied by Monday morning.
Watch West or Isaiah Crowell in Week 4 run through Washington's defense and it's no wonder the Eagles ground game becomes more appealing. One of Bloom's sleepers is Darren Sproles (his 27th back on his cheatsheet this week).
Washington has already allowed seven rushing touchdowns to opposing backs this year and two different backs have scored on them in two of five games this year. Sproles already has five red zone carries and two targets inside the opponent’s 20. This week, he’s much more likely to score if his number is called in a high leverage fantasy situation. He’s a better runner than Ryan Mathews (Bloom's 14th back on his cheatsheet) right now, and if Mathews gets dinged during the game, Sproles could also benefit and get a bigger opportunity against the porous Washington run defense.
The ambivalence I feel about Bloom's statement in bold is strong enough that I don't know whether I want to scream "idiot!" at my buddy or at "Mathews" for doing just enough bad things to warrant it. More on this in a moment. First, let's look at how the Eagles roll with Game Predictor:
| Teams | Pass Comp | Pass Att | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Pass Int | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TDs | Score |
|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 25 | 35 | 267 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 27 | 120 | 1.0 | 24.7 |
| at Washington | 23 | 37 | 264 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 21 | 84 | 0.6 | 20.6 |
That's a big-time trio of numbers there. The only teams that are similar or better are the Panthers, Titans, Cowboys, Bills, and Raiders. However, there's a "but" missing from this data.
Actually, a "butt" a big, skilled "butt" and I'm talking about tackle Lane Johnson's bubble. The reason I recommended the Eagles ground game as a sneaky good play earlier this year in this column had to do with the NFL losing Johnson's test sample. It meant Roger the Hall Monitor couldn't enforce the 10-game suspension and Johnson could play until the league found the sample.
Matt Bitonti did a great job of profiling this in his Week 1 Offensive Line Rankings. This week, Bitonti shares how the Eagles will proceed during Johnson's absence and he's not enthused about its plan:
After B-samples and appeals, starting right tackle Lane Johnson has finally been officially suspended by the league for ten games. Johnson will likely miss the entire remainder of ther regular season. Rather than shuffle Allen Barbre from left guard to right tackle, the team will be elevating rookie Halapoulivaati Vaitai to Johnson's starting position. Vaitai has good measurables but is extremely raw and it is not certain to keep this job for very long. The Eagles' offensive line had been among the best in football but without Johnson, they are barely hanging on to top-tier status. This situation bears further observation as it is unclear what the lineup will be exactly.
The Eagles don't run solely to its right, but running to the right is often a strong part of the game plan and the fact that Bitonti is this skeptical of Vaitai hanging onto this job is notable. If Vaitai doesn't exceed Bitonti's expectations, it means the Eagles will have to bring in a free agent or shuffle its line. If Philadelphia shuffles its line, it creates potential vulnerabilities elsewhere.
David Dodds has Mathews has his 19th RB this week and Sproles 32nd—definitely sleeper worthy. Tremblay's projections also fit the bill: Mathews 14th and Sproles 38th. Jeff Tefertiller sees Mathews as a value play this week:
- Top 200 ranking: 34
- Weekly ranking: 17
- Difference: +17
Mathews has not enjoyed the statistical success many expected. He has split time with Darren Sproles in the passing game and not received many red zone carries. Well, the game against Washington this week should be high scoring, and allow the veteran ball carrier scoring opportunities. Washington allows 32 PPR fantasy points to opposing running backs (fourth-worst in the league) so this could be the week Mathews gets untracked.
My Advice: Washington's run defense has been gashed everywhere. The Browns had success on the right and up the middle. The Ravens had success on the left side. And I expect the Eagles to go left and up the middle if Vaitai struggles early.
Mathews fumbled the game away last weekend because of one of this typical Mathews brain farts that he's had throughout his career. It's his combination of great talent and difficulty maintaining disciplined mental preparation that drives me crazy.
Mathews has the vision, balance, speed, agility, and power to be a perennial top-five runner from the time he was a rookie through the present. He had every bit the potential that Ezekiel Elliott is realizing as a rookie but he lacked the maturity to work at the game the way he needed. It's why I've wanted to scream when I watch the low points of his career. It's also why I want to scream when Bloom thinks that Sproles is a better runner right now.
I can't agree with that statement fully, but I can say that Sproles is a better football player than Ryan Mathews and has always been. Although I have concerns about the outlook for this offensive line if Vaitai struggles as Bitonti predicts, I don't think this is the week it all falls apart.
If you have Mathews, he's a good gamble as a boom-bust RB2 this week with high-end RB1 upside if he doesn't have another mental lapse that sends him to the bench.
Sproles makes a nice RB3 and a player that, for my own perverse pleasure as a fan, I would love to see earn feature back reps before he retires this year or next.
4. Buffalo Soldier: LeSean McCoy Draws the 49ers
If you've been paying attention, I mentioned Buffalo as one of those top rushing units from Game Predictor. Its outlook against the 49ers is 28 carries, 138 yards, and a touchdown. Dodds refines that data to 19 carries, 89 yards, 0.8 Tds (and 4-26-0.1 receiving) for McCoy—good enough for No.3 on his RB Cheatsheet this week and FanDuel's Consensus Rankings.
Bitonti has the 49ers defensive front ranked 25th overall. Wimer and Byrant list the 49ers as naturally a great matchup for the Bills rushing offense at home this weekend:
Last Sunday, Buffalo defeated Los Angeles with essentially the same mix of backs, but McCoy did most of his damage as a ball-carrier, with 18/150/0 rushing and 2/8/0 receiving at L.A. Taylor posted 5/28/0 rushing (again), while Gillislee handled 2/6/1 rushing. All told, the Bills ran for 27/193/1 as a team, embarrassing the front seven of the Rams.
The 49ers allowed 37/172/2 rushing to the Cardinals last weekend, after coughing up 39/194/1 to the Cowboys two games back. Right now, the 49ers' rush defense is a catastrophic failure. From Week Three to Week Five of regular season (the last three weeks), San Francisco averages 28.8 fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs per game (second-most in the NFL behind New Orleans' shambles).
Doug Drinen's Red Zone Details reveal that McCoy has seen 9 opportunities during the past 3 games:
| Player | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | Total |
|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | |||||||||||||
| Mike Gillislee | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||||||||
| Jerome Felton | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Jonathan Williams | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Glenn Gronkowski | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Reggie Bush | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| RB TOTAL | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
That's 10th-best among running backs during this span. The rest of the top 10 in no particular order: LeGarrette Blount, DeMarco Murray, David Johnson, Jordan Howard, Todd Gurley, Jerick McKinnon, Christine Michael, Carlos Hyde, and Matt Jones.
My Advice: You don't need my advice if it's different than "start him," but sometimes we all need a reminder that some calls are as easy as they look.
5. His Soul is marching on: john Brown
(And if you didn't know it, the 6'3", 219-pound, two-time Consensus All-American (1917-18) could ball...)
Speaking of easy, this week's Top 10 profiled Jets cornerback Marcus Williams as fresh fish.
The Jets secondary has allowed multiple plays over 40 yards this year and Marcus Williams let Sammie Coates Jr run by him like a bewildered parent watching an 8-year-old chase an ice cream truck.
Tefertiller believes the Jets will be a welcome sight for the beleaguered Carson Palmer.
- Top 200 ranking: 20
- Weekly ranking: 8
- Difference: +12
This week, Palmer has been cleared from the concussion that kept him out of the Thursday night game against San Francisco. The matchup against the Jets is a juicy one as only Oakland, Atlanta, and Detroit yield as many fantasy points to the quarterback position as does New York. With the Cardinals playing so poorly of late, we like this contest as a rebound opportunity for Palmer and company.
Although the projections love from Dodds, Tremblay, and Bloom lean heavily to Larry Fitzgerald, Dodds is the only one with John Brown (No.27) as better than a low-range WR3.
One of the reasons is the status of Darrelle Revis. The Jets have a Monday night game and it alters how one should perceive the practice schedule from an injury standpoint. A Thursday practice should be regarded more like a Wednesday session and a Friday session like Thursday.
Revis didn't practice with the team Thursday, but he participated in drills. Revis once again participated in individual and team drills on Friday, but it's far from a guarantee that he'll play. Even if he does, I wouldn't be surprised if he spends more time on a bigger, slower receiver than Brown.
If he does, I still expect Brown to see targets from Palmer. Footballguys' Target Report reveals that Brown's production could be on an upward trend:
Week 3-5 Target Report for WRs
| Player | TM | Wk3 | Wk4 | Wk5 | Targ | T/TmG | T/G | REC | YD | Y/R | TD | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | NYJ | 10 | 12 | 15 | 37 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 15 | 230 | 15.3 | 2 | 40.5 |
| Mike Evans | TB | 13 | 11 | 12 | 36 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 21 | 280 | 13.3 | 2 | 58.3 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | 13 | 13 | 9 | 35 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 24 | 285 | 11.9 | 3 | 68.6 |
| Antonio Brown | PIT | 18 | 5 | 11 | 34 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 25 | 282 | 11.3 | 3 | 73.5 |
| T.Y. Hilton | IND | 11 | 10 | 11 | 32 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 25 | 387 | 15.5 | 3 | 78.1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr/a> | NYG | 11 | 9 | 12 | 32 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 15 | 200 | 13.3 | 1 | 46.9 |
| John Brown | ARI | 11 | 16 | 4 | 31 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 17 | 225 | 13.2 | 0 | 54.8 |
Last week, Palmer didn't play. Otherwise, I'd expect Brown to have top-3 status among targeted receivers.
My Advice: Considering that Brown struggled to regain form early in the year due to a concussion, there's reason for optimism that with Palmer back, he's trending upward as an every-week option in three-receiver lineups. The Recent Game Summaries on Brown indicate this promise.
2016 Week 5 vs SF (4 / 1 / 11 / 0 rec)
While there is no way around the conclusion that John Brown was entirely uninvolved with the offense on Thursday, possibly calling into question his progress from the week before, the context surrounding Thursday Night's game may illustrate another picture. Brown has always been a favorite of Palmer, and the connection between the two has been well documented. He has always been better involved in the offense when it is consistently targeting chunk-plays, something Palmer does more often and better than Stanton does. He also was used as the second wide receiver in two-receiver sets far more often than Michael Floyd, increasing his snap-count, a trend that has continued as the season has progressed. He is a difficult fantasy evaluation at this stage of the season, but for those who felt increased optimism after Brown's week four outputs, those feeling should remain whenever Palmer does return.
2016 Week 4 vs LA (16 / 10 / 144 / 0 rec)
The single bright spot out of a home loss which significantly hampers your postseason odds, was the return of John Brown. Brown looked like his old self, healthy, well conditioned, and integrated in the offense's game plan. Brown was single covered the majority of the afternoon and he took advantage of it to the tune of ten receptions on a team high 16 targets. Brown was not able to make any big plays deep, but utilized his speed excellently in and out of breaks to dominate the short and intermediate areas. With the coaching staff's trust in Floyd at an all time low, Brown's targets and opportunities should only continue to increase over the next few weeks. The only question for fantasy owners will be who is throwing him the ball.
2016 Week 3 vs BUF (11 / 6 / 70 / 0 rec)
Unimpressive as it was, Sunday was John Brown's best game of the season. After missing the majority of training camp and the preseason, it isn't entirely surprising to see that Brown needed a few games to round back into form. Those are certainly positive signs going forward, and coming off this performance the Cardinals need as many of those as they can find, and yet Brown still did not play particularly well. Miscommunication with Palmer led to one of the many late game interceptions, an offensive pass-interference call negated a first down and Brown failed to contribute as a downfield threat in any meaningful way. Things do appear to be trending upward for John Brown, and Sunday he may have been a victim of the Cardinals disjointed offense as much as he contributed to it, so hopefully it will be sooner than later that we'll see the exciting, dynamic receiver of the last few years.
As much respect as I have for Revis, a hamstring that may still not be 100 percent decreases my confidence in him drawing Brown or matching up well with him. Revis has also been burned multiple times before the injury and one of those victimizers was Bills receiver Marquise Goodwin, who is fast but not a refined option otherwise.
If you're loaded with receiver talent, Brown may remain a questionable play. If not, start him.
