The Best of Week 3

Photo: USA Today Sports

You guys have a ton of articles. 

This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week. 

If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.  

1. Silver and Black Welcome Mat

One of the fun weekly pieces is Jeff Haseley's Beyond the Stats. Haseley drops nuggets of info that either affirm or belie what we think we know about players and teams. Haseley's note this week:

"On defense, they have been a sieve, allowing 34.5 points per game and over 800 passing yards allowed with 7 touchdown passes allowed in the first two games. Marcus Mariota—it's your turn." 

As the weekly Falcons contributor for our Game Recaps, I'm confident that Atlanta's offense is better with the addition of Mohamed Sanu, Alex Mack, and Kyle Shanahan's early invention of Tevin Coleman, "Space Player." But I'd be remiss in my duties if I let you believe Atlanta's offense was a huge reason why Oakland's defense has been a silver and black welcome mat.

Some former running back that Cecil Lammey was talking with—I believe it was Terrell Davis—said that the difference in the college ground game and NFL ground game is that college backs see holes and NFL backs see creases. I can tell you that last Sunday, Devonta Freeman earned holes in the Raiders defense—I'm pretty sure Joe Bryant could have pushed his barbecue trailer through one of them and gained five yards.

Cornerback Sean Smith has been an open door for wide receivers. He made my "Fresh Fish" list in Monday's Top 10 and I expect one of Tajae Sharpe and Rishard Matthews to earn 1-2 big plays on Smith. The best matchup against the Raiders defense for more than a year has been tight ends against this linebacking and safety unit. It's a big reason why John Norton in his Eyes of the Guru feature lists newcomer Reggie Nelson (17 solo tackles and 3 assists in two weeks) as an "every week must play at this point."

Where things may change is Jack Del Rio's decision to give first round pick Karl Joseph playing time. The safety doesn't have a defined role this week so it's safe to roll with Delanie Walker and DeMarco Murray as two of the safer components of the Titans' passing game. Both are strong starts this week and it's why Sigmund Bloom adds these components up and tabs Marcus Mariota as one of his "high-floor" sleepers.  

Both offenses earn love from David Dodd's Game Predictor:

My Advice: DeMarco Murray is in for a big day. Let's look at what he did when he faced a tough Vikings front in the opener and an athletic but undisciplined unit in Detroit. 

GAME LOGS

If you're a pessimist, Murray earns the same touches against the Raiders. If you're a realist, Murray's touches will generate similar, if not greater, production than what he did against the Lions last week. If you're an optimist, Murray earns more touches and is in store for one of his best weeks of the year. 

Barring long touchdown passes to Sharpe or Walker, Murray is the best bet for a huge day. It also makes Derrick Henry a good desperation play for those of you hit hard with injuries. I'd also use the Raiders defense as a tiebreaker if you're deciding between Sharpe or Matthews as that third or fourth receiver in your lineups. 

2. Generous Targets vs. Stingy Matchup: Trust Mike Evans? Yes.

Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant dictate the Buccaneers-Rams game as a Tough Matchup for the Tampa Bay passing game: 

The Rams' defense has also run cold-and-hot, getting blanked 0-28 in the season opener but then holding the Seahawks to three points during Week Two. Over the first two weeks of the season, L.A. has averaged 14.7 fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks (fourth-least in the NFL); and 15 fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers (fourth-least); with 6.9 fantasy points given up per game to tight ends (15th in the league). So far, the pass defense has been decent, averaging 204.5 net passing yards allowed per game, with just one passing score given out, despite having zero interceptions and just two sacks generated. Winston was off-target in Week Two - and he has a tough matchup to face here in Week Three.

Wimer and Bryant also note that "Mike Evans caught 35 percent of the 18 passes thrown his way (6/70/1)." That's right, Evans earned 18 targets last week. He wasn't at all efficient with them but considering that our Game Summary reporter stated that Patrick Peterson provided "fantastic coverage" and "followed Evans most of the day," despite the Cardinals coaching staff trying to deny this would happen during the week, there's good reason to think Evans will be more efficient against the Rams defensive backs. 

When it comes to Evans against the Rams do we side with the collective matchup of the defense or Evans' target rate regardless of the matchup difficulty? The Evans projections from the firm of Tremblay (WR27), Bloom (WR17), and Dodds (22) indicate "yes" for Evans as the third receiver in your lineups but they aren't bullish on his upside.  

My Advice: I'm going against the grain here and betting on Evans having a bigger week than projected. Against Atlanta's corners, Evans caught 71% of his targets (5 of 7 for 99 yards and a score) and it was clear last weekend that the Seahawks thought it could beat the Rams corners deep. The man it targeted repeatedly and found ways to match with Tyler Lockett and Paul Richardson Jr was Troy Hill. Although both receivers had offensive pass interference penalties called against them, Hill also committed multiple pass interference penalties and gave up multiple big plays to Lockett. 

It's unlikely Evans will draw Hill a lot this week (and Hill was questionable to return to the game after leaving it in the waning minutes with an injury that I can't find any follow-up reports about) but I'm not impressed by LA's stats. They're a paper champion. The team faced a hobbled Russell Wilson who was off-target on a lot of these deeper routes, which forced at least two of these pass interference penalties against his receivers, and the week prior, LA faced San Francisco's non-existent passing game that was led by recently acquired journeyman Jeremy Kerley.

Seahawks Target Report: Week 2 vs. LA Rams

Lockett also had a perfect reception-to-target percentage last week. None of these receivers are as physical as Evans. I expect the Buccaneers to throw a lot in this game and have a lot more success than the Seahawks. Even if Jameis Winston has a mistake-ridden performance, I'm betting on a 100-yard game from Evans and a touchdown.

Would it be crazy to say he'll have two scores? Probably. I don't care...make it two. And you think I'm nuts, you always have the support of Dodds, Tremblay, Bloom, Wimer, and Bryant telling you that he's not for two-WR lineups.

3. Keeping The Love Alive For Dennis Pitta?

The staff is split on this one. I might even go as far to say that the DFS crew thinks Jeff Pasquino and I are overly smitten. 

Not pretty, but 12 targets last week was gorgeous. Granted it was Cleveland, but Doug Drinen's Game Log Dominator is a great reference tool for further research into matters like these. 

Here are the last nine games Pitta played. It spans seasons of games and four years but the quarterback-receiver-head coach combination remains the same and I'll argue that Marc Trestman likes to target the tight end position. 

Dennis Pitta Game Log Dominator

Pitta earned double-digit targets in almost half of these contests. But there is a valid reason to question Pitta as a high-floor TE1 at the end of the top-12 list this week. The Jaguars may not be a good defense at this point but they haven't given up much to tight ends thus far. 

TE Against JAX in 2016

This isn't a strong stat at this point of the season but I recommend using the Points Against data as the season progresses. The underlying concern for the data is more about the player I could see posing a significant obstacle for the Flacco-Pitta connection: OLB Telvin Smith Sr.

John Norton did his usual good job of explaining why Smith is really a linebacker/safety hybrid with good coverage skill this preseason. If Myles Jack actually sees playing time, he'll also offer great coverage skill—and upgrade the unit significantly. You can read it all here. 

Even so, I'm betting on at least 5-7 targets for Pitta, 50-70 yards, and a touchdown this week. The Jaguars will face more athletic options at the position but few with the QB rapport, skill in tight coverage, scheme creativity as Baltimore's option. QB rapport matters. Flacco is an aggressive player and as you can see, he has no problem targeting his tight end in tight spots as often as wide open zones. 

 It speaks to precision and timing and I'm sold Pitta will have another solid week despite the presence of Smith in the shallow zones. 

4. Risk-Reward Stack of the Week

Scott Bischoff's Starting Stacks lists the Chargers' QB/WR combo of Philip Rivers and Travis Benjamin as a Higher Risk combo to consider in DFS this weekend: 

Philip Rivers ($8,000) + Travis Benjamin ($6,900) = $14,900

When Rivers and the Chargers travel to Indianapolis to take on the Colts on Sunday afternoon, they’ll bring an offense that is clicking in both phases. The Chargers are very balanced on offense but they’ll need to play at a faster pace in this game as the Chargers have surrendered the fourth most passing yards to date.

The Chargers have an implied total of 24.5 points but it is likely they’ll need to go over to stay with the Colts offense. With Chargers receiver Keenan Allen on IR, the No. 1 role falls to Benjamin and he should make plays in this game with Colts cornerback Vontae Davis out.

Benjamin saw six targets last week as Rivers’ No. 1 and converted all six into catches for 115 yards and two scores. While there is significant upside here, there is some risk as well as Rivers does like to spread the ball around to his weapons. I like the script here though and see a scenario where the offenses move the ball easily on defenses that can be had.

My Advice:  I agree with Scott and I'll go a little further with his analysis to point out that the Colts allow a lot of yards after the catch. After two games, Indianapolis has surrendered 179 yards after the catch per game—PER GAME!  There are seven teams in the league that hasn't allowed 179 yards after the catch after two weeks. 

One thing I know about Travis Benjamin is that he can make the first defender miss in the open field. I like this matchup a lot. You should, too. 

5. Do we really start A.J. Green against the Broncos? 

Speaking of defenses that don't allow much after the catch, teams average 80 yards per catch against the Broncos per game this year—6th-best in the NFL.  Although two games of data aren't reliable, the Colts and Panthers have some strong YAC players in their respective arsenals and we can loDenver'senvers 110.8 yards after the catch average (No.8) in 2015 as a good indicator that this unit is still strong against this aspect of the passing game. 

It's also good against the pass overall and it wasn't pretty for these two "high-powered" passing attacks in September: 

ALL WR AGAINST DEN IN 2016

Mark and Joe accurately call this a "Tough matchup" for the Bengals offense:

Mark and Joe say: Tough matchup. Andy Dalton got kicked in the shin last weekend, and was hobbling badly in the locker room after the game - keep an eye on his practice participation as the week goes along as shin/ankle injuries can be quite painful and difficult to manage. Dalton and company threw flares all over the Steelers between the 20s in this phase of the game last week, winding up with 31/54 for 366 passing yards, with one TD and zero interceptions thrown - but scoring didn't come in bunches.

Giovani Bernard led the team in targets (11) and receiving yards (9/100/1) while securing the available TD - meanwhile Brandon LaFell (eight for 3/39/0) and A.J. Green (eight for 2/38/0) mostly squandered their opportunities. A lone bright spot for the Bengals' receiving stable was the play of rookie Tyler Boyd (eight for 6/78/0).

We'll see if Green can get back to his Week One form (13 for 12/180/1) against the Denver defense. Speaking of the Broncos, they are currently ranked second in the NFL in average net passing yards allowed per game (173.0, with two passing scores balanced by two interceptions, one of which was run back by Aqib Talib for a TD last week vs. Indianapolis), and they are tied for second in the NFL with eight sacks (one of which was a strip-sack for a TD last week vs. Indianapolis).

Yes, they are awesome on defense again this year, folks. Over the first two weeks of the season, Denver has averaged 19.6 fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks (13th-least in the NFL); and 14.2 fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers (third-least); with 6.8 fantasy points given up per game to tight ends (16th in the NFL currently). This is a tough matchup for any offense in the NFL.

The firm of Tremblay (22), Bloom (17), and Dodds (14) are more optimistic about Green against this stingy Broncos defense than they are about Mike Evans but they still knock the "WR1" Green to a "WR2" value this week.  Last year, Green caught 5 of 9 targets for 57 yards and a score in Week 16 with A.J. McCarron at the helm. Here's the play-by-play detail:

WEEK 16 VS. DEN

The game recap from last year also gives us a little more context about Green's play because one one of Green's catches were "explosive plays" beyond 16 yards. 

Few things can simplify a young quarterback's game more than teammates stepping up and giving them a larger margin of error. While his 57 yards don't look impressive on the stat sheet, against the Broncos, A.J. Green did exactly that. Green got open easily against a tough secondary and did a phenomenal job of hauling in off-target passes to keep drives alive, especially on Cincinnati's two early touchdowns. While he was quiet later in the game, it wasn't because of any drop in his play. Green had several plays where he was open deep only for the ball to be delivered nowhere near him.

Marvin Jones or Mohamed Sanu didn't supply much help in this game. Jones had 3 catches on 7 targets for 33 yards and "overcame spotty ball placement."  Sanu ran for a touchdown and caught all three of his targets for 29 yards. 

Advice: Green is a boom-bust option this week. The "boom" comes from a few factors: 

• Green can beat anyone deep. 
• Green performed reasonably well with A.J. McCarron last year against Denver.
• Green doesn't look it, but every cornerback in the league will tell you how physical he is. 
• If Kelvin Benjamin earned 91 yards in Week 1, I'll lean towards Green holding up well against Aqib Talib if the targets are accurate enough for Green to make a play. 

The "bust" factors are Andy Dalton's deep accuracy against quality cornerbacks, the lack of proven weapons surrounding Green compared to last year, and the Denver pass rush. If your league only starts two receivers, I'd bench him. If it starts three, I'd deal with the boom-bust gamble and keep him in my lineup.