Normalized Strength of Schedule for 2015

Teams' offensive and defensive stats normalized based on past and future strength of schedule.

Now that we know the game dates for the 2015 regular season, we can examine each team's strength of schedule during critical junctures at both the start and end of the fantasy season. Offseason coaching, scheme, and personnel changes can cause the defensive strengths and weaknesses of a team to fluctuate from year to year, but there's still value in looking for cross-season trends.

I sometimes use this data as a tiebreaker in my preseason player rankings, and it helps me lean more heavily on a small sample of early 2015 data in cases where 2014 trends seem to be continuing. I'll release a new version of this data weekly during the regular season. The more weeks of data we collect, the more heavily you should lean on it.

Examining the difficulty of teams' first three games will tell you which players might get off to hot or cold starts. This can be useful when looking for trade targets or deciding which players to trade away. For example, if Philip Rivers (DET, @CIN, @MIN) or C.J. Anderson (BAL, @KC, @DET) get off to slow starts, you might pursue them more heavily in trades because of their challenging matchups. Conversely, consider selling high on Eli Manning (@DAL, ATL, WAS) or Tony Romo (NYG, @PHI, ATL) if they blow up in the first few weeks.

You might bump the AFC North players down your draft board a little because they'll face the NFC and AFC West this year instead of the weaker NFC and AFC South that they faced last year. On the flip side, the NFC South gets a reprieve from facing the northern divisions to square off in easier matchups against the AFC South and NFC East.

If you're feeling really bold, start planning for your fantasy playoffs by drafting Jonathan Stewart (ATL, @NYG, @ATL) or Kyle Rudolph (@ARI, CHI, NYG). It's a bit of a stretch to look at strength of schedule this far in advance without any 2015 data, but it could help you find a late-round flier.

Click on the blue text labels below to mix and match the time frames and data types. High numbers are green. Low numbers are blue. Green is good for offenses but bad for defenses. Because future raw data doesn't exist, 2014 data is re-used for future time frames. Normalized data predicts the future.

Data Type Descriptions

Raw Averages: Raw per-game stats for each team.

Production Percentages: Average percentages that teams have produced/allowed compared to other teams facing the same opponents.

Strength of Schedule: Average percentages that teams' opponents have allowed/produced compared to other teams facing the same opponents.

Normalized: Past time frames are normalized against past SOS. Future time frames are normalized against both past and future SOS.

Difference: Normalized stats minus raw stats.

 

Team: Offense Defense      
Stat Type: Positional FP Stat Categories      
Time Frame: 2014 Last 5 Games First 3 Games All of 2015 Weeks 14-16
Data Type: Raw Averages Production Percentages Strength of Schedule Normalized Difference
TeamPass
Att
Pass
Comp
Pass
Yds
Pass
TDs
IntRush
Att
Rush
Yds
Rush
TDs
ARI 0% 0% -1% -4% 12% -2% -5% -9%
ATL 0% 1% 1% 8% -6% 3% 5% 11%
BAL 0% 0% -2% -5% 1% 0% 3% -4%
BUF -1% -2% 0% 3% -12% 2% 4% 0%
CAR 0% 1% 3% 4% -4% 5% 5% 21%
CHI -1% 0% -3% 0% 5% -1% -3% -13%
CIN 2% 1% -1% -2% 4% -3% -3% -19%
CLE 0% 1% -1% -2% -9% -5% -6% -11%
DAL 0% -1% 3% 5% -2% 2% 2% 8%
DEN -2% -3% -3% -1% -12% 1% 3% -8%
DET 0% 0% 0% 4% 4% 2% 3% -5%
GB -1% 1% -2% -1% 5% -4% -5% -12%
HOU -1% -1% -1% -3% -14% 5% 8% 13%
IND 1% 2% 2% 5% -5% 3% 3% 5%
JAX 0% 0% 0% 3% -5% 3% 3% 4%
KC 2% 1% -1% 2% 4% -1% -3% -4%
MIA 0% -1% 1% 1% -9% 0% -1% -5%
MIN 0% 0% 0% -1% 12% -2% -3% -6%
NE 0% 0% 1% 5% -8% 0% -1% 2%
NO 1% 2% 3% 3% -2% 1% 1% 14%
NYG -1% 0% 2% 5% -4% 1% 0% 9%
NYJ 0% -1% 0% 1% 3% 4% 5% 4%
OAK 0% -1% -2% 1% -8% -1% 0% -11%
PHI -2% 0% 2% 1% 1% -2% -1% 9%
PIT 2% 0% -2% -9% 7% -1% 0% -9%
SD 1% 1% -2% 1% -5% 0% 1% -4%
SEA 0% 1% 0% -4% 15% -4% -4% -9%
SF 0% 1% 1% -9% 12% -2% -3% -5%
STL 0% 0% -2% 0% 15% -3% -6% -16%
TB 1% 2% 5% 4% -8% 2% 5% 22%
TEN 1% 0% 0% 0% -5% 5% 6% 9%
WAS 0% 1% 4% 0% 2% 1% 2% 16%
TeamPass
Att
Pass
Comp
Pass
Yds
Pass
TDs
IntRush
Att
Rush
Yds
Rush
TDs

Notes: Fantasy points are non-PPR. One point is awarded for every 25 passing yards, and two points are deducted for each interception.


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