Ace’s Aces
We move onto week 3, and what a weird week it is. The wide receivers have clearly been ahead of the pack thus far, but this week points to the top end running backs being the difference makers. Who do you play, Jamaal Charles or Adrian Peterson? Marshawn Lynch or Leveon Bell? With as many good running back matchups you’ll find this week, I expect lineups will be much more unique.
You won’t find Antonio Brown or Julio Jones in the column this week, as I am trying to avoid redundancy from week to week. I mentioned is last week but if you missed it, here is my advice. Brown and Julio belong in your cash games and GPP lineups every week regardless of the matchup. I wanted to add some players to the mix that you can supplement with the top end receivers.
Lots to get to, let’s get started.
Quarterback (Cash)
Carson Palmer (@Chicago) Price: $6500
Palmer was my #1 cash play last week and he did not disappoint. Despite throwing for only 185 yards, Palmer was dominant in the red zone. He locked in on Larry Fitzgerald, connecting three different times for touchdowns while also adding a fourth to Jaron Brown. He’s now totaled seven touchdowns in two games, but his salary is not reflective of that. It seems a lot of people are taking a “let’s wait and see” approach to Palmer, but I am not among them…I am all in on Palmer. Make no mistake, Palmer is the key to this offense. The Cardinals seem content with letting Palmer throw in the red zone, which is a main reason why his floor is so high this year. He has touchdown passes of 8 and 9 yards to Larry Fitzgerald, and 6 and 10 yards to John Brown. This week he has a great matchup at home against San Francisco. The 49ers are letting up the 7th most passing yards per game (273 yards) this year, so expect Palmer to put up another multi touchdown game and approach 300 yards passing.
Cam Newton (vs New Orleans) Price: $6250
There are some quarterbacks that I rarely put in play not because I don’t think they will hit value or have enough upside. It comes down to consistency, and Cam has always been one of those guys for me. Despite losing his top receiving option from 2014 (Kelvin Benjamin), as well as a host of injuries on the offensive side, Cam continues to have a stable floor. His rushing ability sets him apart from the other options in his price range, especially in a perfect matchup against the Brees-less Saints at home this weekend. The New Orleans defense is the 8th worst scoring defense, allowing 57 points and 760 yards of total offense through two games. The lack of receiving options has hurt his passing numbers, but he’s made up for it on the ground with 111 yards and a touchdown. This is the week to play Cam with confidence.
Quarterback (GPP)
Andrew Luck (vs Tennessee) Price: $7400
At 0-2 including a primetime loss to the NY Jets, the Colts Super Bowl hopes have taken a big hit. It is rare that Andrew Luck actually deserves to shoulder the blame, but he is certainly a big part of the problem right now. He’s averaging 247 passing yards per game, 1.5 touchdowns and 2.5 interceptions. Luck tends to throw a fair number of interceptions to begin with, but the turnovers in the red zone are what is killing Indy. Luckily they get a reprieve this week, traveling to Tennessee to take on the Titans and Marcus Mariota. Luck is a perfect 6-0 lifetime against the Titans, and considering an 0-3 start is looming I expect him to be in top shape. He looked a little too rusty for me to play in cash games, however he is too talented not to break out with a big game soon. I want him to be on my GPP lineups when he does.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs Philadelphia) Price: $6100
Fitzpatrick has been a journeyman throughout his NFL career, but what is often overlooked is that he has started at every one of his stops. His most successful campaign came in Buffalo with Chan Gailey as his offensive coordinator, making for an easy transition into the Jets offense this year. Gailey’s scheme is rooted in spread concepts which plays to Fitzpatrick’s strengths in the intermediate passing game. He is not the type of quarterback that you ask to win the game, but he is very good at delivering the ball to the players who will. There is a lot of talent around him at wide receiver with both Decker and Marshall creating mismatches on the outside/slot and in the red zone. Decker specifically increases Fitzpatrick’s ceiling with his efficiency around the goal line. The Jets have a positive matchup this week, hosting Philadelphia in a battle of polar opposites in momentum. This is a game that the Jets should win, and in many ways a defining game for Fitzpatrick. Eric Decker will most likely not play on Sunday which will hurt Fitzpatrick, but Brandon Marshall will be up to the challenge. A Fitzpatrick/Marshall stack offers salary relief with a high PP$ ceiling, perfect for GPP lineups.
Running Back (Cash)
Adrian Peterson (vs SD) Price: $6100
If you watched the Vikings game last Sunday, you must have noticed a familiar sight. That sight was Minnesota handing the ball to Peterson 29 times, for which he gained 134 yards. He also chipped in two receptions for 54 yards, and looked quite spry hitting the hole and punishing defenders who dared try to tackle him. The only downside was the two fumbles he gave up, something that is troubling but logical considering he missed most of last season. This is an interesting week for running backs, as Marshawn Lynch has the best matchup but is dealing with an ankle injury and will be a game time decision. Jamaal Charles plays on the road at Green Bay in what should be a game where he sees a high volume of touches, but it is not an ideal matchup. Leveon Bell returns for his first game of the year, playing a very tough Rams defense on the road in St.Louis. Matt Forte has the worst matchup of the week at Seattle, although I would not be surprised by a solid game due to 8+ catches. This leaves us with Adrian Peterson at the top. The Vikings are at home in a matchup with the Chargers. San Diego let up 162 yards on 30 carries (5.4 ypc) last week to Cincinnati, and 64 yards on 13 carries in their opener. Peterson’s floor is no longer in the 20 point range, but he still represents one of the most consistent running backs at the top this week.
Leveon Bell (@ St. Louis) Price: $6350
Tough matchup on the road against one of the league’s top defenses? First game back after being suspended for substance abuse? On the surface, there’s not a whole lot to like here, although it does get better as you pull back the layers. Antonio Brown is the best receiver in the NFL and Ben Roethlisberger is playing at a Super Bowl level, so Bell comes into a great situation and one that he is comfortable in. The Rams do pose a very tough matchup for the Steelers, especially if they are able to contain Antonio Brown and be aggressive rushing the passer. Bell has proven over his career that he is matchup proof, averaging 77 yards rushing, four catches for 43 yards and 19 total touchdowns in 29 career games. Bell is projected to be owned in the 20% range which does lessen his appeal somewhat. It won’t be enough to sway me though, his ceiling is too high to ignore.
Running Back (GPP)
Latavious Murray (@ Cleveland) Price: $4750
Murray is quietly working his way up my running back rankings each week. Part of it has to do with David Carr moving the ball and giving Murray more red zone opportunities, but I also can’t take away from how well he’s played. His numbers are not eye popping by any means, but compared to the other running back’s in his price range he is starting to separate himself. He gained 44 yards on eleven carries in week 1, however I was more impressed with how well he caught the ball, snagging seven receptions for 36 yards. In week 2 he helped Oakland pull of a monster win against the Ravens, rushing for 65 yards and a touchdown on fifteen carries, while also catching three balls for 22 yards. The Browns gave up big games to Chris Ivory (20 carries, 98 yards, 2 touchdowns) and Dexter McCluster (10 carries , 98 yards), making Murray an ideal breakout candidate. He’s shown to have a solid floor thus far, yet he’s done it without the game breaking big runs we saw last year. I like his chance to put it all together this week and return excellent value on his salary.
Marshawn Lynch (vs Chicago) Price: $5750
Much like Cam Newton, Lynch doesn’t find his way onto many of my rosters because I prefer running backs who catch the ball with much more frequency than he does. It was encouraging to see him catch five passes in week 1, as the passing game was responsible for roughly 40% of his total points. He plays at home against a struggling Bears team who will be without Ashlon Jefferey and Jay Cutler. Lynch should be featured heavily, with the game script pointing to a 20+ carry game. If he gets 20 carries, I would project his total points at north of 25. Lynch has by far the best matchup this week and should be played in both cash games and GPP’s. DISCLAIMER: Lynch is dealing with an ankle injury, and is questionable to play in week 3. He has a juicy matchup against the Bears, so it is worth monitoring up until game time. If he is unable to play, Fred Jackson makes for great pivot.
Wide Receiver (Cash/GPP)
Julian Edelman (vs Jacksonville) Price: $5650,
Edelman has been a staple in my lineups going back several years. Due to the other players around him, as well as how he goes about accumulating points, I don’t think he will ever possess a salary that is equal to his production. He is a player that should be in play every week in cash games, as well as GPP’s. The knock on his daily value has always been his lack of touchdowns, a more than fair argument. Edelmen had 10 touchdowns on 197 catches in 2013-14. This year is a different story, as Edelmen has 22 receptions for 194 yards and two touchdowns. He’s carved out such an important role in the Patriots passing game that it’s difficult to imagine a week where he doesn’t see 10+ targets, at a minimum. Other than Antonio Brown, he has the most stable floor among wide receivers. Put him in your cash game lineups, and keep him there.
Jarvis Landry (@Buffalo) Price: $4900
Speaking of Julian Edelman, Jarvis Landry is turning into Edelman light. He’s caught eight passes in each of the Dolphins first two games and has cemented his status as the centerpiece of the offense. I’ve been pimping Landry the first two weeks because he was a lock for a 3x return. Each salary has a projected ownership percentage baked into its equation, meaning players of equal projected points will be priced differently based on how popular they might be. Landry’s ownership percentage will increase this week, but it will not reach the point where it will dilute his production. The matchup against the Bills is a tough one overall, but Miami will need to depend on Landry to move the chains, especially if they are effective in shutting down the Dolphins running game. The Buffalo defense is good, but not at the level that would prevent me from playing one of the best values on the Sunday slate.
Donte Moncrief (@Tennessee) Price: $4450
Moncrief’s solid rookie season was overshadowed by guys like Kelvin Benjamin, Brandin Cooks, Davante Adams, Jordan Mathews and Mike Evans. Through two games this year, Moncrief has the best numbers of the bunch and is looking more and more like the #2 wide receiver Indy thought they were getting in Andre Johnson. Andrew Luck is in a slump, but it won’t last long and Moncrief is going to be the biggest beneficiary when it happens. He torched the Jets in a losing effort on Monday Night, but it was especially telling how often Luck looked to Moncrief on third downs. He has a nice blend of size and athleticism and is versatile enough to play in several spots, which gains him more snaps. In addition to his talent, he landed in a great situation with a high volume passing offense. Moncrief established his ceiling just a few days ago, but I would not be surprised in the least to see him pass that number at some point this season.
Wide Receiver (GPP)
Brandon Marshall (vs Philadelphia) Price: $4850
What a difference a punch can make. I’d like to think Marshall would still be putting up big games with Geno Smith under center, but I highly doubt it. Ryan Fitzpatrick may not be the savior, but he certainly saved Marshall’s fantasy value and in the process reminded so many people why he’d been such a force in recent years. Marshall has scored a touchdown in each of the first two games while averaging 80 yards on 6.5 catches. His matchup against Vontae Davis was one where Marshall was supposed to get shut down, but that obviously did not turn out well for Davis. Marshall has never played with a top tier quarterback, yet he continues to be among the league leaders in catches. With Eric Decker set to miss Sunday’s game against Philadelphia, expect Marshall to see 12+ targets, which he will convert into his third straight game with a touchdown.
Tight End (Cash/GPP)
Travis Kelce (@ Green Bay) Price: $5100
Kelce has not made his way onto many of my rosters due to his salary being in a tier that rarely pays off when compared to Rob Gronkowski (high-end ) or Jordan Reed/Heath Miller (on the low-end). There are more steady and reliable options at tight end than any year I can remember (through two games). I have since come around on Kelce’s true value though, which is a high ceiling combined with low ownership. He showed off his ability to create mismatches when he went over 100 yards with two touchdowns in week 1, something he has done more than once in his career. Jeremy Maclin is a nice trinket to show off, but Kelce is the #1B option in the passing game (Jamaal Charles #1A), and he always seems to be open in the middle of the field. The game script should favor Kansas City playing from behind and being forced to throw more than usual, so Kelce should get plenty of shots to rack up points. He makes for a better GPP than cash game play.
Kyle Rudolph (vs San Diego) Price: $4400
As I mentioned above with Kelce, the lower tight end tier has proven to be a gold mine this year. Rudolph may not have the break out season of Tyler Eifert, or be as explosive as Travis Kelce, but what he brings to the Vikings passing game is irreplaceable. In addition to a big body in the red zone, Rudolph is proven blocker who understands when to slip out of a block and get open in the flat. This is a key reason why Teddy Bridgewater has played so well, while also standing upright. Rudolph makes for a nice cash game play at his salary. You won’t win any weeks solely on the strength of a big Rudolph game, but you won’t lose any weeks either. I like him as a stable cash game option.
Team Defense (GPP/CASH)
Seattle (vs Chicago) $3200
When I am building my lineups, I have a noticeable tendency to choose my defenses right after I pick my quarterback. One of the reason is I want to see how defensive salaries affect my tiers. It is for this reason that I identify three to four mid-range defenses who have a reasonable chance of success. There is a lot of variance involved with Team Defenses and Special Teams, so I like to spread out my exposure as much as possible. This week happens to be different though, as Seattle has a dream matchup against a Chicago Bears team that is missing two of its most important offensive players (Jay Cutler, Ashlon Jeffrey). Jimmy Clausen will start for Chicago and will do well to make it out of the stadium walking, and not being pushed. This should be a game dominated by the defense with several interceptions/turnover, sacks and potentially a shutout. This is one situation where I am an advocate for spending top dollar for Seattle.
