Quarterback (Cash/GPP)
Cam Newton (vs Washington) Price: $$6800
With both Cincinnati and Denver losing last weekend, the Cam Newton led Panthers are one of only two remaining unbeaten teams (Patriots 9-0). Newton has done more than just win games though, he has become an unquestionable #1 fantasy quarterback and proven he doesn’t need elite talent around him to put up big numbers. He has three 30+ point games on the season, and has scored 20+ points in six of his nine games. Newton’s development as a passer has been well documented, but what has impressed me most is that is his rushing prowess has not suffered in the process. He’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in five games while rushing for a touchdown in six different weeks. This week he gets a Washington defense that has been especially generous to opposing quarterbacks, allowing multiple passing touchdowns in six of their last seven games while averaging 263 yards passing yards against. The Washington offense put it on a weak Saints secondary last week, but will not have nearly the same success against a Panthers defense that ranks as one of the league’s best units. Newton should have his fair share of short fields to work with, and considering he is playing at a MVP level, I fully expect him to turn in another stellar performance and rank as the #1 PP$ play this week at quarterback.
Quarterback (GPP)
Derek Carr (@Detroit) Price: $6700
If there is a quarterback who will give Newton a run for his money as the top PP$ play this week, it will be Derek Carr. He has gone from a potential franchise quarterback to a star in the making, to a basified star, all in a matter of 10 weeks. He was never projected as a bust, but many questioned just how high Carr’s ceiling was, especially with the talent that surrounded him his rookie year in Oakland. To the credit of the Raiders front office, they have put high level talent around him at the skill positions and Carr has responded with a breakout fantasy season that has placed him among the top five options each week. He’s thrown for 13 touchdowns over the last four weeks, including back to back four touchdown performances in weeks 8 and 9. Amari Cooper has star written all over him, and Michael Crabtree has rebuilt his career in Oakland and reminded so many why he was an early first round pick with San Francisco. Combine them with a solid rushing attack, and the Raiders have an extremely balanced offense that can hang with any unit in the league. It gets even better this week in a matchup against the Lions. Detroit currently ranks as the 23rd passing defense in the NFL (260 net passing yards per game), and they are dead last in TD:INT ratio, having given up 16 passing touchdowns to only four interceptions. There are several elite options at quarterback this week, but few offer the level of upside and affordability that Carr does. Plug him in your GPP lineups with confidence.
Alex Smith (@ San Diego) Price: $5650
The Chiefs were dealt with what appeared to be a death blow when they lost Jamaal Charles to a season ending knee injury. They lost their leading rusher and receiver, but more importantly they lost the one piece on offense that prevented defenses from dropping men in coverage and daring Alex Smith to beat them down the field. What’s happened since Charles knee injury has surprised many, including myself. Charcandrink West has stepped in and given the Chiefs a spark, proving to be Charles-like in his versatility and big play ability, which has gone a long way in opening up the rest of the offense for Alex Smith. Smith’s numbers have not been eye popping, but he’s hit 3x his salary multiple in six of nine games, while continuing to offer value as both a passer and a rusher. This week the Chiefs travel to San Diego where the will face off with a struggling Chargers team that has experienced their own injury woes in recent weeks. The Chargers defense has allowed an average of 23 points to opposing quarterbacks over the last four weeks, which includes an average of 300+ passing yards against in that timespan. Smith should approach that number with multiple touchdowns, and should have ample opportunity to pad those stats with rushing yards in a game that projects to be one of the highest scoring games of the weekend.
Running Back (Cash)
Devonta Freeman (vs Indianapolis) Price: $6300
After losing the battle of most expensive running back to Toddy Gurley the last two weeks, Freeman has regained that crown for week 11. When comparing the prices of Freeman vs Gurley ($6250), it is pretty clear that Freeman is the only one of the two that deserves to be priced that high this week. Not that Gurley has disappointed, but he now has the unenviable task of trying to run against a tough Baltimore rush defense, while having Case Keenum pilot the offense in Nick Foles absence. In contrast, Freeman is coming off a bye and gets a favorable matchup against the Colts, not to mention having Matt Ryan and Julio Jones to keep the Indy defense from keying too much on him. After setting the fantasy world on fire, Freeman has since come back down to earth, averaging 16 points per game over the last three weeks with only one touchdown scored. Part of the reason you pay up for the top tier of running backs is that they possess a level of upside that other running backs do not. Freeman displayed that upside over his first four week as the starter. The other part of why you pay up though is consistency, and Freeman has proven he is more than capable of living up to that end of the bargain as well. He’s dipped below 15 points only once since week 2. Freeman has a great matchup against a Colts defensive front that has allowed multiple rushing touchdowns on three different occasions this year. With Freeman having the bye week to rest his body, I fully expect him to come back this week and put up big numbers that will result in him being the highest scoring running back on the week.
DeMarco Murray (vs Tampa Bay) Price: $5000
With news coming down that Ryan Mathews will miss the Eagles game this Sunday, it is only appropriate that Murray step in as one of the best PP$ plays at running back this week. His salary is more than fair for a player of his caliber, and considering he’s had to deal with Mathews plundering his goal line carries (and some catches), Murray has done pretty well with the opportunities he’s had. He’s averaging over four catches per game, and has caught at least five passes in four of his eight games. While he has only topped 20 points twice on the season, he’s scored at least 15+ points on five different occasions despite Philadelphia struggling to pass the ball for much of the season. The matchup with Tampa Bay is advantageous for Murray, and I believe the entire Eagles offense will benefit from Mark Sanchez starting for an injured Sam Bradford. That is a sentence I never thought I’d write, but Bradford has been mediocre at best this year and has brought down the rest of the offense in the process. The game script looks to be favorable for Murray, with the Eagles giving him all the work he can handle. There is a good chance this game could turn into a shootout, which would only further enhance Murray’s upside. He may turn out to be more heavily owned than I originally anticipated, but he still makes for a great PP$ play, with the opportunity to be a difference maker in GPP’s.
Charcandrick West (@ San Diego) Price: $4950
I touched on West’s emergence earlier in this column, but to understand just how good he’s been, you have to look at his stats over the last three weeks. Keep in mind this was a running back who was merely an afterthought on a Chiefs team with Jamaal Charles first on the depth chart, and Kniles Davis (who filled in with similar success the last time Charles went down) at the #2 spot. West has averaged 92 yards rushing in his first three games as the Chiefs starter, while scoring a touchdown in each of those games. Additionally, he’s averaging three catches for 45 yards, and has also chipped in a receiving touchdown in that span. As mentioned, Kniles Davis filled in with #1 running back numbers the last time Jamaal Charles went down with an injury, so it is remarkable that West has left him holding the proverbial clipboard while he goes out and rips it up on Sunday’s. This week West and the Chiefs travel to San Diego in a game that I am targeting as a potential shootout. The Kansas City defense made Peyton Manning look his age last week, but I doubt they have similar success against Philip Rivers…even if he is dealing with a depleted receiving core. Targeting this game is a great way to take advantage of players who are priced in accordance with a low total score, but have the upside to be difference makers if the game script follows that of a high scoring affair. West is the prize of that bunch, so make sure you get him in your GPP lineups.
Wide Receiver (Cash)
Julio Jones (vs Indianapolis) Price: $6400
This is an interesting week in that Julio Jones is priced higher than Devonta Freeman, despite having much more competition relative to his position than Freeman. A big part of that is the matchup that Jones has against an inept Colts secondary that has yielded monster games to Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall (15 catches, 198 yards, two touchdowns), Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson (15 catches, 196 yards and one touchdown), DeAndre Hopkins (11 catches, 169 yards) and Kendall Wright (7 catches, 95 yards and one touchdown), as well as numerous other solid games against opposing receivers. As a unit, the Colts rank 28th in passing yards against (279 yards passing), and have given up a total of 16 passing touchdowns on the year. Both teams are coming off byes in week 10, which would usually favor the defense, but in this particular matchup the Falcons have an overwhelming advantage. You will have to pay up for Jones this week, but with DeAndre Hopkins traveling to Revis Island and Antonio Brown enjoying his bye week, Jones is the overwhelming favorite to score the most points at the wide receiver position. There are numerous bargains at running back, tight end and quarterback this week, so I have no problem paying a premium for Jones. His production should make it a worthwhile spend and justify his relatively high salary.
Wide Receiver (GPP/Cash)
Larry Fitzgerald (vs Cincinnati) Price: $5500
For the second consecutive week, the Cardinals will play on Sunday Night in a tough matchup. They took care of business last week against the Seahawks, but will face a tough test in previously undefeated Cincinnati. Larry Fitzgerald played a big part in the Cardinals win (as did Michael Floyd) last Sunday night, catching 10 passes for 130 yards, while routinely making tough grabs that kept Arizona drives alive. The most current reports have both Michael Floyd and John Brown as doubtful to play, which should only increase the heavy target volume that Fitzgerald has been enjoying all year. The Bengals have been stout on defense this year, but one area where they’ve been susceptible to being beat is by opposing #1 receivers. They were torched by Steve Smith (13 catches, 186 yards, two touchdowns), and Jeremy Maclin (11 catches, 148 yards yards), and let up touchdowns to Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins and Sammy Watkins. The Bengals have moved the ball very well on offense this year, so Arizona will need to score 20+ points in order to win. They will lean on Chris Johnson, David Johnson and Andre Ellington, but make no mistake about it, Larry Fitzgerald will have to play a big part on offense. His pricing is generous considering the injuries to Floyd and Brown, and is someone who I will have heavy exposure to this week.
Mike Evans (vs Philadelphia) Price: $5500
Similar to Fitzgerald, Mike Evans salary is exploitable given the lack of competition for targets. Vincent Jackson is considered questionable for Sunday, which is the first time he even has a chance to play in the last four weeks. In that time, Evans has totaled 27 catches for 492 yards and a touchdown, while establishing a rapport with rookie quarterback Jameis Winston. Like any first year quarterback, Winston has had his fair share of struggles, especially early on, but he has matured in way that has surprised me. Winston has become comfortable targeting Evans downfield, and that has resulted in three games of over 120+ yards receiving for Evans in the last four weeks. If there is a concern, it is in pass protection. The Bucs have a young offensive line, and that is evident in the fact that they have allowed 16 sacks on the season. Even worse for them, Philadelphia has generated 23 sack on the year, among the league leaders. This can go one of two ways, either Winston will not have the time to target Evans downfield, or the Bucs coaching staff will game plain against this and look to get Evans in jump ball situations where he is all but unbeatable against even the most physically talented quarterbacks. Given this point, I won’t have heavy exposure to Evans, but he will definitely be among a handful of receivers I am targeting in GPP’s, as his upside is so high that a big game out of him can single handily win you a GPP. This fact is multiplied if his ownership is as low as I am expecting (>8%).
Tight End (Cash/GPP)
Greg Olsen (vs Washington) Price: $4950
Olsen’s strength has always been as a receiving tight end, but this year he has been asked to carry a Panthers receiving core that was decimated by injuries and a glaring lack of depth. Olsen has responded with the best season of his career, recording five touchdown catches through nine games and recording five or more catches in five of those nine games. He’s gone over 65 yards receiving in seven games, including two 100+ yard games. He has a weekly ceiling that is only matched by Tyler Eifert, and surpassed by Rob Gronkowski, but he is nearly $1000 cheaper than Gronkowski (and $50 cheaper than Eifert). The tight end position has gotten a lot deeper in recent weeks with the emergence of guys like Delanie Walker and Ben Watson, but there is no bigger price disparity than from Gronkowski to the next highest priced tight end (Eifert). This makes sense because Gronkowski has a level of consistency that no other tight end can match. With that said, Olsen is next on the list, but you don’t have to pay a premium to roster him. With Gronkowski expected to be very high owned in an advantageous matchup for New England, Olsen is my preferred tight end, and the one I will have the most exposure to. Olsen makes for a great cash or GPP play.
