Below is our game-by-game week 1 analysis for the DraftKings Primetime Slate.
Alabama A&M vs Cincinnati
Kickoff: 7:00 PM EST
Spread: Cincinnati -42
O/U: 58.5
Cincinnati
QB – Gunner Kiel-
Analysis:
Gunner is in a great spot, as Cincinnati throws the ball as much as anyone in the country. The challenge with Gunner is he significantly underperformed in games that were decided by more than 30 points last year. The sample size isn’t great of these games, but he did not have over 250 yards passing in the 2 games that were greater than a 30 point differential.
Recommendation: In this big slate, there are safer options, he will be under owned due to the blowout potential of this game, so he is a GPP option if you think that Alabama A&M will keep this game slope for a little while.
Akron at Oklahoma
Kickoff: 7:00 PM EST
Spread: Oklahoma -31.5
O/U: 57.5
Oklahoma
QB- Baker Mayfield- $7,700
Analysis: Lincoln Riley coming over to Oklahoma this season is going to make it very intriguing for this upcoming season. Riley previously was an offensive coordinator at East Carolina, and prior to this he was at Texas Tech. This means one thing, he loves throwing the ball, and should do it early and often. We expect big things from Baker Mayfield, and one of the benefits he has today is that he is a new starter which typically means he will stay in the game longer than a normal blowout
Recommendation: He is a great play at his price, and can be used for both cash games and GPP’s.
WR- Sterling Shepard-
Analysis: While we love Baker Mayfield today, Sterling Shepard has a history of injuries, which means he most likely will not stay in the game longer than is absolutely needed. Sterling still has the capability to go off at any time, as he is one of the most talented wide receivers in college football, he just is overpriced for what should be a blowout game
Recommendation: Shepard is overpriced for this matchup, move on.
WR- Dede Westbrook
Analysis: Dede Westbrook is one of the top wide receiver transfers coming into this season. Last season he had 1,500 yards and 13 touchdowns at Blinn Community College. How this will translate to the Big 12 has yet to be seen, but it goes back to our general rule of thumb that a new player in a system will see more time in blowout games than a senior who has been in the program for a while.
Recommendation: Westbrook at this price makes for a great GPP play, and could be considered for a cash game punt play.
Akron
There are no fantasy relevant options for Akron in this large slate.
Arizona State vs Texas A&M (Neutral Site)
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Texas A&M -2
O/U: 67
Arizona State
QB – Mike Bercovici
Analysis: We saw a limited sample size of Mike Bercovici last year, and what we saw was incredibly impressive. In the games he was the starter, he threw for 488, 510, and 288 yards. The 288 yard game may not seem impressive, but it was against one of the best defenses in the country in Stanford. Now, the matchup couldn’t be any better for Bercovici, he is facing one of the worst defenses in the country last year in Texas A&M. While they should be better this year under new defensive coordinator John Chavis, we still believe Bercovici is in a fantastic spot to have a huge game.
Recommendation: Bercovici is one of our favorite quarterbacks in this slate and can safely be used in both GPP and cash games.
WR- D.J. Foster- $8,000
Analysis: D.J. Foster is a converted wide receiver, and while we like him long-term the price is just too much for this week. He is a possession/ppr type player, and does not possess the upside we are typically looking for in a player who is one of the more expensive wide receivers on this slate.
Recommendation: He is too expensive for cash games, and is does not present the upside for a GPP, we will avoid this week.
WR- Devin Lucien- $3,000
Analysis: If you have been playing CFB for a while, you’ll know the name, but maybe confused regarding why he is under the Arizona State write-up. Devin Lucien is a graduate transfer who was at UCLA the last four years. He was used as a deep threat the last few seasons at UCLA, but in this Arizona State offense, he is expected to fill the void left by Jaelen Strong who made a huge impact at Arizona State last year.
Recommendation: At $3,000 the upside is tremendous for Lucien making him one of our favorite upside punt plays of the day.
Texas A&M
QB – Kyle Allen $6,600
Analysis: Kyle Allen is one of the more overrated quarterbacks in college football. As a freshman last year, he really did not have any great yardage games, and without the threat of running makes it difficult to get to value. The matchup is a great one versus an Arizona State team who allowed 261 yards passing per game. He has one of the most skilled wide receiving groups in the country, and should see some improvements thus far for the 2015 Sophmore season.
Recommendation: Allen makes for a great GPP play, as the upside is there for the price, but he just hasn’t put it all together yet. Typically if we are looking at a non-mobile quarterback we are going to look for him to get to 300+ yards which is something Allen has never done, which essentially makes him not safe for cash games.
WR- Josh Reynolds and the rest of the Wide Receivers
Josh Reynolds is expected to take over a larger role in this offense now that Malcolme Kennedy has graduated. At the price, he is a good value, but the challenge is that Texas A&M has four wide receivers who all could break-out at any point (Speedy Noil, Ricky Seals-Jones, Edward Pople).
Recommendation: Any of the four wide receivers could make for a good GPP play, as any of them could have a monster game at any time. While Reynolds is the favorite to have a great game, it is so unknown that we are unable to recommend him for cash games.
Florida A&M at USF
Kickoff: 8:00 PM EST
Spread: USF -28
O/U: 39
A blowout game, with an over/under of 39, just avoid this in a 17 game slate and move on.
Louisiana-Lafayette at Kentucky
Kickoff: 7:00 PM EST
Spread: Kentucky -15
O/U: 58
Kentucky
QB – Patrick Towles- $6,300
Analysis: Patrick Towles is a guy who has high expectations coming into this season. Louisiana-Lafayette has a history of allowing huge passing yardage games to quarterbacks, and we expect no different today for Towles. Louisiana-Lafayette averaged 275 passing yards allowed, and Towles fits the bill to have a great game today.
Recommendation: Towles is a guy who we expect to have a huge game today, the game should remain close enough for him to continue to throw all four quarters, and we will be using him in both GPP and cash games this season.
RB- Stanley Williams
Analysis: Stanley Williams is one of the most elusive running backs in college football. He can quickly hit the long run that can easily make him a value play. The one issue is that he is not someone who can be trusted from a volume standpoint. If we could guarantee that he will get 15-20 carries he would be one of the top running backs on the slate.
Recommendation: Stanley Williams is a boom/bust type player, as Kentucky at times has completely eliminated running the ball from their play calling. Use in GPP games, but use with caution as the price isn’t great with the uncertainty.
Louisiana Lafayette-
RB- Elijah McGuire- $8,100
Analysis: Elijah McGuire ended the season as one of the top running backs in the country towards the end of last year and should see an increased workload now that their running quarterback Terrance Broadway has moved on to the NFL. Kentucky allowed 191 yards per game last year and we expect McGuire to get well over the 100 yard mark making him a great play.
Recommendation: He’s expected to be one of the top plays on this slate and one of the top plays for the rest of the season. He should be used in both cash and GPP.
South Dakota @ Kansas State
QB- Jesse Ertz
Analysis: Jesse Ertz is one of those guys who is largely unknown. He has the skills to be a great player and potentially have a good game, but also be aware that this is one of the riskiest players we will talk about for this week.
Recommendation: Be very careful and have very low expectations with him for this upcoming season. He is a pure punt play.
Georgia Southern at West Virginia
Kickoff: 7:00 PM EST
Spread: West Virginia -16.5
O/U: 55
Georgia Southern-
RB-Matt Breida-
We recommend avoiding Matt Breida this week, as West Virginia is a large favorite and this game could get out of hand. He is a great running back, but the loss of Kevin Ellison along with the overall expected game flow; he will not be in any of our lineups this week
West Virginia-
QB- Skyler Howard-$6,800
Analysis: Skyler Howard is a very interesting player, and it will be interesting to see how he performs after losing Kevin White and Mario Alford. Georgia Southern’s defense is not bad, as they allowed only 235 yards passing yards per game. We expect Skyler to out-perform that average as he is in an offense that allows him to throw the ball for a lot of volume.
Recommendation: Skyler Howard makes for a great QB2 for both cash games and GPP’s, as his floor is high enough combined with a high ceiling making him a great play.
WR- Jordan Thompson, Daikiel Shorts, Shelton Gibson
Analysis: These three wide receivers are all poised to have a great year and are at a great price. Mario Alford and Kevin White’s departure open up 174 receptions that should largely be shared amongst these three players. Finding which one is going to make a significant impact and be the number one guy is going to be challenging, but our favorite of the group is likely Daikiel Shorts, even though Thompson had the largest role last season. The reason for this is Thompson is only 5’7 and is expected to remain in the slot.
Recommendation: All of them are at a great price and are recommended as value plays. If we had to rank them we would have them ranked Shorts, Gibson, Thompson just due to pure upside. Thompson is definitely the safest and is probably the best cash game play of the group.
McNeese State at LSU
Kickoff: 7:30 PM EST
Spread: LSU -36.5
O/U: 49
Avoid this game and move on to the next one, as this game should get out of hand very quickly. Leonard Fournette is one of the best players in the country, but at $9,400, he is much too expensive to be considered in either a cash game or a GPP format.
New Mexico State at Florida
Kickoff: 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Florida -34.5
O/U: 54.5
Avoid this game, as there are a lot of questions on the Florida team. We expect that both Treon Harris and Will Grier will see significant amount of playing time as this game should get out of hand rather quickly. Kelvin Taylor and Demarco Robinson both present upside, so if you have to have a piece of this game they would be the guys, but they’re priced up too high to only have them play for a half of a game.
UNLV at Northern Illinois
Kickoff: 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Northern Illinois -22
O/U: 61
UNLV-Blake Decker- $5,800
Analysis: Blake Decker is a player who is very talented, but just doesn’t have a lot of talent around him. He threw for 397 yards last season versus Northern Illinois, his price is very intriguing and should be considered due to being behind most of the game, and the team will be forced to stay in the game with Decker
Recommendation: One of the best punt plays of the day for both GPP and Cash games.
Northern Illinois-
Joel Bouagnon- $5,000
Analysis: UNLV had the worst rush defense last year allowing 293 yards per game. Bouagnon is taking over the starting running back from Cameon Stingily who had over 100 yards and two touchdowns last year vs UNLV. We fully expect at minimum that barring injury Bouagnon to reach the 100 yard mark and find the end zone at least once.
Recommendation: Find a way to get Bouagnon in your lineup
Texas At Notre Dame
Kickoff: 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Notre Dame -8.5
O/U: 49
Texas-
Texas is still finding it’s identity on offense, and lost it’s best wide receiver and running back last year. This is largely an avoid team versus a tough Notre Dame defense
Notre Dame
Malik Zaire- $5,600
Analysis: Malik Zaire is one of the most raw dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation. We all saw what he was able to do versus LSU in the bowl game last year rushing for almost 100 yards. He is in a very difficult matchup versus a good Texas defense, but his rushing ability allows him to have significant upside.
Recommendation: Zaire is a GPP play only, as the game should be a very low scoring game, but due to his rushing ability he has the upside to be a punt play that could pay off.
Eastern Washington At Oregon
Kickoff: 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Oregon -35
O/U: 79.5
Oregon-
QB-Vernon Adams Jr- $8,400
Analysis: Typically we wouldn’t recommend a quarterback in a 35 point spread, as the blowout factor is too great. However, Eastern Washington has shown the ability to score and potentially keep this close for a little while. For those not familiar with Vernon Adams, he was the starting quarterback for Eastern Washington last season, so he is facing his former team. This should provide extra motivation for Vernon, as the transfer was filled with frustration from the Eastern Washington coaching staff. Adams is very talented as he threw for 55 touchdowns in 2013, and 35 touchdowns in 2014. He does not run as much as previous Oregon quarterbacks, but is still mobile enough to scramble for yardage.
Recommendation: Vernon Adams is one of our favorite plays today as his price is not horrible, and the upside to have 4-5 touchdowns prior to being pulled is definitely there as he will be looking to make a statement versus his former team.
Kani Benoit- $3,900
Analysis: When Thomas Tyner was ruled out for the season, this opened up a great opportunity for Benoit. While Royce Freeman is the starter, he is too expensive, and should be pulled rather early as Oregon cannot risk losing him to injury as their depth at running back is one of the weakest it has been in a long time.
Recommendation: Kani Benoit poses a little bit of risk, as while he is the favorite to get the second most carries in this game, Oregon has shown that you truly never know who will see the volume. He is a great punt play and a GPP play as he could play the entire second half once the game gets out of hand.
Oregon Wide Receivers: The issue with Oregon wide receivers is that they rotate so many wide receivers throughout the game, that it is hard to trust any of them. With this being such a high scoring game, Dwayne Stanford, Bralon Addison, Kirk Merritt make for GPP plays only, as any of them could break a long one.
Texas State At Florida State
Kickoff: 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Florida State -28
O/U: 60.5
Florida State-
Dalvin Cook- $7,800
Analysis: This recommendation really isn’t statistical, but is rather a recommendation based on Jimbo Fisher’s personality. Jimbo is a player’s coach, and after the Dalvin Cook trial/suspension, Jimbo has shown a history of feeding his players the ball after a game like this. Use him with caution as he missed a large number of practices, but this game is likely to be a blowout and Florida State will be able to do whatever they want against Texas State.
Recommendation: Cook is a deep GPP only, as he is overpriced for the matchup.
Northern Iowa At Iowa State
Kickoff: 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Iowa State -8
O/U: 60.5
Iowa State
D’Vario Montgomery
Analysis:D’Vario Montgomery is Iowa State’s top receiving option, the only issue with him is that it seems he couldn’t find the end zone last year with only two touchdowns. Iowa State is facing one of the better teams in the FCS, so this is not your typical blowout situation. Montgomery should be someone who is safe but does not have a ton of upside just due to his historical inability to get to in the endzone.
Recommendation:
There are better cash game plays out there today as we typically will recommend players who have a decent opportunity to get into the end zone.
Wisconsin at Alabama
Kickoff: 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Alabama -11.5
O/U: 46
Wisconsin-
Corey Clement-$5,700
Analysis: Corey Clement is taking over for Melvin Gordon, and while he faces one of the toughest teams in the country, he is someone at his price, he will see enough volume due to the inability to throw the ball for Wisconsin.
Recommendation: He is not a recommended cash game option, but he is someone who is a gpp play due to his talent combined with his low price.
Alabama-
No players recommended. We like Derrick Henry, but at his price, there are better values. Wisconsin has shown historically they have a strong defense, and Nick Saban has shown that he loves to have multiple running backs carry the ball.
Mississippi State at Southern Miss
Kickoff: 9:00 PM EST
Spread: Mississippi State -20.5
O/U: 61
Mississippi State
QB-Dak Prescott-$10,100
Analysis: Dak Prescott, is the top quarterback on this slate. He has the highest usage rate that should really only get higher now that Josh Robinson a talented running back has moved on to the NFL. Southern Miss has one of the worst defenses in college football, so there will not be a better matchup this season for Dak Prescott. The blowout potential is not as big of a concern due to the usage rage of Prescott being one of the highest in the country.
Recommendation: If you can find a way to afford him, he is the top option at the QB position for both Cash and GPP’s. We won’t find him in many of our cash game lineups, due to just being so expensive.
WR: De’Runnya Wilson- $5,200
Analysis: De’Runnya is one of the most physically gifted wide receivers in college football. He is the prototypical boom/bust type receiver who it will largely depend on if he can break a long catch or not. He is in a great position versus a Southern Mississippi team that is a poor defensive team.
Recommendation: De’runnya is a GPP play only due to the risk of him not catching a pass early and the game turning into a blowout.
Southern Mississippi-
We are not recommending any players from Southern Mississippi as they are one of the worst teams in the country.
Arkansas State at USC
Kickoff: 10:00 PM EST
Spread: USC -27.5
O/U: 66.5
Arkansas State-
We are not recommending any players from Arkansas State, as they in a very tough matchup versus a USC defense that should be one of the best in the country again this season.
USC
JuJu Smith-Schuster-$6,900
Analysis: Juju Smith-Schuster is taking over for the role of Nelson Agholar last year. We expect very big things this year from Juju, as he is ranked our #7 overall wide receiver heading into this season. There is a blowout concern here as well, but we fully expect Cody Kessler to find Juju early and often in this game to establish the connection
Recommendation:
At his price he is one of our favorite plays today, as Juju has the ability to score from anywhere on the field. Kessler is looking to have a Heisman type year and while Kessler is overpriced for the matchup, Juju comes in at a great price of $6,900. Looking back to the previous number one wide receivers you have special years from both Marqise Lee, Robert Woods, and Nelson Agholar, and we expect that Juju’s time to star is now.
Darreus Rogers -$4,900
Analysis: Darreus Rogers comes in as the #2 wide receiver at USC, which for this offense means there are a lot of passes coming his way. Facing an Arkansas State team that is a big underdog here, we fully expect Darreus Rogers to get his work in at especially at this price
Recommendation: Darreus makes for a strong GPP play, as he has the upside of having a very significant impact in this offense. There is some risk, as he did not play a significant role in the offense the last two years so he may share the volume that the number two receiver at USC typically receives.