There is a growing movement in the Dynasty community toward “devy” players. The term “devy” refers to developmental players carried on the dynasty league rosters. These devy players are usually college players but can even be high school athletes. During each week of the season, we will look at a different set of devy rankings.
Over the next few weeks, we will look at the potential 2017 NFL Draft class, beginning with the quarterbacks. Each year, we are surprised by players who should turn professional that stay in college and players who should stay in school but turn pro. Some quarterbacks have the size and skills that will easily translate to the next level. For the quarterback position, players have to meet minimum size thresholds (height, hand size, etc.) in order to be considered a “top prospect”. When we look back at others who overcame the odds due to size (Russell Wilson and Drew Brees are great examples), we notice that they were not drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft and were overlooked in the Draft process while talent evaluators focused on players who looked like the stereotype NFL quarterback. By the way, Brees moved past Dan Marino Sunday for 3rd place in passing yards. Marino had 61,362 and is now 4th.
As we survey devy prospects, we will be looking at traits, abilities, and skill sets that will translate to the NFL. So, let’s get started on passers who might be selected in the 2017 NFL Draft.
10. Seth Russell (Baylor) – In Friday’s blowout over Rice, Russell enjoyed his first 300-yard passing outing of the young season. He has now tossed nine touchdowns against three interceptions through three games. The redshirt Senior has the size (6’3”, 220 pounds) and arm strength to be an NFL quarterback. After suffering a neck injury last year, and witnessing the scrutiny and departure of Art Briles, there were doubts about whether Russell could regain his status in the national spotlight. Those concerns were squelched on Friday evening. Also helping Russell’s cause was Jarrett Stidham transfer out of Baylor which could allow Russell to stay in school another year without threat of competition. He may need the extra season to show that he is fully healthy and can still produce big numbers outside of the Briles-led offense.
9. Cooper Rush (Central Michigan) – Most will remember the memorable finish in the upset of Oklahoma State a week ago, but Rush had a great game. The 6’3”, 220-pound redshirt Senior completed 30 of his 42 pass attempts for 361 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception on the road in Stillwater. Last season, Rush threw for 3,848 yards and led the Chippewas to a bowl game. He has a chance to pass Dan LeFevour for the school passing record this year. Rush is a very average athlete who is a very good passer. He has the arm strength, touch, and pocket presence to be successful at the professional level. We believe Rush has a great chance to be a long-term NFL backup quarterback.
8. Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) – Few college quarterbacks are as fun to watch as Mayfield. He is elusive, inside and outside of the pocket, and makes plays keep drives alive. The issue for the redshirt Junior is his size. Standing just 6’0”, Mayfield will be overlooked by most draft evaluators. While Mayfield checks many of the other boxes (leadership, arm strength, playing in a pro-style offense, and pocket awareness just to name a few), his lack of height will keep Mayfield from being selected on the first two days of the NFL Draft. We expect him to measure a little less than his school-listed size. The poor outing against Ohio State Saturday night will not help Mayfield’s standing in draft circles. He looked overwhelmed by the talented Buckeye defense.
7. J.T. Barrett (Ohio State) – Barrett is another quality college quarterback who will be downgraded due to his lack of height. After disappointing in the 2015 season, Barrett has stepped up in a big way this year. Against lowly Bowling Green in the first game of the year, Barrett accounted for seven touchdowns. While researching Barrett, we found an interesting player comp, Tyrod Taylor. Jason Ferguson of Bleacher Report wrote, "Both Barrett and Taylor are true dual-threat guys … Like Taylor, Barrett can throw really well, maybe even better, and both can run the ball. When you watch each of them play, you will see that they get rid of it quickly and distribute the ball really well." Ferguson added, "There's no denying [Barrett's] production and pro potential as a dual-threat passer." The redshirt Junior is only 6’1”, but is much thicker than Taylor at 225 pounds. Barrett is solidly built and is a very good athlete. The redshirt Junior may stay in school another year and work on his passing. He has a great rapport with Curtis Samuel, Noah Brown, and the other Buckeye receivers.
6. Mason Rudolph (Oklahoma State) – After splitting time last season, Rudolph is now the Cowboys undisputed starter. The Junior has the look of an NFL quarterback with his 6’4”, 235-pound frame. But the issue is that he has the fatal mix of poor arm strength and lack of consistency. Not a good combination. Rudolph does have some supporters. This summer, Eric Galko of Optimum Scouting compared Rudolph to Ryan Tannehill. While we do not see the similarity, Galko wrote that the two passers were similar in terms of “body type, movement ability and composure, release point and velocity and issues in downfield throw placement.”
5. Chad Kelly (Mississippi) – Kelly is an NFL-type gunslinger in the mode of Jay Cutler. Like Cutler, Kelly has a very strong arm and is not afraid to aggressively throw the ball into tight spaces. While there is much to like about Kelly, there are a few things which give us pause in assessing his ability to transition to the NFL. First of all, we expect the Senior to measure in the 6’1” range. This is less than ideal height. Second, his decision-making – on and off the field - needs to be considered. Kelly throws far too many interceptions. Like Cutler, when things go bad for Kelly, there is a propensity for a multiple-interception game. Opposing defenses bait the strong-armed passer into making ill-advised throws. Lastly, Kelly will have some off-field concerns to address. CBS Draft guru, Dane Brugler, recently stated that Kelly has "several background issues" that have led NFL evaluators to question his "maturity and coachability, issues that will be fully vetted between now and next spring." We expect Kelly to be a second or third-day draft pick. These issues are too much risk for a high draft pick.
4. Luke Falk (Washington State) – Many discount the redshirt Junior due to playing in a Mike Leach-coached offense. Few of Leach’s quarterbacks ever sniff the NFL. We think Falk is different. He has the requisite size (6’3, 214 pounds) and is a very good passer with great pocket presence. NFL.com draft analyst Lance Zierlein wrote last month that Falk looks like a future NFL starter. That is high praise for the passer. Zierlein went on to say, “Falk will stand in and take the hit to deliver a strike, and he has mobility outside the pocket as well." The Washington State star gets little national exposure but puts up monster numbers in the Pacific Northwest.
3. Brad Kaaya (Miami) – The Junior has NFL size (6’4” 210) and arm strength. He works through his progressions well and is able to deliver the ball on time. ESPN's Todd McShay stated a few weeks ago that Kaaya "can really excel in a precision/timing-based offense." We see it, too. He makes great throws on timing routes but struggles when forced to hold the ball. His attributes would match up well with Andy Reid (in Kansas City) and Jay Gruden (in Washington). McShay did have Kaaya as his second-ranked quarterback for the 2017 NFL Draft. There are several potential NFL starters on this list so that is quite the compliment. All of the changes at Miami (graduations of Duke Johnson Jr, Clive Walford, and Phillip Dorsett and coaching departure of Al Golden) have hurt Kaaya’s development, but we believe he will be a first-round pick next spring. The huge game (completing 21 of 27 passes for 368 yards, three touchdowns, and one pick) over Appalachian State was a huge confidence booster.
2. DeShone Kizer (Notre Dame) – The redshirt Sophomore is a huge threat to the top player on this list. He could easily be the top pick of the 2017 NFL Draft. After his first two games of the season, many in the scouting community have Kizer as the top passer in the draft class. When watching the graceful Kizer move, we forget that he is a big man (6’4”, 230 pounds) and has a rifle for an arm. He definitely has NFL size and traits. If you are wondering whether or not Kizer has a chance to be a good pro, please consider that he has gone from a timeshare to Heisman favorite in just a few weeks and has only started a few games in his collegiate career. Kizer has attempted a little over 400 passes in his short career so we are tempering expectations until later in the year. After playing very well in the loss to Texas, Lance Zierlein compared Kizer to Steve McNair "from a size and diversity of talent standpoint." That is quite a compliment. Zierlein elaborated, "Kizer has that same arm strength to attack down the field and can make winning throws on the move … McNair was extremely difficult to rattle and Kizer appears to operate with that same confidence and calm. While McNair could beat teams with his legs, he looked to win from the pocket and I believe Kizer has that same trait."
1. Deshaun Watson (Clemson) – The Junior has not played well to begin the season. This has caused many to jump onto the Kizer bandwagon. While we would agree that Kizer has been great, we expect the Clemson star to get things going soon. Watson is one of the most electric players in college football. A year ago, he finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting and was named Consensus All-American. We still give him the benefit of the doubt for the slow start due to the strong play in 2015. Watson has a strong arm and is not afraid to throw the ball into tight spaces. His size (or lack thereof), at 6'2”, 210 pounds, is a worry for many after Watson's lengthy injury history early in his collegiate career. Adding a healthy Mike Williams back to the cache of weapons will only help. Hopefully, the strong outing in the blowout victory over South Carolina State will turn the tide. Watson is young, turning 21 years old during this season, and more than two years younger than a couple of quarterbacks on this list. Injury is the only thing standing in the way of a Top 5 selection in the 2017 NFL Draft.
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