There is a growing movement in the Dynasty community toward “devy” players. The term “devy” refers to developmental players carried on the dynasty league rosters. These devy players are usually college players but can even be high school athletes. During each week of the season, we will look at a different set of devy rankings.
In dynasty leagues that include devy players, there are a two main things to consider: when the player is NFL Draft eligible and how well the player's attributes will translate to the NFL level. Each of these seems straight forward. Well, they are not. We regularly see players, especially at the quarterback position, stay in school a year or two longer after they are draft eligible. In addition, just because a player is a great college player, it does not necessarily mean he possesses the size, speed, and aptitude for excelling at the professional level.
In this first installment of the season, we will look at the overall Top 20 devy players, counting down to the top player. Projecting college players to the NFL is more art than science. Expect this order to change as the season progresses and we see more from each player. We will examine the 2017 Senior class next week.
20. DeShone Kizer (Notre Dame) – The Fighting Irish quarterback emerged from last Sunday’s game against Texas with plenty of fans. He entered the contest in a timeshare but has now solidified himself in the starting role with a cannon for an arm and athleticism to keep defenses honest. When watching the graceful Kizer move, we forgot that he is a big man (6’4”, 230 pounds). He definitely has NFL size. If you are wondering whether or not Kizer has a chance to be a good pro, please consider the likelihood that one player could hold these Notre Dame records (according to the team’s web site) given the storied players the school has suited up:
2nd place: Single-Game Rushing Yards By Quarterback (Oct. 31, 2015 at Temple, 143);
2nd place (tied): Single-Game Touchdown Passes (Nov. 7, 2015 at Pittsburgh, 5;
5th place: Single-Game Rushing Yards By Quarterback (Nov. 28, 2015, at Stanford, 128);
7th place: Single-Game Total Offense (Oct. 31, 2015 at Temple, 442);
1st place: Single-Season Rushing Touchdowns By Quarterback (2015, 10);
4th place: Single-Season Rushing Yards By Quarterback (2015, 520);
4th place: Single-Season Completion Percentage (2015, 63.0);
4th place: Single-Season Points Responsibility (2015, 188); and
5th place: Single-Season Total Offense (2015, 3,404).
These are quite the accomplishments for the Junior passer. There is talk of him passing Watson below to be the top quarterback drafted in the 2017 NFL Draft. We think that is way premature, but still a possibility.
19. Courtland Sutton (Southern Methodist) – Sutton was only a three-star player (Rivals) coming out of Brenham, TX, but he has shown how that was a mistake. As a redshirt Freshman, Sutton broke Emmanuel Sanders Freshman record for receiving yards (862) and tied the NFL veteran with nine touchdowns as a Freshman. This strong season earned Sutton a spot on the USA Today All-Freshman team. He is a mountain of a pass catcher, (6’4”, 215 pounds) and uses his size well. SMU uses the tower receiver in the red-zone, but he is much more than a one-dimensional threat. As if Sutton’s athleticism was not chronicled enough, he played basketball for the Mustangs after last year’s football season was finished. Sutton is eligible to turn professional at the season. He is a sleeper to pass most on this list and be the third receiver taken in the 2017 NFL Draft.
18. James Washington (Oklahoma State) – The 6’0”, 205-pound Junior emerged in a huge way last season. Even with the likes of Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson, and Sterling Shepard playing in the conference, Washington led the in Big 12 receiving yards per game and touchdowns. Even though there are many receivers who possess more straight-line speed, Washington always finds a way to get open deep. Still just 20 years of age, Washington has plenty of room to develop his craft. This is why we are very high on the receiver few know outside of the Big 12 region.
17. Damien Harris (Alabama) – Harris is from small-town Berea, KY. but he was highly recruited out of high school. Many recruiting services had the 5'11”, 205-pound runner as the top back in the recruiting class. He is more polished than most youngsters, possessing speed, explosiveness, and the vision to cut back and find a lane to break open a big play. We saw these qualities on display in the big win against USC a week ago. Harris was VERY impressive in that outing.
16. Derrius Guice (LSU) – Even as a Freshman, Guice was able to get carries behind superstar Leonard Fournette. He will have to wait until after the season to be the primary ball carrier, but Guice has impressed. The 5'11”, 215-pound back was ranked RB2 by Rivals and has proven that to be an accurate ranking. Guice was the MVP of the US Army All-American game. We think he is a star in the making.
15. Christian Kirk (Texas A&M) – All throughout his football career, people have been discounting Kirk due to his smallish frame (5'11, 190 pounds), but the true Sophomore is one of the better receivers in the country. He played wide receiver, running back, kick returner, and defensive back in high school and his versatility has helped Texas A&M. Kirk is an elite athlete whose versatility will be viewed as a positive in the NFL. To us, he looks like a young DeSean Jackson, able to get open with ease any time he desires.
14. Josh Rosen (UCLA) –As a true Freshman, he showed the poise and a strong arm of an upperclassman. Many worry that Rosen is resting on his laurels and not putting in the time to reach his potential. So that is a concern for a player who achieved success early in his college career. Rosen has NFL size (6'4”, 208 pounds) and has excelled as a pocket passer. The youngster has the look of an NFL star. He is our second-ranked devy quarterback. We are hoping Rosen will take another step in his development.
13. Malachi Dupre (LSU) – The Junior possesses optimal size (6'3”, 195 pounds) and makes huge plays in the air. Dupre is tall and a tremendous leaper. He will grow into a red-zone threat over time. Dupre is not relied upon as much as he could be due to his team having Leonard Fournette lined up in the backfield. Those who just look at box scores will be disappointed in Dupre. Dupre is the player most likely to move down the rankings this season. But, the quarterback change has us hopeful. He has performed well when targeted in the passing game. Middling play from quarterback Brandon Harris has further limited Dupre's production.
12. Saquon Barkley (Penn State) – While not as highly touted as many on this list, Barkley was studly as a true Freshman in 2015. The 5'11”, 215-pounder is fast, earning the gold medal in the 100-yard dash for Eastern Pennsylvania. In his first collegiate year, Barkley carried the Penn State offense with the well-chronicled struggles of Christian Hackenberg. He is coming off a big game against Pittsburgh on Saturday.
11. Samaje Perine (Oklahoma) – After breaking the single-game rushing record as a Freshman, Perine has failed to live up the lofty expectations. The Sooners have graduated plenty of talent on the offensive line the past two years and have endured turnover at the quarterback position which has not helped the running game. The 5'11”, 243-pound ball carrier is big and fast (running a 4.48 40-yard dash). It is amazing that - entering the 2016 campaign - Perine has over 3,000 rushing yards through two seasons. He will be a factor in the very deep 2017 running back NFL Draft class.
10. Royce Freeman (Oregon) – The Junior has been the best asset on the Oregon offense since Marcus Mariota dashed for the NFL. Freeman is a big runner standing 6'1”, 220 pounds who gets little buzz in the Pacific Northwest since he plays after most of the fans east of the Mississippi are in bed. Freeman has improved as a runner and receiver every year as a collegian. With the depth of the next two running back draft classes, we expect Freeman to be undervalued by many fans and fantasy owners only to surprise as a professional.
9. Deshaun Watson (Clemson) – Watson is one of the most electric players in college football. A year ago, he finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting and was named Consensus All-American. Watson has a rifle for an arm and is not afraid to throw the ball into tight spaces. His size (or lack thereof), at 6'3”, 188 pounds, is a worry for many after Watson's lengthy injury history. Clemson has a cache of weapons for the electric passer to target, most notable Mike Williams (see below) as he returned from the awful neck injury. Watson is young, turning 21 years old during this season. Injury is the only thing standing in the way of a Top 5 selection in the 2017 NFL Draft. He did not play well Saturday and needs to rebound this coming week. Great players play great even against weak opponents.
8. Christian McCaffery (Stanford) – The versatile back is so good that most evaluators are searching for comparable players. For us, the 6’0”, 200-pound back will likely be relegated to passing-down specialty or a package player. McCaffery does run a 4.48 40-yard dash and is quick. We also admire the way he runs hard, even in the middle of the field. But, it is our belief that he is too light in weight to touch the ball more than 200 times in an NFL season. Going for him is age. McCaffery is just 20 years old and will not have a birthday until after the NFL Draft, assuming he declares. His fit in the right offense could still put up viable fantasy numbers, but we doubt the fantasy upside unless in leagues rewarding return yardage.
7. Corey Davis (Western Michigan) – Davis is still young (turning 21 years of age this past January) even though he decided to stay in school another season. He is a mature route-runner who understands how to give his quarterback space to throw the ball. Davis uses his big frame (6'2”, 205 pounds) to keep defenders away from the ball. The two questions Davis must answer are: Is he fast and explosive enough to create separation at the professional level and were the outstanding college numbers due to playing against inferior competition? We are unsure at this time whether the answer is “yes” to both questions. This is why we rarely see him ranked in the first round of 2017 mock NFL Drafts.
6. Calvin Ridley (Alabama) – Ridley enjoyed an impressive Freshman season. The 6'0”, 180-pounder easily seized the WR1 duties for the Crimson Tide. We expect Ridley to continue to add bulk to his slight frame. He is a dangerous receiver down the field and with the ball in his hands. But, Ridley has impressed most with his ability to win contested passes. He has an impressive ability to high-point the ball and aggressively attack it. This is a trait which will translate well in the NFL. For those who track the age of the incoming rookies, Ridley is one year older than most of the other Sophomore receivers, and two years older than one or two top pass catchers in his draft class. He still is a great prospect, nonetheless, after catching 75 passes for 893 yards and five touchdowns, as a Freshman in the run-oriented Alabama offense.
5. Dalvin Cook (Florida State) – The 5'11”, 197-pound tailback is a star in college. He is now a year past the legal issues. A compact frame, elusive open-field moves, and breakaway speed make a lethal combination for Seminoles opponents. We wonder if Cook may lack the size and durability to be a long-term NFL starter. He has endured multiple shoulder injuries and will need to stay healthy in 2017 in order to be considered a 2017 first-round selection in a deep running back class.
4. Mike Williams (Clemson) – After showing that he is back to full health, the dominant Williams jumped back to the top four players on this list. This is no small feat after the very serious neck injury. The 6'3”, 205-pound receiver is a budding superstar. Neck injuries for wide receivers are to be taken seriously so we will be watching him closely this season. Having possibly the best quarterback in the nation throwing the ball helps, too.
3. JuJu Smith-Schuster (USC) – The Junior will turn 20 years of age on November 22. He will be a 20-year old rookie, with plenty of upside and maturity if the pass-catcher turns professional after the season. Smith-Schuster has good size, 6'2”, 200 pounds, and runs great routes. He is able to get open with ease. This is one prospect who will continue to get better and better.
2. Nick Chubb (Georgia) – Before he tore his PCL in Georgia's sixth game last year, Chubb was included in the conversation for the top spot on this list. He has THAT level of talent. Now that he has shown the burst and explosion are back in the knee, Chubb moves back to the second spot, which is not an insult given who is number one. At 5'11”, 213 pounds, Chubb combines the strength to run between the tackles and enough burst to break off huge runs.
1. Leonard Fournette (LSU) – We expect Fournette to enter the NFL Draft this coming spring, and be the first running back selected. At a whopping 6'2”, 227 pounds (we actually think he is bigger than this weight), Fournette has been timed at 4.40 in the 40-yard dash. Fournette ranks as our top devy player overall for good reason. Unless injured, he will star in the NFL, just like he has in college.
Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.
