There is a growing movement in the Dynasty community toward “devy” players. The term “devy” refers to developmental players carried on the dynasty league rosters. These devy players are usually college players but can even be high school athletes. During each week of the season, we will look at a different set of devy rankings.
Last week, we began to look at the potential 2017 NFL Draft class, beginning with the quarterbacks. This week, we are examining the running backs who are eligible for the NFL Draft.
As we survey devy prospects, we will be looking at traits, abilities, and skill sets that will translate to the NFL. So, let’s get started on backs who might be selected high in the 2017 NFL Draft.
10. Jalen Hurd (Tennessee) – Hurd is talented but we worry that he may be too tall (6’4”) and stiff to be an effective pro. Will the Junior be able to keep his pad level low enough in the NFL? He does not have the power and burst of other big and tall backs (Adrian Peterson, Latavius Murray, Derrick Henry, Darren McFadden just to name a few), but some love Hurd’s talent. In an NFL.com article, an anonymous AFC scout opined that part of Hurd's struggles has to do with his poor offensive line. The scout said, "That offensive line at Tennessee is a mess … I think (Jalen) Hurd is really talented but he's going to have to get his own yards because they aren't going to open enough holes for him. I always feel like running backs who have it too easy struggle when they make it into the league, but Hurd won't have it too easy at all." In that article, Lance Zierlein said about Hurd, "When it comes to creating yardage through tackle breaking and physicality, Hurd is your guy … At 6-4, 240 pounds, Hurd has the freakish size to batter opposing tacklers, but he also has the top-end speed to run away from people when he has a runway.” Our fear is that Hurd needs the holes to be there to be effective. There are few holes in the NFL. The high-end comparison would be LeGarrette Blount with a Rashad Jennings-type of career possible.
9. Tarean Folston (Notre Dame) – The redshirt Junior has a compact frame (5’9”, 215 pounds) to be a very good pro. He is built like Maurice Jones-Drew in that he is short, not small. Folston is very thick. After tearing his ACL against Texas last year, Folston is still getting back into shape. We fully expect Folston to stay in school one more year but devy owners should file his name away. Folston is a very good receiver out of the backfield and will regain his explosiveness as he fully recovers from the knee injury.
8. Corey Clement (Wisconsin) – Even though he was listed as questionable with an ankle injury in the big matchup against Michigan State Saturday, Clement played and helped lead the Badgers to a huge upset victory over the Spartans in East Lansing. While the yards per carry average is lacking (barely over 2.00 with almost half coming on one carry), the bruising ball carrier was used to bludgeon the Michigan State defense. He now has rushed for a score in each of his last 6 games. The Senior has NFL size (5’10”, 227 pounds) and we expect him to be drafted on the third day of the NFL Draft.
7. Samaje Perine (Oklahoma) – After breaking the single-game rushing record as a Freshman, Perine has failed to live up the lofty expectations the past two seasons. The Sooners have graduated plenty of talent on the offensive line the past two years and have endured turnover at the quarterback position which has not helped the running game. But, this does not explain how Perine has been outplayed by Joe Mixon. By the way, Mixon is not included on this due to his off-the-field history. It is ugly. The 5'11”, 243-pound bowling ball back is big and fast (running a 4.48 40-yard dash). Few people would guess that - entering the 2016 campaign - Perine had over 3,000 rushing yards through two seasons. He will be a factor in the very deep 2017 running back NFL Draft class. His fantasy upside will be determined by landing spot. Perine would be a great fit in Carolina.
6. Wayne Gallman (Clemson) – The redshirt Junior is a great fit for the high-powered Clemson offense. He is a tough runner between the tackles and a very good receiver. Gallman is a bigger back (6’0”, 215 pounds) who will still need to add weight to his frame. In a recent NFL.com article, an NFC college scouting director called Gallman “underrated” and said, "he (Gallman) can do a little of everything. Runs extremely hard and can play on all three downs." Gallman burst on the scene in 2015, rushing for 1,523 yards and 13 touchdowns. Even though it gets little press, he is solid in pass production which should help Gallman see the field sooner as a pro. Due to poor play of the offensive line, Gallman has not enjoyed the stellar production in 2016. This may lead the Clemson star to stay in school another year.
5. Royce Freeman (Oregon) – The Junior has been the best asset on the Oregon offense since Marcus Mariota left for the NFL. He did get a scare in last week’s loss to Nebraska. The Oregon running back injured his right knee in the game and was seen on crutches this past week. It was comforting to see quotes from beat writers and Duck coaches saying the injury was not substantial and Freeman should return soon. We will keep a close eye on the Oregon tailback. Freeman is a big runner standing 6'1”, 220 pounds who gets little buzz in the Pacific Northwest since he plays after most of the fans east of the Mississippi are snuggled up in bed. Freeman has improved as a runner and receiver every collegiate year. With the depth of the next two running back draft classes, we expect Freeman to be undervalued by many fans and fantasy owners only to surprise as an NFL player.
4. Christian McCaffrey (Stanford) – The versatile back is so good that most evaluators are searching for comparable players. For us, the 6’0”, 200-pound back will likely be relegated to passing-down specialty and sub-package player. McCaffrey does run a 4.48 40-yard dash and is quick. We also admire the way he runs hard, even in the middle of the field. But, it is our belief that he is too light in weight to touch the ball more than 200 times in an NFL season. Going for him is age. McCaffrey is just 20 years old and will not have a birthday until after the NFL Draft, assuming he declares. Versatility and play-making ability on special teams may help move McCaffrey up to the first-round territory. His fit in the right offense could still put up viable fantasy numbers, but we doubt there is much fantasy upside unless in leagues rewarding return yardage. McCaffrey did post massive numbers (238 offensive yards) in the spanking of Southern Cal a week ago.
3. Dalvin Cook (Florida State) – The 5'11”, 197-pound tailback is a star for the Seminoles. He is now a year past the legal issues, but the NFL decision-makers will delve into the situation. A compact frame, elusive open-field moves, and breakaway speed make a lethal combination. Cook rushed for 1,691 yards in 2015 but has not been as effective this season. The poor outing against Louisville a week ago illustrated the issues. First and foremost, when Cook is running well, he attacks the line of scrimmage and gets up the field in a hurry. No dancing. When he struggles, Cook does not see the hole immediately and dances too much. In addition, we wonder if Cook may lack the size and durability to be a long-term NFL starter. He has endured multiple shoulder injuries and will need to stay healthy in 2017 in order to be considered a 2017 first-round selection in a deep running back class. Saturday, against South Florida, Cook had his best outing of the year. After not topping 100 rushing yards in a game Florida State’s first 3 games this season, Cook had 97 yards on his 3 carries (including 2 touchdowns). He had 185 yards on 9 first-half carries. USF is Cook’s slump-buster. He ended the contest with 329 total yards in the contest. We are interested to see if the big outing helps Cook turn the corner and get back his 2015 groove.
2. Nick Chubb (Georgia) – Chubb’s comeback has been nothing short of amazing. Before he tore his PCL in Georgia's sixth game last year, the Junior was included in the conversation for the top spot on this list. Many thought he was as good of a prospect as Leonard Fournette. Chubb was playing at that high of a level. Now that he has shown the burst and explosion are back in the knee, Chubb moves back to the second spot, which is not an insult given who is number one. He announced his return in a huge way, rushing for 222 yards and 2 scores on 32 carries, leading Georgia to a victory over North Carolina. The Bulldogs are in a rebuilding mode and lack talent on both sides of the ball. This has allowed opposing defenses to stack the box and dare the Freshman quarterback to throw. Chubb injured his ankle in the blowout loss to Mississippi Saturday. We will monitor the injury but early indications are non-threatening. At 5'11”, 213 pounds, Chubb combines the strength to run between the tackles and enough burst to break off huge runs.
1. Leonard Fournette (LSU) – We expect Fournette to enter the NFL Draft this coming spring, and be the first running back selected. At a whopping 6'1”, 227 pounds (we actually think he is heavier than this weight), Fournette has big-time speed (he’s been timed at 4.40 in the 40-yard dash). The Junior tailback had a monster game against Mississippi State to lead LSU to a 23-20 victory a week ago. In the contest, he rushed for 146 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 28 carries. Fournette ranks as our top devy player overall and will likely remain in the top spot unless injured. He will be a star in the NFL, just like he has been in college. The lack of a passing game has allowed defenses to crowd the line of scrimmage and Fournette has still been very effective.
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