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The very best fantasy owners know that the fantasy drafts are a mix of finding value and taking players they believe in and building the team around a few key pieces. In this article, we will give you a few options in which to maximize your fantasy draft.
First of all, we fully believe in finding value and taking the players that are expected to outproduce their respective draft position. However, this is best used inside a bigger plan for the draft. Below, we will give you several scenarios in which to build your team around in your fantasy draft.
Quarterbacks
At the quarterback position, there are two basic ways to come out ahead: take a star passer earlier or take two later. Let's expand on these two options. If you like having a star at the quarterback position, then plan on taking either Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers early in your draft. These are the only two players in the top tier. In fact, the expected production drops off considerably after the pair. If you plan on taking a quarterback early, it is best to go running back-heavy in the next two rounds. The depth at the wide receiver position is more than adequate to find starters at the position. The expected production of the rest of the quarterbacks is fairly bunched together. So, why take any in the early or middle rounds if not targeting Luck or Rodgers? We do not know, either. So, if you are not going to take a top two quarterback early, wait until at least ten have gone off the board, and take two of the following: Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, and Ryan Tannehill. Taking two of this group helps in a couple of ways: risk is minimized for injury or poor play and it allows you to play matchups. There will be weeks in which one of the group is a must start (e.g. Romo versus the Eagles in primetime). So, in summary, either take a quarterback early or take two later. In leagues which reward quarterback play, we like the idea of stashing either Brock Osweiler or Mark Sanchez late in the draft. Each could be a quality starter in a great offense if given the opportunity.
Running Backs
With running backs, there are a few players who are discounted because of injury risk or situation. The first player we would like to discuss is Arian Foster. Foster is looking at a return between Week 3 or Week 10. His current ADP (roughly 7th round) builds in too large of a discount for Foster even if missing the first half of the season and returning Week 10. Foster is a star when playing. He would be a Top 15 drafted player if healthy so why not plan to take the Houston tailback and stash for later. There is a chance he comes back early, giving you a bigger bang for the draft pick. Next, let's talk about a group of back up ball carriers who could produce if given the chance. Ryan Matthews is a talented ad proven player from his days in San Diego. Yes, he is behind DeMarco Murray on the Philadelphia depth chart. But, this is the same Murray who touched the ball 450 times in 2014. In addition, coach Chip Kelly is already limiting Murray's preseason usage. Matthews could put up fantasy starter numbers with ease. Jonas Gray is another player who is not mentioned often in fantasy circles. He is the reserve behind LeGarrette Blount in New England. Gray is a big, bruising runner who could excel if given the opportunity. Blount is suspended for the Week 1 matchup against the Steelers so Gray will get a chance early on. He is going undrafted in many drafts. One last player to consider in PPR (Point Per Reception) leagues is Danny Woodhead. The diminutive runner is now healthy and looks spry. Woodhead is a proven RB2 for fantasy owners even though he lasts until after the tenth round in many leagues. Many forgot about Woodhead after he missed almost all of the 2014 season due to injury. But, in 2013, Woodhead caught 76 passes, amassed 1,030 total yards, and scored eight touchdowns. Those are great fantasy RB2 numbers. Yes, rookie Melvin Gordon gets all of the publicity. But, draft the veteran from Chadron State and avoid the rookie given their respective prices.
Wide Receivers
There are some absolute studs at the wide receiver position. Since those players are obvious, we will look for players a little deeper in drafts. When looking for players to outproduce their draft expectations, we prefer to look for players on good offenses and avoid the poor passing teams. This narrows things down quickly. Interestingly, the two Patriots starting wideouts, Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell, are undervalued. They finished as WR17 and WR22, respectively, in PPR leagues a year ago. However, the pair are not drafted until the middle rounds of fantasy drafts. This is especially true for LaFell who frequently lasts until the ninth or tenth round yet finished the 2014 season as a fantasy WR2. Lastly, there are two aging veterans who offer tremendous values late, Anquan Boldin and Steve Smith. They finished as WR19 and WR18, respectively, a year ago. The kicker is that these two graybeards are available in the last five rounds of most drafts. No, they are not sexy picks. No one will give you a “high five” for a great pick, yet you have solid receiver starters at a cheap price. These four receivers, when combined with a quality WR1 give a fantasy owner a great receiving corps at a dirt cheap price.
Tight Ends
The recent injuries to tight ends Zach Ertz, Niles Paul, and Julius Thomas solidified our thought that a fantasy owner should plan to take a tight end relatively early. We like the idea of taking Rob Gronkowski in the first round, especially if selecting late in the round. If you miss out on Gronkowski, we highly recommend targeting either Greg Olsen or Martellus Bennett in the fifth round. Each is in a great situation. Olsen has little competition for targets. He is the security blanket for quarterback Cam Newton. For Bennett, his stock is rising with the injuries to Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White. With the best wide receivers slowed or out, we fully expect quarterback Jay Cutler to target Bennett early and often. Of the tight ends drafted later, Delanie Walker is the only one we feel comfortable recommending as a candidate to finish in the Top 5 at the position.
To maximize your draft, select players who represent great values and target some – or all – of the players above.
Please feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with any questions or comments. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIN, and Google+ so feel free to connect where most convenient.