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Eliminator Pool: Week 17

Footballguys.com Staff Pick One Team to Win Each Week in a Eliminator / Survivor Pool Format

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues.  For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread.  Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is adding a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week.  Just one?  That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long.  Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.  

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two pre-season articles, first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks.  Will it work?  We are about to find out.

I Will Survive

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week.

Staff Member Record Wk01 Wk02 Wk03 Wk04 Wk05 Wk06 Wk07 Wk08 Wk09 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17
Andy Hicks 15-1 SEA NE GB CIN MIN TEN KC DAL SD BAL PIT BUF DEN DET ATL LA INDY
Matt Bitonti 15-1 KC BAL MIA CIN PIT NE GB NYJ DAL AZ NYG BUF OAK DET ATL TEN WASH
Clayton Gray 15-1 SEA DEN MIA CIN MIN NE ATL NYJ DAL BAL NYG TEN OAK DET BUF GB INDY
William Grant 14-2 SEA CAR MIA WASH GB BUF DEN NE KC AZ NYG TEN NO DET ATL SD BAL
Mark Wimer 14-2 KC BAL MIA MIN NE PIT CIN NYJ DAL AZ OAK NYG DEN ATL SEA SD BUF
Andrew Garda 14-2 PHI BAL NYG HOU OAK BUF DEN MIN KC AZ PIT TEN SEA DET GB NE ATL
Bear Heiser 13-3 GB CAR SEA CIN PIT BUF ATL NYJ DAL AZ KC NYG NE DET OAK TEN INDY
Aaron Rudnicki 13-3 HOU CAR MIA AZ GB BUF CIN DEN KC AZ DET NO NE INDY ATL SEA PIT
Jeff Pasquino 13-3 HOU CAR MIA AZ NE BUF CIN MIN KC BAL OAK NYG DEN DET ATL SD PIT
James Brimacombe 13-3 INDY CAR MIA WASH NE BUF CIN MIN DAL AZ PIT NO GB ATL SEA SD PHI
Chris Kuczynski 13-3 KC BAL MIA DET PHI AZ CIN OAK DAL GB PIT NYG DEN MIN ATL NE SEA
Justin Howe 13-3 BAL DET MIA HOU PHI BUF NE MIN KC AZ NYG NO DAL CIN SEA GB ATL
John Mamula 12-4 SEA CAR MIA HOU NE PIT CIN MIN GB AZ OAK NYG DEN ATL KC SD BAL
Alex Miglio 12-4 SEA CAR MIA DET GB AZ ATL MIN DAL BAL NE BUF DEN CIN HOU TEN INDY
Jeff Haseley 12-4 KC SEA DAL CIN MIN AZ DEN NE GB BAL NYG BUF NO DET ATL SD TB
Justin Bonnema 12-4 HOU JAX MIA CIN MIN BUF TB DET DAL BAL KC NYG ATL INDY SEA NE GB
Devin Knotts 12-4 HOU DET MIA CAR NE GB CIN NYJ ATL BAL PIT NO DEN INDY BUF OAK SEA
Ari Ingel 11-5 SEA TEN AZ CIN NE DET GB MIN SD BAL KC NO DEN INDY TB MIA PIT
Jason Wood 10-6 HOU NYJ TB AZ NE CAR OAK MIN NO AZ NYG BUF DEN TEN WASH SD AZ
Dave Larkin 10-6 HOU CAR SEA NE PIT GB BUF MIN NO AZ KC DAL OAK DET BAL TEN INDY
Chris Feery 10-6 SEA OAK CAR AZ NE PIT DEN DAL KC NYG DET BUF GB INDY BAL TEN WASH

DISCUSSION

Twenty-one staffers are in the pool this year, and Week 16 turned out to be the worst week for the group all season.  Between the surprising victory by Cleveland and the loss by the Titans, 12 of the 14 losses piled up for the staff.  Losses by Seattle and Los Angeles rounded out the bad week, and all the losing certainly impacted the overall standings.  No set of picks is perfect any longer, and as many as six different staff members are within striking distance of winning the overall title this year.

With all the picks in now for our final week, there is a wide distribution of selections as you might expect.  Eleven different teams were picked this week, the most of any this season.  Indianapolis was the top choice with five selections, but even that is not without risk as Jacksonville always plays the Colts hard and Indianapolis is ripe for a letdown after having been eliminated from the postseason last week.  Pittsburgh comes in next with three selections as they host the Browns, but the Steelers are resting players prior to next week's playoff contests.  Four teams were chosen twice - Washington, Seattle, Baltimore and Atlanta - and only three of those teams are motivated to really pick up a win this week.  Baltimore is still gunning for a 9-7 record, but like the Colts the Ravens were also just eliminated from the playoffs.  Five unique picks round out the group with Arizona, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Green Bay and Tampa Bay all chosen one time each.  The Packers and the Buccaneers both need a win to keep playoff hopes alive, while Buffalo actually may be hoping to lose to improve their draft pick.  The final standings could certainly change significantly by Monday.

Please note a few things:  We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long.  Normally a Survivor / Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose.  That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.

Jeff Pasquino: I decided to stick with the script of my preseason plan for the final week of the season and go with PIttsburgh over Cleveland.  Even though the Steelers are resting players, you can only rest so many as there are just 53 players on the team and even the second squad for Pittsburgh is at least as competitive as the starters for the Browns.  Cleveland already secured their first win of the year last week over San Diego, so the Browns do not need to shoot for overcoming a winless season any longer.  In fact, a loss secures their first overall draft pick, so they may be motivated to let Pittsburgh win.  Las Vegas favors the Steelers as well, giving them about a touchdown of a head start.  With limited options left, Pittsburgh still feels like the best choice.

The Pick:  Steelers

Good luck this weekend! 

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.