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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is adding a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.
Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two pre-season articles, first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:
The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.
This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).
THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY
Here are the picks for this week.
Staff Member | Record | Wk01 | Wk02 | Wk03 | Wk04 | Wk05 | Wk06 | Wk07 | Wk08 | Wk09 | Wk10 | Wk11 | Wk12 | Wk13 | Wk14 | Wk15 | Wk16 | Wk17 |
Andy Hicks | 12-0 | SEA | NE | GB | CIN | MIN | TEN | KC | DAL | SD | BAL | PIT | BUF | DEN | DET | |||
Matt Bitonti | 12-0 | KC | BAL | MIA | CIN | PIT | NE | GB | NYJ | DAL | AZ | NYG | BUF | OAK | DET | |||
William Grant | 12-1 | SEA | CAR | MIA | WASH | GB | BUF | DEN | NE | KC | AZ | NYG | TEN | NO | DET | |||
Clayton Gray | 12-1 | SEA | DEN | MIA | CIN | MIN | NE | ATL | NYJ | DAL | BAL | NYG | TEN | OAK | DET | |||
Mark Wimer | 12-1 | KC | BAL | MIA | MIN | NE | PIT | CIN | NYJ | DAL | AZ | OAK | NYG | DEN | ATL | |||
Aaron Rudnicki | 12-1 | HOU | CAR | MIA | AZ | GB | BUF | CIN | DEN | KC | AZ | DET | NO | NE | INDY | |||
Bear Heiser | 11-2 | GB | CAR | SEA | CIN | PIT | BUF | ATL | NYJ | DAL | AZ | KC | NYG | NE | DET | |||
Jeff Pasquino | 11-2 | HOU | CAR | MIA | AZ | NE | BUF | CIN | MIN | KC | BAL | OAK | NYG | DEN | DET | |||
Andrew Garda | 11-2 | PHI | BAL | NYG | HOU | OAK | BUF | DEN | MIN | KC | AZ | PIT | TEN | SEA | DET | |||
James Brimacombe | 11-2 | INDY | CAR | MIA | WASH | NE | BUF | CIN | MIN | DAL | AZ | PIT | NO | GB | ATL | |||
Jeff Haseley | 10-3 | KC | SEA | DAL | CIN | MIN | AZ | DEN | NE | GB | BAL | NYG | BUF | NO | DET | |||
John Mamula | 10-3 | SEA | CAR | MIA | HOU | NE | PIT | CIN | MIN | GB | AZ | OAK | NYG | DEN | ATL | |||
Alex Miglio | 10-3 | SEA | CAR | MIA | DET | GB | AZ | ATL | MIN | DAL | BAL | NE | BUF | DEN | CIN | |||
Chris Kuczynski | 10-3 | KC | BAL | MIA | DET | PHI | AZ | CIN | OAK | DAL | GB | PIT | NYG | DEN | MIN | |||
Ari Ingel | 10-3 | SEA | TEN | AZ | CIN | NE | DET | GB | MIN | SD | BAL | KC | NO | DEN | INDY | |||
Justin Bonnema | 10-3 | HOU | JAX | MIA | CIN | MIN | BUF | TB | DET | DAL | BAL | KC | NYG | ATL | INDY | |||
Justin Howe | 10-3 | BAL | DET | MIA | HOU | PHI | BUF | NE | MIN | KC | AZ | NYG | NO | DAL | CIN | |||
Devin Knotts | 10-3 | HOU | DET | MIA | CAR | NE | GB | CIN | NYJ | ATL | BAL | PIT | NO | DEN | INDY | |||
Jason Wood | 9-4 | HOU | NYJ | TB | AZ | NE | CAR | OAK | MIN | NO | AZ | NYG | BUF | DEN | TEN | |||
Chris Feery | 9-4 | SEA | OAK | CAR | AZ | NE | PIT | DEN | DAL | KC | NYG | DET | BUF | GB | INDY | |||
Dave Larkin | 8-5 | HOU | CAR | SEA | NE | PIT | GB | BUF | MIN | NO | AZ | KC | DAL | OAK | DET |
DISCUSSION
The staff went 19 for 21 last week, with just two slip-ups with the Saints losing to Detroit. Unfortunately for Will Grant, this was his first loss, which leaves just Andy Hicks and Matt Bitonti with a perfect record on the season - but we are not done just yet. Four games remain, and each week is harder than the last. Week 14 looks rather chalky so far with two majority picks. Detroit was the favorite with nine selections, as the staff is clearly on the Las Vegas spread (Detroit by 8-9 points), the home favorite as a divisional leader, and also a vote against the Bears. Most of the staff who still had the Lions as an option went in that direction this week. Indianapolis is the second favorite with five selections, as the Colts look to avenge an earlier loss to the Texans from Week 6. Atlanta (at Los Angeles, three choices) and Cincinnati (at Cleveland, two picks) were the only other picks with more than one vote this week. Tennessee (hosting Denver) and Minnesota (at Jacksonville) are the unique selections this time around. This could be a great week, or a week of turmoil in the standings. We will now more soon enough.
Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor / Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.
COMMENTARY
Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.
Jeff Pasquino: It was no longer possible to stick with the script of my preseason plan, where I picked Denver at Tennessee. Fortunately I picked the Broncos a few weeks ago for a victory, but this is a tough week. Cincinnati looks like a shoo-in against the winless Browns, but there are several reasons I am staying away. The first two are my general rules of survivor, posted here, which says "do not take road teams" and "do not take divisional matchups". The next strike is that the Browns are coming out of their bye week, so they had two weeks to get ready for the Bengals. Snow is a wildcard, and so is Robert Griffin III III under center. Cleveland is desperate for a win, and this might be their one and only real shot with two road games (Buffalo, Pittsburgh) and a tough home contest (San Diego) left. All of that has me looking elsewhere. The problem is that there are not any big favorites this week (which I thought that it might be), and I have already used New England (which is not a lock against Baltimore). Everything led me to the Lions against the second-string Bears at home, in a dome and favored by more than a touchdown. Sure, it is a divisional game, but that's the only strike against this one, and in December it is never an ideal pick. I like Detroit to get a double-digit win and keep their two game lead in the NFC North.
The Pick: Lions
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.