Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is adding a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.
Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two pre-season articles, first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:
The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.
This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).
THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY
Here are the picks for this week.
Staffer | Record | Wk01 | Wk02 | Wk03 | Wk04 | Wk05 | Wk06 | Wk07 | Wk08 | Wk09 | Wk10 | Wk11 | Wk12 | Wk13 | Wk14 | Wk15 | Wk16 | Wk17 |
Andy Hicks | 11-0 | SEA | NE | GB | CIN | MIN | TEN | KC | DAL | SD | BAL | PIT | BUF | |||||
Matt Bitonti | 11-0 | KC | BAL | MIA | CIN | PIT | NE | GB | NYJ | DAL | AZ | NYG | BUF | |||||
William Grant | 11-0 | SEA | CAR | MIA | WASH | GB | BUF | DEN | NE | KC | AZ | NYG | TEN | |||||
Clayton Gray | 10-1 | SEA | DEN | MIA | CIN | MIN | NE | ATL | NYJ | DAL | BAL | NYG | TEN | |||||
Mark Wimer | 10-1 | KC | BAL | MIA | MIN | NE | PIT | CIN | NYJ | DAL | AZ | OAK | NYG | |||||
Aaron Rudnicki | 10-1 | HOU | CAR | MIA | AZ | GB | BUF | CIN | DEN | KC | AZ | DET | X | |||||
Bear Heiser | 9-2 | GB | CAR | SEA | CIN | PIT | BUF | ATL | NYJ | DAL | AZ | KC | NYG | |||||
Jeff Pasquino | 9-2 | HOU | CAR | MIA | AZ | NE | BUF | CIN | MIN | KC | BAL | OAK | NYG | |||||
Andrew Garda | 9-2 | PHI | BAL | NYG | HOU | OAK | BUF | DEN | MIN | KC | AZ | PIT | TEN | |||||
Jeff Haseley | 9-2 | KC | SEA | DAL | CIN | MIN | AZ | DEN | NE | GB | BAL | NYG | BUF | |||||
James Brimacombe | 9-2 | INDY | CAR | MIA | WASH | NE | BUF | CIN | MIN | DAL | AZ | PIT | NO | |||||
John Mamula | 8-3 | SEA | CAR | MIA | HOU | NE | PIT | CIN | MIN | GB | AZ | OAK | NYG | |||||
Alex Miglio | 8-3 | SEA | CAR | MIA | DET | GB | AZ | ATL | MIN | DAL | BAL | NE | BUF | |||||
Chris Kuczynski | 8-3 | KC | BAL | MIA | DET | PHI | AZ | CIN | OAK | DAL | GB | PIT | NYG | |||||
Ari Ingel | 8-3 | SEA | TEN | AZ | CIN | NE | DET | GB | MIN | SD | BAL | KC | NO | |||||
Justin Bonnema | 8-3 | HOU | JAX | MIA | CIN | MIN | BUF | TB | DET | DAL | BAL | KC | NYG | |||||
Justin Howe | 8-3 | BAL | DET | MIA | HOU | PHI | BUF | NE | MIN | KC | AZ | NYG | NO | |||||
Devin Knotts | 8-3 | HOU | DET | MIA | CAR | NE | GB | CIN | NYJ | ATL | BAL | PIT | X | |||||
Jason Wood | 7-4 | HOU | NYJ | TB | AZ | NE | CAR | OAK | MIN | NO | AZ | NYG | BUF | |||||
Chris Feery | 7-4 | SEA | OAK | CAR | AZ | NE | PIT | DEN | DAL | KC | NYG | DET | BUF | |||||
Dave Larkin | 6-5 | HOU | CAR | SEA | NE | PIT | GB | BUF | MIN | NO | AZ | KC | DAL |
DISCUSSION
Three staff members continue their perfect seasons as Will, Matt and Andy all picked up wins thanks to the Giants and the Steelers. It was interesting to me that two of them went with the Giants in Week 11 instead of saving them for their matchup in Cleveland this week, but I guess we shall see how it plays out. It is also the point in the season where survivors need to really map out the rest of the schedule. The Top 3 here are a great example, as all of these combatants now know that New England, Green Bay and Kansas City are no longer options for any of their choices. The intrigue increases if you start to look at who has what teams left, as Dallas, the Giants, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Seattle, Cincinnati, Arizona and Miami are all unique picks left for one of the three at the top. It takes a lot of planning (and some good fortune) to finish the year at 17-0, but it can be done. All the fun starts with this week's picks.
Only four staffers took a loss in Week 11, thanks to Kansas City's surprising loss to Tampa Bay. That adds to the total losses for the staff and brings the grand total to 47, but 11 of 21 staffers have two or fewer losses. That's a very respectable showing, but the final weeks really can shake things up. As I pointed out when I planned the whole season out in "I Will Survive", Week 12 is pretty straightforward if you saved the New York Giants. Cleveland is the worst team in the league, and the Giants are playing some good football. This is why it is not surprising to see most of the staff that still had New York available to select them this week. The third-most common pick was Tennessee, also on the road and visiting a team in a tailspin in the Midwest. Chicago's Jay Cutler is done for the year, and many Bears fans wish that could be said for their season. Buffalo was selected between the Giants and Titans, as the Bills are hosting the Jaguars and Buffalo is favored by a touchdown despite injuries to many skill position players. New Orleans comes in fourth place this week as several staff members believe that some home cooking is just what Drew Brees needs to take care of the Los Angeles Rams. Dallas had one unique pick as Dave Larkin believes that the Cowboys will continue their home streak despite hosting a divisional rival that just scored 42 points on the Packers. Week 12 could really tighten things up if there are any upsets this week.
Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor / Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.
COMMENTARY
Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.
Jeff Pasquino: Sometimes you just get things right. I am not changing from the script of my preseason plan, where I picked the Giants to go to Cleveland and leave town with a victory. The Browns are terrible and may not win a game this year (maybe at home against Cincinnati?). Either way, I like the Giants as a touchdown favorite and a money line favorite in Las Vegas at -320. That means they should win this game about 75% of the time, and I will take those odds any day, but especially for a survivor pick on the last weekend of November.
The Pick: New York Giants
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.