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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is adding a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.
Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two pre-season articles, first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:
The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.
This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).
THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY
Here are the picks for this week.
Staff Member | Record | Wk01 | Wk02 | Wk03 | Wk04 | Wk05 | Wk06 | Wk07 | Wk08 | Wk09 | Wk10 | Wk11 | Wk12 | Wk13 | Wk14 | Wk15 | Wk16 | Wk17 |
Andy Hicks | 10-0 | SEA | NE | GB | CIN | MIN | TEN | KC | DAL | SD | BAL | PIT | ||||||
Matt Bitonti | 10-0 | KC | BAL | MIA | CIN | PIT | NE | GB | NYJ | DAL | AZ | NYG | ||||||
William Grant | 10-0 | SEA | CAR | MIA | WASH | GB | BUF | DEN | NE | KC | AZ | NYG | ||||||
Clayton Gray | 9-1 | SEA | DEN | MIA | CIN | MIN | NE | ATL | NYJ | DAL | BAL | NYG | ||||||
Bear Heiser | 9-1 | GB | CAR | SEA | CIN | PIT | BUF | ATL | NYJ | DAL | AZ | KC | ||||||
Mark Wimer | 9-1 | KC | BAL | MIA | MIN | NE | PIT | CIN | NYJ | DAL | AZ | OAK | ||||||
Aaron Rudnicki | 9-1 | HOU | CAR | MIA | AZ | GB | BUF | CIN | DEN | KC | AZ | DET | ||||||
Jeff Haseley | 8-2 | KC | SEA | DAL | CIN | MIN | AZ | DEN | NE | GB | BAL | NYG | ||||||
Jeff Pasquino | 8-2 | HOU | CAR | MIA | AZ | NE | BUF | CIN | MIN | KC | BAL | OAK | ||||||
Ari Ingel | 8-2 | SEA | TEN | AZ | CIN | NE | DET | GB | MIN | SD | BAL | KC | ||||||
Andrew Garda | 8-2 | PHI | BAL | NYG | HOU | OAK | BUF | DEN | MIN | KC | AZ | PIT | ||||||
Justin Bonnema | 8-2 | HOU | JAX | MIA | CIN | MIN | BUF | TB | DET | DAL | BAL | KC | ||||||
James Brimacombe | 8-2 | INDY | CAR | MIA | WASH | NE | BUF | CIN | MIN | DAL | AZ | PIT | ||||||
John Mamula | 7-3 | SEA | CAR | MIA | HOU | NE | PIT | CIN | MIN | GB | AZ | OAK | ||||||
Chris Kuczynski | 7-3 | KC | BAL | MIA | DET | PHI | AZ | CIN | OAK | DAL | GB | PIT | ||||||
Alex Miglio | 7-3 | SEA | CAR | MIA | DET | GB | AZ | ATL | MIN | DAL | BAL | NE | ||||||
Justin Howe | 7-3 | BAL | DET | MIA | HOU | PHI | BUF | NE | MIN | KC | AZ | NYG | ||||||
Devin Knotts | 7-3 | HOU | DET | MIA | CAR | NE | GB | CIN | NYJ | ATL | BAL | PIT | ||||||
Dave Larkin | 6-4 | HOU | CAR | SEA | NE | PIT | GB | BUF | MIN | NO | AZ | KC | ||||||
Jason Wood | 6-4 | HOU | NYJ | TB | AZ | NE | CAR | OAK | MIN | NO | AZ | NYG | ||||||
Chris Feery | 6-4 | SEA | OAK | CAR | AZ | NE | PIT | DEN | DAL | KC | NYG | DET |
DISCUSSION
Last week I took a hard look at the three different paths our three top staff members have taken to a perfect record, and the fun still continues as all three picked up another victory to move to a perfect 10-0 on the season. While Andy Hicks, Matt Bitonti and Will Grant still set the pace, nearly everyone (sorry Chris) had their selection correct last week. That is relatively easy when most everyone was on Baltimore, but Arizona still gave about half the group a reasonable scare by not putting San Francisco away until very late. Chris was the only misstep for the week as the Titans put away the Packers handily in Week 10.
While we have just three staffers with a perfect record, there are plenty more with just one or two losses for the season. The level of difficulty starts to ramp up now with 10 teams off the board for possible selections, and this is where we start to see who has a plan to finish strong and who is just taking the best option from Las Vegas every week. This week we have some intrigue with six different selections, and all six choices were chosen with a different frequency. The Giants led the way with six picks, and it is clear to me that the six staffers going in this direction are picking not only for New York but against Chicago. The Giants are not favored by a large amount (3-4 points), but they look to be a pretty solid selection for the week. Pittsburgh comes in next with five choices as the Steelers visit the Browns. Normally this is a trap in picking a road team visiting a divisional foe, but we are talking about the Browns here. Kansas City is the third-most popular choice with four picks as the Chiefs host Tampa Bay, who got a victory last week thanks to another epic Jay Cutler meltdown. Oakland was chosen three times as the Raiders "host" the Texans in Mexico City after Oakland's bye week. Detroit got two votes as the Lions also return to action after a week off to host Jacksonville, while the Patriots were our only unique pick as New England visits San Francisco. New England is the biggest point spread favorite (-13.5) according to Las Vegas. Six staff members still had the Patriots left as a choice, but only Alex Miglio went in that direction this week. It is important to notice those trends as many teams are nearly used up for the staff for the rest of the way, so planning out the final 6-7 selections is really important at this stage. If Week 11 is any indication of how challenging the rest of the season will be, we are in for an entertaining finish.
Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor / Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.
COMMENTARY
Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.
Jeff Pasquino: I decided to go away from the script of my preseason plan, where I picked the Bengals over Buffalo. Clearly I both underestimated the Bills and also overvalued Cincinnati back in August, because I want no part of that game this week. I reduced my pick down to Dallas (vs. Baltimore), the Giants (hosting the Bears) or Oakland (vs. Houston in Mexico City). I want the Giants next week against Cleveland (any pick against the Browns at this point looks good to me) and I am also saving the Cowboys for later. When I look at Oakland's remaining schedule, I fail to see any better time to use the Raiders (home vs. Carolina, hosting Buffalo, at Kansas City, at San Diego, home against Indianapolis, at Denver) so if I ever want to pick the Raiders, now is the time.
The Pick: Raiders
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.