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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is adding a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.
Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two pre-season articles, first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:
The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.
This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).
THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY
Here are the picks for this week, along with last week's results:
Staff Member | Record | Wk01 | Wk02 | Wk03 | Wk04 | Wk05 | Wk06 | Wk07 | Wk08 | Wk09 | Wk10 | Wk11 | Wk12 | Wk13 | Wk14 | Wk15 | Wk16 | Wk17 |
John Mamula | 7-1 | PIT | OAK | NE | SEA | PHI | ATL | TEN | NO | HOU | ||||||||
James Brimacombe | 7-1 | BUF | OAK | NE | SEA | PIT | HOU | DAL | PHI | NO | ||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | 7-1 | PIT | OAK | GB | ATL | MIN | HOU | DAL | PHI | SEA | ||||||||
Bear Heiser | 7-1 | BUF | AZ | MIA | SEA | IND | WAS | TEN | CIN | NO | ||||||||
Jason Wood | 7-1 | BUF | BAL | PIT | SEA | MIN | HOU | DAL | CIN | NO | ||||||||
Devin Knotts | 6-2 | BUF | SEA | LAR | GB | PIT | KC | TEN | MIN | HOU | ||||||||
Andy Hicks | 6-2 | DEN | SEA | NE | GB | PIT | ATL | MIN | CIN | HOU | ||||||||
Ari Ingel | 6-2 | LAR | OAK | PHI | GB | DET | DEN | TEN | NO | JAC | ||||||||
William Grant | 6-2 | ATL | OAK | GB | NE | PIT | WAS | PHI | MIN | HOU | ||||||||
Stephen Holloway | 6-2 | BUF | OAK | PIT | SEA | PHI | ATL | TEN | MIN | HOU | ||||||||
Justin Bonnema | 6-2 | BUF | SEA | MIA | AZ | PIT | HOU | TEN | CIN | PHI | ||||||||
Justin Howe | 6-2 | LAR | OAK | MIA | SEA | PIT | HOU | BUF | CIN | NO | ||||||||
Jeff Haseley | 6-2 | HOU | SEA | GB | AZ | PHI | DEN | DAL | CIN | NO | ||||||||
Matt Bitonti | 6-2 | HOU | OAK | NE | KC | PHI | ATL | DAL | CIN | NO | ||||||||
Dave Larkin | 5-3 | BUF | BAL | GB | SEA | PIT | ATL | CAR | MIN | PHI | ||||||||
Alessandro Miglio | 5-3 | ATL | SEA | GB | NE | IND | DEN | CAR | PHI | NO | ||||||||
Aaron Rudnicki | 5-3 | BUF | OAK | GB | NE | PIT | DEN | MIN | PHI | HOU | ||||||||
Andrew Garda | 5-3 | BUF | AZ | MIA | DAL | MIN | CAR | TEN | ATL | JAC | ||||||||
Mark Wimer | 5-3 | BUF | OAK | MIA | JAC | MIN | DEN | TEN | PHI | LAR | ||||||||
Chris Feery | 5-3 | HOU | OAK | NE | SEA | PIT | ATL | MIN | PHI | NO |
DISCUSSION
Week 8 was a great week for the staff, as all 20 picks were all correct (Atlanta, New Orleans, Minnesota, Philadelphia and Cincinnati), although there were a few nailbiters in there (Bengals 24-23 over the Colts). As we reach the midpoint of the regular season, we are definitely seeing the impact of earlier choices. There were two top choices this week for home teams as big favorites. Both the Saints (-7.5 over Tampa Bay) and the Texans (at least 12.5 point favorites at home against the Colts) were chosen eight and five times, respectively, but those choices were definitely impacted by Weeks 1-8. Roughly half of the staff had used the Texans or the Saints in prior weeks, and seven of the staff had already used both franchises. That's important to note as we are entering the back half of the year and planning the rest of the season really starts to get important. The three other teams chosen by the staff were also impacted by prior choices, as I am sure that both Philadelphia (two picks this week) and Seattle (just one) would have been more popular if not for prior decisions. The Eagles were already used by 12 of the staff prior to this week, and Seattle had been used 13 times. The only other choice that the staff employed this week that was hardly impacted by prior selections was Jacksonville (two picks) as only one staff member had used them before. Week 9 could be eventful, but the real takeaway would be that if you are in a big pool and still alive, it is a very valuable exercise to plan out the next 8-9 weeks for your picks to make sure good options still remain.
Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor / Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.
COMMENTARY
Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.
Jeff Pasquino: I decided to stick with my preseason plan and keep my Seattle choice for Week 9. It is a tough week with six teams on a bye once again, and Houston is not available. I was debating using Jacksonville or even New Orleans, but I let Vegas help me out a bit this week. When I get stuck and need a tiebreaker, the point spread is one factor, but another is the Money Line, which implies which teams are most likely to win the game outright. Considering that is the goal for this pool, I went there and compared Seattle (-350), New Orleans (-330) and Jacksonville (-240). The more negative the number the better, so the line confirmed my choice of the Seahawks. With Washington traveling a long way to the state of Washington and lacking one of their better players (tight end Jordan Reed), this helped to convince me to ride the hot hand of Russell Wilson in Week 9.
The Pick: Seattle
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com