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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is adding a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.
Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two pre-season articles, first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:
The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.
This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).
THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY
Here are the picks for this week.
Staff Member | Record | Wk01 | Wk02 | Wk03 | Wk04 | Wk05 | Wk06 | Wk07 | Wk08 | Wk09 | Wk10 | Wk11 | Wk12 | Wk13 | Wk14 | Wk15 | Wk16 | Wk17 |
Andy Hicks | 8-0 | SEA | NE | GB | CIN | MIN | TEN | KC | DAL | SD | ||||||||
Matt Bitonti | 8-0 | KC | BAL | MIA | CIN | PIT | NE | GB | NYJ | DAL | ||||||||
William Grant | 8-0 | SEA | CAR | MIA | WASH | GB | BUF | DEN | NE | KC | ||||||||
Clayton Gray | 7-1 | SEA | DEN | MIA | CIN | MIN | NE | ATL | NYJ | DAL | ||||||||
Bear Heiser | 7-1 | GB | CAR | SEA | CIN | PIT | BUF | ATL | NYJ | DAL | ||||||||
Mark Wimer | 7-1 | KC | BAL | MIA | MIN | NE | PIT | CIN | NYJ | DAL | ||||||||
Aaron Rudnicki | 7-1 | HOU | CAR | MIA | AZ | GB | BUF | CIN | DEN | KC | ||||||||
Jeff Haseley | 7-1 | KC | SEA | DAL | CIN | MIN | AZ | DEN | NE | GB | ||||||||
John Mamula | 6-2 | SEA | CAR | MIA | HOU | NE | PIT | CIN | MIN | GB | ||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | 6-2 | HOU | CAR | MIA | AZ | NE | BUF | CIN | MIN | KC | ||||||||
Ari Ingel | 6-2 | SEA | TEN | AZ | CIN | NE | DET | GB | MIN | SD | ||||||||
Andrew Garda | 6-2 | PHI | BAL | NYG | HOU | OAK | BUF | DEN | MIN | KC | ||||||||
Justin Bonnema | 6-2 | HOU | JAX | MIA | CIN | MIN | BUF | TB | DET | DAL | ||||||||
James Brimacombe | 6-2 | INDY | CAR | MIA | WASH | NE | BUF | CIN | MIN | DAL | ||||||||
Chris Kuczynski | 6-2 | KC | BAL | MIA | DET | PHI | AZ | CIN | OAK | DAL | ||||||||
Alex Miglio | 5-3 | SEA | CAR | MIA | DET | GB | AZ | ATL | MIN | DAL | ||||||||
Justin Howe | 5-3 | BAL | DET | MIA | HOU | PHI | BUF | NE | MIN | KC | ||||||||
Devin Knotts | 5-3 | HOU | DET | MIA | CAR | NE | GB | CIN | NYJ | ATL | ||||||||
Dave Larkin | 4-4 | HOU | CAR | SEA | NE | PIT | GB | BUF | MIN | NO | ||||||||
Jason Wood | 4-4 | HOU | NYJ | TB | AZ | NE | CAR | OAK | MIN | NO | ||||||||
Chris Feery | 4-4 | SEA | OAK | CAR | AZ | NE | PIT | DEN | DAL | KC |
DISCUSSION
Twenty-one staffers are in the pool this year, and we are just about halfway through the season. The staff had a rough Week 8 with Minnesota tanking on the road at Chicago, which gave the group nine total losses last week and now 40 overall for the group on the year. Remarkably, three staffers are still a perfect 8-0 on the season, so congrats to Andy Hicks, Matt Bitonti and Will Grant on getting that far this year in what has been a tough season to make winning picks. Can they go the distance? It all starts with this week's picks.
As I pointed out when I planned the whole season out in "I Will Survive", Week 9 is another minefield. Six teams are on a bye but unlike last week, several teams are favored by five or more points, so there are several reasonable choices for the week. The question is, which team to pick and which ones to save for later? The group seemed to land on two teams for the most the most part this week. The top choice is Dallas, traveling to Cleveland and the home of the winless Browns. Dallas is favored by about a touchdown this week, but Cleveland has to win at some point, right? The Cowboys could find themselves in a trap game here as they are on the road and against a non-conference team, but on paper they should get the victory. While 8 of 21 staffers chose the Cowboys, six went with the second-most popular option, Kansas City. The Chiefs are hosting the 2-5 Jaguars, but Kansas City is going to have to start Nick Foles at quarterback and could be on their third string running back. Three other teams were chosen twice, Green Bay (hosting the Colts), New Orleans (at San Francisco) and San Diego (hosting Tennessee). The Saints look to be the shakiest of those three selections, as they are on the road and Drew Brees and company typically play better at home. The one and only unique pick is Devin Knotts' choice of the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football at Tampa Bay. A road team on a short week against a divisional rival has its own set of red flags, but you have to make some risky picks to move up the standings. This could be a tough week, so stay tuned for the results.
Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor / Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.
COMMENTARY
Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.
Jeff Pasquino: I decided to go away from the script of my preseason plan, where I picked Seattle hosting Buffalo on Monday NIght Football, mostly because I think the Bills are better than they were supposed to be this season and Seattle is not too tough just yet. I still think the Seahawks win that game, but last Monday burned me, so maybe I just want to get my pick out of the way. Dallas and Kansas City both looked reasonable, but I made my pick based on going with a home team. To be honest I am not 100% convinced of it, so this feels like a rough week. I am going to trust Las Vegas and the 7.5 point line (and -330 to -360 money line, putting the Chiefs at about a 75% chance to win) and hope for the best.
The Pick: Chiefs
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.