Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is adding a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.
Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two pre-season articles, first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:
The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.
This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).
THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY
Here are the picks for this week.
Staff Member | Record | Wk01 | Wk02 | Wk03 | Wk04 | Wk05 | Wk06 | Wk07 | Wk08 | Wk09 | Wk10 | Wk11 | Wk12 | Wk13 | Wk14 | Wk15 | Wk16 | Wk17 |
Chris Kuczynski | 1-0 | KC | BAL | |||||||||||||||
Mark Wimer | 1-0 | KC | BAL | |||||||||||||||
Matt Bitonti | 1-0 | KC | BAL | |||||||||||||||
Andrew Garda | 1-0 | PHI | BAL | |||||||||||||||
Bear Heiser | 1-0 | GB | CAR | |||||||||||||||
Aaron Rudnicki | 1-0 | HOU | CAR | |||||||||||||||
Dave Larkin | 1-0 | HOU | CAR | |||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | 1-0 | HOU | CAR | |||||||||||||||
Alex Miglio | 1-0 | SEA | CAR | |||||||||||||||
John Mamula | 1-0 | SEA | CAR | |||||||||||||||
William Grant | 1-0 | SEA | CAR | |||||||||||||||
Clayton Gray | 1-0 | SEA | DEN | |||||||||||||||
Justin Howe | 1-0 | BAL | DET | |||||||||||||||
Devin Knotts | 1-0 | HOU | DET | |||||||||||||||
Justin Bonnema | 1-0 | HOU | JAX | |||||||||||||||
Andy Hicks | 1-0 | SEA | NE | |||||||||||||||
Jason Wood | 1-0 | HOU | NYJ | |||||||||||||||
Chris Feery | 1-0 | SEA | OAK | |||||||||||||||
Jeff Haseley | 1-0 | KC | SEA | |||||||||||||||
Ari Ingel | 1-0 | SEA | X | |||||||||||||||
James Brimacombe | 0-1 | INDY | CAR |
DISCUSSION
Twenty-one staffers are in the pool (with one to still catch up with the rest of us). Last week was relatively uneventful, although Seattle, Houston and Green Bay had some scares. Only James Brimacombe tripped on the call of the Colts at home against Detroit, which I did warn folks about as anyone can win a shootout. I predicted that this game could be a 37-34 type contest, and I wasn't far off at all (39-35 final, should have been 37-35 if not for a meaningless safety on the final play). So with 20 perfect starts, the staff should be feeling good about Week 2 selections.
This week's picks are in, and I have to say that I am rather shocked. I expect Carolina to dominate the picks, but only eight of 21 staff went with the Panthers. Carolina is a double-digit favorite at home (the home opener) on extra rest (they played last Thursday), while their opponent, the 49ers, played the latest game possible in Week 1 (ended after 1AM Eastern on Monday night / Tuesday morning) and now they must head to the East Coast for a 1PM kickoff. What's not to like about Carolina this week? I'm very surprised that at least 50% of the staff didn't go in this direction. The most common pick after the Panthers was Baltimore (four) at Cleveland, which gets two strikes from my general Survivor rules - don't pick a road team and don't pick a divisional matchup. Granted these are the Browns, but still - anything can happen when a team visits another stadium. Detroit was the only other team selected more than once as they host Tennessee. Denver (vs. Indianapolis), Jacksonville (at San Diego), New England (home against Miami), Oakland (vs. Atlanta), Seattle (at Los Angeles) and the Jets (Thursday at Buffalo) were unique picks. Once again, I am surprised at the divisional selections here (Patriots, Jets, Seattle) and road teams (Jets, Jacksonville, Seattle), but I understand that some want to be contrarian. For me, this is a "free square week" and I am taking Carolina and moving on.
Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor / Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.
COMMENTARY
Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.
Jeff Pasquino: I decided to stick with my preseason plan and go with the Panthers at home against San Francisco in Week 2. I mentioned this above that I just love Carolina in this spot, and not just because I think Carolina is way better than the 49ers (they are). Carolina played last Thursdya, San Francisco finished early Tuesday AM by East Coast timing. Speaking of which, the 49ers have to fly across the country for a 1PM Eastern kickoff - which will impact San Francisco. I do not see a path to victory for the 49ers on the road here visiting Carolina in their home opener. Once again, I get the idea of being contrarian - and this week could be VERY chalky with many teams on Carolina - but I'm taking the free square and waiting to beat everyone else later in the season. Note - if you are in a GIANT pool and have multiple teams or a buy-back option, Detroit is a reasonable second choice and then hope the 49ers have some magic. I will be all in on Carolina.
The Pick: Carolina
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.