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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is adding a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.
Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two pre-season articles, first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:
The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.
This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).
THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY
Here are the picks for this week.
Staff Member | Record | Wk01 | Wk02 | Wk03 | Wk04 | Wk05 | Wk06 | Wk07 | Wk08 | Wk09 | Wk10 | Wk11 | Wk12 | Wk13 | Wk14 | Wk15 | Wk16 | Wk17 |
Justin Howe | 0-0 | BAL | ||||||||||||||||
Bear Heiser | 0-0 | GB | ||||||||||||||||
Aaron Rudnicki | 0-0 | HOU | ||||||||||||||||
Dave Larkin | 0-0 | HOU | ||||||||||||||||
Devin Knotts | 0-0 | HOU | ||||||||||||||||
Jason Wood | 0-0 | HOU | ||||||||||||||||
Justin Bonnema | 0-0 | HOU | ||||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | 0-0 | HOU | ||||||||||||||||
Chris Kuczynski | 0-0 | KC | ||||||||||||||||
Jeff Haseley | 0-0 | KC | ||||||||||||||||
Mark Wimer | 0-0 | KC | ||||||||||||||||
Matt Bitonti | 0-0 | KC | ||||||||||||||||
Andrew Garda | 0-0 | PHI | ||||||||||||||||
Alex Miglio | 0-0 | SEA | ||||||||||||||||
Andy Hicks | 0-0 | SEA | ||||||||||||||||
Ari Ingel | 0-0 | SEA | ||||||||||||||||
Chris Feery | 0-0 | SEA | ||||||||||||||||
Clayton Gray | 0-0 | SEA | ||||||||||||||||
John Mamula | 0-0 | SEA | ||||||||||||||||
William Grant | 0-0 | SEA | ||||||||||||||||
James Brimacombe | 0-0 | INDY |
DISCUSSION
Twenty-one staffers are in the pool (with one to still catch up with the rest of us), and it should be quite interesting right out of the gate. Week 1 has very tight spreads, with just one team favored by more than seven points (Seattle). They were clearly the safest pick and as a result, the most common one as seven out of 21 staffers went with the Seahawks expecting a home opener win. Houston came in next with six selections (including mine), followed by Kansas City with four. The choice of the Chiefs is an interesting one, as it is usually not advisable to take a divisional matchup, regardless of how good it looks, so we shall see how that plays out. All three teams are favored by six or more points, so on paper these picks all look solid. The rest of the staff all had unique picks with one choice each for Baltimore, Green Bay, Philadelphia and Indianapolis. Of the four, I think the Colts pick is the safest while depending on the Ravens or Eagles can be very tricky, even as home favorites. With seven teams in play for Week 1, things could be quite interesting come Tuesday in the standings.
Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor / Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.
COMMENTARY
Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.
Jeff Pasquino: I decided to stick with my preseason plan and go with the Texans at home against the Bears in Week 1. While Seattle also feels like a lock, I want to save them for later in the season. Here is a more detailed breakdown of Week 1 that I wrote in that article just a week ago and it still stands:
Teams to consider: Seattle, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Houston, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Arizona
Summary: This is probably the longest list, and for good reason. All 32 teams are in play here, so I have to consider not just good matchups for Week 1 but also who I want to save for later. As you will read, this is why I cannot use Green Bay, Kansas City or Arizona this week. I would have loved to use the Eagles at home against Cleveland, but trading away your starting quarterback a week before kickoff is a rather big red flag for me. Same for trading for your quarterback after your starter blows out his knee - so goodbye Philly and Minnesota. Indianapolis is a tough call because I see the game with the Lions as a shootout, and I can't trust my pick to a 37-34 type contest. What is left becomes the hard choice of using a big favorite at home in Seattle that could have a lot of good matchups down the road or using up the Texans against the Bears in their home opener. You cannot go wrong with either pick, but I decided to go with the second biggest favorite to save the Seahawks.
The Pick: Houston .
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.