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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | WASH | CIN | SD | OAK | ATL | TB | PHI | PIT | NO | INDY | JAX | SF | CHI | BUF | DEN | KC | ||||
Home Team: | NYG | BAL | MIN | CLE | DAL | HOU | NYJ | STL | CAR | TEN | NE | AZ | SEA | MIA | DET | GB | ||||
Favorite: | NYG | BAL | MIN | CLE | ATL | HOU | NYJ | PIT | CAR | INDY | NE | AZ | SEA | MIA | DEN | GB | ||||
Point Spread: | -3.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -1.5 | -6.5 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -3.5 | -4.5 | -13.5 | -6.5 | -14.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -6.5 | ||||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | YtD | Win% | |||||||||||||||
Clayton Gray | NYG | CIN | MIN | OAK | ATL | HOU | NYJ | PIT | CAR | TEN | NE | AZ | SEA | BUF | DET | GB | 51 | 14 | 27 | 56.2% |
Matt Bitonti | NYG | CIN | MIN | CLE | ATL | TB | PHI | PIT | CAR | INDY | NE | AZ | SEA | BUF | DEN | GB | 46 | 13 | 26 | 54.1% |
Andy Hicks | NYG | CIN | MIN | OAK | DAL | TB | PHI | PIT | CAR | INDY | JAX | AZ | SEA | BUF | DEN | GB | 41 | 12 | 26 | 54.1% |
Danny Tuccitto | WASH | BAL | MIN | OAK | ATL | TB | NYJ | PIT | CAR | TEN | NE | AZ | SEA | BUF | DEN | GB | 49 | 12 | 27 | 56.2% |
Jeff Pasquino | NYG | BAL | MIN | OAK | ATL | HOU | PHI | PIT | NO | INDY | JAX | AZ | SEA | MIA | DEN | GB | 47 | 11 | 25 | 52.0% |
Bear Heiser | WASH | CIN | SD | CLE | ATL | HOU | PHI | PIT | NO | TEN | JAX | AZ | SEA | BUF | DEN | GB | 44 | 11 | 25 | 52.0% |
William Grant | NYG | CIN | SD | OAK | DAL | TB | NYJ | PIT | CAR | INDY | NE | AZ | SEA | BUF | DEN | GB | 51 | 11 | 29 | 60.4% |
Justin Bonnema | NYG | CIN | SD | CLE | ATL | TB | NYJ | PIT | NO | INDY | NE | AZ | SEA | BUF | DEN | GB | 52 | 10 | 28 | 58.3% |
Aaron Rudnicki | WASH | CIN | SD | OAK | ATL | TB | PHI | PIT | CAR | INDY | NE | AZ | CHI | BUF | DET | KC | 46 | 9 | 23 | 47.9% |
Alessandro Miglio | NYG | BAL | MIN | CLE | ATL | TB | PHI | PIT | CAR | TEN | JAX | AZ | CHI | MIA | DEN | KC | 51 | 9 | 26 | 54.1% |
Andrew Garda | NYG | CIN | MIN | CLE | ATL | HOU | NYJ | STL | CAR | INDY | JAX | AZ | CHI | MIA | DEN | GB | 60 | 9 | 24 | 50.0% |
Jason Wood | WASH | BAL | MIN | OAK | ATL | HOU | PHI | PIT | CAR | INDY | JAX | AZ | CHI | MIA | DEN | KC | 49 | 9 | 27 | 56.2% |
Jeff Haseley | NYG | BAL | SD | CLE | DAL | HOU | PHI | PIT | CAR | INDY | NE | SF | SEA | BUF | DET | GB | 49 | 9 | 27 | 56.2% |
Chris Feery | WASH | CIN | SD | OAK | DAL | TB | NYJ | PIT | CAR | INDY | NE | AZ | CHI | BUF | DEN | KC | 45 | 8 | 22 | 45.8% |
Dan Hindery | WASH | CIN | MIN | OAK | ATL | HOU | PHI | STL | CAR | INDY | JAX | SF | CHI | MIA | DEN | KC | 43 | 8 | 22 | 45.8% |
James Brimacombe | NYG | BAL | MIN | CLE | ATL | TB | PHI | PIT | CAR | INDY | JAX | SF | SEA | MIA | DEN | KC | 52 | 8 | 22 | 45.8% |
Mark Wimer | NYG | CIN | SD | CLE | DAL | TB | NYJ | PIT | CAR | INDY | NE | AZ | CHI | MIA | DEN | GB | 41 | 8 | 27 | 56.2% |
Phil Alexander | WASH | BAL | MIN | CLE | ATL | HOU | NYJ | STL | CAR | INDY | JAX | AZ | SEA | MIA | DEN | GB | 56 | 8 | 26 | 54.1% |
Steve Holloway | WASH | BAL | MIN | OAK | DAL | TB | NYJ | PIT | CAR | INDY | JAX | AZ | CHI | BUF | DEN | GB | 52 | 8 | 24 | 50.0% |
Dave Larkin | WASH | BAL | MIN | CLE | ATL | TB | NYJ | PIT | CAR | INDY | NE | AZ | CHI | MIA | DET | GB | 48 | 7 | 25 | 52.0% |
John Lee | WASH | BAL | MIN | CLE | DAL | HOU | NYJ | PIT | CAR | INDY | NE | AZ | CHI | BUF | DET | KC | 50 | 7 | 24 | 50.0% |
Maurile Tremblay | WASH | CIN | SD | OAK | DAL | TB | NYJ | PIT | CAR | TEN | JAX | SF | CHI | BUF | DET | KC | 44 | 6 | 23 | 47.9% |
Justin Howe | WASH | BAL | MIN | OAK | DAL | TB | NYJ | STL | CAR | TEN | JAX | SF | CHI | BUF | DET | KC | 48 | 5 | 25 | 52.0% |
The entire group had a very strong performance in Week 3, getting over 57% correct (212-156), topped by an outstanding week by Clayton Gray with 14 of 16 games right. Only the Eagles (over the Jets) and the Broncos (over Detroit) kept him from a perfect week, but Clayton clearly would have raked it in if he was in the Sportsbooks in Las Vegas last weekend. Lots of strong showings across the board for Week 3, with three staff members posting either 13 (Matt Bitonti) or 12 (Andy Hicks, Danny Tucitto) correct calls that probably would have won in most other weeks. Four more handicappers had 10 or more right and 19 of 23 in the group had at least eight correct picks for the week. That great performanced washed away most of the grime from Week 2 and brought the staff's record up to 580-524, or 56 picks over .500, a 52.5% winning percentage. Considering that 52.3% is the breakeven against the house in Las Vegas, I would say that is a strong start for 2015. Let's see how Week 4 goes, shall we?
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | BAL | NYJ | JAX | HOU | KC | NYG | OAK | PHI | CAR | CLE | MIN | GB | STL | DAL | DET | |
Home Team: | PIT | MIA | INDY | ATL | CIN | BUF | CHI | WASH | TB | SD | DEN | SF | AZ | NO | SEA | |
Favorite: | BAL | NYJ | INDY | ATL | CIN | BUF | OAK | PHI | CAR | SD | DEN | GB | AZ | NO | SEA | |
Point Spread: | -2.5 | -2.5 | -9.5 | -6.5 | -3.5 | -6.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -7.5 | -6.5 | -9.5 | -6.5 | -4.5 | -9.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | ||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | BAL | NYJ | JAX | HOU | ATL | NYG | OAK | PHI | CAR | SD | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 44 |
Aaron Rudnicki | PIT | MIA | INDY | HOU | CIN | NYG | OAK | PHI | TB | SD | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 46 |
Alessandro Miglio | BAL | NYJ | JAX | HOU | CIN | NYG | OAK | PHI | CAR | CLE | DEN | SF | STL | NO | SEA | 43 |
Andrew Garda | BAL | NYJ | JAX | ATL | CIN | BUF | OAK | PHI | CAR | SD | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 45 |
Andy Hicks | BAL | MIA | JAX | HOU | CIN | NYG | OAK | PHI | CAR | SD | MIN | GB | STL | NO | SEA | 41 |
Bear Heiser | PIT | NYJ | INDY | ATL | CIN | NYG | OAK | PHI | CAR | SD | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 42 |
Chris Feery | PIT | NYJ | JAX | ATL | CIN | NYG | OAK | WASH | TB | CLE | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 42 |
Clayton Gray | PIT | MIA | JAX | ATL | CIN | BUF | OAK | PHI | CAR | CLE | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 47 |
Dan Hindery | PIT | MIA | JAX | HOU | CIN | NYG | OAK | PHI | TB | CLE | DEN | SF | STL | DAL | SEA | 33 |
Danny Tuccitto | PIT | NYJ | INDY | ATL | KC | BUF | OAK | WASH | TB | CLE | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 49 |
Dave Larkin | BAL | MIA | JAX | ATL | CIN | NYG | OAK | WASH | TB | SD | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 38 |
James Brimacombe | PIT | MIA | INDY | ATL | KC | BUF | OAK | PHI | CAR | SD | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 44 |
Jason Wood | PIT | MIA | JAX | ATL | CIN | NYG | CHI | WASH | CAR | SD | MIN | GB | AZ | NO | SEA | 45 |
Jeff Haseley | PIT | NYJ | INDY | HOU | CIN | BUF | OAK | PHI | CAR | SD | DEN | SF | AZ | DAL | SEA | 41 |
John Lee | BAL | NYJ | INDY | HOU | KC | NYG | CHI | WASH | CAR | SD | DEN | GB | AZ | NO | SEA | 44 |
Justin Bonnema | BAL | MIA | INDY | ATL | KC | NYG | OAK | PHI | CAR | SD | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 48 |
Justin Howe | PIT | NYJ | INDY | HOU | KC | NYG | OAK | WASH | TB | CLE | MIN | GB | STL | DAL | DET | 41 |
Mark Wimer | PIT | NYJ | INDY | ATL | CIN | BUF | OAK | WASH | CAR | CLE | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 38 |
Matt Bitonti | BAL | NYJ | INDY | ATL | CIN | NYG | OAK | PHI | CAR | CLE | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 42 |
Maurile Tremblay | PIT | MIA | JAX | HOU | CIN | NYG | CHI | WASH | TB | CLE | MIN | SF | STL | DAL | DET | 42 |
Phil Alexander | BAL | MIA | JAX | ATL | KC | NYG | OAK | WASH | CAR | SD | DEN | SF | AZ | DAL | SEA | 30 |
Steve Holloway | PIT | NYJ | INDY | ATL | CIN | BUF | OAK | PHI | CAR | SD | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 38 |
William Grant | BAL | NYJ | JAX | ATL | CIN | BUF | OAK | PHI | CAR | SD | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 41 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
With two weeks now behind us, you would think that there would be some sort of better understanding of who are the dominant teams – but you would never know it from looking at the 23 sets of picks this week. No team was picked unanimously, and the closes was Seattle (21 of 23) at home against Detroit. Oakland (20) was second, and that might backfire on the group as Jay Cutler could be back for Sunday (hence the drawback of making picks Wednesday night) - so be careful with this one. Four other teams had either 19 (Denver, Dallas) or 18 (Green Bay, Arizona) choices, so some majority picks are definitely here for Week 4. Las Vegas would love these sets of picks with three games nearly dead even (Baltimore / Pittsburgh, Jets / Dolphins and Colts / Jaguars) as the choices were split almost exactly in half for both contests. It should be very interesting to see how it plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
It's still quite early in the season, and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 52.3% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.