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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (23) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | LAR | MIA | IND | PIT | JAC | TEN | CLE | PHI | DET | GB | NO | SF | OAK | NE | TB | CAR | |||
Home Team: | SEA | NYJ | MIN | CIN | HOU | KC | BUF | BAL | NYG | CHI | ARI | ATL | SD | DEN | DAL | WAS | |||
Favorite: | SEA | MIA | MIN | PIT | HOU | KC | BUF | BAL | NYG | GB | ARI | ATL | OAK | NE | DAL | WAS | |||
Point Spread: | -14.5 | -2.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -10.5 | -5.5 | -4.5 | -6.5 | -2.5 | -13.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -7.5 | -4.5 | |||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | YtD | |||||||||||||||
Bear Heiser | SEA | MIA | IND | PIT | JAC | KC | BUF | PHI | NYG | CHI | NO | ATL | OAK | NE | TB | WAS | 36 | 14 | 120 |
Aaron Rudnicki | SEA | MIA | IND | PIT | JAC | TEN | BUF | BAL | NYG | GB | ARI | ATL | OAK | NE | TB | WAS | 42 | 12 | 120 |
Chris Feery | SEA | NYJ | IND | PIT | JAC | TEN | BUF | BAL | DET | GB | NO | ATL | OAK | NE | DAL | CAR | 48 | 11 | 110 |
James Brimacombe | SEA | MIA | IND | PIT | JAC | TEN | BUF | PHI | DET | GB | ARI | ATL | SD | DEN | TB | CAR | 48 | 11 | 123 |
Devin Knotts | LAR | MIA | IND | PIT | JAC | TEN | BUF | BAL | DET | GB | ARI | ATL | SD | NE | TB | WAS | 47 | 9 | 117 |
John Mamula | LAR | MIA | IND | PIT | JAC | KC | BUF | BAL | DET | GB | ARI | ATL | OAK | NE | TB | WAS | 43 | 9 | 113 |
Keith Roberts | LAR | NYJ | IND | CIN | JAC | TEN | BUF | BAL | NYG | CHI | ARI | ATL | SD | NE | TB | WAS | 52 | 9 | 109 |
Matt Bitonti | SEA | NYJ | MIN | PIT | HOU | KC | CLE | PHI | NYG | CHI | ARI | ATL | OAK | NE | TB | WAS | 52 | 9 | 122 |
Andrew Garda | SEA | MIA | MIN | PIT | HOU | KC | CLE | BAL | NYG | GB | ARI | ATL | OAK | NE | TB | WAS | 40 | 8 | 112 |
Clayton Gray | SEA | MIA | MIN | PIT | HOU | KC | CLE | BAL | DET | GB | NO | ATL | OAK | NE | TB | WAS | 58 | 8 | 113 |
Dave Larkin | SEA | MIA | IND | CIN | HOU | TEN | BUF | BAL | DET | GB | ARI | ATL | SD | DEN | TB | CAR | 48 | 8 | 110 |
Jason Wood | LAR | NYJ | MIN | PIT | HOU | TEN | CLE | PHI | NYG | GB | NO | SF | OAK | NE | TB | WAS | 43 | 8 | 119 |
Justin Bonnema | SEA | NYJ | IND | PIT | HOU | KC | CLE | BAL | NYG | GB | ARI | ATL | SD | NE | TB | CAR | 48 | 8 | 112 |
Phil Alexander | SEA | MIA | IND | CIN | JAC | KC | CLE | BAL | NYG | GB | ARI | SF | OAK | DEN | TB | CAR | 53 | 8 | 121 |
William Grant | SEA | NYJ | MIN | PIT | HOU | KC | BUF | BAL | DET | GB | ARI | ATL | OAK | NE | TB | WAS | 51 | 7 | 102 |
Jeff Pasquino | SEA | MIA | MIN | PIT | HOU | KC | BUF | BAL | DET | GB | ARI | ATL | SD | NE | DAL | WAS | 51 | 6 | 110 |
Andy Hicks | LAR | NYJ | IND | CIN | JAC | TEN | CLE | BAL | DET | GB | ARI | ATL | OAK | DEN | TB | WAS | 61 | 6 | 110 |
Chris Kuczynski | LAR | MIA | MIN | PIT | HOU | KC | CLE | BAL | DET | GB | ARI | ATL | OAK | NE | TB | WAS | 44 | 6 | 109 |
Danny Tuccitto | LAR | MIA | IND | CIN | HOU | KC | CLE | BAL | DET | GB | ARI | ATL | OAK | DEN | TB | CAR | 49 | 6 | 122 |
Jeff Haseley | LAR | MIA | MIN | CIN | HOU | KC | BUF | BAL | DET | GB | ARI | ATL | OAK | DEN | TB | CAR | 46 | 6 | 98 |
Justin Howe | SEA | MIA | MIN | CIN | HOU | KC | CLE | BAL | DET | GB | ARI | ATL | OAK | DEN | TB | CAR | 51 | 6 | 119 |
Mark Wimer | SEA | MIA | MIN | PIT | HOU | KC | CLE | BAL | DET | GB | NO | ATL | OAK | DEN | DAL | WAS | 45 | 6 | 107 |
Alessandro Miglio | LAR | NYJ | MIN | PIT | HOU | KC | CLE | BAL | DET | GB | ARI | SF | OAK | NE | TB | WAS | 48 | 4 | 102 |
This week Bear Heiser outpaced the group with a strong 14-2 week, just tripping over The Chiefs not covering and Washington's poor Monday night showing. Aaron Rudnicki came in second with a very good 12-4 record, while Chris Feery and James Brimacombe finished one back in a third place tie at 11-5. The group overall was over .500 again (185-183, 50.3%) and the staff has a similar season-long record at 50.5% (2,600-2,552). The overall standings race is very tight as well, with James Brimacombe (123 wins) just one ahead of both Danny Tuccitto and Matt Bitonti, while Phil Alexander is just two off the lead. This will be an exciting finish over the last two weeks of the regular season.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | NYG | MIA | WAS | NYJ | TEN | ATL | SD | MIN | IND | SF | TB | ARI | CIN | BAL | DEN | DET | |
Home Team: | PHI | BUF | CHI | NE | JAC | CAR | CLE | GB | OAK | LAR | NO | SEA | HOU | PIT | KC | DAL | |
Favorite: | NYG | BUF | WAS | NE | TEN | ATL | SD | GB | OAK | LAR | NO | SEA | HOU | PIT | KC | DAL | |
Point Spread: | -2.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -16.5 | -4.5 | -2.5 | -6.5 | -6.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -8.5 | -2.5 | -5.5 | -4.5 | -7.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | |||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | PHI | BUF | WAS | NE | TEN | ATL | SD | GB | OAK | SF | TB | SEA | HOU | PIT | KC | DET | 47 |
Alessandro Miglio | NYG | MIA | WAS | NYJ | TEN | ATL | CLE | MIN | OAK | LAR | TB | ARI | HOU | BAL | KC | DET | 48 |
Andrew Garda | NYG | MIA | WAS | NE | TEN | ATL | SD | GB | OAK | LAR | TB | SEA | CIN | PIT | KC | DAL | 60 |
Andy Hicks | PHI | MIA | WAS | NE | JAC | CAR | CLE | GB | OAK | LAR | TB | ARI | HOU | BAL | KC | DET | 39 |
Bear Heiser | NYG | BUF | CHI | NE | TEN | CAR | SD | GB | IND | SF | NO | ARI | CIN | PIT | KC | DET | 36 |
Chris Feery | NYG | MIA | WAS | NE | TEN | ATL | CLE | GB | OAK | SF | NO | SEA | CIN | BAL | KC | DET | 42 |
Chris Kuczynski | NYG | BUF | WAS | NYJ | TEN | ATL | SD | GB | OAK | LAR | NO | SEA | CIN | BAL | KC | DET | 56 |
Clayton Gray | NYG | MIA | WAS | NYJ | TEN | CAR | SD | GB | OAK | LAR | TB | SEA | HOU | BAL | KC | DET | 41 |
Danny Tuccitto | NYG | MIA | CHI | NE | JAC | ATL | SD | GB | IND | SF | TB | SEA | HOU | PIT | DEN | DET | 49 |
Dave Larkin | NYG | MIA | CHI | NYJ | TEN | CAR | SD | GB | OAK | LAR | TB | SEA | CIN | BAL | DEN | DET | 49 |
Devin Knotts | PHI | MIA | WAS | NE | TEN | ATL | CLE | GB | IND | SF | TB | ARI | CIN | PIT | DEN | DAL | 44 |
James Brimacombe | PHI | MIA | WAS | NE | TEN | CAR | SD | GB | IND | SF | TB | SEA | HOU | BAL | DEN | DET | 50 |
Jason Wood | NYG | MIA | WAS | NYJ | TEN | CAR | CLE | GB | IND | SF | TB | SEA | CIN | BAL | KC | DAL | 51 |
Jeff Haseley | NYG | BUF | WAS | NE | TEN | CAR | SD | GB | OAK | LAR | TB | ARI | HOU | PIT | KC | DET | 46 |
John Mamula | NYG | BUF | CHI | NE | TEN | ATL | SD | MIN | OAK | SF | NO | ARI | HOU | PIT | KC | DET | 42 |
Justin Bonnema | NYG | BUF | CHI | NYJ | JAC | ATL | CLE | GB | IND | SF | NO | SEA | HOU | PIT | DEN | DET | 44 |
Justin Howe | NYG | BUF | CHI | NYJ | TEN | ATL | SD | GB | OAK | LAR | TB | ARI | CIN | BAL | DEN | DET | 43 |
Keith Roberts | PHI | MIA | CHI | NYJ | TEN | ATL | SD | GB | OAK | SF | NO | ARI | CIN | PIT | KC | DET | 45 |
Mark Wimer | NYG | MIA | WAS | NYJ | TEN | ATL | SD | GB | OAK | LAR | NO | SEA | HOU | PIT | KC | DAL | 45 |
Matt Bitonti | NYG | MIA | WAS | NYJ | TEN | ATL | SD | GB | OAK | LAR | TB | ARI | HOU | BAL | DEN | DET | 46 |
Phil Alexander | NYG | MIA | WAS | NE | TEN | ATL | CLE | GB | IND | SF | TB | SEA | CIN | BAL | KC | DET | 40 |
William Grant | NYG | BUF | CHI | NE | TEN | ATL | SD | GB | OAK | LAR | TB | ARI | CIN | PIT | KC | DET | 45 |
Aaron Rudnicki |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
We have only two weeks to go, but we still have a lot of disparity in the selections here in Week 16. All but one set of picks are in, so with 22 selections we have only four big majority picks, starting with Green Bay (20) at home against Minnesota. Tennessee is the top road favorite with 19 picks out of 22 for the Titans to win by more than five at Jacksonville. Detroit is a road underdog, but many on the staff (18) think that this is a trap game for Dallas, and I tend to agree. The Giants start the week in Philadelphia, and most (17) picks are siding with the Giants to cover the field goal margin over the Eagles. Five teams are in a logjam at 15 selections, including Atlanta (at Carolina), San Diego (at Cleveland), Tampa Bay (an underdog at New Orleans), Oakland (hosting the Colts) and Kansas City (hosting Denver). Washington and Miami are just off that pace with 14 of 22 selections. Five games are in the close call realm, with New England a huge favorite at home against the Jets one of the tougher picks with a 16.5-point spread. The other even contests appear to be Seattle-Arizona, Cincinnati-Houston, Baltimore-Pittsburgh and San Francisco-Los Angeles. Once again this should be an interesting week to see how it all plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
We are getting close to the end of the season, and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.