Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (22) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored in the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from this week.
Road Team: | NO | MIN | CHI | GB | SF | DAL | DET | OAK | IND | NYJ | TEN | WAS | SEA | PHI | BAL | NE | |||
Home Team: | ATL | CAR | CIN | CLE | HOU | NYG | TB | KC | BUF | DEN | ARI | LAC | JAC | LAR | PIT | MIA | |||
Favorite: | NO | MIN | CIN | GB | HOU | DAL | TB | KC | BUF | NYJ | TEN | LAC | JAC | LAR | PIT | NE | |||
Point Spread: | -1.5 | -2.5 | -6.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -4.5 | -1.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -0.5 | -2.5 | -6.5 | -3.5 | -1.5 | -5.5 | -11.5 | |||
Staffer | Last Week's Picks | MNF | Last | Year to | |||||||||||||||
Tot Pts | Week | Date | |||||||||||||||||
Danny Tuccitto | ATL | CAR | CHI | GB | HOU | NYG | DET | KC | BUF | DEN | ARI | WAS | SEA | PHI | BAL | MIA | 49 | 12 | 116 |
James Brimacombe | NO | CAR | CIN | GB | SF | DAL | DET | OAK | BUF | DEN | ARI | LAC | JAC | PHI | PIT | NE | 46 | 11 | 112 |
Jeff Haseley | ATL | MIN | CHI | GB | SF | DAL | DET | KC | BUF | NYJ | TEN | LAC | SEA | PHI | BAL | NE | 47 | 11 | 104 |
Alessandro Miglio | ATL | CAR | CHI | GB | HOU | DAL | TB | KC | BUF | NYJ | ARI | WAS | SEA | LAR | BAL | MIA | 53 | 10 | 107 |
Mark Wimer | ATL | MIN | CHI | GB | HOU | DAL | DET | KC | BUF | NYJ | ARI | WAS | JAC | LAR | BAL | NE | 42 | 10 | 116 |
William Grant | ATL | MIN | CHI | GB | HOU | DAL | DET | KC | IND | DEN | TEN | LAC | SEA | PHI | BAL | NE | 46 | 10 | 109 |
Andrew Garda | NO | MIN | CHI | GB | HOU | DAL | TB | KC | BUF | NYJ | TEN | LAC | JAC | PHI | PIT | MIA | 50 | 9 | 109 |
Devin Knotts | ATL | CAR | CHI | CLE | SF | NYG | DET | OAK | IND | DEN | ARI | WAS | JAC | LAR | BAL | NE | 51 | 9 | 109 |
Jason Wood | NO | CAR | CHI | GB | SF | DAL | TB | KC | BUF | NYJ | TEN | LAC | SEA | PHI | PIT | NE | 51 | 9 | 108 |
Keith Roberts | NO | MIN | CHI | CLE | SF | DAL | DET | KC | BUF | NYJ | TEN | LAC | SEA | LAR | BAL | MIA | 46 | 9 | 103 |
Chris Feery | NO | MIN | CHI | GB | SF | NYG | DET | OAK | BUF | NYJ | TEN | LAC | SEA | PHI | BAL | NE | 49 | 8 | 100 |
John Mamula | NO | MIN | CIN | GB | SF | NYG | DET | KC | BUF | NYJ | TEN | LAC | JAC | PHI | PIT | NE | 47 | 8 | 110 |
Bear Heiser | ATL | CAR | CIN | GB | HOU | DAL | DET | KC | BUF | NYJ | TEN | WAS | SEA | LAR | PIT | NE | 48 | 7 | 112 |
Dave Larkin | NO | CAR | CIN | CLE | SF | NYG | TB | KC | IND | NYJ | ARI | WAS | SEA | PHI | BAL | MIA | 48 | 7 | 113 |
Justin Howe | NO | CAR | CHI | CLE | HOU | NYG | DET | KC | IND | NYJ | TEN | WAS | SEA | PHI | BAL | MIA | 47 | 7 | 93 |
Phil Alexander | NO | CAR | CIN | CLE | SF | DAL | DET | OAK | BUF | DEN | TEN | WAS | SEA | PHI | PIT | NE | 46 | 7 | 113 |
St Holloway | NO | MIN | CIN | GB | HOU | NYG | DET | KC | BUF | NYJ | ARI | WAS | SEA | LAR | PIT | MIA | 44 | 7 | 105 |
Jeff Pasquino | NO | MIN | CHI | CLE | HOU | NYG | DET | OAK | BUF | NYJ | ARI | LAC | SEA | PHI | PIT | NE | 48 | 6 | 107 |
Andy Hicks | ATL | CAR | CIN | CLE | SF | NYG | TB | OAK | IND | NYJ | ARI | WAS | SEA | LAR | BAL | MIA | 49 | 6 | 95 |
Matt Bitonti | NO | MIN | CIN | GB | SF | DAL | TB | OAK | IND | NYJ | TEN | WAS | JAC | LAR | BAL | MIA | 46 | 6 | 118 |
Justin Bonnema | NO | MIN | CIN | CLE | HOU | DAL | DET | KC | BUF | NYJ | TEN | LAC | SEA | LAR | PIT | NE | 48 | 5 | 107 |
Aaron Rudnicki | NO | MIN | CIN | CLE | SF | DAL | DET | OAK | IND | NYJ | TEN | WAS | SEA | LAR | BAL | NE | 44 | 4 | 108 |
Six staff members had double-digit wins in Week 14, led by Danny Tuccitto with a 12-4 record. James Brimacombe and Jeff Haseley were one game back at 11-5, helping the staff overall to a winning week once again. If it were not for a few upsets (New England, Jacksonville, Denver) then the staff would have had a great week, but a 178-174 record for Week 14 does push the group to 172 games above .500 on the year (2,374-2,202, 51.9%). The season is starting to wind down and we have some big favorites on the board, so Week 15 could get interesting. Lets' take a look at what the staff decided on for Week 15.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week.
Road Team: | DEN | CHI | LAC | NYJ | HOU | PHI | MIA | BAL | CIN | ARI | GB | LAR | NE | TEN | DAL | ATL | |
Home Team: | IND | DET | KC | NO | JAC | NYG | BUF | CLE | MIN | WAS | CAR | SEA | PIT | SF | OAK | TB | |
Favorite: | DEN | DET | LAC | NO | JAC | PHI | BUF | BAL | MIN | WAS | CAR | SEA | NE | SF | DAL | ATL | |
Point Spread: | -2.5 | -5.5 | -1.5 | -15.5 | -11.5 | -7.5 | -3.5 | -6.5 | -10.5 | -4.5 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -6.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | |||||||||||||||
Tot Pts | |||||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | DEN | DET | KC | NO | JAC | PHI | MIA | CLE | MIN | ARI | GB | SEA | NE | TEN | DAL | ATL | 48 |
Aaron Rudnicki | DEN | DET | LAC | NYJ | JAC | NYG | MIA | BAL | CIN | ARI | CAR | LAR | NE | TEN | DAL | ATL | 48 |
Alessandro Miglio | DEN | CHI | KC | NYJ | HOU | NYG | MIA | CLE | CIN | WAS | CAR | SEA | PIT | SF | DAL | TB | 54 |
Andrew Garda | DEN | DET | LAC | NO | JAC | NYG | BUF | BAL | MIN | WAS | CAR | SEA | NE | TEN | DAL | ATL | 45 |
Andy Hicks | IND | CHI | KC | NYJ | HOU | NYG | BUF | CLE | CIN | ARI | CAR | SEA | PIT | SF | OAK | TB | 71 |
Bear Heiser | DEN | DET | KC | NO | HOU | NYG | BUF | BAL | MIN | WAS | CAR | LAR | PIT | SF | DAL | ATL | 52 |
Chris Feery | IND | DET | LAC | NYJ | HOU | NYG | BUF | CLE | MIN | ARI | GB | LAR | NE | SF | DAL | TB | 45 |
Danny Tuccitto | IND | DET | KC | NYJ | HOU | NYG | MIA | BAL | MIN | WAS | GB | SEA | PIT | TEN | OAK | TB | 49 |
Dave Larkin | DEN | CHI | LAC | NO | HOU | PHI | MIA | BAL | CIN | ARI | CAR | SEA | NE | SF | DAL | TB | 41 |
Devin Knotts | IND | DET | KC | NYJ | HOU | PHI | BUF | CLE | CIN | WAS | GB | LAR | PIT | SF | OAK | TB | 44 |
James Brimacombe | DEN | DET | LAC | NO | JAC | PHI | MIA | BAL | MIN | ARI | GB | LAR | PIT | SF | OAK | ATL | 47 |
Jason Wood | DEN | DET | LAC | NYJ | HOU | NYG | MIA | BAL | MIN | ARI | GB | LAR | PIT | SF | DAL | ATL | 43 |
Jeff Haseley | DEN | DET | KC | NO | HOU | PHI | MIA | CLE | MIN | WAS | CAR | SEA | PIT | SF | DAL | TB | 46 |
John Mamula | IND | DET | LAC | NO | HOU | NYG | BUF | BAL | MIN | WAS | GB | SEA | NE | SF | DAL | ATL | 55 |
Justin Bonnema | DEN | DET | KC | NO | JAC | NYG | BUF | BAL | MIN | WAS | CAR | SEA | PIT | TEN | DAL | ATL | 48 |
Justin Howe | DEN | DET | KC | NYJ | HOU | PHI | MIA | CLE | MIN | ARI | CAR | SEA | NE | TEN | DAL | ATL | 49 |
Keith Roberts | DEN | CHI | LAC | NO | HOU | PHI | MIA | BAL | MIN | WAS | GB | LAR | PIT | TEN | DAL | TB | 49 |
Mark Wimer | DEN | CHI | KC | NO | JAC | PHI | BUF | BAL | MIN | WAS | GB | LAR | PIT | TEN | OAK | ATL | 63 |
Matt Bitonti | IND | CHI | KC | NO | JAC | NYG | MIA | BAL | MIN | WAS | CAR | LAR | NE | SF | DAL | ATL | 50 |
Phil Alexander | IND | CHI | KC | NYJ | HOU | NYG | BUF | BAL | MIN | ARI | CAR | SEA | NE | SF | DAL | TB | 50 |
St Holloway | DEN | CHI | LAC | NYJ | HOU | PHI | MIA | BAL | CIN | ARI | GB | LAR | NE | TEN | DAL | ATL | 39 |
William Grant | DEN | CHI | KC | NYJ | JAC | NYG | BUF | BAL | MIN | WAS | CAR | SEA | PIT | SF | DAL | ATL | 49 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
All 22 sets of picks are in this morning, and only five team had 14 or more votes this week. Dallas (17) led the way as a road favorite in Oakland, which makes sense as the Cowboys are in a must win situation. Minnesota (16) is our first big home favorite, and most of the staff expects the Vikings to handle the Bengals rather easily. Denver (15) and Baltimore (15) come in next, although the Ravens should face a Browns team pushing for their first win. The Broncos are also a tougher call as a road team on a short week, facing the Colts in Indianapolis on Thursday. Houston (14) rounds out our top six picks as a group, with the Texans visiting Jacksonville as a big underdog. The rest of the matchups were either split 11-11 (Saints/Jets), 12-10 or 13-9. Five teams had 13 votes (Lions, Chiefs, Giants, Titans and Falcons) while five more received 12 (Miami, Washington, Carolina, Seattle and Pittsburgh). Overall seven road teams were majority picks while five underdogs (Houston, Kansas City, Miami, Pittsburgh and the Giants) were top choices. Once again, Week 15 has all the makings of yet another very interesting week in the NFL and for the staff picks.
ODDS AND ENDS
The season is nearly over - just three weeks to go - and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com