Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (23) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | OAK | CHI | ARI | SD | CIN | DEN | HOU | WAS | PIT | MIN | NYJ | ATL | SEA | NO | DAL | BAL | |||
Home Team: | KC | DET | MIA | CAR | CLE | TEN | IND | PHI | BUF | JAC | SF | LAR | GB | TB | NYG | NE | |||
Favorite: | KC | DET | MIA | CAR | CIN | TEN | IND | WAS | PIT | MIN | SF | ATL | SEA | TB | DAL | NE | |||
Point Spread: | -3.5 | -7.5 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -5.5 | -1.5 | -6.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -3.5 | -1.5 | -5.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -7.5 | |||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | YtD | |||||||||||||||
Matt Bitonti | OAK | DET | MIA | CAR | CIN | TEN | HOU | WAS | PIT | MIN | NYJ | ATL | GB | TB | NYG | BAL | 52 | 14 | 113 |
Aaron Rudnicki | OAK | DET | ARI | CAR | CIN | TEN | IND | WAS | PIT | MIN | NYJ | ATL | GB | TB | DAL | BAL | 42 | 11 | 108 |
Alessandro Miglio | KC | CHI | MIA | CAR | CIN | DEN | IND | PHI | PIT | MIN | SF | LAR | GB | TB | DAL | BAL | 47 | 10 | 98 |
Danny Tuccitto | OAK | CHI | MIA | CAR | CIN | TEN | IND | WAS | PIT | JAC | SF | ATL | SEA | TB | DAL | BAL | 49 | 10 | 116 |
Jason Wood | OAK | DET | MIA | SD | CIN | TEN | IND | WAS | PIT | MIN | NYJ | ATL | SEA | TB | NYG | NE | 46 | 10 | 111 |
John Mamula | OAK | CHI | ARI | CAR | CIN | DEN | HOU | WAS | PIT | MIN | SF | ATL | SEA | TB | DAL | BAL | 45 | 10 | 104 |
Bear Heiser | KC | DET | ARI | SD | CIN | TEN | IND | WAS | PIT | MIN | NYJ | ATL | SEA | TB | DAL | NE | 42 | 9 | 106 |
Chris Feery | OAK | DET | ARI | SD | CIN | TEN | IND | WAS | PIT | MIN | NYJ | ATL | GB | NO | NYG | NE | 45 | 9 | 99 |
Clayton Gray | OAK | DET | MIA | SD | CIN | DEN | HOU | WAS | BUF | MIN | SF | ATL | GB | TB | DAL | BAL | 51 | 9 | 105 |
Devin Knotts | OAK | DET | ARI | CAR | CIN | TEN | IND | WAS | PIT | JAC | SF | ATL | GB | TB | NYG | NE | 46 | 9 | 108 |
Justin Bonnema | OAK | CHI | ARI | CAR | CIN | DEN | IND | WAS | PIT | JAC | SF | ATL | GB | TB | DAL | BAL | 45 | 9 | 104 |
Phil Alexander | OAK | CHI | MIA | SD | CIN | DEN | IND | WAS | PIT | JAC | SF | ATL | GB | NO | NYG | BAL | 43 | 9 | 113 |
Jeff Pasquino | KC | DET | ARI | SD | CIN | TEN | IND | PHI | PIT | MIN | SF | ATL | GB | TB | DAL | NE | 50 | 8 | 104 |
Andrew Garda | KC | DET | ARI | SD | CIN | DEN | IND | WAS | PIT | MIN | SF | ATL | GB | TB | DAL | NE | 70 | 8 | 104 |
Andy Hicks | KC | DET | MIA | CAR | CLE | TEN | IND | PHI | BUF | JAC | SF | LAR | GB | TB | NYG | BAL | 45 | 8 | 104 |
Chris Kuczynski | OAK | DET | ARI | CAR | CIN | DEN | HOU | WAS | PIT | MIN | NYJ | ATL | SEA | NO | DAL | NE | 50 | 8 | 103 |
Dave Larkin | KC | DET | MIA | CAR | CIN | DEN | HOU | WAS | PIT | JAC | SF | LAR | SEA | NO | DAL | BAL | 45 | 8 | 102 |
James Brimacombe | OAK | DET | ARI | CAR | CIN | DEN | IND | PHI | PIT | MIN | NYJ | ATL | GB | NO | NYG | NE | 47 | 8 | 112 |
Jeff Haseley | KC | DET | MIA | CAR | CIN | DEN | HOU | PHI | BUF | MIN | NYJ | LAR | SEA | TB | DAL | NE | 44 | 8 | 92 |
Justin Howe | OAK | DET | ARI | SD | CIN | DEN | HOU | WAS | PIT | MIN | SF | ATL | SEA | TB | DAL | BAL | 46 | 8 | 113 |
Mark Wimer | KC | DET | ARI | SD | CIN | DEN | IND | WAS | PIT | MIN | SF | ATL | GB | NO | DAL | BAL | 42 | 8 | 101 |
William Grant | OAK | DET | ARI | CAR | CIN | DEN | IND | WAS | PIT | MIN | NYJ | ATL | GB | NO | DAL | NE | 45 | 8 | 95 |
Keith Roberts | OAK | DET | ARI | SD | CIN | TEN | IND | WAS | BUF | JAC | SF | LAR | SEA | TB | NYG | NE | 46 | 5 | 100 |
Remarkable. Simply remarkable. If you had followed Matt Bitonti's advice in Las Vegas this past weekend (or your office pool) you would be a very happy person come Tuesday as he was 14-2 on the week, blowing the rest of the staff out of the water. Aaron Rudnicki's 11-5 record would have won most weeks, but not Week 14. Oddly enough, Matt lost the first two games (Thursday Night Football and Detroit, who failed to cover), but was perfect after those two contests. The guys at the top helped the staff's record overall, but all but one staffer (sorry Keith) had an 8-8 record or better. Not a good week for the sportsbooks, but I am sure that they will survive. This strong weekly showing (204-164, 55.4%) raised the staff further above 50% success levels to a 2,415-2,369 record, or 50.5% success rate.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | LAR | MIA | IND | PIT | JAC | TEN | CLE | PHI | DET | GB | NO | SF | OAK | NE | TB | CAR | |
Home Team: | SEA | NYJ | MIN | CIN | HOU | KC | BUF | BAL | NYG | CHI | ARI | ATL | SD | DEN | DAL | WAS | |
Favorite: | SEA | MIA | MIN | PIT | HOU | KC | BUF | BAL | NYG | GB | ARI | ATL | OAK | NE | DAL | WAS | |
Point Spread: | -14.5 | -2.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -10.5 | -5.5 | -4.5 | -6.5 | -2.5 | -13.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -7.5 | -4.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | |||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | SEA | MIA | MIN | PIT | HOU | KC | BUF | BAL | DET | GB | ARI | ATL | SD | NE | DAL | WAS | 51 |
Aaron Rudnicki | SEA | MIA | IND | PIT | JAC | TEN | BUF | BAL | NYG | GB | ARI | ATL | OAK | NE | TB | WAS | 42 |
Alessandro Miglio | LAR | NYJ | MIN | PIT | HOU | KC | CLE | BAL | DET | GB | ARI | SF | OAK | NE | TB | WAS | 48 |
Andrew Garda | SEA | MIA | MIN | PIT | HOU | KC | CLE | BAL | NYG | GB | ARI | ATL | OAK | NE | TB | WAS | 40 |
Andy Hicks | LAR | NYJ | IND | CIN | JAC | TEN | CLE | BAL | DET | GB | ARI | ATL | OAK | DEN | TB | WAS | 61 |
Bear Heiser | SEA | MIA | IND | PIT | JAC | KC | BUF | PHI | NYG | CHI | NO | ATL | OAK | NE | TB | WAS | 36 |
Chris Feery | SEA | NYJ | IND | PIT | JAC | TEN | BUF | BAL | DET | GB | NO | ATL | OAK | NE | DAL | CAR | 48 |
Chris Kuczynski | LAR | MIA | MIN | PIT | HOU | KC | CLE | BAL | DET | GB | ARI | ATL | OAK | NE | TB | WAS | 44 |
Clayton Gray | SEA | MIA | MIN | PIT | HOU | KC | CLE | BAL | DET | GB | NO | ATL | OAK | NE | TB | WAS | 58 |
Danny Tuccitto | LAR | MIA | IND | CIN | HOU | KC | CLE | BAL | DET | GB | ARI | ATL | OAK | DEN | TB | CAR | 49 |
Dave Larkin | SEA | MIA | IND | CIN | HOU | TEN | BUF | BAL | DET | GB | ARI | ATL | SD | DEN | TB | CAR | 48 |
Devin Knotts | LAR | MIA | IND | PIT | JAC | TEN | BUF | BAL | DET | GB | ARI | ATL | SD | NE | TB | WAS | 47 |
James Brimacombe | SEA | MIA | IND | PIT | JAC | TEN | BUF | PHI | DET | GB | ARI | ATL | SD | DEN | TB | CAR | 48 |
Jeff Haseley | LAR | MIA | MIN | CIN | HOU | KC | BUF | BAL | DET | GB | ARI | ATL | OAK | DEN | TB | CAR | 46 |
John Mamula | LAR | MIA | IND | PIT | JAC | KC | BUF | BAL | DET | GB | ARI | ATL | OAK | NE | TB | WAS | 43 |
Justin Bonnema | SEA | NYJ | IND | PIT | HOU | KC | CLE | BAL | NYG | GB | ARI | ATL | SD | NE | TB | CAR | 48 |
Justin Howe | SEA | MIA | MIN | CIN | HOU | KC | CLE | BAL | DET | GB | ARI | ATL | OAK | DEN | TB | CAR | 51 |
Keith Roberts | LAR | NYJ | IND | CIN | JAC | TEN | BUF | BAL | NYG | CHI | ARI | ATL | SD | NE | TB | WAS | 52 |
Mark Wimer | SEA | MIA | MIN | PIT | HOU | KC | CLE | BAL | DET | GB | NO | ATL | OAK | DEN | DAL | WAS | 45 |
Matt Bitonti | SEA | NYJ | MIN | PIT | HOU | KC | CLE | PHI | NYG | CHI | ARI | ATL | OAK | NE | TB | WAS | 52 |
Phil Alexander | SEA | MIA | IND | CIN | JAC | KC | CLE | BAL | NYG | GB | ARI | SF | OAK | DEN | TB | CAR | 53 |
William Grant | SEA | NYJ | MIN | PIT | HOU | KC | BUF | BAL | DET | GB | ARI | ATL | OAK | NE | TB | WAS | 51 |
Jason Wood | LAR | NYJ | MIN | PIT | HOU | TEN | CLE | PHI | NYG | GB | NO | SF | OAK | NE | TB | WAS | 43 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
The season is almost over, but getting everyone on the same page does not seem to be in the cards. With 23 sets of picks all in now, many of the favorites are the picks this week. Only two underdogs were clear picks as Tampa Bay had 20 votes while Detroit had 15. Four teams were chosen 20 times (Atlanta, Baltimore, Green Bay, Tampa Bay) with two road teams in that mix in the Packers and Buccaneers. Arizona was one step behind with 18 selections as the Cardinals host the Saints. Oakland came in next with 17 of 23 selections as the Raiders visit San Diego but are a slight favorite. Pittsburgh follows up with 16 choices in a trip to Cincinnati. Seven teams come in with 14 or 15 picks this week, starting with Miami, New England, Washington, Kansas City and Detroit with 15 of 23 choices from the staff. Seattle and Houston close out the group with 14 picks. Only Detroit is an underdog from these seven teams, but three of them (Dolphins, Lions, Patriots) are on the road. Two teams remain on the list with close to split decisions, as Cleveland (12) and Indianapolis (12) are slightly chosen more than 50% of the time by the staff. Week 15 looks to be yet another interesting week, so let's see how it all plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
We are getting close to the end of the season, and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.