Against The Spread Pool: Week 15

Footballguys.com Staff Pick NFL Games Against the Las Vegas Point Spread

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread.  Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (23) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line.  As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.  

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

Road Team: MIN DET PIT NO INDY SD WASH SF TEN ATL SEA BUF OAK DAL NE NYG        
Home Team: AZ STL CIN TB JAX KC CHI CLE NYJ CAR BAL PHI DEN GB HOU MIA        
Favorite: AZ STL CIN TB JAX KC CHI CLE NYJ CAR SEA PHI DEN GB NE MIA        
Point Spread: -7.5 -1.5 -3.5 -3.5 -0.5 -10.5 -3.5 -1.5 -7.5 -7.5 -7.5 -0.5 -7.5 -7.5 -3.5 -0.5        
Staffer The Picks MNF LW YtD Win%
Jason Wood MIN DET PIT NO JAX SD CHI SF NYJ ATL SEA PHI OAK GB NE NYG 51 12 118 56.7%
Justin Bonnema AZ DET PIT NO JAX SD CHI CLE TEN ATL SEA PHI OAK GB NE NYG 52 11 115 55.2%
Phil Alexander AZ DET PIT NO JAX SD CHI CLE TEN CAR SEA PHI OAK GB HOU NYG 36 11 115 55.2%
Dan Hindery AZ DET PIT NO JAX SD WASH SF TEN CAR SEA PHI OAK GB HOU MIA 42 10 99 47.5%
James Brimacombe MIN DET PIT TB INDY SD WASH SF NYJ CAR SEA PHI DEN GB NE MIA 48 10 100 48.0%
John Lee AZ STL PIT TB JAX KC WASH CLE TEN CAR BAL BUF OAK GB NE NYG 47 10 111 53.3%
Alessandro Miglio AZ STL CIN TB INDY SD CHI CLE TEN CAR SEA PHI OAK GB NE MIA 47 9 109 52.4%
Chris Feery MIN DET CIN TB JAX KC WASH SF NYJ CAR SEA BUF OAK DAL NE NYG 49 9 103 49.5%
Dave Larkin AZ DET PIT TB JAX SD WASH CLE NYJ ATL SEA BUF DEN GB NE MIA 44 9 109 52.4%
Justin Howe AZ DET PIT TB JAX SD WASH SF TEN ATL SEA PHI OAK GB NE MIA 48 9 117 56.2%
Matt Bitonti AZ DET CIN NO JAX KC WASH CLE NYJ CAR SEA BUF DEN GB HOU NYG 42 9 107 51.4%
Steve Holloway AZ STL PIT TB JAX SD CHI CLE NYJ CAR SEA BUF DEN GB HOU MIA 44 9 94 45.1%
Jeff Pasquino AZ DET PIT TB JAX KC WASH SF NYJ CAR SEA BUF DEN GB NE MIA 43 8 104 50.0%
Aaron Rudnicki MIN DET PIT NO INDY KC WASH SF TEN CAR SEA BUF DEN GB NE MIA 45 8 107 51.4%
Danny Tuccitto AZ STL PIT TB JAX SD WASH CLE TEN ATL BAL PHI OAK DAL NE MIA 49 7 104 50.0%
William Grant AZ DET PIT TB INDY SD WASH CLE TEN CAR SEA BUF DEN DAL NE MIA 46 7 108 51.9%
Andrew Garda AZ DET CIN TB INDY SD CHI SF NYJ CAR SEA BUF DEN DAL NE NYG 40 6 103 49.5%
Andy Hicks AZ STL CIN TB JAX KC CHI CLE NYJ CAR BAL BUF DEN GB HOU MIA 51 6 109 52.4%
Maurile Tremblay AZ STL PIT TB JAX SD WASH SF TEN ATL BAL BUF OAK DAL HOU MIA 47 6 110 52.8%
Bear Heiser AZ DET CIN TB JAX KC WASH SF TEN CAR SEA BUF DEN GB HOU MIA 46 5 104 50.0%
Clayton Gray AZ DET CIN TB INDY KC CHI SF NYJ CAR SEA BUF DEN GB HOU NYG 47 5 102 49.0%
Mark Wimer AZ DET CIN TB JAX KC CHI SF NYJ CAR SEA BUF DEN GB HOU MIA 45 5 101 48.5%
Jeff Haseley AZ DET CIN TB INDY KC WASH SF TEN CAR BAL BUF OAK DAL NE MIA 48 4 96 46.1%

Jason Wood claimed the title in Week 14 with 12 out of 16 correct picks, getting past Justin Bonnema and Phil Alexander by one game.  That moved Jason into first place overall on the year with a record of 118- 90, nearly a 57% winning percentage, which is extremely good - but not even 5% above what it takes to beat Las Vegas (52.3%). That just shows you how hard it is to beat Vegas on a consistent basis.  Jason leads Justin Howe by one game in the overall standings and both Justin Bonnema and Phil Alexander by three correct picks.   The staff did only an average jobl in Week 14 with about a .500 record (185-183) due to upsets of Arizona (19 losses), Tampa Bay (17) and Miami (15), plus a few bad upset calls with Detroit (17) and Buffalo (15) not getting the job done.  The entire group moved to 2,445-2,339 (51.1%) on the year, which is not quite enough for the entire staff to be beating Las Vegas. Here's hoping that the winning ways improve in Week 15. 

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week:

Road Team: TB NYJ HOU ATL BUF CAR TEN CHI KC CLE GB DEN CIN MIA AZ DET  
Home Team: STL DAL INDY JAX WASH NYG NE MIN BAL SEA OAK PIT SF SD PHI NO  
Favorite: STL NYJ INDY JAX BUF CAR NE MIN KC SEA GB PIT CIN SD AZ NO  
Point Spread: -0.5 -3.5 -2.5 -3.5 -0.5 -4.5 -14.5 -5.5 -7.5 -14.5 -2.5 -6.5 -4.5 -0.5 -3.5 -2.5  
Staffer The Picks MNF
Jeff Pasquino TB NYJ HOU JAX BUF CAR NE MIN KC SEA GB DEN CIN MIA AZ NO 65
Aaron Rudnicki TB NYJ INDY JAX BUF CAR NE MIN KC SEA GB DEN SF MIA PHI NO 46
Alessandro Miglio STL DAL INDY JAX WASH CAR TEN MIN BAL CLE GB PIT CIN SD AZ NO 50
Andrew Garda STL NYJ HOU JAX WASH CAR NE MIN KC SEA GB DEN CIN MIA AZ NO 70
Andy Hicks STL NYJ HOU JAX BUF CAR NE CHI KC CLE OAK DEN CIN MIA PHI NO 61
Bear Heiser TB NYJ INDY JAX BUF CAR NE CHI KC SEA GB PIT CIN MIA AZ DET 64
Chris Feery TB NYJ HOU JAX BUF NYG NE MIN KC SEA OAK DEN CIN MIA AZ NO 49
Clayton Gray STL NYJ HOU JAX WASH CAR NE CHI KC SEA OAK DEN SF SD PHI NO 52
Dan Hindery TB NYJ HOU ATL WASH CAR NE MIN KC CLE OAK DEN CIN MIA AZ NO 55
Danny Tuccitto STL DAL INDY ATL BUF NYG TEN MIN BAL CLE GB PIT SF SD PHI NO 49
Dave Larkin TB NYJ HOU JAX WASH NYG NE CHI KC SEA GB DEN CIN MIA PHI NO 52
James Brimacombe TB NYJ HOU ATL BUF CAR NE CHI KC SEA GB DEN CIN SD PHI NO 50
Jason Wood TB NYJ HOU JAX BUF NYG TEN CHI KC SEA OAK DEN SF MIA AZ DET 53
Jeff Haseley STL DAL INDY JAX BUF CAR NE CHI BAL SEA OAK DEN CIN SD AZ DET 53
John Lee TB NYJ HOU JAX BUF CAR NE CHI BAL CLE GB PIT SF MIA AZ NO 50
Justin Bonnema TB NYJ HOU JAX WASH NYG TEN CHI BAL CLE GB PIT SF MIA AZ NO 52
Justin Howe TB NYJ HOU ATL BUF CAR TEN CHI BAL CLE GB DEN CIN SD AZ NO 49
Mark Wimer TB NYJ INDY JAX WASH CAR NE MIN KC SEA GB DEN CIN MIA AZ NO 52
Matt Bitonti TB NYJ INDY JAX BUF CAR NE CHI KC SEA OAK DEN CIN MIA PHI NO 49
Maurile Tremblay TB DAL HOU ATL BUF CAR TEN CHI BAL CLE OAK DEN CIN MIA AZ DET 49
Phil Alexander TB DAL HOU ATL WASH NYG NE MIN KC SEA GB PIT CIN MIA PHI NO 50
Steve Holloway TB NYJ HOU JAX WASH CAR NE CHI KC CLE GB PIT SF MIA AZ NO 64
William Grant STL NYJ HOU JAX BUF CAR NE MIN KC CLE GB DEN CIN SD AZ NO 51

CONSENSUS WINNERS

Most of the season is now behind us, but consensus is still hard to achieve.  The closest thing to a consensus pick this week is New Orleans, who received 19 of 23 choices from the staff, which is a bit surprising given that the game is just a 3-point contest on paper according to Vegas.  Next closest was the Jets (18), followed by a three-way tie if Jacksonville, Carolina and New England with 17 selections.  Six teams received 16 votes (Tampa Bay, Houston, Kansas City, Denver, Cincinnati and Miami) which include four upset picks (Buccaneers, Texans, Broncos and Dolphins).  Green Bay and Arizona were chosen 15 times, while Buffalo (14), Chicago (13) and Seattle round out the top of the list.  No games were close enough to call a dead heat this week.  WIth just three weeks to go, there is certainly lots at stake and plenty of interesting calls to make Week 15 one to watch. 

ODDS AND ENDS

We are getting deeper into the season so we should know more, but picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 52.3% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding.  That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.


More articles from Jeff Pasquino

See all