Against The Spread Pool: Week 14

Photo: USA Today Sports

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread.  Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (23) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line.  As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.   

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

This week had two staff members (Matt Bitonti and Jeff Haseley) atop the standings, as both of them went 11-4 on the week.  Matt won the tiebreaker for total score for Monday Night Football with a guess of 48 points, closer to the actual total of 51 than Jeff's 46.  Close one, for sure.  Three other staffers (Jeff Pasquino, Danny Tuccitto and Mark Wimer) hit the 10 win mark, and it should be pointed out that they did it with two teams on a bye, so that makes their 10-5 records all the more impressive.  The staff overall had a strong showing once again, making three winning weeks in a row (193-152, 55.9%).  These strong showings the past weeks has raised the staff to above 50% for the year now (2,211-2,205, 50.1%).   If this pace continues, the staff could push for a positive Las Vegas record of 52.3% accuracy or better. 

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week:

CONSENSUS WINNERS

With just a few weeks left, we should be getting closer to some collective understanding as to which teams are good and which are bad.  Cincinnati was a near sweep this week as the Bengals visit the Browns, and all but one staffer went in the direction of Cincinnati.  I have this bad feeling that this is a trap game, but we shall see if the Browns fold once again.  A lot of road teams were chosen as majority picks this week, including the second favorite with the Steelers (19 of 23 picks).  Detroit and two more road teams (Atlanta, Washington) came in with 18 selections, and three more clubs (Indianapolis, Minnesota and Tampa Bay) received 16 votes.  Yet two more road teams (Dallas, Oakland) came in with 15 choices, while Arizona, San Francisco and Green Bay were just behind with 14 picks this week.  Carolina (13), Denver (13) and Baltimore (12) were slight favorites this week in three close call contests.  Week 14 looks to be yet another interesting week, so let's see how it all plays out.

ODDS AND ENDS

We are getting close to the end of the season, and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding.  That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

Follow @JeffPasquino

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