Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (22) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored in the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from this week.
Road Team: | MIN | LAC | NYG | TEN | TB | MIA | CLE | CHI | CAR | BUF | SEA | JAC | NO | DEN | GB | HOU | |||
Home Team: | DET | DAL | WAS | IND | ATL | NE | CIN | PHI | NYJ | KC | SF | ARI | LAR | OAK | PIT | BAL | |||
Favorite: | MIN | DAL | WAS | TEN | ATL | NE | CIN | PHI | CAR | KC | SEA | JAC | LAR | OAK | PIT | BAL | |||
Point Spread: | -2.5 | -1.5 | -7.5 | -3.5 | -8.5 | -16.5 | -8.5 | -13.5 | -4.5 | -9.5 | -7.5 | -4.5 | -2.5 | -4.5 | -14.5 | -7.5 | |||
Staffer | Last Week's Picks | MNF | Last | Year to | |||||||||||||||
Tot Pts | Week | Date | |||||||||||||||||
James Brimacombe | DET | LAC | WAS | TEN | ATL | NE | CIN | PHI | CAR | BUF | SEA | ARI | LAR | OAK | GB | HOU | 42 | 15 | 94 |
Aaron Rudnicki | MIN | LAC | NYG | TEN | TB | NE | CIN | PHI | CAR | KC | SEA | ARI | NO | DEN | GB | HOU | 42 | 11 | 97 |
Andrew Garda | MIN | LAC | WAS | TEN | ATL | NE | CIN | PHI | CAR | KC | SF | JAC | LAR | OAK | PIT | BAL | 50 | 11 | 92 |
Bear Heiser | DET | LAC | WAS | IND | ATL | NE | CLE | PHI | CAR | BUF | SEA | ARI | NO | OAK | PIT | HOU | 38 | 11 | 96 |
Dave Larkin | DET | LAC | NYG | TEN | ATL | NE | CIN | PHI | NYJ | BUF | SEA | ARI | LAR | DEN | PIT | HOU | 36 | 11 | 96 |
John Mamula | MIN | LAC | WAS | TEN | ATL | NE | CLE | PHI | CAR | KC | SEA | JAC | NO | OAK | PIT | HOU | 42 | 11 | 92 |
Stephen Holloway | MIN | LAC | WAS | TEN | ATL | NE | CLE | PHI | NYJ | BUF | SEA | JAC | NO | OAK | GB | BAL | 41 | 11 | 89 |
Justin Bonnema | DET | LAC | NYG | IND | TB | NE | CIN | PHI | CAR | BUF | SEA | ARI | NO | OAK | PIT | HOU | 48 | 10 | 93 |
Mark Wimer | DET | LAC | WAS | TEN | ATL | MIA | CIN | PHI | CAR | KC | SEA | JAC | LAR | OAK | PIT | BAL | 38 | 10 | 96 |
William Grant | DET | LAC | NYG | TEN | ATL | MIA | CIN | PHI | CAR | BUF | SEA | JAC | NO | OAK | PIT | HOU | 36 | 10 | 90 |
Jeff Pasquino | DET | LAC | WAS | TEN | ATL | NE | CIN | PHI | CAR | KC | SEA | JAC | NO | DEN | PIT | BAL | 34 | 9 | 90 |
Alessandro Miglio | DET | DAL | WAS | IND | TB | MIA | CLE | CHI | NYJ | BUF | SEA | ARI | LAR | OAK | GB | HOU | 43 | 8 | 85 |
Chris Feery | DET | LAC | NYG | IND | ATL | NE | CLE | PHI | NYJ | BUF | SEA | ARI | NO | DEN | PIT | HOU | 40 | 8 | 85 |
Jeff Haseley | MIN | DAL | WAS | TEN | TB | NE | CLE | PHI | NYJ | KC | SEA | ARI | LAR | DEN | PIT | BAL | 39 | 8 | 84 |
Keith Roberts | MIN | LAC | NYG | TEN | ATL | NE | CLE | PHI | CAR | KC | SF | JAC | NO | DEN | PIT | HOU | 37 | 8 | 88 |
Phil Alexander | DET | DAL | NYG | IND | ATL | MIA | CLE | PHI | NYJ | KC | SEA | ARI | LAR | OAK | GB | HOU | 36 | 8 | 95 |
Danny Tuccitto | DET | LAC | WAS | IND | TB | NE | CIN | CHI | NYJ | KC | SEA | JAC | NO | OAK | PIT | HOU | 49 | 7 | 94 |
Devin Knotts | DET | DAL | NYG | TEN | TB | MIA | CLE | CHI | CAR | BUF | SEA | JAC | NO | OAK | GB | HOU | 40 | 7 | 92 |
Jason Wood | MIN | DAL | NYG | TEN | ATL | MIA | CLE | CHI | CAR | KC | SEA | JAC | NO | OAK | GB | BAL | 43 | 7 | 89 |
Matt Bitonti | MIN | DAL | WAS | TEN | ATL | MIA | CLE | CHI | CAR | KC | SF | JAC | NO | OAK | GB | BAL | 45 | 7 | 101 |
Andy Hicks | DET | DAL | NYG | IND | TB | MIA | CLE | CHI | NYJ | BUF | SF | ARI | NO | OAK | GB | BAL | 37 | 4 | 80 |
Justin Howe | DET | DAL | NYG | IND | TB | MIA | CLE | CHI | NYJ | BUF | SF | ARI | NO | DEN | GB | BAL | 38 | 3 | 77 |
What a great week for the staff! James Brimacombe nearly had a perfect week with an unbelievable 15-1 record for Week 12 - only the first game of the week (Detroit) tripped him up. Remarkable. To continue that theme, six of the staff went 11-5 and three more went 10-6, with one straggler (me) at 9-7. Nearly everyone had winning weeks (16 of 22) and four of the rest missed by one at 7-9. Overall the group went 195-157 in Week 12, a strong 55.4% winning percentage. Maybe the picks should be due early every week! The strong showing raised the overall staff record to 1,995-1,877 (51.5%), or 118 games over .500. With just five weeks left, let's see if the staff can finish strong.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week.
Road Team: | WAS | SF | MIN | HOU | TB | DEN | NE | DET | IND | KC | CLE | NYG | LAR | CAR | PHI | PIT | |
Home Team: | DAL | CHI | ATL | TEN | GB | MIA | BUF | BAL | JAC | NYJ | LAC | OAK | ARI | NO | SEA | CIN | |
Favorite: | DAL | CHI | ATL | TEN | GB | MIA | NE | BAL | JAC | KC | LAC | OAK | LAR | NO | PHI | PIT | |
Point Spread: | -1.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -7.5 | -1.5 | -0.5 | -8.5 | -2.5 | -9.5 | -3.5 | -13.5 | -6.5 | -6.5 | -3.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | |||||||||||||||
Tot Pts | |||||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | WAS | SF | MIN | TEN | GB | MIA | NE | DET | JAC | NYJ | LAC | OAK | LAR | NO | PHI | PIT | 43 |
Aaron Rudnicki | WAS | SF | ATL | HOU | GB | MIA | NE | DET | IND | NYJ | LAC | OAK | ARI | CAR | SEA | PIT | 46 |
Alessandro Miglio | DAL | CHI | ATL | HOU | GB | MIA | NE | BAL | IND | NYJ | CLE | OAK | LAR | NO | SEA | CIN | 51 |
Andrew Garda | WAS | CHI | ATL | HOU | GB | MIA | NE | BAL | IND | NYJ | LAC | OAK | LAR | NO | PHI | PIT | 50 |
Andy Hicks | DAL | SF | MIN | HOU | GB | MIA | BUF | DET | IND | NYJ | CLE | NYG | ARI | CAR | SEA | CIN | 51 |
Bear Heiser | WAS | SF | ATL | TEN | GB | MIA | NE | DET | JAC | NYJ | LAC | OAK | LAR | CAR | PHI | PIT | 44 |
Chris Feery | WAS | SF | ATL | HOU | GB | DEN | BUF | DET | IND | NYJ | LAC | OAK | ARI | NO | SEA | CIN | 42 |
Danny Tuccitto | DAL | SF | MIN | HOU | GB | MIA | BUF | BAL | JAC | KC | LAC | NYG | ARI | NO | SEA | CIN | 49 |
Dave Larkin | DAL | SF | ATL | HOU | GB | DEN | NE | DET | IND | NYJ | CLE | OAK | ARI | NO | SEA | CIN | 44 |
Devin Knotts | WAS | CHI | ATL | HOU | GB | DEN | NE | BAL | JAC | KC | CLE | OAK | LAR | NO | PHI | PIT | 44 |
James Brimacombe | DAL | CHI | ATL | HOU | GB | DEN | BUF | DET | JAC | KC | LAC | OAK | LAR | NO | PHI | CIN | 43 |
Jason Wood | DAL | SF | MIN | HOU | GB | MIA | NE | DET | IND | KC | CLE | NYG | LAR | NO | SEA | PIT | 43 |
Jeff Haseley | WAS | CHI | MIN | HOU | GB | MIA | BUF | BAL | JAC | NYJ | LAC | OAK | LAR | NO | PHI | PIT | 44 |
John Mamula | WAS | CHI | MIN | HOU | GB | MIA | NE | DET | JAC | NYJ | CLE | OAK | LAR | NO | PHI | PIT | 50 |
Justin Bonnema | WAS | CHI | ATL | HOU | GB | DEN | NE | DET | JAC | NYJ | LAC | OAK | LAR | NO | SEA | CIN | 48 |
Keith Roberts | WAS | SF | ATL | HOU | GB | MIA | NE | DET | IND | KC | LAC | NYG | LAR | NO | PHI | PIT | 50 |
Mark Wimer | WAS | CHI | ATL | TEN | GB | MIA | NE | BAL | JAC | NYJ | LAC | OAK | LAR | NO | PHI | PIT | 38 |
Matt Bitonti | WAS | SF | ATL | TEN | TB | MIA | NE | BAL | JAC | NYJ | LAC | OAK | LAR | CAR | SEA | CIN | 48 |
Phil Alexander | DAL | SF | MIN | HOU | GB | DEN | NE | BAL | IND | NYJ | CLE | NYG | LAR | CAR | SEA | CIN | 44 |
Stephen Holloway | WAS | CHI | MIN | TEN | GB | MIA | BUF | BAL | JAC | NYJ | LAC | OAK | ARI | NO | PHI | PIT | 47 |
William Grant | DAL | CHI | ATL | HOU | GB | DEN | NE | DET | JAC | NYJ | LAC | OAK | LAR | NO | PHI | CIN | 42 |
Justin Howe |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
All but one set of picks are in this morning, and one team got an amazing 20 out of 21 votes. Green Bay is hosting Tampa Bay this week, and given how impressive the Packers were in a loss at Pittsburgh last Sunday night, many are on them this week to beat the Buccaneers. This could be a trap, however, with Jameis Winston due back for Tampa Bay, so I am not 100% behind this pick - but it does make sense. I was just surprised to see 95% of the staff in agreement on a Green Bay team still lacking Aaron Rodgers. As for the rest of the picks, the splits between home and road teams was relatively close (9-7 home), and five underdogs (Houston, Washington, Detroit, San Francisco and the Jets) were more popular than the favorite in those games. Many of the choices were close to split with seven of the games divided either 11-10, 12-9 or 13-8 with the selections. Teams getting more of a majority include two teams getting 14 votes (Miami, Los Angeles Chargers), two more with 15 votes (New England and the Rams) and still four more getting 16 votes (Houston, Oakland, New Orleans and the Jets). Only two of these eight teams with majorities were road teams (Houston, New England) and only two are underdogs (Houston and the Jets). Once again, Week 13 has all the makings of yet another very interesting week in the NFL and for the staff picks.
ODDS AND ENDS
We have reached the final stretch of the season - just five weeks left - and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com