Against The Spread Pool: Week 12

Footballguys.com Staff Pick NFL Games Against the Las Vegas Point Spread

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread.  Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (22) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line.  As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored in the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.   

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from this week.

Road Team: TEN JAC TB ARI WAS KC LAR BAL DET BUF CIN NE PHI ATL      
Home Team: PIT CLE MIA HOU NO NYG MIN GB CHI LAC DEN OAK DAL SEA      
Favorite: PIT JAC MIA ARI NO KC MIN BAL DET LAC DEN NE PHI SEA      
Point Spread: -6.5 -7.5 -2.5 -1.5 -7.5 -10.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -3.5 -2.5 -6.5 -3.5 -2.5 MNF Last Year to
Staffer Last Week's Picks Tot Pts Week Date
Mark Wimer PIT JAC TB ARI NO KC MIN BAL DET LAC CIN OAK PHI ATL 51 10 86
Aaron Rudnicki TEN CLE TB ARI WAS KC MIN BAL DET LAC CIN NE PHI SEA 44 9 86
Danny Tuccitto PIT JAC MIA HOU NO KC MIN BAL DET LAC DEN NE PHI SEA 49 9 87
Jeff Haseley PIT JAC TB HOU NO KC MIN GB DET LAC DEN NE PHI SEA 46 9 86
Justin Howe PIT CLE MIA HOU WAS NYG MIN BAL DET BUF CIN OAK PHI SEA 45 9 84
Phil Alexander PIT CLE MIA HOU WAS KC MIN GB DET LAC CIN NE PHI SEA 50 9 87
Alessandro Miglio PIT JAC MIA HOU WAS NYG MIN GB CHI LAC DEN NE DAL SEA 51 8 77
Andrew Garda PIT JAC MIA ARI WAS KC MIN GB DET LAC DEN NE PHI SEA 47 8 81
Bear Heiser PIT JAC MIA ARI NO KC MIN GB DET LAC CIN NE PHI SEA 54 8 85
James Brimacombe PIT JAC MIA HOU NO KC MIN GB DET LAC DEN OAK PHI ATL 44 8 79
John Mamula TEN JAC MIA HOU WAS KC MIN BAL DET BUF DEN NE PHI SEA 47 8 81
Keith Roberts TEN JAC MIA HOU NO NYG LAR GB DET LAC CIN NE PHI SEA 50 8 80
Matt Bitonti TEN JAC TB HOU NO KC LAR BAL DET BUF CIN NE PHI SEA 53 8 94
Jeff Pasquino TEN JAC TB ARI NO KC LAR GB DET LAC CIN NE PHI SEA 47 7 81
Chris Feery TEN CLE MIA HOU WAS KC MIN GB DET BUF DEN NE PHI ATL 48 7 77
Dave Larkin PIT CLE TB ARI WAS NYG MIN GB CHI LAC DEN NE DAL SEA 41 7 85
Devin Knotts PIT JAC MIA ARI NO NYG LAR GB DET LAC CIN NE DAL SEA 47 7 85
Jason Wood TEN JAC TB ARI NO KC MIN BAL DET BUF DEN NE PHI SEA 47 7 82
Justin Bonnema TEN JAC TB ARI NO NYG LAR GB DET LAC CIN OAK PHI SEA 49 7 83
Andy Hicks TEN JAC MIA ARI WAS NYG LAR GB DET BUF CIN OAK DAL ATL 51 6 76
Stephen Holloway PIT JAC MIA ARI NO KC LAR GB DET LAC DEN NE PHI SEA 51 6 78
William Grant PIT JAC MIA ARI NO KC LAR GB DET BUF DEN NE PHI SEA 42 5 80

Mark Wimer was the only staffer to get to 10 correct selections in Week 11, so he finished ahead of the staff in our weekly contest here.  Overall the group did quite well, with nearly everyone at 7-7 or better.  That strong performance by the team (170-138, 55.2%) moved the group up on the season to 120 games over 50% (1,820-1,700 or 51.7%).  That is very close the Vegas profitability number (52.3%) which is remarkable for the staff and getting picks in early.  That will be tested quite a bit this week with a short and tight schedule to get articles published a day early.   

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

Road Team: MIN LAC NYG TEN TB MIA CLE CHI CAR BUF SEA JAC NO DEN GB HOU  
Home Team: DET DAL WAS IND ATL NE CIN PHI NYJ KC SF ARI LAR OAK PIT BAL  
Favorite: MIN DAL WAS TEN ATL NE CIN PHI CAR KC SEA JAC LAR OAK PIT BAL  
Point Spread: -2.5 -1.5 -7.5 -3.5 -8.5 -16.5 -8.5 -13.5 -4.5 -9.5 -7.5 -4.5 -2.5 -4.5 -14.5 -7.5 MNF
Staffer The Picks Tot Pts
Jeff Pasquino DET LAC WAS TEN ATL NE CIN PHI CAR KC SEA JAC NO DEN PIT BAL 34
Aaron Rudnicki MIN LAC NYG TEN TB NE CIN PHI CAR KC SEA ARI NO DEN GB HOU 42
Alessandro Miglio DET DAL WAS IND TB MIA CLE CHI NYJ BUF SEA ARI LAR OAK GB HOU 43
Andrew Garda MIN LAC WAS TEN ATL NE CIN PHI CAR KC SF JAC LAR OAK PIT BAL 50
Andy Hicks DET DAL NYG IND TB MIA CLE CHI NYJ BUF SF ARI NO OAK GB BAL 37
Chris Feery DET LAC NYG IND ATL NE CLE PHI NYJ BUF SEA ARI NO DEN PIT HOU 40
Danny Tuccitto DET LAC WAS IND TB NE CIN CHI NYJ KC SEA JAC NO OAK PIT HOU 49
Dave Larkin DET LAC NYG TEN ATL NE CIN PHI NYJ BUF SEA ARI LAR DEN PIT HOU 36
Devin Knotts DET DAL NYG TEN TB MIA CLE CHI CAR BUF SEA JAC NO OAK GB HOU 40
James Brimacombe DET LAC WAS TEN ATL NE CIN PHI CAR BUF SEA ARI LAR OAK GB HOU 42
Jason Wood MIN DAL NYG TEN ATL MIA CLE CHI CAR KC SEA JAC NO OAK GB BAL 43
Jeff Haseley MIN DAL WAS TEN TB NE CLE PHI NYJ KC SEA ARI LAR DEN PIT BAL 39
John Mamula MIN LAC WAS TEN ATL NE CLE PHI CAR KC SEA JAC NO OAK PIT HOU 42
Justin Bonnema DET LAC NYG IND TB NE CIN PHI CAR BUF SEA ARI NO OAK PIT HOU 48
Justin Howe DET DAL NYG IND TB MIA CLE CHI NYJ BUF SF ARI NO DEN GB BAL 38
Keith Roberts MIN LAC NYG TEN ATL NE CLE PHI CAR KC SF JAC NO DEN PIT HOU 37
Mark Wimer DET LAC WAS TEN ATL MIA CIN PHI CAR KC SEA JAC LAR OAK PIT BAL 38
Matt Bitonti MIN DAL WAS TEN ATL MIA CLE CHI CAR KC SF JAC NO OAK GB BAL 45
Phil Alexander DET DAL NYG IND ATL MIA CLE PHI NYJ KC SEA ARI LAR OAK GB HOU 36
Stephen Holloway MIN LAC WAS TEN ATL NE CLE PHI NYJ BUF SEA JAC NO OAK GB BAL 41
William Grant DET LAC NYG TEN ATL MIA CIN PHI CAR BUF SEA JAC NO OAK PIT HOU 36
Bear Heiser                                  

CONSENSUS WINNERS

All but one set of picks are in this morning, and only two teams had more than 70% of the votes.  Strangely enough, the Baltimore Ravens led the way with 19 of 21 picks this week.  I guess everyone believes in that defense (two shutouts including last week in Chicago) and also has no faith in Houston.  I can get behind that (and I did).  Seattle (16 of 21) is also expected to win and cover the number by the staff, as the Seahawks head to San Francisco.  I went there with my pick, but I think that this game could be much closer than many think with Seattle's secondary banged up and the 49ers coming off of a bye. These two teams really tend to play each other hard every time they match up, which is common with divisional foes.

As for the rest of the picks, they were all clustered around 11-14 out of 21 choices for majorities for the remaining 14 games.  Five underdogs were majority choices (New Orleans, Detroit, Cleveland, the Giants and the Chargers) - and all three underdogs from Thursday were top picks.  Road and home teams were split 8-8 this week, with Seattle the top road team on the list.  Four games were nearly split down the middle with four teams getting the nod 11-10 (Giants, Chiefs, Jaguars and Steelers).  Tough week with picks due 24 hours early, but as long as Seattle and Baltimore cover the spread, the group should do reasonably well.       


ODDS AND ENDS

We have reached the midpoint of the season - nearly half of the games have been played (due to byes) - and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding.  That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com


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