Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (23) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | NO | ARI | BAL | PIT | BUF | TEN | TB | JAC | CHI | MIA | PHI | NE | GB | HOU | |||
Home Team: | CAR | MIN | DAL | CLE | CIN | IND | KC | DET | NYG | LAR | SEA | SF | WAS | OAK | |||
Favorite: | CAR | MIN | DAL | PIT | CIN | IND | KC | DET | NYG | LAR | SEA | NE | WAS | OAK | |||
Point Spread: | -4.5 | -0.5 | -7.5 | -8.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -7.5 | -6.5 | -6.5 | -0.5 | -6.5 | -13.5 | -2.5 | -5.5 | |||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | YtD | |||||||||||||
Andy Hicks | NO | MIN | BAL | PIT | CIN | IND | TB | JAC | CHI | LAR | SEA | SF | WAS | OAK | 49 | 10 | 81 |
Keith Roberts | NO | MIN | DAL | PIT | BUF | TEN | TB | DET | NYG | MIA | SEA | NE | GB | OAK | 51 | 10 | 79 |
Danny Tuccitto | NO | MIN | BAL | PIT | BUF | TEN | TB | DET | NYG | LAR | SEA | NE | WAS | OAK | 49 | 9 | 85 |
James Brimacombe | NO | ARI | DAL | PIT | BUF | IND | KC | DET | NYG | MIA | SEA | NE | GB | OAK | 50 | 9 | 86 |
Justin Howe | NO | MIN | BAL | CLE | BUF | TEN | TB | DET | NYG | MIA | SEA | NE | WAS | OAK | 47 | 9 | 88 |
Matt Bitonti | NO | MIN | DAL | PIT | CIN | TEN | KC | DET | NYG | MIA | SEA | NE | WAS | OAK | 56 | 9 | 77 |
Jeff Pasquino | NO | ARI | DAL | PIT | BUF | TEN | KC | DET | NYG | MIA | SEA | NE | GB | OAK | 47 | 8 | 79 |
Clayton Gray | NO | MIN | DAL | CLE | BUF | TEN | KC | DET | NYG | LAR | SEA | NE | WAS | OAK | 52 | 8 | 80 |
Dave Larkin | NO | MIN | DAL | PIT | CIN | TEN | KC | DET | NYG | MIA | SEA | NE | GB | OAK | 48 | 8 | 77 |
Devin Knotts | NO | ARI | DAL | PIT | CIN | IND | TB | DET | NYG | LAR | SEA | NE | GB | OAK | 45 | 8 | 79 |
Justin Bonnema | NO | ARI | DAL | PIT | CIN | IND | KC | DET | NYG | MIA | SEA | NE | GB | OAK | 45 | 8 | 75 |
Phil Alexander | NO | MIN | BAL | CLE | BUF | IND | KC | DET | CHI | MIA | SEA | NE | GB | HOU | 37 | 8 | 86 |
Aaron Rudnicki | NO | ARI | BAL | CLE | BUF | TEN | TB | DET | NYG | MIA | SEA | NE | GB | OAK | 40 | 7 | 77 |
Alessandro Miglio | NO | MIN | DAL | CLE | CIN | TEN | TB | JAC | NYG | MIA | PHI | NE | WAS | OAK | 48 | 7 | 73 |
Andrew Garda | CAR | ARI | DAL | PIT | CIN | TEN | KC | DET | NYG | MIA | SEA | NE | WAS | OAK | 45 | 7 | 78 |
Bear Heiser | CAR | ARI | DAL | PIT | BUF | TEN | KC | DET | NYG | MIA | SEA | NE | GB | OAK | 46 | 7 | 78 |
Chris Feery | NO | ARI | DAL | PIT | BUF | TEN | KC | JAC | NYG | MIA | PHI | NE | WAS | OAK | 45 | 7 | 76 |
Chris Kuczynski | NO | ARI | DAL | PIT | CIN | TEN | KC | DET | NYG | MIA | SEA | NE | GB | OAK | 49 | 7 | 78 |
Jason Wood | CAR | ARI | DAL | PIT | BUF | TEN | TB | DET | NYG | MIA | PHI | NE | GB | OAK | 43 | 7 | 85 |
John Mamula | NO | MIN | BAL | PIT | BUF | TEN | TB | JAC | NYG | MIA | PHI | NE | GB | OAK | 45 | 7 | 76 |
William Grant | NO | ARI | DAL | PIT | CIN | TEN | KC | JAC | NYG | MIA | SEA | NE | WAS | OAK | 46 | 7 | 72 |
Jeff Haseley | CAR | MIN | BAL | PIT | CIN | TEN | KC | DET | NYG | MIA | SEA | NE | WAS | HOU | 46 | 6 | 69 |
Mark Wimer | CAR | ARI | DAL | PIT | CIN | IND | KC | DET | NYG | LAR | SEA | NE | GB | OAK | 59 | 6 | 77 |
This week had two staff members (Andy Hicks, Keith Roberts) atop the standings, as both went 10-4 on the week. Andy edged Keith on the tiebreaker, with the Monday Night Football total coming in at 47 points (Andy with 49 was just closer than Keith with a total of 51). Four other staffers (Danny Tuccitto, Justin Howe, Matt Bitonti and James Brimacombe) were just off the pace with a 9-5 mark, and it should be pointed out that they did it with two teams on a bye, so that makes their records all the more impressive. The staff had their best week overall for the season, winning over 55% of their selections (179-143, 55.6%) and bringing the season-long record very close to breakeven (1,811-1,892, 48.9%). Keep in mind that a lot can happen in a day or two, and the picks are due on Wednesday night, so it is not surprising to see the group below the mark overall. Hopefully this is the week that will mark the turning point for the staff on the way to a winning path for the rest of the season.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | MIN | WAS | PIT | JAC | SD | NYG | ARI | TEN | LAR | SF | CIN | SEA | NE | CAR | KC | GB | |
Home Team: | DET | DAL | IND | BUF | HOU | CLE | ATL | CHI | NO | MIA | BAL | TB | NYJ | OAK | DEN | PHI | |
Favorite: | DET | DAL | PIT | BUF | HOU | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | MIA | BAL | SEA | NE | OAK | DEN | PHI | |
Point Spread: | -2.5 | -6.5 | -3.5 | -7.5 | -0.5 | -6.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -6.5 | -7.5 | -4.5 | -5.5 | -7.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | |||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | MIN | DAL | PIT | BUF | SD | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | MIA | BAL | SEA | NE | OAK | DEN | PHI | 53 |
Alessandro Miglio | DET | WAS | IND | JAC | HOU | CLE | ATL | TEN | LAR | SF | BAL | SEA | NE | OAK | DEN | PHI | 50 |
Andrew Garda | MIN | WAS | PIT | BUF | HOU | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | SF | BAL | TB | NE | OAK | DEN | PHI | 45 |
Andy Hicks | DET | DAL | IND | BUF | HOU | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | MIA | BAL | TB | NE | OAK | DEN | PHI | 55 |
Bear Heiser | MIN | WAS | PIT | BUF | SD | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | SF | CIN | SEA | NE | OAK | KC | GB | 42 |
Chris Feery | DET | DAL | PIT | BUF | SD | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | MIA | BAL | SEA | NE | OAK | DEN | PHI | 45 |
Chris Kuczynski | DET | DAL | PIT | BUF | SD | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | SF | BAL | SEA | NE | OAK | DEN | PHI | 42 |
Clayton Gray | DET | DAL | PIT | BUF | HOU | NYG | ATL | TEN | LAR | SF | BAL | SEA | NE | OAK | DEN | PHI | 51 |
Danny Tuccitto | DET | DAL | PIT | JAC | HOU | NYG | ARI | TEN | NO | SF | BAL | SEA | NE | CAR | KC | GB | 49 |
Dave Larkin | MIN | DAL | PIT | JAC | SD | NYG | ARI | TEN | NO | MIA | CIN | SEA | NE | CAR | DEN | GB | 48 |
James Brimacombe | DET | WAS | PIT | JAC | SD | CLE | ARI | TEN | NO | SF | CIN | SEA | NE | CAR | DEN | GB | 50 |
Jason Wood | DET | WAS | PIT | JAC | SD | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | MIA | CIN | SEA | NE | CAR | KC | PHI | 44 |
Jeff Haseley | DET | DAL | IND | BUF | HOU | NYG | ARI | CHI | NO | MIA | BAL | SEA | NE | OAK | DEN | PHI | 47 |
John Mamula | MIN | DAL | IND | JAC | SD | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | MIA | BAL | TB | NE | OAK | KC | PHI | 54 |
Justin Bonnema | DET | WAS | PIT | JAC | SD | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | SF | BAL | SEA | NE | OAK | DEN | GB | 49 |
Justin Howe | DET | DAL | PIT | JAC | HOU | NYG | ARI | TEN | NO | SF | BAL | TB | NYJ | CAR | KC | PHI | 48 |
Mark Wimer | MIN | DAL | PIT | BUF | HOU | NYG | ARI | TEN | NO | MIA | BAL | SEA | NE | OAK | KC | PHI | 48 |
Matt Bitonti | DET | WAS | PIT | BUF | SD | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | MIA | BAL | SEA | NE | OAK | DEN | PHI | 54 |
Phil Alexander | DET | DAL | PIT | BUF | SD | CLE | ATL | TEN | LAR | SF | BAL | SEA | NYJ | OAK | KC | GB | 50 |
William Grant | DET | WAS | PIT | BUF | HOU | NYG | ARI | TEN | NO | SF | BAL | SEA | NE | OAK | DEN | PHI | 44 |
Aaron Rudnicki | |||||||||||||||||
Devin Knotts | |||||||||||||||||
Keith Roberts |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
With about two-thirds of the season now behind us, we should be getting closer to some collective understanding as to which teams are good and which are bad. Of course, the point spread is the great equalizer, and Las Vegas does their job quite well - but the website we use to log our picks had some difficulties with line movements. Pittsburgh was listed as just a 3.5-point favorite, and with news that Andrew Luck is likely to miss the game, the line has moved 4-6 points, making the Steelers a favorite by more than a touchdown. That certainly explains the steelers getting 16 of 20 votes this week (note, we have three sets of picks yet to arrive on a short week). Tennessee was nearly a unanimous choice, but the line has the Titans only favored by 3.5-points as well. That is close to what Las Vegas has it at now (4.5 to 5 points), which just goes to show how little value Jay Cutler really adds in the minds of sportsbooks. Six road teams were majority choices this week, led by New England with 18 picks as they visit the Jets on Sunday. That clearly is not much of a vote of confidence in Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Giants (17) and Saints (17) tied for third-most common pick, while the Steelers, Ravens and Seahawks all had 16 selections. Favorites dominated the choices after these, with seven home favorites getting the call. Oakland (15) led the way, followed by Detroit (14), Philadelphia (14), Atlanta (13), Denver (13), Dallas (12) and Buffalo (12). Two road teams closed out the picks with very slight majorities, as the staff thinks the 49ers (11 picks) can cover the 7.5-point margin in Miami while San Diego was chosen 11 times as barely an underdog (+0.5). Week 12 looks to be yet another interesting week, so let's see how it all plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
We are getting close to the midpoint of the season, and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.