Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (23) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | TEN | STL | INDY | WASH | NYJ | TB | OAK | DAL | DEN | KC | SF | GB | CIN | BUF | ||||
Home Team: | JAX | BAL | ATL | CAR | HOU | PHI | DET | MIA | CHI | SD | SEA | MIN | AZ | NE | ||||
Favorite: | JAX | BAL | ATL | CAR | NYJ | PHI | OAK | DAL | DEN | KC | SEA | MIN | AZ | NE | ||||
Point Spread: | -3.5 | -1.5 | -6.5 | -7.5 | -2.5 | -6.5 | -2.5 | -0.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -11.5 | -0.5 | -2.5 | -7.5 | ||||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | YtD | Win% | |||||||||||||
William Grant | JAX | BAL | INDY | CAR | NYJ | TB | OAK | DAL | CHI | KC | SF | GB | AZ | BUF | 44 | 11 | 85 | 53.1% |
Alessandro Miglio | JAX | BAL | INDY | WASH | HOU | TB | DET | MIA | CHI | SD | SEA | MIN | AZ | NE | 51 | 9 | 80 | 50.0% |
Bear Heiser | JAX | BAL | INDY | WASH | NYJ | TB | DET | MIA | CHI | SD | SEA | GB | AZ | NE | 54 | 9 | 82 | 51.2% |
Dan Hindery | JAX | BAL | ATL | WASH | HOU | TB | OAK | DAL | CHI | KC | SF | MIN | AZ | BUF | 47 | 9 | 72 | 45.0% |
Phil Alexander | TEN | BAL | ATL | CAR | HOU | TB | OAK | DAL | CHI | SD | SEA | GB | AZ | NE | 45 | 9 | 88 | 55.0% |
Aaron Rudnicki | TEN | BAL | INDY | WASH | NYJ | TB | OAK | MIA | CHI | SD | SEA | GB | AZ | BUF | 46 | 8 | 82 | 51.2% |
Clayton Gray | JAX | STL | ATL | CAR | HOU | TB | OAK | DAL | CHI | SD | SEA | MIN | AZ | NE | 51 | 8 | 83 | 51.8% |
James Brimacombe | JAX | BAL | INDY | WASH | HOU | PHI | DET | MIA | DEN | SD | SEA | GB | AZ | NE | 52 | 8 | 72 | 45.0% |
Jeff Haseley | JAX | BAL | INDY | CAR | HOU | PHI | DET | MIA | DEN | SD | SEA | MIN | AZ | NE | 49 | 8 | 77 | 48.1% |
Justin Howe | TEN | STL | INDY | CAR | NYJ | TB | DET | DAL | DEN | SD | SEA | GB | AZ | NE | 48 | 8 | 92 | 57.5% |
Andrew Garda | JAX | STL | ATL | CAR | NYJ | TB | OAK | DAL | CHI | KC | SF | MIN | AZ | NE | 47 | 7 | 78 | 48.7% |
Jason Wood | JAX | STL | ATL | WASH | NYJ | TB | OAK | DAL | CHI | KC | SF | GB | AZ | NE | 48 | 7 | 90 | 56.2% |
John Lee | JAX | BAL | INDY | WASH | NYJ | TB | OAK | MIA | DEN | SD | SEA | GB | AZ | NE | 48 | 7 | 88 | 55.0% |
Matt Bitonti | JAX | BAL | ATL | CAR | NYJ | TB | OAK | DAL | CHI | KC | SF | MIN | CIN | NE | 65 | 7 | 83 | 51.8% |
Steve Holloway | JAX | STL | ATL | CAR | HOU | PHI | DET | DAL | DEN | SD | SF | GB | AZ | NE | 44 | 7 | 70 | 43.7% |
Jeff Pasquino | JAX | STL | ATL | CAR | NYJ | PHI | OAK | DAL | DEN | KC | SEA | MIN | AZ | NE | 51 | 6 | 79 | 49.3% |
Danny Tuccitto | TEN | BAL | INDY | WASH | NYJ | TB | OAK | DAL | DEN | SD | SEA | MIN | AZ | NE | 49 | 6 | 83 | 51.8% |
Dave Larkin | JAX | BAL | INDY | WASH | NYJ | TB | DET | MIA | DEN | SD | SF | MIN | CIN | BUF | 48 | 6 | 82 | 51.2% |
Maurile Tremblay | TEN | STL | ATL | CAR | NYJ | TB | OAK | MIA | DEN | KC | SEA | MIN | AZ | BUF | 44 | 6 | 85 | 53.1% |
Chris Feery | TEN | STL | ATL | WASH | NYJ | TB | OAK | DAL | CHI | KC | SF | GB | CIN | NE | 48 | 5 | 76 | 47.5% |
Justin Bonnema | JAX | STL | ATL | WASH | NYJ | PHI | OAK | DAL | CHI | SD | SF | GB | AZ | NE | 58 | 5 | 88 | 55.0% |
Mark Wimer | JAX | STL | ATL | CAR | NYJ | PHI | OAK | MIA | DEN | SD | SEA | GB | AZ | NE | 66 | 5 | 82 | 51.2% |
Andy Hicks | JAX | STL | INDY | WASH | NYJ | PHI | OAK | MIA | CHI | SD | SEA | MIN | CIN | NE | 59 | 4 | 86 | 53.7% |
Will Grant pulled out his first victory this year will 11 out of 14 right, beating the field by a good margin of two picks. The staff did very well overall with most everyone getting at least seven games right and over half getting eight or more. That resulted in a solid Week 12 showing on another challenging weekend. The entire group finished eight games above .500 (165-157, 51.2%). The good results kept the staff above 50% correct picks for the year at 1,883-1,797 (51.2%), which is not quite enough for the entire staff to be beating Las Vegas. Here's hoping that the winning ways continue for Week 13.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | PHI | CAR | CHI | STL | MIN | SD | OAK | NO | MIA | BUF | NYG | TB | AZ | PIT | NE | BAL | |
Home Team: | DET | DAL | GB | CIN | ATL | JAC | TEN | HOU | NYJ | KC | WASH | IND | SF | SEA | DEN | CLE | |
Favorite: | PHI | CAR | GB | CIN | ATL | JAC | OAK | HOU | NYJ | KC | NYG | IND | AZ | SEA | NE | CLE | |
Point Spread: | -1.5 | -1.5 | -9.5 | -8.5 | -2.5 | -4.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -4.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -10.5 | -4.5 | -5.5 | -2.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | |||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | DET | CAR | GB | CIN | MIN | JAC | OAK | NO | NYJ | KC | NYG | TB | AZ | PIT | DEN | CLE | 41 |
Aaron Rudnicki | DET | CAR | GB | CIN | MIN | JAC | OAK | HOU | NYJ | BUF | NYG | IND | AZ | PIT | DEN | CLE | 40 |
Alessandro Miglio | DET | CAR | CHI | STL | ATL | JAC | OAK | HOU | NYJ | KC | WASH | IND | SF | PIT | NE | CLE | 41 |
Andrew Garda | DET | CAR | GB | CIN | MIN | SD | OAK | NO | NYJ | KC | NYG | TB | AZ | SEA | NE | CLE | 21 |
Andy Hicks | PHI | CAR | CHI | STL | MIN | SD | OAK | HOU | NYJ | KC | NYG | TB | AZ | SEA | NE | BAL | 41 |
Bear Heiser | DET | CAR | CHI | CIN | MIN | JAC | OAK | NO | MIA | KC | NYG | TB | AZ | PIT | NE | BAL | 36 |
Chris Feery | DET | DAL | CHI | CIN | MIN | JAC | OAK | NO | NYJ | KC | NYG | IND | AZ | PIT | NE | CLE | 40 |
Clayton Gray | DET | DAL | GB | CIN | ATL | JAC | OAK | HOU | NYJ | KC | NYG | TB | AZ | PIT | DEN | CLE | 45 |
Dan Hindery | DET | CAR | CHI | CIN | ATL | JAC | OAK | HOU | MIA | BUF | NYG | IND | AZ | PIT | DEN | BAL | 48 |
Danny Tuccitto | DET | DAL | GB | CIN | ATL | SD | OAK | NO | MIA | BUF | NYG | TB | SF | PIT | NE | CLE | 49 |
Dave Larkin | PHI | DAL | GB | CIN | MIN | SD | OAK | HOU | NYJ | BUF | WASH | TB | SF | PIT | DEN | CLE | 38 |
James Brimacombe | DET | CAR | GB | CIN | ATL | SD | OAK | NO | MIA | KC | WASH | TB | AZ | PIT | DEN | BAL | 50 |
Jason Wood | DET | CAR | CHI | CIN | MIN | JAC | OAK | HOU | MIA | KC | NYG | TB | AZ | PIT | NE | CLE | 41 |
Jeff Haseley | PHI | CAR | CHI | STL | MIN | JAC | TEN | NO | NYJ | KC | WASH | IND | AZ | PIT | DEN | CLE | 43 |
John Lee | DET | DAL | CHI | CIN | ATL | JAC | OAK | HOU | NYJ | BUF | NYG | TB | SF | PIT | DEN | CLE | 40 |
Justin Bonnema | DET | CAR | GB | CIN | MIN | SD | OAK | NO | NYJ | KC | NYG | TB | AZ | PIT | NE | CLE | 46 |
Justin Howe | DET | DAL | CHI | STL | ATL | SD | OAK | NO | NYJ | KC | NYG | TB | SF | SEA | NE | CLE | 41 |
Mark Wimer | PHI | CAR | GB | STL | ATL | JAC | OAK | HOU | NYJ | BUF | NYG | IND | AZ | SEA | DEN | CLE | 562 |
Matt Bitonti | DET | CAR | CHI | CIN | ATL | JAC | OAK | NO | NYJ | KC | NYG | TB | AZ | PIT | NE | CLE | 48 |
Phil Alexander | PHI | DAL | GB | CIN | ATL | SD | TEN | NO | NYJ | KC | NYG | TB | AZ | PIT | DEN | CLE | 40 |
Steve Holloway | DET | DAL | GB | CIN | MIN | JAC | TEN | HOU | NYJ | KC | NYG | IND | AZ | SEA | NE | CLE | 34 |
William Grant | DET | CAR | CHI | CIN | ATL | JAC | OAK | HOU | NYJ | KC | NYG | TB | AZ | PIT | NE | BAL | 41 |
Maurile Tremblay | DET | CAR | CHI | CIN | ATL | JAC | OAK | HOU | NYJ | KC | NYG | TB | AZ | PIT | NE | BAL | 44 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
Most of the season is now behind us, and we are getting closer to our first consensus pick. Once again, we did not have a full consensus, but Oakland (20) and the Giants (19) had a large amount of the staff on their side. Five teams were also selected 18 times (Detroit, Cincinnati, Arizona, Seattle and the Jets) which also includes our biggest upset picks in the Lions at home on Thanksgiving and also the Steelers in Seattle. Five more picks were heavily selected with Kansas City and Cleveland each picked 17 times, followed by another upset pick in the Buccaneers (16), then two more teams at 15 (Carolina, Jacksonville). Las Vegas would love these sets of picks with three games nearly dead even (Houston / New Orleans, Green Bay / Chicago and Atlanta / Minnesota) as the choices were split almost exactly in half for these contests. It should be very interesting to see how it plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
We are getting deeper into the season so we should know more, but picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 52.3% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.