Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (22) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored in the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from this week.
|Point Spread:||-5.5||-2.5||-10.5||-11.5||-4.5||-4.5||-2.5||-1.5||-5.5||-11.5||-0.5||-2.5||-7.5||-9.5||MNF||Last||Year to|
|Staffer||Last Week's Picks||Tot Pts||Week||Date|
Week 10 was not so hot for the staff, as several upsets took place this past weekend. Unexpected performances by Tampa Bay (16 losses for the staff), Green Bay (14) and the Chargers (17) hurt the staff overall, but the group was able to eek out a winning record - albeit just barely (155-153). That raised the group just slightly for the year to 26 games over 50% (1,630-1,582, 50.7%). For Week 10, three staffers Aaron Rudnicki, James Brimacombe and myself) tied with nine victories, so it all came down to the total score for Monday Night Football. With all of our guesses different but packed in tightly (I had 44, James 43, Aaron 45) I knew I was pretty much out of luck - but we were all well under the total score of 45-21. Had we been guessing just the Carolina score that would have been much more impressive, but Aaron wins Week 10. Now let's turn our attention to Week 11:
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week.
|Staffer||The Picks||Tot Pts|
All but two sets of picks are in as of late Wednesday night, , and one team is pretty close to a consensus pick, as Detroit received all but two votes (18 of 20) to go to Chicago and come out with a win by at least three points. Is Las Vegas that far off? It would appear so, but Vegas has built some pretty large buildings by beating the public's majority opinion. Two teams received 16 votes (Seattle at home against Atlanta, Philadelphia at Dallas) with our first of four road teams appearing on this list. The Eagles are coming off of a bye and looking like they are catching Dallas at just the right time, with the Cowboys lacking Ezekiel Elliott and also struggling to protect Dak Prescott. Two more teams received 15 votes, with nearly both as road teams (Jacksonville at Cleveland, New England "at" Oakland). The Patriots face the Raiders in Mexico City this week, and while New England is designated as the road team, both franchises should see plenty of support as the NFL wraps up their International Series for this year. Kansas City wraps up our top majority teams with 14 of 20 votes as the Chiefs head to New Jersey to take on the Giants. Four teams recieved 13 votes (Minnesota, Green Bay, Denver and the Chargers) - and all four are home favorites. The same can be said for all but one of our final four teams with minor majority picks - Pittsburgh (12), Miami (12), Arizona (11) and New Orleans. Only the Cardinals are taking a trip away from home as Arizona heads to Houston. Once again, Week 9 has all the makings of yet another very interesting week in the NFL and for the staff picks.
ODDS AND ENDS
We are more than halfway through the regular season - 146 of 256 games have been played (57%) - and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to email@example.com