Against The Spread Pool: Week 11

Footballguys.com Staff Pick NFL Games Against the Las Vegas Point Spread

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread.  Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (22) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line.  As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored in the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.   

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from this week.

Road Team: SEA NO PIT CLE LAC GB NYJ MIN CIN HOU NYG DAL NE MIA      
Home Team: ARI BUF IND DET JAC CHI TB WAS TEN LAR SF ATL DEN CAR      
Favorite: SEA NO PIT DET JAC CHI NYJ MIN TEN LAR SF ATL NE CAR      
Point Spread: -5.5 -2.5 -10.5 -11.5 -4.5 -4.5 -2.5 -1.5 -5.5 -11.5 -0.5 -2.5 -7.5 -9.5 MNF Last Year to
Staffer Last Week's Picks Tot Pts Week Date
Jeff Pasquino SEA NO PIT DET JAC CHI TB MIN TEN LAR SF DAL NE CAR 44 9 74
Aaron Rudnicki SEA NO PIT DET LAC GB NYJ MIN TEN LAR NYG ATL NE MIA 45 9 77
James Brimacombe SEA NO PIT DET LAC GB TB MIN CIN HOU NYG ATL DEN MIA 43 9 71
Andrew Garda SEA NO PIT DET JAC CHI NYJ MIN TEN LAR SF DAL NE CAR 45 8 73
Dave Larkin SEA BUF IND DET LAC GB TB WAS CIN HOU NYG DAL NE MIA 44 8 78
Devin Knotts SEA BUF IND CLE JAC GB NYJ MIN CIN HOU SF ATL DEN CAR 44 8 78
Justin Bonnema SEA NO IND CLE LAC GB TB WAS TEN LAR NYG DAL NE MIA 48 8 76
Matt Bitonti SEA NO IND DET JAC CHI NYJ WAS CIN LAR SF DAL NE MIA 46 8 86
Phil Alexander ARI BUF IND DET LAC GB NYJ WAS CIN LAR NYG ATL NE MIA 45 8 78
William Grant SEA NO PIT DET JAC CHI NYJ MIN TEN LAR NYG ATL NE CAR 44 8 75
Alessandro Miglio ARI NO IND CLE JAC CHI TB WAS CIN HOU SF ATL NE MIA 44 7 69
Bear Heiser SEA NO PIT DET JAC CHI NYJ WAS TEN LAR SF DAL NE CAR 38 7 77
Jason Wood SEA NO IND CLE JAC GB NYJ MIN TEN HOU SF DAL NE MIA 42 7 75
Mark Wimer ARI BUF PIT DET JAC CHI NYJ MIN TEN LAR SF ATL NE CAR 44 7 76
Stephen Holloway SEA NO IND DET JAC CHI NYJ WAS TEN LAR NYG DAL NE CAR 37 7 72
Andy Hicks ARI BUF IND CLE JAC CHI TB WAS CIN LAR SF ATL DEN MIA 41 6 70
Jeff Haseley ARI BUF IND DET JAC CHI NYJ WAS TEN LAR NYG ATL NE CAR 42 6 67
John Mamula SEA NO PIT CLE JAC CHI NYJ MIN CIN LAR NYG DAL NE MIA 41 6 73
Keith Roberts SEA BUF PIT DET JAC CHI NYJ WAS TEN LAR NYG ATL NE CAR 49 6 72
Danny Tuccitto ARI BUF IND DET JAC CHI NYJ WAS CIN LAR SF DAL DEN MIA 49 5 78
Chris Feery ARI BUF PIT DET JAC GB NYJ WAS CIN HOU NYG ATL DEN MIA 41 4 70
Justin Howe ARI BUF IND CLE JAC CHI NYJ WAS CIN LAR NYG ATL DEN MIA 40 4 65

Week 10 was not so hot for the staff, as several upsets took place this past weekend.  Unexpected performances by Tampa Bay (16 losses for the staff), Green Bay (14) and the Chargers (17) hurt the staff overall, but the group was able to eek out a winning record - albeit just barely (155-153).  That raised the group just slightly for the year to 26 games over 50% (1,630-1,582, 50.7%).  For Week 10, three staffers Aaron Rudnicki, James Brimacombe and myself) tied with nine victories, so it all came down to the total score for Monday Night Football.  With all of our guesses different but packed in tightly (I had 44, James 43, Aaron 45) I knew I was pretty much out of luck - but we were all well under the total score of 45-21.  Had we been guessing just the Carolina score that would have been much more impressive, but Aaron wins Week 10.    Now let's turn our attention to Week 11:

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

Road Team: TEN JAC TB ARI WAS KC LAR BAL DET BUF CIN NE PHI ATL  
Home Team: PIT CLE MIA HOU NO NYG MIN GB CHI LAC DEN OAK DAL SEA  
Favorite: PIT JAC MIA ARI NO KC MIN BAL DET LAC DEN NE PHI SEA  
Point Spread: -6.5 -7.5 -2.5 -1.5 -7.5 -10.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -3.5 -2.5 -6.5 -3.5 -2.5 MNF
Staffer The Picks Tot Pts
Jeff Pasquino TEN JAC TB ARI NO KC LAR GB DET LAC CIN NE PHI SEA 47
Aaron Rudnicki TEN CLE TB ARI WAS KC MIN BAL DET LAC CIN NE PHI SEA 44
Alessandro Miglio PIT JAC MIA HOU WAS NYG MIN GB CHI LAC DEN NE DAL SEA 51
Andrew Garda PIT JAC MIA ARI WAS KC MIN GB DET LAC DEN NE PHI SEA 47
Andy Hicks TEN JAC MIA ARI WAS NYG LAR GB DET BUF CIN OAK DAL ATL 51
Chris Feery TEN CLE MIA HOU WAS KC MIN GB DET BUF DEN NE PHI ATL 48
Danny Tuccitto PIT JAC MIA HOU NO KC MIN BAL DET LAC DEN NE PHI SEA 49
Dave Larkin PIT CLE TB ARI WAS NYG MIN GB CHI LAC DEN NE DAL SEA 41
Devin Knotts PIT JAC MIA ARI NO NYG LAR GB DET LAC CIN NE DAL SEA 47
James Brimacombe PIT JAC MIA HOU NO KC MIN GB DET LAC DEN OAK PHI ATL 44
Jason Wood TEN JAC TB ARI NO KC MIN BAL DET BUF DEN NE PHI SEA 47
Jeff Haseley PIT JAC TB HOU NO KC MIN GB DET LAC DEN NE PHI SEA 46
John Mamula TEN JAC MIA HOU WAS KC MIN BAL DET BUF DEN NE PHI SEA 47
Justin Bonnema TEN JAC TB ARI NO NYG LAR GB DET LAC CIN OAK PHI SEA 49
Justin Howe PIT CLE MIA HOU WAS NYG MIN BAL DET BUF CIN OAK PHI SEA 45
Mark Wimer PIT JAC TB ARI NO KC MIN BAL DET LAC CIN OAK PHI ATL 51
Matt Bitonti TEN JAC TB HOU NO KC LAR BAL DET BUF CIN NE PHI SEA 53
Phil Alexander PIT CLE MIA HOU WAS KC MIN GB DET LAC CIN NE PHI SEA 50
Stephen Holloway PIT JAC MIA ARI NO KC LAR GB DET LAC DEN NE PHI SEA 51
William Grant PIT JAC MIA ARI NO KC LAR GB DET BUF DEN NE PHI SEA 42
Bear Heiser                              
Keith Roberts                              

CONSENSUS WINNERS

All but two sets of picks are in as of late Wednesday night, , and one team is pretty close to a consensus pick, as Detroit received all but two votes (18 of 20) to go to Chicago and come out with a win by at least three points.  Is Las Vegas that far off?  It would appear so, but Vegas has built some pretty large buildings by beating the public's majority opinion.  Two teams received 16 votes (Seattle at home against Atlanta, Philadelphia at Dallas) with our first of four road teams appearing on this list.  The Eagles are coming off of a bye and looking like they are catching Dallas at just the right time, with the Cowboys lacking Ezekiel Elliott and also struggling to protect Dak Prescott.  Two more teams received 15 votes, with nearly both as road teams (Jacksonville at Cleveland, New England "at" Oakland).  The Patriots face the Raiders in Mexico City this week, and while New England is designated as the road team, both franchises should see plenty of support as the NFL wraps up their International Series for this year.  Kansas City wraps up our top majority teams with 14 of 20 votes as the Chiefs head to New Jersey to take on the Giants.  Four teams recieved 13 votes (Minnesota, Green Bay, Denver and the Chargers) - and all four are home favorites.  The same can be said for all but one of our final four teams with minor majority picks - Pittsburgh (12), Miami (12), Arizona (11) and New Orleans. Only the Cardinals are taking a trip away from home as Arizona heads to Houston.  Once again, Week 9 has all the makings of yet another very interesting week in the NFL and for the staff picks.


ODDS AND ENDS

We are more than halfway through the regular season - 146 of 256 games have been played (57%) - and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding.  That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com


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