Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (23) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | ATL | DAL | PHI | PIT | NYJ | DET | JAC | CAR | NO | TEN | IND | DEN | BUF | |||
Home Team: | TB | CLE | NYG | PIT | MIA | MIN | KC | LAR | SF | SD | GB | OAK | SEA | |||
Favorite: | ATL | DAL | NYG | PIT | MIA | MIN | KC | CAR | NO | SD | GB | OAK | SEA | |||
Point Spread: | -3.5 | -7.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -6.5 | -8.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -5.5 | -6.5 | -0.5 | -6.5 | |||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | YtD | ||||||||||||
Alessandro Miglio | ATL | DAL | NYG | PIT | MIA | DET | JAC | CAR | NO | TEN | IND | OAK | SEA | 44 | 10 | 60 |
Jason Wood | ATL | CLE | PHI | PIT | MIA | DET | JAC | CAR | NO | SD | IND | OAK | SEA | 37 | 9 | 70 |
Justin Bonnema | ATL | DAL | NYG | PIT | MIA | DET | JAC | CAR | NO | TEN | GB | OAK | SEA | 48 | 9 | 63 |
Bear Heiser | TB | DAL | NYG | PIT | MIA | DET | JAC | CAR | NO | TEN | GB | OAK | SEA | 32 | 8 | 67 |
Chris Kuczynski | ATL | DAL | NYG | PIT | MIA | DET | KC | CAR | NO | TEN | GB | OAK | SEA | 30 | 8 | 63 |
Clayton Gray | ATL | DAL | NYG | PIT | MIA | DET | KC | LAR | NO | SD | GB | OAK | SEA | 38 | 8 | 67 |
Devin Knotts | ATL | DAL | NYG | PIT | MIA | DET | KC | LAR | NO | SD | GB | OAK | SEA | 43 | 8 | 65 |
John Mamula | ATL | CLE | NYG | PIT | MIA | MIN | JAC | CAR | NO | TEN | IND | OAK | SEA | 38 | 8 | 65 |
Keith Roberts | ATL | DAL | PHI | BAL | NYJ | DET | JAC | CAR | NO | TEN | GB | DEN | BUF | 41 | 8 | 63 |
Matt Bitonti | ATL | DAL | NYG | PIT | NYJ | DET | JAC | CAR | NO | TEN | GB | OAK | SEA | 46 | 8 | 63 |
Phil Alexander | ATL | DAL | NYG | BAL | NYJ | DET | JAC | LAR | NO | SD | GB | DEN | SEA | 35 | 8 | 69 |
William Grant | ATL | DAL | PHI | PIT | MIA | DET | KC | CAR | NO | SD | GB | OAK | SEA | 42 | 8 | 60 |
Andrew Garda | ATL | DAL | PHI | PIT | MIA | DET | KC | CAR | NO | SD | GB | DEN | SEA | 45 | 7 | 64 |
Andy Hicks | TB | CLE | NYG | BAL | NYJ | DET | JAC | LAR | SF | SD | GB | OAK | BUF | 37 | 7 | 63 |
Chris Feery | ATL | DAL | NYG | PIT | NYJ | DET | KC | CAR | NO | TEN | GB | OAK | SEA | 42 | 7 | 66 |
Jeff Haseley | ATL | DAL | PHI | BAL | NYJ | DET | JAC | CAR | SF | SD | GB | DEN | SEA | 46 | 7 | 56 |
Justin Howe | TB | DAL | NYG | BAL | NYJ | DET | JAC | CAR | SF | TEN | GB | DEN | BUF | 45 | 7 | 75 |
Jeff Pasquino | ATL | DAL | PHI | PIT | MIA | MIN | KC | CAR | NO | SD | GB | DEN | SEA | 33 | 6 | 64 |
Aaron Rudnicki | TB | CLE | NYG | BAL | NYJ | DET | KC | CAR | NO | TEN | IND | DEN | SEA | 40 | 6 | 66 |
James Brimacombe | TB | CLE | PHI | PIT | NYJ | DET | JAC | CAR | NO | SD | IND | DEN | SEA | 47 | 6 | 72 |
Dave Larkin | ATL | DAL | PHI | BAL | NYJ | MIN | JAC | LAR | NO | TEN | GB | DEN | SEA | 38 | 5 | 66 |
Mark Wimer | ATL | DAL | PHI | PIT | MIA | MIN | KC | LAR | NO | TEN | GB | DEN | SEA | 37 | 4 | 67 |
Danny Tuccitto | TB | CLE | NYG | PIT | NYJ | MIN | KC | CAR | SF | SD | GB | DEN | SEA | 49 | 3 | 69 |
This week had just one staff member (Alex Miglio) atop the standings, as he went 10-3 on the week. Two other staffers (Jason Wood, Justin Bonnema) were one step behind at 9-4, and it should be pointed out that they did it with six teams on a bye, so that makes their records all the more impressive. The staff overall had another strong week, a rough showing again, with only six staffers finishing with a losing record in Week 9. That good showing for the group was the best on the season (165-134, 55.2%) and helped rais the group average closer to breakeven (1,503-1,556, 49.1%). Keep in mind that a lot can happen in a day or two, and the picks are due on Wednesday night, so it is not surprising to see the group below the mark overall. Hopefully this is the week that will mark the turning point for the staff on the way to a winning path for the rest of the season.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | CLE | MIN | DEN | HOU | LAR | CHI | GB | KC | ATL | MIA | SF | DAL | SEA | CIN | |
Home Team: | BAL | WAS | NO | JAC | NYJ | TB | TEN | CAR | PHI | SD | ARI | PIT | NE | NYG | |
Favorite: | BAL | WAS | NO | HOU | NYJ | TB | GB | CAR | PHI | SD | ARI | PIT | NE | NYG | |
Point Spread: | -9.5 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -0.5 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -0.5 | -3.5 | -13.5 | -2.5 | -7.5 | -2.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | |||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | BAL | MIN | DEN | JAC | NYJ | CHI | TEN | KC | PHI | SD | ARI | DAL | NE | CIN | 47 |
Aaron Rudnicki | CLE | WAS | NO | HOU | NYJ | CHI | GB | CAR | ATL | MIA | ARI | PIT | SEA | NYG | 46 |
Alessandro Miglio | CLE | WAS | NO | JAC | NYJ | TB | GB | CAR | PHI | SD | SF | DAL | SEA | NYG | 48 |
Andy Hicks | CLE | WAS | NO | JAC | NYJ | TB | TEN | KC | PHI | SD | SF | DAL | SEA | NYG | 53 |
Bear Heiser | CLE | WAS | NO | JAC | NYJ | CHI | GB | CAR | ATL | SD | SF | DAL | SEA | NYG | 42 |
Chris Feery | CLE | MIN | NO | HOU | NYJ | TB | GB | CAR | ATL | SD | ARI | DAL | NE | NYG | 45 |
Chris Kuczynski | BAL | WAS | DEN | HOU | LAR | TB | GB | CAR | ATL | SD | SF | DAL | NE | NYG | 41 |
Clayton Gray | CLE | WAS | NO | HOU | NYJ | TB | GB | CAR | ATL | SD | ARI | DAL | SEA | NYG | 51 |
Dave Larkin | CLE | MIN | DEN | HOU | NYJ | CHI | GB | CAR | ATL | SD | ARI | PIT | SEA | NYG | 45 |
James Brimacombe | CLE | MIN | NO | HOU | NYJ | CHI | GB | CAR | PHI | MIA | ARI | PIT | SEA | CIN | 52 |
Jason Wood | CLE | MIN | NO | HOU | LAR | TB | GB | CAR | PHI | MIA | SF | DAL | NE | CIN | 53 |
Jeff Haseley | CLE | WAS | NO | HOU | NYJ | CHI | TEN | CAR | ATL | MIA | SF | DAL | SEA | CIN | 46 |
John Mamula | CLE | MIN | NO | HOU | NYJ | TB | GB | CAR | ATL | SD | SF | DAL | NE | NYG | 45 |
Justin Howe | CLE | MIN | NO | HOU | NYJ | CHI | GB | KC | PHI | SD | ARI | PIT | SEA | NYG | 48 |
Keith Roberts | CLE | WAS | NO | HOU | NYJ | CHI | TEN | CAR | ATL | MIA | ARI | DAL | SEA | NYG | 51 |
Mark Wimer | CLE | WAS | NO | HOU | NYJ | CHI | GB | CAR | ATL | MIA | ARI | DAL | NE | NYG | 49 |
Matt Bitonti | CLE | WAS | NO | HOU | NYJ | CHI | GB | KC | ATL | SD | SF | DAL | NE | NYG | 52 |
Phil Alexander | BAL | MIN | DEN | HOU | LAR | CHI | GB | CAR | PHI | MIA | SF | PIT | SEA | CIN | 47 |
William Grant | CLE | WAS | NO | HOU | NYJ | TB | GB | KC | ATL | SD | ARI | DAL | NE | NYG | 46 |
Andrew Garda | BAL | WAS | DEN | HOU | NYJ | TB | GB | KC | ATL | SD | ARI | DAL | NE | NYG | 40 |
Danny Tuccitto | BAL | WAS | NO | HOU | NYJ | TB | GB | CAR | PHI | MIA | ARI | PIT | SEA | NYG | 47 |
Justin Bonnema | CLE | WAS | NO | JAC | NYJ | TB | GB | CAR | ATL | SD | ARI | PIT | SEA | CIN | 48 |
Devin Knotts | BAL | WAS | NO | JAC | LAR | TB | GB | CAR | PHI | SD | SF | PIT | NE | NYG | 48 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
We're at the midway point of the regular season, but we still have a large disparity with our 23 staffers making their weekly selections. The most common choices this week were the Jets (19 of 23 picks) hosting the Rams and also Green Bay on the road at Tennessee. Personally, I think that's a big misstep as the Titans are doing way better than expected and the Packers are underperforming, but I guess we shall see. New Orleans comes in next with 18 picks as the Saints host Denver (also a tough choice) in what could be another shootout in the Big Easy. Four teams come in with 17 choices - two favorites (Carolina vs. Kansas City and the Giants hosting the Bengals) and two road teams (Cleveland at Baltimore, Houston at Jacksonville). Once again, allow me to interject here as I think all four of these are not simple selections. The Ravens are double digit favorites, but the point spread has not come into play very much this season (in most NFL seasons, the point spread only factors in about 15-18% of the time - and it is even lower this year based on the math I've done - 13 covers and only four ties, so 13%). Jacksonville just changed offensive coordinators, and Kansas City and the Bengals both look like upset potentials to me. Three other picks come in with 15 selections (Washington, San Diego and Dallas), with the Cowboys as one of four underdog majority picks (Dallas, Cleveland, Atlanta and Seattle). Six road teams were also picked this week (Green Bay, Cleveland, Houston, Dallas, Atlanta and Seattle). The remaining choices are close to 50/50 selections with Atlanta (14), Arizona (13), Seattle (13) and Tampa Bay (12) the slim majority picks. This should be a very interesting Week 10 set of contests.
ODDS AND ENDS
We are at the midpoint of the season, and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.