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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (22) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored in the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from this week.
Road Team: | MIA | MIN | CAR | CHI | ATL | SF | IND | OAK | LAC | HOU | DAL | PIT | DEN | |||
Home Team: | BAL | CLE | TB | NO | NYJ | PHI | CIN | BUF | NE | SEA | WAS | DET | KC | |||
Favorite: | BAL | MIN | TB | NO | ATL | PHI | CIN | BUF | NE | SEA | DAL | PIT | KC | |||
Point Spread: | -3.5 | -9.5 | -2.5 | -8.5 | -4.5 | -12.5 | -9.5 | -2.5 | -7.5 | -5.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -7.5 | MNF | Last | Year to |
Staffer | Last Week's Picks | Tot Pts | Week | Date | ||||||||||||
Matt Bitonti | MIA | MIN | TB | CHI | ATL | PHI | CIN | BUF | NE | HOU | DAL | PIT | KC | 45 | 10 | 69 |
Andrew Garda | MIA | MIN | TB | CHI | ATL | PHI | IND | OAK | NE | SEA | DAL | PIT | KC | 45 | 9 | 57 |
Jeff Pasquino | MIA | MIN | CAR | NO | NYJ | PHI | IND | BUF | LAC | SEA | DAL | PIT | KC | 41 | 8 | 59 |
Bear Heiser | MIA | MIN | CAR | NO | ATL | PHI | IND | OAK | NE | HOU | WAS | DET | KC | 48 | 8 | 63 |
Chris Feery | MIA | MIN | CAR | CHI | ATL | PHI | CIN | BUF | LAC | SEA | WAS | PIT | DEN | 45 | 7 | 57 |
Danny Tuccitto | MIA | MIN | CAR | NO | NYJ | PHI | CIN | BUF | NE | HOU | WAS | DET | KC | 49 | 7 | 67 |
Jason Wood | MIA | MIN | CAR | CHI | ATL | SF | IND | OAK | NE | SEA | DAL | DET | DEN | 44 | 7 | 60 |
Jeff Haseley | MIA | MIN | CAR | NO | NYJ | PHI | IND | BUF | NE | SEA | WAS | DET | KC | 43 | 7 | 55 |
Mark Wimer | MIA | MIN | TB | NO | ATL | PHI | CIN | OAK | NE | SEA | DAL | PIT | KC | 35 | 7 | 61 |
Phil Alexander | BAL | MIN | CAR | NO | ATL | PHI | IND | OAK | LAC | SEA | WAS | DET | KC | 42 | 7 | 62 |
William Grant | MIA | CLE | TB | CHI | ATL | PHI | IND | OAK | NE | HOU | WAS | PIT | DEN | 41 | 7 | 61 |
Aaron Rudnicki | MIA | MIN | TB | NO | ATL | SF | CIN | BUF | LAC | HOU | DAL | PIT | DEN | 44 | 6 | 60 |
James Brimacombe | MIA | MIN | CAR | NO | ATL | PHI | CIN | OAK | NE | SEA | DAL | DET | DEN | 44 | 6 | 57 |
John Mamula | MIA | CLE | TB | NO | NYJ | PHI | CIN | BUF | NE | HOU | DAL | PIT | DEN | 48 | 6 | 60 |
Justin Bonnema | BAL | MIN | TB | NO | ATL | SF | IND | BUF | LAC | SEA | DAL | DET | DEN | 48 | 6 | 60 |
Keith Roberts | MIA | MIN | TB | CHI | ATL | PHI | CIN | OAK | LAC | SEA | DAL | PIT | DEN | 41 | 6 | 59 |
Alessandro Miglio | MIA | CLE | TB | CHI | NYJ | SF | IND | BUF | NE | SEA | WAS | PIT | DEN | 47 | 5 | 55 |
Dave Larkin | BAL | CLE | CAR | NO | NYJ | SF | IND | OAK | NE | SEA | WAS | DET | KC | 37 | 5 | 65 |
Devin Knotts | MIA | CLE | TB | NO | ATL | PHI | IND | OAK | LAC | SEA | DAL | DET | KC | 44 | 5 | 65 |
Justin Howe | MIA | CLE | TB | NO | ATL | PHI | CIN | BUF | NE | SEA | DAL | DET | DEN | 42 | 5 | 53 |
Stephen Holloway | MIA | CLE | TB | NO | NYJ | PHI | CIN | BUF | NE | HOU | WAS | DET | KC | 44 | 5 | 60 |
Andy Hicks | MIA | CLE | CAR | CHI | NYJ | SF | CIN | BUF | NE | SEA | WAS | DET | DEN | 48 | 4 | 56 |
I almost pulled off the ever elusive back-to-back victories in this pool, but three one point swing games turned the tide in the standings. The Saints-Bears, Chargers-Patriots and the Falcons-Jets game were all decided by 0.5 points, as Las Vegas was dead on for their lines in those three contests. As a result, our Week 8 winner was Matt Bitonti, who landed on the right side of all three of those close calls and won with 10 correct selections. Andrew Garda also went 3-for-3 on those games and finished with nine correct picks, one behind Matt. I missed all three and fell to third place with an 8-5 record as a result. So close. Overall the staff was exactly .500 on the week, getting 143 right and 143 wrong, which kept the staff at 24 games over 50% (1,321-1,297, 50.5%). Miami's big loss to Baltimore cost the staff dearly (19 of 22 picks) as did Seattle (15 picks) not covering the number. We are just about halfway through the year (119 of 256 games played), so let's take a look at what Week 9 looks like.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week.
Road Team: | BUF | BAL | CIN | ATL | DEN | IND | TB | LAR | WAS | ARI | KC | OAK | DET | |
Home Team: | NYJ | TEN | JAC | CAR | PHI | HOU | NO | NYG | SEA | SF | DAL | MIA | GB | |
Favorite: | BUF | TEN | JAC | CAR | PHI | HOU | NO | LAR | SEA | ARI | KC | OAK | DET | |
Point Spread: | -3.5 | -3.5 | -4.5 | -1.5 | -7.5 | -12.5 | -7.5 | -3.5 | -7.5 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | MNF |
Staffer | The Picks | Tot Pts | ||||||||||||
Aaron Rudnicki | NYJ | TEN | CIN | ATL | PHI | IND | TB | LAR | WAS | SF | DAL | OAK | DET | 42 |
Jeff Pasquino | BUF | TEN | JAC | ATL | PHI | HOU | NO | LAR | SEA | ARI | KC | OAK | GB | 59 |
Alessandro Miglio | NYJ | TEN | JAC | CAR | DEN | IND | TB | LAR | WAS | SF | DAL | MIA | GB | 55 |
Andrew Garda | BUF | TEN | JAC | ATL | PHI | HOU | NO | LAR | WAS | ARI | KC | OAK | DET | 57 |
Andy Hicks | NYJ | TEN | JAC | CAR | DEN | HOU | NO | LAR | WAS | ARI | DAL | MIA | GB | 56 |
Bear Heiser | BUF | TEN | JAC | ATL | PHI | HOU | NO | LAR | WAS | SF | KC | OAK | DET | 63 |
Chris Feery | BUF | TEN | JAC | CAR | PHI | IND | NO | NYG | WAS | ARI | KC | OAK | DET | 57 |
Danny Tuccitto | NYJ | BAL | JAC | ATL | DEN | HOU | NO | NYG | WAS | SF | DAL | MIA | GB | 67 |
Dave Larkin | NYJ | TEN | CIN | CAR | DEN | IND | NO | NYG | SEA | SF | DAL | MIA | GB | 65 |
Devin Knotts | NYJ | TEN | JAC | ATL | DEN | IND | TB | LAR | SEA | SF | KC | OAK | GB | 65 |
James Brimacombe | NYJ | TEN | CIN | ATL | DEN | IND | TB | NYG | WAS | ARI | KC | OAK | GB | 57 |
Jason Wood | BUF | TEN | JAC | ATL | PHI | IND | NO | LAR | WAS | SF | KC | OAK | DET | 60 |
Jeff Haseley | NYJ | TEN | JAC | ATL | PHI | IND | NO | NYG | SEA | ARI | KC | MIA | GB | 55 |
John Mamula | BUF | TEN | JAC | CAR | PHI | HOU | TB | LAR | SEA | ARI | DAL | OAK | GB | 60 |
Justin Bonnema | BUF | TEN | JAC | ATL | PHI | IND | NO | NYG | SEA | ARI | DAL | OAK | DET | 60 |
Justin Howe | NYJ | TEN | CIN | CAR | PHI | IND | NO | NYG | SEA | SF | DAL | OAK | DET | 53 |
Keith Roberts | BUF | TEN | JAC | ATL | PHI | HOU | NO | LAR | WAS | SF | KC | OAK | DET | 59 |
Mark Wimer | NYJ | BAL | JAC | ATL | PHI | HOU | TB | LAR | WAS | ARI | KC | OAK | GB | 61 |
Matt Bitonti | BUF | BAL | JAC | ATL | PHI | IND | NO | LAR | SEA | ARI | KC | OAK | DET | 69 |
Phil Alexander | NYJ | TEN | CIN | CAR | PHI | IND | TB | LAR | SEA | ARI | DAL | OAK | GB | 62 |
Stephen Holloway | BUF | TEN | JAC | ATL | PHI | HOU | NO | LAR | SEA | SF | DAL | MIA | GB | 60 |
William Grant | BUF | TEN | JAC | CAR | DEN | HOU | NO | NYG | WAS | ARI | KC | OAK | GB | 61 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
All but one set of picks are in this morning, and two teams are getting most of the votes this week. Both Tennessee (18 of 21) and Jacksonville (17 of 21) were big majority picks, as both teams are coming off of byes and hosting weaker opposition (Baltimore at Tennessee, Cincinnati at Jacksonville). Two teams received 15 votes - the Saints (hosting Tampa Bay) and Oakland (at Miami). Both New Orleans and Oakland look to be in good spots to pick up a victory, so it is just a matter of covering the point spread. The Eagles come in next with 14 votes as Philadelphia host the Broncos, who are a mess right now as they just switched starting quarterbacks to Brock Osweiler. The rest of the picks are a mixed bag without too much of a majority - three teams have 13 votes (Rams, Falcons, Packers), four received 12 (Colts, Cardinals, Chiefs and Bills) and one with 11 (Washington on the road in Seattle). Overall four underdogs were majority choices (Atlanta, Green Bay, Indianapolis and Washington) with just one of those (Packers) at home. Many road teams were chosen (8 of 13) with Oakland (15) the most popular of teams playing away from home. Once again, Week 9 has all the makings of yet another very interesting week in the NFL and for the staff picks.
ODDS AND ENDS
We have reached the midpoint of the season - nearly half of the games have been played (due to byes) - and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com