Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (23) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | JAC | WAS | KC | DET | SEA | ARI | NYJ | OAK | NE | SD | GB | PHI | MIN | |||
Home Team: | TEN | CIN | IND | HOU | NO | CAR | CLE | TB | BUF | DEN | ATL | DAL | CHI | |||
Favorite: | TEN | CIN | KC | HOU | SEA | CAR | NYJ | TB | NE | DEN | ATL | DAL | MIN | |||
Point Spread: | -3.5 | -5.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -0.5 | -2.5 | -0.5 | -4.5 | -6.5 | -2.5 | -4.5 | -4.5 | |||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | YtD | ||||||||||||
Andrew Garda | TEN | CIN | KC | HOU | NO | ARI | NYJ | OAK | NE | DEN | GB | DAL | MIN | 40 | 10 | 57 |
Devin Knotts | TEN | CIN | IND | HOU | NO | CAR | NYJ | TB | NE | DEN | ATL | DAL | CHI | 40 | 9 | 57 |
Justin Howe | JAC | WAS | KC | DET | NO | CAR | NYJ | OAK | NE | DEN | GB | PHI | MIN | 40 | 9 | 68 |
Phil Alexander | TEN | WAS | IND | HOU | NO | CAR | NYJ | OAK | NE | SD | ATL | DAL | MIN | 24 | 9 | 61 |
Jeff Pasquino | JAC | WAS | KC | DET | NO | CAR | NYJ | TB | NE | DEN | GB | PHI | MIN | 33 | 8 | 58 |
Bear Heiser | TEN | CIN | KC | DET | NO | CAR | NYJ | OAK | NE | SD | ATL | DAL | MIN | 26 | 8 | 59 |
Chris Feery | TEN | WAS | KC | DET | NO | ARI | NYJ | OAK | NE | SD | ATL | DAL | MIN | 40 | 8 | 59 |
James Brimacombe | JAC | WAS | IND | HOU | SEA | CAR | NYJ | OAK | NE | DEN | GB | PHI | MIN | 42 | 8 | 66 |
Keith Roberts | TEN | WAS | KC | DET | NO | ARI | CLE | TB | NE | DEN | GB | DAL | MIN | 36 | 8 | 55 |
Mark Wimer | TEN | WAS | KC | HOU | NO | ARI | NYJ | TB | NE | DEN | ATL | PHI | MIN | 27 | 8 | 63 |
Aaron Rudnicki | TEN | CIN | KC | HOU | SEA | ARI | NYJ | OAK | NE | SD | ATL | DAL | MIN | 42 | 7 | 60 |
Dave Larkin | TEN | WAS | IND | HOU | SEA | CAR | NYJ | OAK | NE | SD | ATL | PHI | MIN | 37 | 7 | 61 |
Jason Wood | TEN | WAS | IND | DET | NO | CAR | NYJ | TB | NE | SD | GB | PHI | MIN | 44 | 7 | 61 |
John Mamula | JAC | CIN | KC | HOU | SEA | CAR | NYJ | OAK | NE | SD | ATL | DAL | MIN | 38 | 7 | 57 |
Alessandro Miglio | TEN | CIN | IND | HOU | SEA | CAR | NYJ | TB | NE | SD | ATL | DAL | MIN | 42 | 6 | 50 |
Chris Kuczynski | TEN | CIN | KC | DET | SEA | ARI | NYJ | OAK | NE | SD | ATL | DAL | MIN | 31 | 6 | 55 |
Danny Tuccitto | JAC | CIN | IND | HOU | NO | ARI | CLE | OAK | NE | SD | GB | PHI | CHI | 49 | 6 | 66 |
Jeff Haseley | JAC | WAS | IND | HOU | NO | CAR | CLE | TB | NE | SD | ATL | PHI | CHI | 34 | 6 | 49 |
Matt Bitonti | TEN | CIN | IND | DET | NO | CAR | NYJ | TB | NE | SD | ATL | DAL | MIN | 46 | 6 | 55 |
Clayton Gray | TEN | CIN | KC | DET | SEA | CAR | NYJ | TB | NE | SD | ATL | PHI | MIN | 31 | 5 | 59 |
Justin Bonnema | JAC | CIN | IND | DET | NO | CAR | CLE | OAK | NE | SD | ATL | DAL | MIN | 48 | 5 | 54 |
William Grant | TEN | CIN | KC | DET | SEA | ARI | NYJ | OAK | NE | SD | ATL | PHI | MIN | 42 | 5 | 52 |
Andy Hicks | JAC | WAS | IND | DET | SEA | CAR | CLE | TB | BUF | SD | ATL | DAL | MIN | 31 | 3 | 56 |
This week had just one staff member (Andrew Garda) atop the standings, as he went 10-3 on the week. Thre other staffers (Devin Knotts, Justin Howe, Phil Alexander) hit the 9 win mark, and it should be pointed out that they did it with three teams on a bye, so that makes their 9-4 records all the more impressive. The staff overall had their best week yet, winning the week for the first time all season (161-138, 53.8%) which helped to improve the overall group mark to a 48.5% winning percentage (1,338-1,422). Needless to say, it has been a tough season. Keep in mind that a lot can happen in a day or two, and the picks are due on Wednesday night, so it is not surprising to see the group below the mark overall. Hopefully this winning week marks the turning point for the staff on the way to a winning path for the rest of the season.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | ATL | DAL | PHI | PIT | NYJ | DET | JAC | CAR | NO | TEN | IND | DEN | BUF | ||
Home Team: | TB | CLE | NYG | PIT | MIA | MIN | KC | LAR | SF | SD | GB | OAK | SEA | ||
Favorite: | ATL | DAL | NYG | PIT | MIA | MIN | KC | CAR | NO | SD | GB | OAK | SEA | ||
Point Spread: | -3.5 | -7.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -6.5 | -8.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -5.5 | -6.5 | -0.5 | -6.5 | ||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | YTD | ||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | ATL | DAL | PHI | PIT | MIA | MIN | KC | CAR | NO | SD | GB | DEN | SEA | 33 | 39 |
Aaron Rudnicki | TB | CLE | NYG | BAL | NYJ | DET | KC | CAR | NO | TEN | IND | DEN | SEA | 40 | 40 |
Alessandro Miglio | ATL | DAL | NYG | PIT | MIA | DET | JAC | CAR | NO | TEN | IND | OAK | SEA | 44 | 29 |
Andrew Garda | ATL | DAL | PHI | PIT | MIA | DET | KC | CAR | NO | SD | GB | DEN | SEA | 45 | 35 |
Andy Hicks | TB | CLE | NYG | BAL | NYJ | DET | JAC | LAR | SF | SD | GB | OAK | BUF | 37 | 39 |
Bear Heiser | TB | DAL | NYG | PIT | MIA | DET | JAC | CAR | NO | TEN | GB | OAK | SEA | 32 | 35 |
Chris Feery | ATL | DAL | NYG | PIT | NYJ | DET | KC | CAR | NO | TEN | GB | OAK | SEA | 42 | 38 |
Chris Kuczynski | ATL | DAL | NYG | PIT | MIA | DET | KC | CAR | NO | TEN | GB | OAK | SEA | 30 | 36 |
Clayton Gray | ATL | DAL | NYG | PIT | MIA | DET | KC | LAR | NO | SD | GB | OAK | SEA | 38 | 38 |
Danny Tuccitto | TB | CLE | NYG | PIT | NYJ | MIN | KC | CAR | SF | SD | GB | DEN | SEA | 49 | 44 |
Dave Larkin | ATL | DAL | PHI | BAL | NYJ | MIN | JAC | LAR | NO | TEN | GB | DEN | SEA | 38 | 37 |
Devin Knotts | ATL | DAL | NYG | PIT | MIA | DET | KC | LAR | NO | SD | GB | OAK | SEA | 43 | 34 |
James Brimacombe | TB | CLE | PHI | PIT | NYJ | DET | JAC | CAR | NO | SD | IND | DEN | SEA | 47 | 40 |
Jason Wood | ATL | CLE | PHI | PIT | MIA | DET | JAC | CAR | NO | SD | IND | OAK | SEA | 37 | 35 |
Jeff Haseley | ATL | DAL | PHI | BAL | NYJ | DET | JAC | CAR | SF | SD | GB | DEN | SEA | 46 | 32 |
John Mamula | ATL | CLE | NYG | PIT | MIA | MIN | JAC | CAR | NO | TEN | IND | OAK | SEA | 38 | 37 |
Justin Bonnema | ATL | DAL | NYG | PIT | MIA | DET | JAC | CAR | NO | TEN | GB | OAK | SEA | 48 | 30 |
Justin Howe | TB | DAL | NYG | BAL | NYJ | DET | JAC | CAR | SF | TEN | GB | DEN | BUF | 45 | 44 |
Keith Roberts | ATL | DAL | PHI | BAL | NYJ | DET | JAC | CAR | NO | TEN | GB | DEN | BUF | 41 | 34 |
Mark Wimer | ATL | DAL | PHI | PIT | MIA | MIN | KC | LAR | NO | TEN | GB | DEN | SEA | 37 | 40 |
Matt Bitonti | ATL | DAL | NYG | PIT | NYJ | DET | JAC | CAR | NO | TEN | GB | OAK | SEA | 46 | 34 |
Phil Alexander | ATL | DAL | NYG | BAL | NYJ | DET | JAC | LAR | NO | SD | GB | DEN | SEA | 35 | 39 |
William Grant | ATL | DAL | PHI | PIT | MIA | DET | KC | CAR | NO | SD | GB | OAK | SEA | 42 | 34 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
We are now at the midway point of the regular season, so this should be getting easier - or so we think. Injuries, byes, late news all change what we would like to select, but there are still some consensus picks that rise to the top of the selections each week. With so many games under our belts, we should be getting closer to some collective understanding as to which teams are good and which are bad. Of course, the point spread is the great equalizer, and Las Vegas does their job quite well. This week has the staff loving teams on the road, as 9 of 13 consensus picks are road team this week, including three underdogs. The top pick overall is Seattle at home with 20 out of 23 selections as the Seahawks host the Bills on Monday Night Football. New Orleans (on the road) is next with 19 choices, as the Saints visit the hapless 49ers. Green Bay and Detroit are next with 18 picks, and the Lions are the first underdog that shows up at the top of the selection list. Apparently the staff thinks Detroit can cover the 6.5 point head start that Las Vegas is giving them in Minnesota, which has proven to be a very tough place to play. Three teams were chosen 17 of 23 times (Atlanta, Dallas, Carolina) - all road favorites. Pittsburgh (at Baltimore was just one pick behind with 16 selections. The Giants (at home, 14 picks) and Jacksonville (on the road at Kansas City, chosen 13 times and getting 8.5 points) round out the majority picks. Three games are split nearly dead even - Miami / Jets, San Diego / Tennessee and Oakland / Denver. Week 9 looks to be yet another interesting week, so let's see how it all plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
We are at the midpoint of the season, and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.