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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (23) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | ARI | CHI | WAS | NE | NYJ | PHI | HOU | TEN | ATL | BUF | SD | CIN | NYG | TB | |||
Home Team: | SF | IND | BAL | CLE | PIT | DET | MIN | MIA | DEN | LAR | OAK | DAL | GB | CAR | |||
Favorite: | ARI | IND | BAL | NE | PIT | PHI | MIN | MIA | DEN | LAR | OAK | CIN | GB | CAR | |||
Point Spread: | -3.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -10.5 | -6.5 | -2.5 | -5.5 | -3.5 | -6.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -0.5 | -6.5 | -5.5 | |||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | YtD | |||||||||||||
Mark Wimer | ARI | IND | BAL | NE | PIT | PHI | MIN | TEN | ATL | BUF | OAK | CIN | GB | CAR | 35 | 9 | 40 |
Chris Feery | ARI | CHI | WAS | NE | PIT | PHI | MIN | TEN | DEN | BUF | OAK | DAL | NYG | TB | 44 | 9 | 38 |
Devin Knotts | ARI | IND | WAS | NE | PIT | DET | MIN | MIA | ATL | LAR | OAK | DAL | NYG | CAR | 45 | 9 | 34 |
Aaron Rudnicki | SF | IND | WAS | NE | PIT | PHI | MIN | TEN | DEN | BUF | OAK | CIN | GB | TB | 46 | 9 | 40 |
Justin Bonnema | ARI | CHI | WAS | CLE | PIT | PHI | MIN | TEN | ATL | BUF | OAK | DAL | GB | CAR | 46 | 9 | 30 |
Dave Larkin | ARI | IND | WAS | NE | PIT | DET | MIN | MIA | DEN | LAR | SD | CIN | GB | CAR | 49 | 9 | 37 |
Justin Howe | SF | CHI | WAS | CLE | PIT | PHI | MIN | TEN | ATL | BUF | SD | CIN | GB | TB | 49 | 9 | 44 |
Danny Tuccitto | SF | CHI | WAS | CLE | PIT | DET | MIN | TEN | DEN | LAR | SD | DAL | GB | CAR | 49 | 8 | 44 |
Jeff Pasquino | ARI | CHI | BAL | NE | PIT | PHI | MIN | MIA | DEN | BUF | SD | CIN | GB | CAR | 50 | 7 | 39 |
Bear Heiser | SF | CHI | WAS | NE | PIT | PHI | MIN | TEN | DEN | BUF | OAK | CIN | GB | CAR | 52 | 7 | 35 |
Chris Kuczynski | SF | IND | BAL | NE | PIT | PHI | MIN | TEN | DEN | BUF | OAK | CIN | GB | CAR | 39 | 7 | 36 |
James Brimacombe | ARI | CHI | WAS | NE | NYJ | PHI | HOU | TEN | ATL | BUF | OAK | CIN | GB | CAR | 47 | 7 | 40 |
Jason Wood | ARI | IND | BAL | NE | PIT | PHI | MIN | MIA | ATL | BUF | OAK | CIN | NYG | CAR | 41 | 7 | 35 |
John Mamula | ARI | CHI | BAL | NE | PIT | DET | MIN | MIA | ATL | BUF | OAK | CIN | NYG | CAR | 52 | 7 | 37 |
Matt Bitonti | SF | IND | BAL | CLE | PIT | PHI | MIN | TEN | ATL | LAR | OAK | CIN | GB | TB | 48 | 7 | 34 |
Andrew Garda | ARI | IND | BAL | NE | PIT | PHI | MIN | MIA | DEN | LAR | OAK | CIN | GB | CAR | 40 | 6 | 35 |
Keith Roberts | ARI | CHI | BAL | NE | PIT | PHI | HOU | TEN | ATL | LAR | OAK | CIN | GB | CAR | 45 | 6 | 34 |
Phil Alexande | SF | CHI | BAL | NE | PIT | PHI | MIN | MIA | ATL | LAR | SD | CIN | GB | CAR | 54 | 6 | 39 |
Andy Hicks | SF | CHI | BAL | CLE | NYJ | PHI | MIN | TEN | DEN | LAR | SD | DAL | GB | CAR | 41 | 5 | 39 |
Clayton Gray | SF | CHI | BAL | NE | PIT | PHI | MIN | TEN | DEN | LAR | OAK | CIN | GB | CAR | 47 | 5 | 38 |
Jeff Haseley | SF | IND | BAL | NE | PIT | PHI | MIN | MIA | DEN | LAR | OAK | CIN | NYG | TB | 48 | 5 | 32 |
William Grant | SF | CHI | BAL | CLE | PIT | PHI | MIN | MIA | DEN | BUF | OAK | CIN | GB | TB | 41 | 5 | 34 |
Alessandro Miglio | SF | IND | BAL | CLE | PIT | PHI | HOU | MIA | ATL | LAR | OAK | CIN | NYG | CAR | 50 | 3 | 29 |
Once again, the winning score was slightly lower this week (nine wins), which created a logjam at the top of the leaderboard. Seven staff members all went 9-5 for the week, so the winner came down to the tiebreaker for total points in the Tampa Bay-Carolina Monday Night Football contest. I was just one pick off the pace and the only staffer to finish at 8-6, but most of the staff had solid weeks with six batting .500 (7-7) and nearly everyone else just one or two picks below 50%. As a whole, the staff finally had a reasonable week with the group finishing at exactly 50% (161-161), which raised the group average slightly to 47.6% correct on the year (843-928). The four games that cost the staff the most were losses by the Eagles (19 incorrect picks out of 23) and Bengals (18), along with the Panthers (17) on Monday Night Football and the Raiders (17) not covering the 3.5 points with their victory over the Chargers by a field goal. It has been a rough five weeks, but the slight uptick in success may indicate that the group is getting better. Two more teams are on a bye this week (Minnesota, Tampa Bay), so let's see if five weeks of information leads to better picks in Week 6.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | DEN | SF | CLE | JAC | CAR | PHI | PIT | LAR | BAL | CIN | KC | DAL | ATL | IND | NYJ | ||
Home Team: | SD | BUF | TEN | CHI | NO | WAS | MIA | DET | NYG | NE | OAK | GB | SEA | HOU | ARI | ||
Favorite: | DEN | BUF | TEN | CHI | CAR | PHI | PIT | DET | NYG | NE | OAK | GB | SEA | HOU | ARI | ||
Point Spread: | -2.5 | -7.5 | -6.5 | -1.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -7.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -8.5 | -1.5 | -4.5 | -6.5 | -3.5 | -7.5 | ||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | YtD | ||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | DEN | BUF | TEN | JAC | CAR | PHI | PIT | LAR | BAL | NE | KC | GB | SEA | HOU | ARI | 44 | 39 |
Aaron Rudnicki | SD | SF | TEN | CHI | NO | PHI | PIT | DET | NYG | NE | OAK | GB | SEA | IND | NYJ | 44 | 40 |
Alessandro Miglio | DEN | SF | TEN | CHI | NO | WAS | MIA | DET | NYG | CIN | OAK | GB | ATL | HOU | NYJ | 48 | 29 |
Andrew Garda | DEN | BUF | CLE | JAC | NO | PHI | PIT | DET | BAL | NE | OAK | GB | SEA | HOU | NYJ | 40 | 35 |
Andy Hicks | DEN | SF | TEN | CHI | NO | WAS | PIT | DET | NYG | CIN | OAK | DAL | ATL | IND | NYJ | 38 | 39 |
Bear Heiser | DEN | BUF | TEN | JAC | NO | PHI | PIT | DET | NYG | NE | OAK | DAL | SEA | IND | ARI | 46 | 35 |
Chris Feery | DEN | SF | TEN | JAC | NO | PHI | PIT | DET | NYG | CIN | OAK | DAL | ATL | IND | ARI | 48 | 38 |
Chris Kuczynski | DEN | SF | TEN | CHI | NO | PHI | PIT | DET | NYG | NE | OAK | GB | SEA | HOU | ARI | 48 | 36 |
Clayton Gray | DEN | SF | TEN | JAC | NO | WAS | PIT | LAR | NYG | NE | OAK | DAL | ATL | HOU | NYJ | 47 | 38 |
Danny Tuccitto | SD | SF | TEN | CHI | NO | WAS | MIA | DET | NYG | CIN | OAK | DAL | SEA | IND | NYJ | 49 | 44 |
Dave Larkin | DEN | SF | TEN | CHI | NO | WAS | PIT | DET | NYG | NE | KC | GB | SEA | IND | NYJ | 42 | 37 |
Devin Knotts | DEN | BUF | TEN | JAC | NO | PHI | MIA | LAR | NYG | NE | OAK | GB | SEA | IND | ARI | 41 | 34 |
James Brimacombe | DEN | BUF | TEN | JAC | NO | WAS | PIT | DET | NYG | NE | OAK | GB | SEA | HOU | ARI | 47 | 40 |
Jason Wood | SD | SF | CLE | JAC | CAR | PHI | PIT | DET | NYG | NE | OAK | GB | SEA | IND | ARI | 51 | 35 |
Jeff Haseley | DEN | SF | CLE | CHI | NO | PHI | MIA | LAR | BAL | CIN | KC | GB | SEA | HOU | ARI | 50 | 32 |
John Mamula | DEN | BUF | TEN | JAC | CAR | PHI | PIT | DET | NYG | NE | KC | GB | ATL | HOU | NYJ | 35 | 37 |
Justin Bonnema | SD | BUF | CLE | JAC | NO | PHI | PIT | DET | NYG | NE | OAK | GB | SEA | IND | ARI | 48 | 30 |
Justin Howe | DEN | BUF | CLE | CHI | NO | WAS | MIA | DET | BAL | CIN | OAK | DAL | ATL | HOU | NYJ | 46 | 44 |
Keith Roberts | DEN | BUF | TEN | CHI | NO | PHI | PIT | LAR | NYG | NE | OAK | DAL | ATL | IND | ARI | 46 | 34 |
Mark Wimer | DEN | BUF | TEN | CHI | NO | PHI | PIT | DET | NYG | NE | KC | GB | ATL | IND | ARI | 35 | 40 |
Matt Bitonti | SD | BUF | TEN | JAC | CAR | PHI | PIT | DET | NYG | NE | OAK | GB | ATL | IND | NYJ | 46 | 34 |
Phil Alexander | DEN | BUF | CLE | CHI | CAR | WAS | MIA | DET | NYG | CIN | KC | GB | SEA | HOU | NYJ | 49 | 39 |
William Grant | DEN | BUF | TEN | CHI | CAR | PHI | PIT | LAR | NYG | NE | OAK | GB | ATL | IND | ARI | 44 | 34 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
With five weeks now behind us, we should be getting closer to some collective understanding as to which teams are good and which are bad. Of course, the point spread is the great equalizer, and Las Vegas does their job quite well. There is a little less agreement amongst the staff with their selections for Week 6, as only two teams received 18 or more picks this week. The Giants led the group with 19 out of 23 choices, as New York hosts the Ravens and are favored by just 2.5 points. The line has moved to -3 in most Las Vegas locations, so this may be the group playing the number a little, but I personally think that this choice may hurt the group (and I did pick Baltimore). I explained that choice in more detail in For the Win, but let's just say that Baltimore has a lot of incentive to put up some offense and run the ball hard this week. Denver, a road favorite and one of only four road teams that were majority picks this week comes in as the second-most popular choice with 18 of 23 selections from the group. This is another tricky pick with the Broncos heading to San Diego on Thursday, marking a short week for a divisional rivalry, and also there are questions if Trevor Siemian will be starting for Denver. Similar to the Giants pick, this game is Denver -3 in most Las Vegas locations, so taking Denver -2.5 here may be playing the number once again. Five teams come in next with 17 picks, including four home teams (Tennessee, Detroit, Oakland, New Orleans) including one of two underdog majority picks with the Saints (the Colts are the other underdog, but barely make a majority with 13 of 23 choices). New England and Green Bay tied with 16 picks, while the Eagles (15) come in next with a trip to Washington that has Philadelphia a slight road favorite. The other five contests are too close to call with just 12 or 13 picks to one side, so the group is divided on Buffalo-San Francisco, Seattle-Atlanta, Indianapolis-Houston, Chicago-Jacksonville and Arizona-Jets. Week 6 looks to be yet another interesting week, so let's see how it all plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
We are only about a third of the way into the season, and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.