Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (23) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | MIA | IND | DET | BUF | CLE | OAK | CAR | SEA | TEN | DEN | LAR | NO | DAL | KC | NYG | |||
Home Team: | CIN | JAC | CHI | NE | WAS | BAL | ATL | NYJ | HOU | TB | ARI | SD | SF | PIT | MIN | |||
Favorite: | CIN | IND | DET | NE | WAS | BAL | CAR | SEA | HOU | DEN | ARI | SD | DAL | PIT | MIN | |||
Point Spread: | -7.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -4.5 | -9.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -6.5 | -3.5 | -8.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -5.5 | -3.5 | |||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | YtD | ||||||||||||||
James Brimacombe | CIN | IND | DET | BUF | WAS | OAK | CAR | SEA | HOU | DEN | ARI | NO | DAL | PIT | MIN | 44 | 11 | 33 |
Andy Hicks | CIN | JAC | CHI | NE | WAS | BAL | ATL | NYJ | HOU | DEN | LAR | SD | SF | PIT | MIN | 38 | 10 | 34 |
Clayton Gray | CIN | JAC | DET | NE | WAS | OAK | CAR | SEA | HOU | DEN | LAR | NO | SF | KC | MIN | 39 | 10 | 33 |
Bear Heiser | CIN | IND | DET | BUF | CLE | OAK | CAR | SEA | TEN | DEN | ARI | NO | DAL | PIT | MIN | 32 | 9 | 28 |
Mark Wimer | CIN | JAC | DET | NE | WAS | BAL | CAR | SEA | HOU | DEN | ARI | SD | DAL | PIT | MIN | 28 | 9 | 31 |
Chris Kuczynski | MIA | IND | DET | NE | CLE | OAK | CAR | SEA | HOU | DEN | LAR | NO | DAL | KC | MIN | 38 | 8 | 29 |
Devin Knotts | MIA | IND | DET | NE | WAS | BAL | CAR | SEA | HOU | DEN | ARI | NO | DAL | PIT | MIN | 44 | 8 | 25 |
Phil Alexander | CIN | IND | DET | BUF | WAS | OAK | ATL | SEA | TEN | TB | ARI | SD | DAL | PIT | NYG | 40 | 8 | 33 |
William Grant | MIA | IND | DET | NE | CLE | OAK | CAR | SEA | HOU | DEN | LAR | SD | DAL | PIT | MIN | 40 | 8 | 29 |
Jeff Pasquino | CIN | JAC | DET | NE | CLE | OAK | CAR | NYJ | HOU | DEN | ARI | SD | DAL | KC | MIN | 41 | 7 | 32 |
Aaron Rudnick | MIA | IND | DET | BUF | CLE | OAK | CAR | SEA | HOU | DEN | ARI | SD | DAL | PIT | NYG | 40 | 7 | 31 |
Andrew Garda | MIA | IND | DET | NE | CLE | BAL | CAR | NYJ | HOU | DEN | LAR | NO | DAL | PIT | MIN | 40 | 7 | 29 |
Danny Tuccitto | MIA | IND | DET | BUF | CLE | BAL | CAR | NYJ | HOU | DEN | LAR | NO | DAL | PIT | NYG | 49 | 7 | 36 |
Justin Howe | MIA | JAC | DET | BUF | CLE | OAK | ATL | NYJ | TEN | DEN | LAR | NO | SF | KC | NYG | 44 | 7 | 35 |
Keith Roberts | MIA | IND | DET | BUF | CLE | BAL | CAR | NYJ | HOU | DEN | ARI | NO | DAL | PIT | MIN | 48 | 7 | 28 |
Alex Miglio | MIA | IND | DET | BUF | CLE | BAL | CAR | SEA | TEN | DEN | LAR | SD | DAL | KC | MIN | 44 | 6 | 26 |
Jason Wood | MIA | JAC | DET | NE | WAS | OAK | CAR | SEA | TEN | TB | ARI | NO | DAL | KC | NYG | 44 | 6 | 28 |
Matt Bitonti | CIN | IND | DET | NE | CLE | OAK | CAR | SEA | TEN | TB | LAR | NO | DAL | KC | NYG | 42 | 6 | 27 |
Jeff Haseley | CIN | IND | DET | NE | CLE | OAK | CAR | NYJ | HOU | DEN | ARI | SD | SF | KC | MIN | 43 | 5 | 27 |
John Mamula | MIA | IND | DET | NE | CLE | BAL | CAR | NYJ | HOU | DEN | ARI | SD | DAL | PIT | MIN | 37 | 5 | 30 |
Justin Bonnema | MIA | JAC | DET | NE | CLE | BAL | CAR | SEA | TEN | TB | ARI | SD | DAL | PIT | MIN | 42 | 5 | 21 |
Chris Feery | MIA | JAC | DET | NE | CLE | OAK | CAR | NYJ | TEN | DEN | ARI | SD | DAL | KC | NYG | 40 | 4 | 29 |
Dave Larkin | MIA | IND | DET | NE | CLE | BAL | ATL | NYJ | HOU | TB | LAR | SD | SF | PIT | NYG | 41 | 4 | 28 |
Once again, the winning score was 11 this week, but two things were different in Week 4. First, there were only 15 games to choose thanks the Eagles and Green Bay taking the week off, so 11-4 is certainly more impressive than 11-5. Second, only one staff member pulled off the feat, so congratulations go to James Brimacombe for the big win. Two staff members (Andy Hicks, Clayton Gray) tied for second with 10 correct calls, while two more (Bear Heiser, Mark Wimer) finished at 9-6. Four more managed to have a winning week at 8-7. Unfortunately for the rest of the group, the good news ends there as the majority (14 of 23) had sub-.500 weeks. Overall the staff was once again below 50%, marking the fourth week in a row that this has happened. Week 4 came in at 153-192 overall (44.3%), lowering an already rough group win rate to 45.5% (649-777). This just goes to show how tough it has been to make good picks, and it is even harder with picks due Wednesday night. Once again several upsets hurt the group, as most of the majority picks all fell apart. Nearly everyone was on Detroit (22 incorrect picks), and Carolina (19) was not far behind. Four other majority picks failed to cover the spread (Cleveland (16), Indianapolis (15), New England (15) and Miami (14)), so a losing week for the entire group as a whole is not surprising. Four more teams are on a bye this week (Kansas City, Seattle, Jacksonville and New Orleans), so let's see if four weeks of information leads to better picks in Week 5.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | ARI | CHI | WAS | NE | NYJ | PHI | HOU | TEN | ATL | BUF | SD | CIN | NYG | TB | ||
Home Team: | SF | IND | BAL | CLE | PIT | DET | MIN | MIA | DEN | LAR | OAK | DAL | GB | CAR | ||
Favorite: | ARI | IND | BAL | NE | PIT | PHI | MIN | MIA | DEN | LAR | OAK | CIN | GB | CAR | ||
Point Spread: | -3.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -10.5 | -6.5 | -2.5 | -5.5 | -3.5 | -6.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -0.5 | -6.5 | -5.5 | ||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | YTD | |||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | ARI | CHI | BAL | NE | PIT | PHI | MIN | MIA | DEN | BUF | SD | CIN | GB | CAR | 50 | 32 |
Aaron Rudnick | SF | IND | WAS | NE | PIT | PHI | MIN | TEN | DEN | BUF | OAK | CIN | GB | TB | 46 | 31 |
Alex Miglio | SF | IND | BAL | CLE | PIT | PHI | HOU | MIA | ATL | LAR | OAK | CIN | NYG | CAR | 50 | 26 |
Andrew Garda | ARI | IND | BAL | NE | PIT | PHI | MIN | MIA | DEN | LAR | OAK | CIN | GB | CAR | 40 | 29 |
Andy Hicks | SF | CHI | BAL | CLE | NYJ | PHI | MIN | TEN | DEN | LAR | SD | DAL | GB | CAR | 41 | 34 |
Bear Heiser | SF | CHI | WAS | NE | PIT | PHI | MIN | TEN | DEN | BUF | OAK | CIN | GB | CAR | 52 | 28 |
Chris Feery | ARI | CHI | WAS | NE | PIT | PHI | MIN | TEN | DEN | BUF | OAK | DAL | NYG | TB | 44 | 29 |
Chris Kuczynski | SF | IND | BAL | NE | PIT | PHI | MIN | TEN | DEN | BUF | OAK | CIN | GB | CAR | 39 | 29 |
Clayton Gray | SF | CHI | BAL | NE | PIT | PHI | MIN | TEN | DEN | LAR | OAK | CIN | GB | CAR | 47 | 33 |
Danny Tuccitto | SF | CHI | WAS | CLE | PIT | DET | MIN | TEN | DEN | LAR | SD | DAL | GB | CAR | 49 | 36 |
Dave Larkin | ARI | IND | WAS | NE | PIT | DET | MIN | MIA | DEN | LAR | SD | CIN | GB | CAR | 49 | 28 |
Devin Knotts | ARI | IND | WAS | NE | PIT | DET | MIN | MIA | ATL | LAR | OAK | DAL | NYG | CAR | 45 | 25 |
James Brimacombe | ARI | CHI | WAS | NE | NYJ | PHI | HOU | TEN | ATL | BUF | OAK | CIN | GB | CAR | 47 | 33 |
Jason Wood | ARI | IND | BAL | NE | PIT | PHI | MIN | MIA | ATL | BUF | OAK | CIN | NYG | CAR | 41 | 28 |
Jeff Haseley | SF | IND | BAL | NE | PIT | PHI | MIN | MIA | DEN | LAR | OAK | CIN | NYG | TB | 48 | 27 |
John Mamula | ARI | CHI | BAL | NE | PIT | DET | MIN | MIA | ATL | BUF | OAK | CIN | NYG | CAR | 52 | 30 |
Justin Bonnema | ARI | CHI | WAS | CLE | PIT | PHI | MIN | TEN | ATL | BUF | OAK | DAL | GB | CAR | 46 | 21 |
Justin Howe | SF | CHI | WAS | CLE | PIT | PHI | MIN | TEN | ATL | BUF | SD | CIN | GB | TB | 49 | 35 |
Keith Roberts | ARI | CHI | BAL | NE | PIT | PHI | HOU | TEN | ATL | LAR | OAK | CIN | GB | CAR | 45 | 28 |
Mark Wimer | ARI | IND | BAL | NE | PIT | PHI | MIN | TEN | ATL | BUF | OAK | CIN | GB | CAR | 35 | 31 |
Matt Bitonti | SF | IND | BAL | CLE | PIT | PHI | MIN | TEN | ATL | LAR | OAK | CIN | GB | TB | 48 | 27 |
Phil Alexander | SF | CHI | BAL | NE | PIT | PHI | MIN | MIA | ATL | LAR | SD | CIN | GB | CAR | 54 | 33 |
William Grant | SF | CHI | BAL | CLE | PIT | PHI | MIN | MIA | DEN | BUF | OAK | CIN | GB | TB | 41 | 29 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
With four weeks now behind us, we should be getting closer to some collective understanding as to which teams are good and which are bad. Of course, the point spread is the great equalizer, and Las Vegas does their job quite well. There is a little bit more consensus with the staff picks here in Week 5, as four teams received 18 or more picks. Pittsburgh (21 of 23) leads the way as the site we use listed the Steelers as just -6.5 at home against the Jets. Many Vegas lines have it as 7 or 7.5 points, so picking Pittsburgh to win by less than a touchdown makes a ton of sense, especially after that offensive explosion against the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Second place goes to Minnesota (20), another team that impressed at home last week on a national broadcast. Two road teams come next with the Eagles (19) at Detroit and Cincinnati (18) at Dallas, with the Bengals barely listed as a favorite. Rounding out the majority picks is a three-way tie with 17 selections of Oakland, Green Bay and Carolina. New England ends the big majority list with 16 of 23 staff taking the Patriots to win big over Cleveland on the road.
Lots of uncertainty remains with the rest of the picks with Baltimore getting 14 picks, but five games pretty close calls. Chicago and Tennessee took 13 votes as slight road underdogs, while three other teams barely had a majority with 12 picks. Two of the three were underdogs, including the 49ers and the Bills. Week 5 looks to be yet another interesting week, so let's see how this plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
It's still quite early in the season, and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.