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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (22) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from this week.
Road Team: | LAR | BAL | ATL | CLE | NYG | TB | PIT | MIA | NO | DEN | HOU | SEA | CIN | KC | OAK | DAL | |||
Home Team: | SF | JAC | DET | IND | PHI | MIN | CHI | NYJ | CAR | BUF | NE | TEN | GB | KC | WAS | ARI | |||
Favorite: | LAR | BAL | ATL | IND | PHI | MIN | PIT | MIA | CAR | DEN | NE | TEN | GB | KC | OAK | DAL | |||
Point Spread: | -2.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -1.5 | -4.5 | -2.5 | -7.5 | -6.5 | -5.5 | -2.5 | -13.5 | -2.5 | -9.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | MNF | Last | Year to |
Staffer | Last Week's Picks | Tot Pts | Week | Date | |||||||||||||||
Danny Tuccitto | SF | JAC | DET | IND | PHI | TB | CHI | NYJ | CAR | BUF | HOU | TEN | CIN | LAC | WAS | ARI | 49 | 10 | 24 |
Dave Larkin | LAR | BAL | DET | CLE | PHI | MIN | PIT | NYJ | NO | DEN | HOU | TEN | GB | KC | WAS | DAL | 41 | 8 | 26 |
Phil Alexander | SF | BAL | DET | CLE | NYG | MIN | CHI | MIA | NO | BUF | NE | SEA | GB | KC | WAS | ARI | 46 | 8 | 25 |
Aaron Rudnicki | LAR | JAC | ATL | IND | NYG | TB | PIT | MIA | NO | DEN | NE | SEA | GB | LAC | WAS | DAL | 42 | 7 | 19 |
Alessandro Miglio | LAR | BAL | DET | IND | PHI | TB | CHI | NYJ | NO | DEN | HOU | SEA | GB | KC | OAK | DAL | 48 | 7 | 22 |
Andy Hicks | LAR | JAC | DET | CLE | PHI | TB | CHI | MIA | NO | DEN | HOU | SEA | CIN | KC | OAK | DAL | 44 | 7 | 24 |
Chris Feery | LAR | BAL | DET | CLE | NYG | TB | CHI | MIA | NO | DEN | NE | TEN | CIN | KC | WAS | ARI | 43 | 7 | 21 |
Devin Knotts | LAR | JAC | DET | CLE | PHI | TB | PIT | NYJ | NO | DEN | HOU | TEN | CIN | LAC | OAK | DAL | 44 | 7 | 27 |
Jason Wood | LAR | JAC | ATL | CLE | PHI | TB | PIT | MIA | NO | DEN | HOU | TEN | GB | KC | OAK | DAL | 48 | 7 | 22 |
John Mamula | SF | JAC | ATL | IND | PHI | TB | PIT | MIA | CAR | DEN | NE | TEN | GB | KC | OAK | DAL | 44 | 7 | 24 |
Justin Howe | SF | JAC | DET | IND | PHI | MIN | CHI | MIA | CAR | DEN | NE | SEA | CIN | LAC | WAS | ARI | 47 | 7 | 20 |
Mark Wimer | LAR | BAL | ATL | CLE | PHI | MIN | PIT | MIA | NO | DEN | HOU | TEN | GB | LAC | WAS | DAL | 33 | 7 | 25 |
William Grant | SF | BAL | ATL | IND | PHI | TB | PIT | NYJ | NO | DEN | HOU | SEA | GB | KC | OAK | ARI | 48 | 7 | 22 |
Jeff Pasquino | LAR | JAC | ATL | CLE | PHI | MIN | PIT | MIA | CAR | DEN | NE | TEN | GB | KC | OAK | DAL | 40 | 6 | 18 |
Bear Heiser | LAR | BAL | ATL | IND | PHI | TB | PIT | NYJ | NO | DEN | NE | SEA | GB | KC | OAK | DAL | 38 | 6 | 23 |
Jeff Haseley | SF | BAL | DET | IND | PHI | MIN | PIT | NYJ | CAR | DEN | NE | SEA | GB | KC | WAS | ARI | 45 | 6 | 20 |
Justin Bonnema | LAR | JAC | DET | IND | PHI | TB | PIT | MIA | NO | DEN | NE | SEA | GB | KC | WAS | DAL | 49 | 6 | 23 |
Andrew Garda | LAR | BAL | ATL | CLE | PHI | TB | PIT | MIA | CAR | DEN | NE | TEN | GB | KC | OAK | DAL | 50 | 4 | 20 |
Matt Bitonti | LAR | BAL | ATL | CLE | PHI | TB | PIT | MIA | NO | DEN | NE | TEN | GB | KC | OAK | ARI | 52 | 4 | 21 |
Steven Holloway | LAR | BAL | DET | CLE | PHI | TB | PIT | NYJ | CAR | DEN | HOU | SEA | CIN | LAC | OAK | DAL | 45 | 4 | 22 |
James Brimacombe | LAR | BAL | DET | CLE | PHI | TB | PIT | MIA | NO | DEN | NE | SEA | GB | LAC | WAS | DAL | 44 | 3 | 16 |
Keith Roberts | LAR | BAL | DET | IND | PHI | TB | PIT | MIA | CAR | DEN | NE | TEN | GB | LAC | OAK | DAL | 44 | 3 | 19 |
The first week is usually one of the hardest, but Weeks 2 and 3 have actually been tough on the staff. In Week 2, the staff was just under 50% correct (172-180, 48.9%), but Week 3 was about as close to a train wreck as you might imagine with so many upsets across the NFL. Only one staff member, Danny Tuccitto, finished with a winning week as he went 10-6 for Week 3. Two others - Dave Larkin and Phil Alexander - managed to get out of a rough week at 8-8. The rest of the staff clearly had a tough time, and the group overall had probably their worst week ever (138-214, 39.2%). That challenging week moved the group below 50% for the season, as you might expect (483-551, 46.7%). As I stated last week, this is a marathon, not a sprint - but a good week is what the entire staff could use and is targeting for Week 4.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week.
Road Team: | CHI | NO | TEN | CIN | DET | BUF | PIT | LAR | JAC | CAR | PHI | SF | NYG | OAK | IND | WAS | |
Home Team: | GB | MIA | HOU | CLE | MIN | ATL | BAL | DAL | NYJ | NE | LAC | ARI | TB | DEN | SEA | KC | |
Favorite: | GB | NO | TEN | CIN | MIN | ATL | PIT | DAL | JAC | NE | LAC | ARI | TB | DEN | SEA | KC | |
Point Spread: | -7.5 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -8.5 | -2.5 | -8.5 | -3.5 | -8.5 | -0.5 | -7.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -13.5 | -6.5 | MNF |
Staffer | The Picks | Tot Pts | |||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | GB | NO | HOU | CLE | MIN | ATL | PIT | DAL | JAC | NE | PHI | ARI | TB | OAK | SEA | KC | 47 |
Aaron Rudnick | CHI | MIA | TEN | CLE | MIN | BUF | PIT | LAR | JAC | NE | PHI | SF | NYG | DEN | SEA | KC | 45 |
Alessandro Mi | GB | NO | HOU | CIN | MIN | ATL | PIT | LAR | JAC | NE | LAC | SF | TB | DEN | IND | WAS | 49 |
Andrew Garda | CHI | NO | TEN | CLE | MIN | ATL | PIT | DAL | JAC | NE | PHI | ARI | TB | DEN | IND | KC | 50 |
Andy Hicks | GB | MIA | HOU | CLE | MIN | BUF | BAL | LAR | NYJ | CAR | LAC | SF | TB | DEN | IND | KC | 51 |
Bear Heiser | CHI | NO | TEN | CIN | MIN | ATL | BAL | LAR | NYJ | NE | PHI | SF | TB | DEN | SEA | KC | 46 |
Chris Feery | CHI | NO | TEN | CIN | DET | ATL | PIT | LAR | NYJ | NE | LAC | ARI | NYG | DEN | IND | WAS | 48 |
Danny Tuccitt | GB | MIA | HOU | CLE | MIN | BUF | BAL | LAR | NYJ | CAR | PHI | SF | TB | OAK | IND | KC | 49 |
Dave Larkin | CHI | MIA | TEN | CIN | MIN | BUF | BAL | LAR | NYJ | NE | LAC | SF | TB | DEN | IND | WAS | 44 |
Devin Knotts | GB | MIA | TEN | CLE | DET | ATL | PIT | DAL | JAC | NE | LAC | SF | NYG | DEN | IND | KC | 44 |
James Brimaco | GB | MIA | HOU | CIN | MIN | ATL | PIT | LAR | JAC | NE | PHI | SF | TB | DEN | SEA | WAS | 47 |
Jason Wood | GB | MIA | TEN | CIN | MIN | BUF | BAL | LAR | JAC | NE | PHI | SF | TB | OAK | SEA | KC | 49 |
Jeff Haseley | GB | MIA | HOU | CIN | MIN | BUF | BAL | LAR | NYJ | NE | PHI | SF | TB | DEN | IND | KC | 47 |
John Mamula | GB | NO | TEN | CIN | MIN | ATL | PIT | LAR | JAC | NE | LAC | SF | TB | DEN | SEA | KC | 39 |
Justin Bonnem | GB | NO | HOU | CIN | DET | ATL | PIT | DAL | JAC | NE | PHI | SF | NYG | DEN | SEA | WAS | 49 |
Justin Howe | CHI | MIA | TEN | CIN | DET | BUF | BAL | LAR | NYJ | CAR | LAC | SF | TB | DEN | IND | KC | 47 |
Keith Roberts | GB | NO | TEN | CIN | DET | ATL | PIT | LAR | JAC | NE | PHI | ARI | TB | DEN | SEA | WAS | 45 |
Mark Wimer | GB | NO | HOU | CIN | DET | ATL | PIT | LAR | JAC | NE | PHI | ARI | TB | OAK | IND | KC | 52 |
Matt Bitonti | GB | NO | HOU | CIN | MIN | BUF | PIT | LAR | NYJ | CAR | PHI | ARI | NYG | OAK | IND | KC | 52 |
Phil Alexande | GB | NO | TEN | CLE | DET | ATL | BAL | DAL | NYJ | NE | PHI | SF | NYG | DEN | SEA | KC | 45 |
Stephen Holloway | GB | MIA | HOU | CLE | DET | BUF | PIT | LAR | JAC | NE | LAC | SF | NYG | OAK | IND | KC | 42 |
William Grant | SF | BAL | ATL | IND | PHI | TB | PIT | NYJ | NO | DEN | HOU | SEA | GB | KC | OAK | ARI | 48 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
I do not think we are getting close to consensus any time soon. No team was picked more than 17 times, as both the Patriots (hosting Carolina) and the Rams (at Dallas) both received the top amount of votes from the 22 staffers. Those two choices are at the opposite of the spectrum, as New England is a huge favorite at over a touchdown at home while the Rams are big underdogs, getting more than a touchdown on the road at the Cowboys. San Francisco comes in next with 16 picks, and the 49ers are one of four underdogs that the staff are on this week along with the Rams, Chargers (14 of 22 picks) and Colts (13). Six road teams were chosen by the majority of the staff, including the Rams, 49er and Colts along with Pittsburgh (14) at Baltimore, Cincinnati (13) at Cleveland and Jacksonville (12) at the Jets. Two games were dead heats as both the Saints-Dolphins and Tennessee-Houston clashes had 11 picks on each side. Once again, it should be very interesting to see how it plays out in Week 4.
ODDS AND ENDS
It's only the fourth week of the season, and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com